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Despite what the talking heads say, it’s never “a stock picker’s market.” As a group, pickers of stocks are always market laggards.

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Driving Prices

IN 2020, ELECTRIC car maker Lucid Motors brought in revenue of $4 million. Five years later, sales had risen impressively, to more than $1 billion. In 2025 alone, sales grew 68%. That sounds like a success story, and through that lens, it is. And yet, over that same period, the company’s stock dropped more than 89%. What happened? A better question is: What didn’t happen? Despite growing sales, the company has struggled to turn a profit. On sales of $1.3 billion last year, Lucid posted a loss of $3.8 billion. It’s experienced production problems and management turnover. It’s seen its competitors cut prices. As a result, it’s been forced to issue new shares, thus diluting the value of existing investors’ holdings, just to keep the lights on. In fairness to Lucid, the road to success is rarely a straight line. Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder studies the performance of public companies, and the results are sobering. In new research, he found that, over the past 100 years, the median return among stocks trading on U.S. exchanges was negative 6.9%. Only a minority of stocks, in other words, made any money at all. Why are these results so dismal? Four factors stand out. The first is emotion—specifically, investors’ emotions. After Lucid went public in late-2020, its stock began rising quickly, and in the early months of 2021, the shares gained nearly 500%. What was driving those gains? Since the company was just starting production, very little can be attributed to the company’s financial results. Instead, it was simply investor excitement around the electric vehicle market and the optimistic view that Lucid would become the next Tesla. But no sooner did the stock rise that it fell again. And in the years since, it’s been an overwhelmingly downward slide for investors. In the last interview he gave before he died in 1976, Benjamin Graham compared the stock market to a seesaw. “The present optimism is going to be overdone and the next pessimism will be overdone.” And that causes stocks to go to extremes. Fifty years later, Graham’s observation seems no less accurate. Indeed, investment manager Cliff Asness has argued that, because of the internet, the impact of emotions on the market is even worse today. Due to what he calls “the less-efficient market hypothesis,” inaccurate information can spread much more quickly today than it did in the past. You may recall the phenomenon in which a group of day traders, led by a YouTube personality who called himself Roaring Kitty, was able to drive up the stock of a nearly-bankrupt company for no rational reason. That couldn’t have happened in the years before social media. Another factor that can drive stock prices is government action, and this also explains part of Lucid’s slide. When the government ended tax credits on electric vehicles last year, that made electric cars much more expensive for consumers. And contrary to intuition, this year’s higher gas prices haven’t done much to entice buyers back to EVs. On the other hand, government action can sometimes be positive. In 2017, for example, Congress voted to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, significantly boosting public company profits. Perhaps the most obvious factor that can drive stock prices is competition. This can take a few different forms. Coke and Pepsi, for example, have been battling for more than 100 years, but their relative positions don’t change very much. At this point, neither company is going to go out of business as a result of the other. In his book The Innovator’s Dilemma, the late Clayton Christensen described a much more disruptive form of competition—the sort that upends industries entirely, such as when 19-year-old Bill Gates outsmarted IBM. At the time, IBM was the most dominant company in the computer industry, but over time its position faded. It underestimated how important personal computers would become and didn’t take the market seriously. Years later, it ended up selling off its PC business entirely, and today makes very little hardware. The same sort of thing happened to BlackBerry, to Kodak and to Polaroid, among others. Like IBM, all of these companies had enormous resources. But, according to Christensen, it was their success that became their greatest weakness, because it caused them to underestimate threats and to downplay the likelihood that anything fundamental might ever change. Ken Olson, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, a leader in minicomputers in the 1960s and 1970s, famously asserted, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” The tricky aspect of the innovator’s dilemma, though, is that it isn’t universal. Consider the early years of the auto industry. Before automobiles gained popularity in the early 1900s, it’s estimated that there were 4,000 companies in the horse-and-carriage business. The right move for any of these companies would have been to try to transition into automobile manufacturing. Carriage makers, especially, had relevant skills and were best positioned to make this leap. But they adopted a collective mindset that the automobile wasn’t going to succeed, dismissing cars as “devil wagons.” But one of these carriage makers, Studebaker, did correctly assess where things were going and successfully transitioned to making automobiles. The rest failed, faded away or switched into other businesses. Companies, in other words, can be very good at one thing but lose their footing in the face of change. That’s a key factor behind Bessembinder’s findings. A final factor that can cause companies to stumble: random events. Consider, for example, what occurred in Thailand in 2011. Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding that caused large industrial areas to become submerged. This included the factories of hard drive manufacturers Western Digital and Seagate, causing their stocks to drop 35% and 45%, respectively. Both recovered, but this is an example of how even good companies can run into bad luck. Years of research has shown how difficult it is to predict stock prices. Bessembinder’s new work, however, makes an additional important point, which is that, for all of the reasons discussed here, and likely others, stocks face many more roads to potential demise than to success. Thus, to succeed at stock-picking doesn’t just require research and hard work. It requires an almost prophetic ability to identify the tiny handful of stocks that will turn into homeruns. But since the odds are so steeply against success, that’s a key reason I see it as so important to stick with the simpler and less risky alternative of index funds.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Around the Obstacles

I WAS 48 years old when the judgement was final and the papers were signed. My former wife and I split our net worth 50/50. There were no arguments over household items like furniture; I didn’t care about that stuff. Pam gladly accepted my proposal that she keep the house, and all its equity, in exchange for me keeping an offsetting amount of the IRAs and my 401(k), a very good move for my future self. By giving up the house, I also escaped the mortgage, which was the only loan obligation I had. Had there been consumer debt (there was none), I would have eliminated that as quickly as possible, beginning with the highest interest loans. I was ordered to pay spousal support to age 65, or my retirement if I worked beyond 65. I would be lying if I told you that I liked paying alimony. Still, it wasn’t unfair considering our age at divorce, Pam’s depression, and the fact that she mostly stayed at home to raise our kids.  Long before the divorce was ever final, I knew I’d have to make up for lost time if I ever wanted to retire in the manner to which I wanted to had become accustomed. The divorce wasn’t going to be the only obstacle I would have to overcome. Thirty years of delivering beverages resulted in osteoarthritis and plantar fasciitis; my days on the beer truck were rapidly coming to an end.  I needed a plan. Where Was I?  I had to understand exactly where I was, and what my options were. 
  1. My continued employment as a delivery driver would likely have left me on Social Security Disability (SSDI) by age 55.
  2. I was very interested in personal finance, and knew many people in that field who would help me get my foot in the door.
  3. I had acquired bookkeeping, payroll, and tax prep skills through my involvement with my local union, though I never pictured myself as the type to sit behind a desk, in a dimly lit office, crunching numbers beneath the glow of one of those green shade banker’s lamps.
  4. As a last resort, I could fall back on my truck driving skills, using my commercial drivers license to get a job hauling ‘no-touch’ freight of some sort.
  5. Last but not least, I needed a place to live. “Hello, mom and dad, I need my room back”. Sleeping on the twin mattress I gave up 25 years earlier, was not part of my plan.
  6. I was determined not to let my occupation as a beer truck driver dictate my future job prospects.
Where did I want to be? 
  1. Where to live? Living with the folks was never meant to be a long term thing. After three months of that, I signed my first ever apartment lease as a lessee, as opposed to a lessor. That lasted two years, until a very large increase in the rent caused me to buy a duplex, and become a lessor again.
  2. Where to work? I continued my work as a delivery driver for three more years. My position as the local union president, and my five paid weeks of vacation actually kept me off of the truck much of the time. That enabled me to tolerate the maladies that would eventually force me out of that job. Having absolutely no desire to spend the balance of my life languishing on SSDI and a minimal IRA balance, I set off on the path to becoming a financial services guy. That did not work out, and if you want more information on that, here’s a link.
  3. To make ends meet, I turned to my last resort; driving a truck. Piloting an 18-wheeler was not how I envisioned my remaining working days. And although the freight was ‘no touch’, driving 600 miles every day in a Kenworth tractor is still pretty hard on your vertebrae. But sometimes you have to do what you have to do to survive and to keep your eye on your finish line. My heart goes out to full time drivers, that job is no walk in the park.
  4. And what about love? My preference was to be in a relationship, but not any relationship. I wanted a good partner, I wanted to be a good partner as well. What qualities would I look for in a new partner? Independent, established, confident, and nice. Was I asking too much?
Making it All Work  Finally, preparation collided with opportunity. In other words, I got lucky. Remember when I told you I didn’t picture myself as ever being a bean-counter? Two established financial services guys set me up with free office space and began funneling tax prep clients to me. What began with me preparing taxes for about three dozen of my union brothers, instantly turned into over 100 clients. There I was, a bean counter of sorts.  I kept that truck driving job for several more years. And remember that duplex I bought after the rent spiked at my apartment? Well, there was this girl living next door. Enter Chrissy. We became best friends. She is no longer my neighbor. She is now my spouse. Of course, at the time we met, aside from being a nice guy, I wasn’t much of a catch. Man, she took a chance on me.  As my client count went up, my days driving the big-rig went down. When the client count got to about 400, I retired forever from driving. No more trips to Chicago, Des Moines, Snow Shoe PA, or Jersey City. Chrissy and I began pounding 40% of our gross pay into savings. It would take until I was 70, but working together, we got to a place each of us only dreamed we would be. By living within our means, and keeping lifestyle creep to a minimum, we surpassed our goals.  Chris retired at 64 and helped me during my final three years as a tax preparer. Lucky for me, Federal Wage and Hour never found out that I violated the minimum wage laws by never paying her in the first place. I sold the practice at age 70. I prepared 650 tax returns in my final year.  It’s important to note that during our journey, we did not starve ourselves of food nor fun. We counted 27 trips during our first ten years together. Chris was great at finding great deals to various destinations in the Caribbean, and we turned several of her business trips into mini vacations as well. It’s important to prepare for the future, but have some fun along the way as well.  I hope this piece inspires someone who is still on the road, dealing with similar obstacles, and wondering if there was a way around them. For 30 years, Dan Smith was a driver-salesman and local union representative, before building a successful income-tax practice in Toledo, Ohio. He retired in 2022. Dan has two beautiful daughters, two loving sons-in-law and seven grandchildren. He and Chris, the love of his life, have been together for two great decades and counting. Check out Dan's earlier articles.
Read more »

Live a little

"Nine times? Wow, that's dedication! I found it entertaining enough, but as a voracious reader I almost always prefer the book — and having read this one a few years ago, I can say it's much better. That said, I did enjoy the other adaptation from the same author: The Martian."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

How it all pencils out–or at least, we hope so! (Our Big “Little” Move, Part 3)

"Dear Dr. Lefty, Having two pensions and a probable inheritance and social security and life insurance and LTC insurance and an ADU that could yield rent AND a sizable pile of retirement savings would make me feel very good about my retirement plans!  Another thing that you might take for granted but is a blessing is that you have an interested, capable spouse who is not only on the same page as you about your planning but is actively helping “the team” by being able to change his full retirement date. I agree with: “At the end of the day, why did we save all that money in retirement accounts and keep cash available if it wasn’t to do something like this? So now we’re doing it!” Clichés like: “You only live once” and “You can’t take it with you” come to mind. Have fun with your new old house and (eventually) your new new kitchen and master bath!"
- Laura E. Kelly
Read more »

Rethinking the “Right” Time for Social Security

"You made 8% (yes adjust for taxes avoided) in muni’s?"
- Doug Kaufman
Read more »

Financial Planning

"Like others here, I have landed with a flat fee advisor. I worked with a couple of AUM advisors, and was uncomfortable with the value proposition. I heard Morningstar's Christine Benz interview a representative from Abundo, and engaged one of their advisors. Not perfect, but good to work with. I have many questions, and they answer them all, and generally find the advice to be sound, often better than my own thoughts. They don't make any trades, I have to execute them myself, so every option has it's limitations. With my kid's help, my wife would be more than capable of managing our finances in my absence, but it is comforting to know there is a trusted advisor who knows us, ready to help through uncertainty. This is not an endorsement or suggestion that my flat fee advisor is better than any other, just a recommendation to consider flat fee as an alternation solution."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

Enough complaining already. Live your life and stop worrying about “they” “ them” or things

"I have observed that things that used to be considered luxuries are standard or baseline. My Dad was a music buff, he thought Karen Carpenter was the bomb. He returned from Vietnam and bought a new 1974 Dodge Dart and was just delighted to have an under-dash cassette tape player to listen to his favorite music. It was a luxury to him, one of few he allowed himself. Now people feel that wired connectivity to the music apps on their phones just isn't good enough compared to wireless, but it's so much better than just a few years ago. The proliferation of luxury features in our consumer mindset is a huge contributor to inflation. On many products, you can no longer find a simple manual system, everything is "smart." I don't object to the development of labor saving features, I object to the dependence on it. I'm probably guilty of this like anyone else, but I miss the days where you had to WORK for the fancy stuff. Or just do without."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

"Wow, great example that the U.S. tax code is exhausting!"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"I agree with RQ. Wealthy or not, folks with no wages shouldn’t be required to contribute to SS system. There are other tax mechanism to shift wealth to support society."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Driving Prices

IN 2020, ELECTRIC car maker Lucid Motors brought in revenue of $4 million. Five years later, sales had risen impressively, to more than $1 billion. In 2025 alone, sales grew 68%. That sounds like a success story, and through that lens, it is. And yet, over that same period, the company’s stock dropped more than 89%. What happened? A better question is: What didn’t happen? Despite growing sales, the company has struggled to turn a profit. On sales of $1.3 billion last year, Lucid posted a loss of $3.8 billion. It’s experienced production problems and management turnover. It’s seen its competitors cut prices. As a result, it’s been forced to issue new shares, thus diluting the value of existing investors’ holdings, just to keep the lights on. In fairness to Lucid, the road to success is rarely a straight line. Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder studies the performance of public companies, and the results are sobering. In new research, he found that, over the past 100 years, the median return among stocks trading on U.S. exchanges was negative 6.9%. Only a minority of stocks, in other words, made any money at all. Why are these results so dismal? Four factors stand out. The first is emotion—specifically, investors’ emotions. After Lucid went public in late-2020, its stock began rising quickly, and in the early months of 2021, the shares gained nearly 500%. What was driving those gains? Since the company was just starting production, very little can be attributed to the company’s financial results. Instead, it was simply investor excitement around the electric vehicle market and the optimistic view that Lucid would become the next Tesla. But no sooner did the stock rise that it fell again. And in the years since, it’s been an overwhelmingly downward slide for investors. In the last interview he gave before he died in 1976, Benjamin Graham compared the stock market to a seesaw. “The present optimism is going to be overdone and the next pessimism will be overdone.” And that causes stocks to go to extremes. Fifty years later, Graham’s observation seems no less accurate. Indeed, investment manager Cliff Asness has argued that, because of the internet, the impact of emotions on the market is even worse today. Due to what he calls “the less-efficient market hypothesis,” inaccurate information can spread much more quickly today than it did in the past. You may recall the phenomenon in which a group of day traders, led by a YouTube personality who called himself Roaring Kitty, was able to drive up the stock of a nearly-bankrupt company for no rational reason. That couldn’t have happened in the years before social media. Another factor that can drive stock prices is government action, and this also explains part of Lucid’s slide. When the government ended tax credits on electric vehicles last year, that made electric cars much more expensive for consumers. And contrary to intuition, this year’s higher gas prices haven’t done much to entice buyers back to EVs. On the other hand, government action can sometimes be positive. In 2017, for example, Congress voted to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, significantly boosting public company profits. Perhaps the most obvious factor that can drive stock prices is competition. This can take a few different forms. Coke and Pepsi, for example, have been battling for more than 100 years, but their relative positions don’t change very much. At this point, neither company is going to go out of business as a result of the other. In his book The Innovator’s Dilemma, the late Clayton Christensen described a much more disruptive form of competition—the sort that upends industries entirely, such as when 19-year-old Bill Gates outsmarted IBM. At the time, IBM was the most dominant company in the computer industry, but over time its position faded. It underestimated how important personal computers would become and didn’t take the market seriously. Years later, it ended up selling off its PC business entirely, and today makes very little hardware. The same sort of thing happened to BlackBerry, to Kodak and to Polaroid, among others. Like IBM, all of these companies had enormous resources. But, according to Christensen, it was their success that became their greatest weakness, because it caused them to underestimate threats and to downplay the likelihood that anything fundamental might ever change. Ken Olson, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, a leader in minicomputers in the 1960s and 1970s, famously asserted, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” The tricky aspect of the innovator’s dilemma, though, is that it isn’t universal. Consider the early years of the auto industry. Before automobiles gained popularity in the early 1900s, it’s estimated that there were 4,000 companies in the horse-and-carriage business. The right move for any of these companies would have been to try to transition into automobile manufacturing. Carriage makers, especially, had relevant skills and were best positioned to make this leap. But they adopted a collective mindset that the automobile wasn’t going to succeed, dismissing cars as “devil wagons.” But one of these carriage makers, Studebaker, did correctly assess where things were going and successfully transitioned to making automobiles. The rest failed, faded away or switched into other businesses. Companies, in other words, can be very good at one thing but lose their footing in the face of change. That’s a key factor behind Bessembinder’s findings. A final factor that can cause companies to stumble: random events. Consider, for example, what occurred in Thailand in 2011. Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding that caused large industrial areas to become submerged. This included the factories of hard drive manufacturers Western Digital and Seagate, causing their stocks to drop 35% and 45%, respectively. Both recovered, but this is an example of how even good companies can run into bad luck. Years of research has shown how difficult it is to predict stock prices. Bessembinder’s new work, however, makes an additional important point, which is that, for all of the reasons discussed here, and likely others, stocks face many more roads to potential demise than to success. Thus, to succeed at stock-picking doesn’t just require research and hard work. It requires an almost prophetic ability to identify the tiny handful of stocks that will turn into homeruns. But since the odds are so steeply against success, that’s a key reason I see it as so important to stick with the simpler and less risky alternative of index funds.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Around the Obstacles

I WAS 48 years old when the judgement was final and the papers were signed. My former wife and I split our net worth 50/50. There were no arguments over household items like furniture; I didn’t care about that stuff. Pam gladly accepted my proposal that she keep the house, and all its equity, in exchange for me keeping an offsetting amount of the IRAs and my 401(k), a very good move for my future self. By giving up the house, I also escaped the mortgage, which was the only loan obligation I had. Had there been consumer debt (there was none), I would have eliminated that as quickly as possible, beginning with the highest interest loans. I was ordered to pay spousal support to age 65, or my retirement if I worked beyond 65. I would be lying if I told you that I liked paying alimony. Still, it wasn’t unfair considering our age at divorce, Pam’s depression, and the fact that she mostly stayed at home to raise our kids.  Long before the divorce was ever final, I knew I’d have to make up for lost time if I ever wanted to retire in the manner to which I wanted to had become accustomed. The divorce wasn’t going to be the only obstacle I would have to overcome. Thirty years of delivering beverages resulted in osteoarthritis and plantar fasciitis; my days on the beer truck were rapidly coming to an end.  I needed a plan. Where Was I?  I had to understand exactly where I was, and what my options were. 
  1. My continued employment as a delivery driver would likely have left me on Social Security Disability (SSDI) by age 55.
  2. I was very interested in personal finance, and knew many people in that field who would help me get my foot in the door.
  3. I had acquired bookkeeping, payroll, and tax prep skills through my involvement with my local union, though I never pictured myself as the type to sit behind a desk, in a dimly lit office, crunching numbers beneath the glow of one of those green shade banker’s lamps.
  4. As a last resort, I could fall back on my truck driving skills, using my commercial drivers license to get a job hauling ‘no-touch’ freight of some sort.
  5. Last but not least, I needed a place to live. “Hello, mom and dad, I need my room back”. Sleeping on the twin mattress I gave up 25 years earlier, was not part of my plan.
  6. I was determined not to let my occupation as a beer truck driver dictate my future job prospects.
Where did I want to be? 
  1. Where to live? Living with the folks was never meant to be a long term thing. After three months of that, I signed my first ever apartment lease as a lessee, as opposed to a lessor. That lasted two years, until a very large increase in the rent caused me to buy a duplex, and become a lessor again.
  2. Where to work? I continued my work as a delivery driver for three more years. My position as the local union president, and my five paid weeks of vacation actually kept me off of the truck much of the time. That enabled me to tolerate the maladies that would eventually force me out of that job. Having absolutely no desire to spend the balance of my life languishing on SSDI and a minimal IRA balance, I set off on the path to becoming a financial services guy. That did not work out, and if you want more information on that, here’s a link.
  3. To make ends meet, I turned to my last resort; driving a truck. Piloting an 18-wheeler was not how I envisioned my remaining working days. And although the freight was ‘no touch’, driving 600 miles every day in a Kenworth tractor is still pretty hard on your vertebrae. But sometimes you have to do what you have to do to survive and to keep your eye on your finish line. My heart goes out to full time drivers, that job is no walk in the park.
  4. And what about love? My preference was to be in a relationship, but not any relationship. I wanted a good partner, I wanted to be a good partner as well. What qualities would I look for in a new partner? Independent, established, confident, and nice. Was I asking too much?
Making it All Work  Finally, preparation collided with opportunity. In other words, I got lucky. Remember when I told you I didn’t picture myself as ever being a bean-counter? Two established financial services guys set me up with free office space and began funneling tax prep clients to me. What began with me preparing taxes for about three dozen of my union brothers, instantly turned into over 100 clients. There I was, a bean counter of sorts.  I kept that truck driving job for several more years. And remember that duplex I bought after the rent spiked at my apartment? Well, there was this girl living next door. Enter Chrissy. We became best friends. She is no longer my neighbor. She is now my spouse. Of course, at the time we met, aside from being a nice guy, I wasn’t much of a catch. Man, she took a chance on me.  As my client count went up, my days driving the big-rig went down. When the client count got to about 400, I retired forever from driving. No more trips to Chicago, Des Moines, Snow Shoe PA, or Jersey City. Chrissy and I began pounding 40% of our gross pay into savings. It would take until I was 70, but working together, we got to a place each of us only dreamed we would be. By living within our means, and keeping lifestyle creep to a minimum, we surpassed our goals.  Chris retired at 64 and helped me during my final three years as a tax preparer. Lucky for me, Federal Wage and Hour never found out that I violated the minimum wage laws by never paying her in the first place. I sold the practice at age 70. I prepared 650 tax returns in my final year.  It’s important to note that during our journey, we did not starve ourselves of food nor fun. We counted 27 trips during our first ten years together. Chris was great at finding great deals to various destinations in the Caribbean, and we turned several of her business trips into mini vacations as well. It’s important to prepare for the future, but have some fun along the way as well.  I hope this piece inspires someone who is still on the road, dealing with similar obstacles, and wondering if there was a way around them. For 30 years, Dan Smith was a driver-salesman and local union representative, before building a successful income-tax practice in Toledo, Ohio. He retired in 2022. Dan has two beautiful daughters, two loving sons-in-law and seven grandchildren. He and Chris, the love of his life, have been together for two great decades and counting. Check out Dan's earlier articles.
Read more »

Live a little

"Nine times? Wow, that's dedication! I found it entertaining enough, but as a voracious reader I almost always prefer the book — and having read this one a few years ago, I can say it's much better. That said, I did enjoy the other adaptation from the same author: The Martian."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

How it all pencils out–or at least, we hope so! (Our Big “Little” Move, Part 3)

"Dear Dr. Lefty, Having two pensions and a probable inheritance and social security and life insurance and LTC insurance and an ADU that could yield rent AND a sizable pile of retirement savings would make me feel very good about my retirement plans!  Another thing that you might take for granted but is a blessing is that you have an interested, capable spouse who is not only on the same page as you about your planning but is actively helping “the team” by being able to change his full retirement date. I agree with: “At the end of the day, why did we save all that money in retirement accounts and keep cash available if it wasn’t to do something like this? So now we’re doing it!” Clichés like: “You only live once” and “You can’t take it with you” come to mind. Have fun with your new old house and (eventually) your new new kitchen and master bath!"
- Laura E. Kelly
Read more »

Rethinking the “Right” Time for Social Security

"You made 8% (yes adjust for taxes avoided) in muni’s?"
- Doug Kaufman
Read more »

Financial Planning

"Like others here, I have landed with a flat fee advisor. I worked with a couple of AUM advisors, and was uncomfortable with the value proposition. I heard Morningstar's Christine Benz interview a representative from Abundo, and engaged one of their advisors. Not perfect, but good to work with. I have many questions, and they answer them all, and generally find the advice to be sound, often better than my own thoughts. They don't make any trades, I have to execute them myself, so every option has it's limitations. With my kid's help, my wife would be more than capable of managing our finances in my absence, but it is comforting to know there is a trusted advisor who knows us, ready to help through uncertainty. This is not an endorsement or suggestion that my flat fee advisor is better than any other, just a recommendation to consider flat fee as an alternation solution."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

Enough complaining already. Live your life and stop worrying about “they” “ them” or things

"I have observed that things that used to be considered luxuries are standard or baseline. My Dad was a music buff, he thought Karen Carpenter was the bomb. He returned from Vietnam and bought a new 1974 Dodge Dart and was just delighted to have an under-dash cassette tape player to listen to his favorite music. It was a luxury to him, one of few he allowed himself. Now people feel that wired connectivity to the music apps on their phones just isn't good enough compared to wireless, but it's so much better than just a few years ago. The proliferation of luxury features in our consumer mindset is a huge contributor to inflation. On many products, you can no longer find a simple manual system, everything is "smart." I don't object to the development of labor saving features, I object to the dependence on it. I'm probably guilty of this like anyone else, but I miss the days where you had to WORK for the fancy stuff. Or just do without."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

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Manifesto

NO. 77: TO BUY ourselves happiness, often the best strategy is to not buy anything at all. That can leave us with a plump bank account and the sense of financial security it offers.

think

TIME DIVERSIFICATION. Investors with long time horizons are encouraged to buy stocks. Yet such “time diversification” is controversial: While most of us assume the stock market is mean reverting—meaning good times follow bad—academics have argued that, if stock returns are random, healthy returns aren’t a sure thing, no matter how long we hang on.

act

GET A FREE CREDIT score. You can learn your score at websites such as Credit Karma, Credit Sesame, NerdWallet and WalletHub. Credit scores are also available from financial firms like Capital One and Chase, even if you aren’t currently one of their customers. Not all these sites will tell you your FICO score—the most widely used scoring system.

humans

NO. 51: WE FAVOR the familiar, such as stocks of local companies and makers of goods we buy. This “home bias” can be risky. Folks often bet big on their employer’s shares, so both their paycheck and portfolio hinge on the company’s prosperity. Many U.S. investors also shun foreign stocks, even though there’s no guarantee U.S. shares will outperform long-term.

Homes

Manifesto

NO. 77: TO BUY ourselves happiness, often the best strategy is to not buy anything at all. That can leave us with a plump bank account and the sense of financial security it offers.

Spotlight: Abuse

Brotherly Betrayal

I WROTE PREVIOUSLY about my parents being victims of financial abuse by one of my brothers. Recently, I returned to Bangkok, which gave me a chance to discuss this situation at length with the entire family, including my other brothers and my uncle.

When the financial abuse of an elderly person is committed by a stranger, the rest of the family often has no chance to see warning signs. But 90% of abusers are family members or trusted individuals.

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Social Security Alert?

My mother received an email today from “Social Security Administration”  warning of “Important Changes to Access Your Social Security Account!”
It states that “soon you will no longer be able to sign into your online Social Security account using your username and password.” It goes on to say in the future, only a Login.gov or ID.me.account, and ends with a big button that says “Sign In to Your Account.”
I suspect this is bogus. Has anyone else received a similar email?

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A Simple Way to Avoid Phone Scams

I just read about an excellent script to use when one gets a call purporting to be from a financial institution that is, “every time a financial institution calls: “Where are you calling from? Thank you. I’m going to hang up and call back.”
Then go find the institution’s phone number (from a statement, the back of the credit card, or by typing in the URL of the website itself and finding it on the website;

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Stay Safe Out There

SOME YEARS AGO, an elderly neighbor came to our door, asking for a favor. She was looking for packing tape because she’d sold her television and needed to ship it. She went on to say that the buyer, who she’d found on eBay, was in Nigeria. It was, of course, an obvious scam. But for whatever reason, she couldn’t see it.
Today, scams like this are better known and easier to recognize. But what makes online fraud such a problem is that the crooks are always developing new tricks.

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A Tangled Web

I SERVED ON A GRAND jury earlier this year. We heard more than 100 cases during our three-month stint. Our task was to issue an indictment if the state showed probable cause that a crime occurred. If we indicted, cases would then move on to traditional jury trials.
Some cases involved cybercrime. Others included private records subpoenaed by the District Attorney’s office from technology and phone companies, financial institutions, hospitals and commercial businesses. The experience was eye-opening.

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Trust Betrayed

BEFORE I RETIRED, I was a credit risk manager. I had to take compliance courses annually. One course focused on financial abuse, especially of the elderly. I learned that the most common perpetrators are not strangers, but family members, friends and caregivers who take advantage of too-trusting seniors.

But it’s one thing to know this theoretically—and quite another to find out it’s happening in your own family.

I previously wrote about now both my late father and his close friend were victims of financial abuse.

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Spotlight: Drak

Ironman Training Update

This past weekend I did the 200k Ride To Conquer Cancer. On Saturday we rode from Toronto to Hamilton and on Sunday from Hamilton to Niagara Falls. I knew it was going to be hard because I had only done one 100k training ride so far this year because of the bad weather we were having. Also I suffer from bad allergies as well as exercise induced asthma and the day before it looked like it was snowing here due to all the white fluff in the air never mind the smoke from the forest fires out west. But like they say the show must go on and things were going ok until the 80k mark on day 2. It became very uncomfortable to ride. My arms, backside, and neck were very sore and I had trouble pedaling but in the end I managed to get it done. With only 54 days left to Ironman Ottawa I can see a lot of riding in my future. How this adventure will turn out is anybody's guess but I'm committed or maybe I should be committed.
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My Ironman Triathlon

I INVESTED A GOOD chunk of 2022 getting ready for the Ironman triathlon on Nov. 20 in Cozumel, Mexico. A lot of people have asked me why I would even attempt an Ironman at age 68. I tell them I’m investing in my future self. I know what I want my future to look like, and I’m focused on putting the pieces in place to get me there. My good health is a big piece of that picture. I want to enjoy a fulfilling, meaningful life. I want to experience life to its fullest with the time that I have left. And I want to lose those 53 pounds I managed to put on while writing three books and getting through the pandemic. My goal wasn’t to finish Ironman. My goal is to become healthy again, to be active and athletic so I can do the things I love to do for as long as I can. Here’s my Ironman race report. Let’s just say it was a hell of a day. Race day. At 5 a.m., I caught a taxi to get to my bike at transition area one (T1), where I’d switch from swimming to riding later that morning. I checked the air pressure in the tires and then loaded the bike with four bottles of nutrition, as well as eight gels and a bottle of salt pills. After that, I dropped off my special-needs bags at the designated buses. Then I made my way to the shuttle buses and stood in line to be driven to the swim start. It was only a short ride, and soon we were all waiting for the beginning of the race. The pros were scheduled to start at 7 a.m., followed by the age groups, which were self-seeded based on their…
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Who Are You?

THE PRODUCERS of retirement commercials would like us to believe that all retirees are the same. They aren’t. To be happy in retirement, we need a good handle on what our needs are—financially and otherwise—and then find ways to satisfy them each and every day. That might sound difficult, but it isn’t. To help get you started, here are the three general types of retiree I discovered during my research on retirement: 1. Comfort-oriented retirees. These folks like to avoid stress, instead favoring a safe, predictable retirement. They no longer have any goals. Retiring was their big goal and, now that it’s behind them, they just want to rest and take it easy. Comfort-oriented retirees don’t need much to be happy. Just the basics will do: food on the table, a roof over their head and some level of financial security. My mother was a comfort-oriented retiree. She lived a simple life and, after my father passed away, was content to help family members, take care of her cat Boots and enjoy time with friends. She never felt the need to run a marathon or travel the world. She was happy with how things were and wasn’t inclined to take risks that might bring discomfort. 2. Growth-oriented retirees. These retirees have a need to keep stretching, exploring, learning and experiencing new things. If they can’t do that, they aren’t happy. They’ve created a bucket list a mile long and plan on knocking things off that list for as long as they can. They have a hardwired desire to feel “significant” and a need for accomplishment and contribution. Their work nourished these needs, and they lost that source of nourishment when they retired. Until they can find a way of replacing it, they’ll always feel like something is missing in their…
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Pushing Myself

I LIKE CHALLENGING myself to do hard things. I guess it’s just the way I’m wired. Recently, I started thinking about the hardest things I’ve done. Convincing my wife to marry me was hard. She was a tough sell. But eventually I wore her down and got the deal done—one of my best deals, by the way. Attempting Ironman Cozumel at age 68 was hard and, even though I failed, it’s one of my most cherished memories. I enlarged a picture taken of me exiting the water after the swimming segment, and put copies up on the walls of my office and my pain cave in the basement. To motivate me, I also had a magnetized copy made for the refrigerator door. Whenever I look at that picture, I think of Rocky after his first fight with Apollo Creed. My right eye is swollen shut and I have a look of pure exhaustion on my face. Every time I look at the photo, I break out into a big smile and laugh to myself. What was I thinking? Believe it or not, writing a book was hard—perhaps even harder than Ironman. I’d never been any sort of writer before. But whenever I get emails from readers telling me my book helped them escape retirement hell, all the hard work feels worth it. After much reflection, however, I think the hardest thing I’ve ever done was speak in front of an audience. I’m not sure when I developed stage fright. It might have happened when a teacher gave me a hard time after a presentation in grade school. Or it might be the imposter syndrome I suffered from while working in the corporate world. Or maybe it was a bit of both. It got so bad that sometimes, when I was…
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My Favorite Ideas

WHAT ARE THE MOST important financial notions? For me, the answers are “compounding” and “financial independence.” Albert Einstein purportedly called compounding the eighth wonder of the world. Warren Buffett has said that the power of compound interest played an important role in his success. But what I’ve learned is that compounding doesn’t just apply to our finances. It can also be used to improve our health, our relationships and our mastery of whatever topic we choose. Life reinvention is a slow process that happens in small steps that compound upon one another over time. You need to be patient and let the power of compounding work its magic. Do one positive thing each day, such as exercising, eating right or developing a new skill, that moves you toward who you want to be. If you do that one thing every single day, I promise that you’ll get there. Meanwhile, I discovered the concept of financial independence—as opposed to the traditional notion of retirement—when I was in my mid-50s and struggling with whether or not to leave my stressful banking job. It was one of my biggest aha moments. I didn’t want to fully retire, but I wanted the financial freedom to do what I wanted when I wanted. Realizing I had that freedom was life-changing for me. It gave me back my personal freedom—the freedom to be me—and allowed me to regain control over how I spend my time. I wasn’t scared about losing my job anymore. I could finally sleep at night knowing that, no matter what happened, my family and I would be okay. We all have a fundamental need for security and safety. Gaining some degree of financial independence helps us meet those important needs. Achieving financial independence allows us to change our life’s direction. We can…
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Talking My Book

I'M TURNING 70 THIS year, and that’s got me thinking about the legacy I’ll leave behind. Legacy for me involves much more than bequeathing money to the kids. It’s about the contribution I’ve been able to make and the people I've helped along the way. Since retiring, I’ve been on a mission to help folks have a better retirement. This resulted in me co-authoring three books on the subject. In addition to my family, the books and what I do with them will be my legacy. With that in mind, my plan is to give away the three books for free in exchange for readers posting an honest Amazon review about the books. Why am I asking for reviews? For me, writing books is really hard and it takes me a long time to finish. I’m not a natural-born writer—more plodder than anything. I can’t tell you the number of times I feel like quitting while working on a book. It’s lonely to spend months and months locked away in my home office. It gets to me sometimes, especially during the summer months, when there are so many things I’d rather be doing. What keeps me from quitting is reading the reviews posted by readers. I take pride in knowing that the books I co-authored helped someone, and that gives me the strength to get the next book done. Another benefit I gain from reading reviews—both the good and the bad—is that I learn from them. Yes, there are bad ones, and I’m pretty sure one was written by my ex. Here’s a brief overview of the three books I’m offering: Victory Lap Retirement. If you were intrigued by the ICE, or “I’ll continue earning,” approach to retirement that Jonathan Clements recently wrote about, you’ll enjoy this book. In it,…
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