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Money management delivers answers that have precision—but that doesn’t mean it’s a precise business.

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What’s in your portfolio ?

"I would do Vanguard Lifestyle funds also, except I don't feel the need for a bond portion because of our high current income stream compared to our expenses. For that reason I stay fully invested in stock index etf's"
- Larry
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"This isn’t about Congress, it’s about people making decisions and supporting policies based on false information."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"Mark, Your writing style sparkles like diamonds ;). Seriously… another well-written, entertaining article."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"I would worry about interest rate risk with the long duration of your bond funds. Personally I have been using individual treasuries (6 mo -1yr terms). If rates of intermediate treasuries increase significantly I would consider extending maturities with T bond ladder. No state tax worries either"
- Charles Moser
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"Well, in this case not taxing is the problem. There is no problem automatically increasing Medicare premiums to maintain 25% Part B cost sharing. This should be no different."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you Konrad. What always impressed me was that he never measured success solely in financial terms. He cared deeply about helping people live better lives, and he did so with remarkable kindness and decency. Reading comments like yours reminds me that his influence continues far beyond the articles and books he left behind. For that, I am very grateful."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"Yes, those income taxes, especially for the retirees strike me as crazy low."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Defining Enough

"Excellent article. I found a way to answer that question by watching my monthy and annual "flow" and adjusting as necessary. I am lucky enough to have some fairly large RMDs now, and my budget leaves me with something extra at the end of each month. I am finding that I have a new question. It is: "What can I now afford to give to the institutions that gave me the perspectives, values, education and skills I needed to succeed?" I am grateful, and the need to show that gratitude tugs at me. And I am not just thinking of my college and law school, but older and smaller entities, like my Catholic grammar and high school, local public library, church, not-for-profit community organizations and the like. I'll never be able to thank the individuals I would like to honor, since they are mostly all gone. But these formative entities soldier on with new students, participants and members like me, and I think they deserve a share of what I've earned."
- Martin McCue
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"I would do Vanguard Lifestyle funds also, except I don't feel the need for a bond portion because of our high current income stream compared to our expenses. For that reason I stay fully invested in stock index etf's"
- Larry
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"This isn’t about Congress, it’s about people making decisions and supporting policies based on false information."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"Mark, Your writing style sparkles like diamonds ;). Seriously… another well-written, entertaining article."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"I would worry about interest rate risk with the long duration of your bond funds. Personally I have been using individual treasuries (6 mo -1yr terms). If rates of intermediate treasuries increase significantly I would consider extending maturities with T bond ladder. No state tax worries either"
- Charles Moser
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"Well, in this case not taxing is the problem. There is no problem automatically increasing Medicare premiums to maintain 25% Part B cost sharing. This should be no different."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

think

FLOW. We imagine what we want most is time to relax. But in truth, we get great satisfaction from work—provided it’s work we find challenging and interesting, and feel we’re good at. All this is captured by psychology professor Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s notion of flow. During moments of flow, we can become completely absorbed and lose all sense of time.

act

DECIDE WHICH DEBTS to pay off first. Looking to repay your loans more quickly than required? You’ll usually want to focus on ridding yourself of your highest-interest debt. But suppose you have a car loan that’s almost paid off. Even if the rate is low, you might pay extra toward that loan—because eliminating it will immediately improve your monthly cash flow.

Truths

NO. 142: MUCH OF OUR financial success can be explained by luck—the family we're born into, the value that today’s economy puts on our talents, whether our bosses take a shine to us, whether the financial markets treat us well. The upshot: No matter how much success we’ve enjoyed, we should resist growing overconfident or being dismissive of others.

Savings Initiative

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Spotlight: Advisors

Calling for Backup

WHEN I RETIRED, I WAS surprised by how many of my friends and former colleagues had a financial advisor. My thought: Why would folks pay someone else to manage their money when they could easily do it themselves?
But I found out early in retirement that hiring an advisor was a good idea. There’s a big difference between investing while drawing a paycheck and investing without one. When I retired, I realized that the money I was investing was all the money I’d ever have,

Read more »

Staying Wealthy

A CLOSE FRIEND’S LONG career in the motion picture business recently came to an end when the studio eliminated her job. Even before the pandemic, the industry was changing, so she wasn’t surprised or, for that matter, especially sad about getting laid off. She was lucky to receive a good severance package and is now ready to do something different. But finding the right job will likely take time, so carefully managing her cash through the transition period is crucial.

Read more »

Errors of Commission

I WAS A RABID football fan as a kid. I would sweep across our front lawn, fantasizing about the many and varied ways I would run to daylight for Hewlett High School. But when I finally got the chance, I lasted only a few practices. I hadn’t counted on all the bruises that came with the program.
So, too, was it with my brief stint as an independent investment advisor affiliated with a large discount broker.

Read more »

Late to the Rescue

MY FATHER-IN-LAW William retired from Duke University after teaching there for more than 30 years. He had a good pension, which—along with Social Security—covered all his expenses at the continuing care retirement community (CCRC) where he spent most of his retirement. Almost to the end, he was mentally sharp. I saw no need to inquire about his finances. I was mistaken.
In summer 2014, my wife noticed that William, then age 96, had left a large check for a matured life insurance policy on his desk for a couple of months.

Read more »

No Need for Prophets

WHEN FINANCIAL planners are asked at parties what they do for a living, many hesitate to be specific. Why? Because the inevitable follow-up questions relate to where they think the stock market, the dollar, interest rates or the economy are headed.
It’s a myth that dies hard—the idea that a financial planner is a market prophet with special powers for foreseeing the next big boom or bust. To be sure, some advisors position themselves as smart forecasters or market timers.

Read more »

Your Results May Vary

“SELL THE SIZZLE, BOYS.” With those words from the sales manager at a big insurance company, the 2003 class of newly minted registered representatives were off to the races, extolling the virtues of the firm’s products to family, friends and anyone else who would listen.
I still vividly remember that moment. Yes, I was there.
To become registered reps, the 2003 class had to pass the necessary exams to get a Series 6 securities license and a license to sell life and health insurance.

Read more »

Spotlight: McGlynn

A Less Risky Life

MANY FOLKS ARE do-it-yourselfers when it comes to home improvement projects. On that score, I have no skills, so I end up paying others. In fact, in high school, I was so anxious to avoid metal shop and woodshop that I opted for typing and four semesters of bookkeeping. It’s a different story when it comes to my finances. Yes, I use an accountant to file my taxes. But helped by both a degree in finance and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, I handle other money issues myself. Indeed, during my career, I kept my money in the mutual funds I managed, rather than paying someone else to handle my investments. I left the investment field six years ago, at age 55, and began my retirement planning journey. To understand my choices better, I earned a Retirement Income Certified Professional designation, as well as obtaining life and health insurance licenses. I came to realize that—as a retiree—I needed to protect myself against four major risks: tax increases, a surprisingly long life, rising interest rates and potentially huge long-term-care expenses. 1. Tax increases. During my high-income years, I funded a 401(k) plan, which meant I deferred taxes on the income involved. Now, with my income lower, I have the chance to “undefer” this income. When I left my investment job six years ago, I rolled my 401(k) into an IRA. Each year since, I’ve converted part of that IRA to a Roth IRA, where the money now grows tax-free. In effect, I’ve prepaid a big chunk of my retirement tax bill and protected that money against future tax increases. I strongly suspect those tax increases are on their way. The federal government has spent massive sums to soften the pandemic’s financial blow. The huge taxable amounts in tax-deferred IRAs will, I…
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Don’t Delay

I HAD LUNCH RECENTLY with a longtime friend—a 66-year-old retiree. I asked him how he’s generating income since he hasn’t filed for Social Security and doesn’t have a pension. He said that, for now, he’s just drawing down his savings. I know his wife is three years older and her lifetime earnings were much lower than his, so I asked him if she’d filed for Social Security. He proudly said that she hadn’t—because she expects to live to age 90, like her mother. What he didn’t know: Because the Social Security benefit based on his wife’s own earnings record is less than half of his benefit as of his full Social Security retirement age (FRA), it probably didn’t make sense for her to delay her own benefit beyond her FRA. Why? Let’s start with the basics: His wife’s spousal benefit is a maximum 50% of his FRA amount. Her benefit would be reduced if she receives benefits—whether it’s benefits based on her own earnings record or his—before her FRA. What if she claims after her FRA? That’ll increase the benefits based on her own earnings record. But it won’t increase her spousal benefit. Moreover, she can’t receive that spousal benefit until her husband claims his benefit. Got all that? Many retirees delay benefits until age 70, thinking that’s the prudent course, given the chance they’ll live to a ripe old age. But in many cases, it’s best to file at your FRA if your spouse is entitled to a much larger Social Security benefit. Let’s continue with the example of my friend and his wife. Suppose his Social Security benefit at FRA is $3,000 a month, while his wife’s benefit at FRA is $1,000 based on her own earnings record. To keep things simple, we’ll also assume her FRA is…
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Refinancing—Again

I HAD A NEW HOME built in 2017. I financed it with a 30-year mortgage at a 3.875% interest rate. Early last year, when interest rates dropped due to the pandemic, I suggested that readers refinance. I took my own advice, replacing my 30-year loan with a 15-year mortgage at 2.99%. The cost of refinancing seemed well worth the reduction in my loan interest rate. Two months ago, I saw that mortgage rates had continued to decline, so I refinanced again. My existing mortgage company gave me a new, 15-year loan at 2.375%. I didn’t want to pay the upfront costs to refinance, but I didn’t have to: My current lender waived them because I was already a customer. For those keeping score at home, the interest rate I pay has fallen 39% over the past four years. I started with a low-rate mortgage—and wound up with one that’s rock-bottom. Readers may wonder whether I should pay off my mortgage entirely. I’ve decided I’d rather have more liquidity—by keeping more money in cash. True, my cash account pays just 1.35%, a lower rate than I owe on the mortgage. But I see my savings as insurance against an emergency. On top of that, with a healthy cash balance, I won’t be tempted to draw on the equity in my home for some big expense. No one knows if and when interest rates will rise again. But I’ve locked in low rates for the duration. If short-term rates do rise, my mortgage payment won’t change. My cash account, however, may pay me more money.
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The Gift of the MAGI

I’LL BE ENROLLING IN Medicare in a couple of years. I wish I knew how much my premiums will be, but that’s a mystery worthy of Sherlock Holmes. I’ve researched it thoroughly, as you shall see, and it all starts with something called IRMAA. IRMAA is not the name of my seventh-grade crush. Instead, it stands for income-related monthly adjustment amount. It’s the premium surcharge that people with higher incomes pay for Medicare. How much is the surcharge? In 2022, single taxpayers with incomes above $91,000—or $182,000 for joint filers—paid at least $68 a month on top of the standard premium of $170.10 for Medicare Part B. The surcharge ranged as high as $408.20 a month for top earners. You can get all the details here. There’s a similar surcharge for Medicare Part D, which pays for prescription drugs. That surcharge ranged from $12.40 to $77.90 a month in 2022 depending, again, on income levels. These figures adjust a bit every year. There are several complications in anticipating the size of my future Medicare premiums. First, my income this year, at age 63, will determine if I must pay a surcharge when I enroll in Medicare at 65. Medicare, you see, looks back two years when determining our income levels. Second, the income amount that counts is not adjusted gross income, but rather MAGI, or modified adjusted gross income. MAGI is adjusted gross income with tax-exempt interest income added back in. Third, if I exceed the income threshold—even by $1—the Medicare surcharge will be triggered for the entire year. To avoid this fate, I need to know my income this year and keep it below the threshold, if I can. At the moment, I think I’m just below the limit. It’s complicated, though, because my income comes from many sources.…
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Don’t Get an F

MEDICAL EXPENSES ARE a big worry for retirees—leading many to purchase supplemental insurance. But you need to think carefully about which Medigap policy you buy. What does this insurance get you? Medicare Part B, which covers doctor’s visits and other outpatient care, typically only pays 80% of the expenses that retirees incur. To plug this and other coverage gaps, many folks buy a Medigap insurance plan. Want to keep your current doctors and not be restricted to the network of medical professionals offered in a Medicare Advantage plan, otherwise known as Medicare Part C? You’ll want to stick with Medicare Part B and supplement it with a Medigap insurance plan sold by a private insurer. After signing up for Medicare Part B, most people have just six months during which they’re “guaranteed issue” for Medigap. “Guaranteed issue” means there’s no medical underwriting when choosing a Medigap plan. After those six months, you could be denied for health reasons. One potential pitfall: If you opt for a Part C Medicare Advantage plan when you’re first eligible for Medicare, you may forever be locked out of the Medigap market if you later want to switch out of Medicare Advantage. The reason: Your health may have deteriorated and you can’t pass the medical underwriting. How do you decide which Medigap plan is best for you? There are 10 different varieties of Medigap plan. In 2018, Medigap Plan F was chosen by 54% of all enrollees. While Medigap plans are standardized in terms of the coverage they provide, costs can vary significantly. Even though Plan F is the most popular, Plan G is the fastest growing—for good reason. Plan G is less expensive than Plan F. The only difference between the two is that Plan F pays the Part B deductible of $185, whereas…
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My Retirement

AS I PLAN MY retirement, I have the advantage of a strong background in finance. I worked for 35 years in the investment field, primarily managing mutual funds. Early on, I obtained the Chartered Financial Analyst designation, which helped immensely. Six years ago, when I was age 55, I embarked on a journey to comprehend the myriad rules and strategies surrounding retirement. I studied to become an RICP—a Retirement Income Certified Professional. While the CFA was useful for investment management, the RICP helped me understand how investments fit with insurance products. From the RICP program, I learned about the 4% rule and planning for a 30-year retirement. But the 4% rule only concerns financial assets. It doesn’t address other income sources, notably Social Security and annuities. I also learned about the “retirement smile,” a term coined by David Blanchett, who analyzed retirees’ spending through retirement. His finding: Retirees’ spending declines steadily in retirement until the later years, when long-term care (LTC) expenses tend to rise. Another major issue: How will your retirement income be taxed? Retirement account withdrawals are taxed at ordinary income tax rates. Regular taxable accounts currently benefit from a favorable capital gains tax rate. Roth, health savings accounts and cash-value life insurance all offer tax-free withdrawals—if done correctly. Since the traditional IRA continues to lose its tax advantages relative to other accounts—the stretch IRA has been slashed to 10 years and account holders are forced to take required minimum distributions starting at age 72—I’ve been looking to shrink my traditional IRA. To that end, I used my IRA to purchase three different deferred income annuities, formally known as QLACs, or qualified longevity annuity contracts. Those will pay me income starting at ages 76, 80 and 85. I also purchased a “period certain” annuity, which will pay me income…
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