FREE NEWSLETTER

What’s gold worth? How long is a piece of string?

Latest PostsAll Discussions »

Why I Own Gold Bars

"Bruce, I think your three levels are well considered. I also keep cash in the house for a type one situation. I am un-prepared for your levels two and three. I have a few acquaintances with stores of food, guns, and ammo, but I have not gone down that road yet.  "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

No, it is not a scam

"Each chemo treatment costs about $24,000 between the chemicals and all related services involved. Of course Medicare does not allow it all, but the majority. Incredible."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Forget the 4% rule.

"You have to agree to receive marketing materials to get the report. "
- R Quinn
Read more »

Always an investor?

"If you're taking RMDs and not spending all of that money, it can make sense to reinvest in a taxable account."
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

Opinions Wanted: Please Reply Freely (I’m used to being called an idiot)

"Do you know, that's a very good point. Thanks for flagging it up, it would never have crossed my mind."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Sector Fund by Stealth

I'VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I've moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent. I'm retired. I don't need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don't need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation; it's nothing more than a risk management decision made at a point in life where I simply don't need the risk. What prompted it was a growing discomfort with something I suspect many everyday investors haven't fully reckoned with: the S&P 500 is no longer quite the animal it once was. A broad market index fund casts a wide net across the economy, and the S&P 500, which tracks the 500 largest US businesses by market value, has long been held up as the sensible default: low cost, well diversified, a bet on the whole rather than any one part of it. A sector fund works differently; it makes a deliberate, concentrated bet on a specific industry. If you believe technology is going to outperform the market as a whole, it gives you the ability to concentrate your capital into exactly the sector your research or gut instinct suspects is going to be the place to be and let it run. The theory behind each is straightforward enough. A broad market fund captures a larger slice of the investment universe and is generally considered the lower-risk path. A sector fund comes with a well-understood trade-off: higher potential returns in good times, sharper drawdowns when sentiment turns. Investors who consciously choose a technology sector fund know what they're signing up for. The risk profile is understood, accepted, and priced into the decision. The problem is that the line between these two things has become a bit fuzzy, and most everyday investors haven't noticed. A handful of technology and technology-related companies (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) have grown so dominant in their market valuations that they now represent a disproportionate share of the entire index. During the last year, the top ten holdings have accounted for roughly a third of the total weight of all 500 companies. The mechanism behind this is simply how the index works. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, meaning the bigger the company, the bigger its slice of the pie. As technology companies scaled their dominance through the 2010s and into the 2020s, their weight within the index ballooned accordingly. The index didn't change its rules; the market just rewarded one particular group of companies so heavily that they came to dominate the scoreboard. This means the investor who bought the S&P 500 believing they were spreading risk broadly across the American economy (energy, healthcare, financials, industrials, consumer staples) owns something that looks quite different to the story they were sold. You buy five hundred companies and a third of your money lands in ten stocks, most of them operating in the same broad technological ecosystem. That is a concentration risk, whether it is labelled as one or not. It's a sector fund “light”, acquired by stealth through the natural mechanics of market-cap weighting. The issue is that millions of everyday investors are carrying a version of that same risk without necessarily knowing it. Although I've used the S&P 500 as an example here, it isn't alone. Most broad-based indexes including developed world trackers will exhibit the same characteristics to varying degrees, because the same companies sit near the top of those indexes too. The MSCI World, often marketed as the global diversifier, allocates somewhere in the region of seventy percent to US equities, and within that, the familiar names reappear. You can cross borders on paper without ever really leaving the room. None of this is an argument against the S&P 500. The concentration reflects real, earned dominance; these companies grew to the top of the index because they genuinely deserved to. And whether my reallocation turns out to be the right call is genuinely unknowable. The concentrated index could continue to outperform for another decade and I'll have left returns on the table, a real possibility I've made my peace with. The point isn't that I've found the correct answer. The point is that I had the information to make a considered choice, weighed it against my own circumstances, and acted accordingly. That's all any investor can do. The uncomfortable truth is that a great many people haven't been given the chance to do the same. They're holding a product that has quietly changed its character, and nobody has thought to mention it. Better information doesn't guarantee better decisions, but it at least puts the decision where it belongs: with the person whose money it is. ___ Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Buffett’s 90/10 is Wrong. Even Though it’s Right.

"Yes, that's my takeaway. But as Mark argues, I customize my numbers to fit my own situation. And I'm still drawn to Jonathan's repeated advice of a globally-diversified stock portfolio supplemented by five to seven years of short-term government bonds. Simple, yet sufficient."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

Allan Roth’s 2/13/26 article references Jonathan Clements

"I learned so much from Jonathan Clements. He was an amazing man both in life and as he approached death with so much dignity."
- Allan Roth
Read more »

Retirement Plan

"Agree with others. I did not get very far into the video. But the message about time is spot on."
- Jerry Pinkard
Read more »

Trump Accounts – An Update

"Gotcha. I misunderstood what it was. I thought he left some lump sum with instructions to have it grow to be used in 200 years (or something like that)."
- Ben Rodriguez
Read more »

Tax Smart Retirement

A POPULAR JOKE about retirement is that it can be hard work. That’s because financial planning is like a jigsaw puzzle, and retirement often means rearranging the pieces. In the past, I’ve discussed two key pieces of that puzzle: how to determine a sustainable portfolio withdrawal rate and how to decide on an effective asset allocation. But there’s one more piece of the puzzle to contend with: taxes. Especially if you’re planning to retire on the earlier side, it’s important to have a tax plan. When it comes to tax planning for retirement, there’s one key principle I see as most important, and that’s the idea that in retirement, the goal is to minimize your total lifetime tax bill. That’s important because a fundamental shift occurs the day that retirement arrives: In contrast to our working years, when taxes are, to a large degree, out of our control, in retirement, taxes are much more within our control. By choosing which investments to sell and which accounts to withdraw from, retirees have the ability to dial their income—and thus their tax rate—up or down in any given year. The challenge, though, is that tax planning can be like the game Whac-A-Mole. Choose a low-tax strategy in one year, and that might cause taxes to run higher in a future year. That’s why—dull as the topic might seem—careful tax planning is important. To get started, I recommend this three-part formula: Step 1 The first step is to arrange your assets for tax-efficiency. This is often referred to as “asset location.” Here’s an example: Suppose you’ve decided on an asset allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. That might be a sensible mix, but that doesn't mean every one of your accounts needs to be invested according to that same 60/40 mix. Instead, to help manage the growth of your pre-tax accounts, and thus the size of future required minimum distributions, pre-tax accounts should be invested as conservatively as possible. On the other hand, if you have Roth assets, you’d want those invested as aggressively as possible. Your taxable assets might carry an allocation that’s somewhere in between. If you can make this change without incurring a tax bill, it’s something I’d do even before you enter retirement. Step 2 How can you avoid the Whac-A-Mole problem referenced above? If you’re approaching retirement, a key goal is to target a specific tax bracket. Then structure things so your taxable income falls into that same bracket more or less every year. By smoothing out your income in this way from year to year, the goal is to avoid ever falling into a very high tax bracket. To determine what tax rate to target, I suggest this process: Look ahead to a year in your late-70s, when your income will include both Social Security and required minimum distributions from your pre-tax retirement accounts. Estimate what your income might be in that future year and see what marginal tax bracket that income would translate to. In doing this exercise, don’t forget other potential income sources. That might include part-time work, a pension, an annuity or a rental property. And if you have significant taxable investment accounts, be sure to include interest from bonds. Then, for simplicity, subtract the standard deduction to estimate your future taxable income. Suppose that totaled up to $175,000. Using this year’s tax brackets, that would put your income in either the 24% marginal bracket (for single taxpayers) or 22% (married filing jointly). You would then use this as your target tax bracket. Step 3 With your target tax bracket in hand, the next step would be to make an income plan for each year. The idea here is to identify which accounts you’ll withdraw from to meet your household spending needs while also adhering to your target tax bracket. This isn’t something you’d map out more than one year in advance. Instead, it’s an exercise you’d repeat at the beginning of each year, using that year’s numbers. What might this look like in practice? Suppose you’re age 65, retired and not yet collecting Social Security. In this case, your income—and thus your tax bracket—might be quite low. To get started, you’d want to withdraw enough from your tax-deferred accounts to meet your spending needs but without exceeding your target tax bracket. This would then bring you to a decision. If you’ve taken enough out of your tax-deferred accounts to meet your spending needs and still haven’t hit your target tax rate, then the next step would be to distribute an additional amount from your pre-tax accounts. But with this additional amount, you’d complete a Roth conversion, moving those dollars into a Roth IRA to grow tax-free from that point forward. How much should you convert? The answer here involves a little bit of judgment but is mostly straightforward: You’d convert just enough to bring your marginal tax bracket up into the target range. Some people prefer to go all the way to the top of their target bracket, while others prefer to back off a bit. The most important thing is just to get into the right neighborhood. What if, on the other hand, you’ve taken enough from your pre-tax accounts to reach your target tax rate, but that still isn’t enough to meet your spending needs? In that case, you wouldn’t take any more from your pre-tax accounts, and you wouldn’t complete any Roth conversions. Instead, you’d turn to your taxable accounts, where the applicable tax brackets will almost certainly be lower. Capital gains brackets currently top out at just 20%. Thus, for the remainder of your spending needs, the most tax-efficient source of funds will be your taxable account. What if you aren’t yet age 59½? Would that upend a plan like this? A common misconception is that withdrawals from pre-tax accounts entail a punitive 10% penalty. While that’s true, it isn’t always true, and there’s more than one way around it. One exception allows withdrawals from a workplace retirement plan like a 401(k) as long as you leave that employer at age 55 or later. In that case, as long as you don’t roll over the account to an IRA, you’d be free to take withdrawals without penalty. If you’re retiring before age 55, you’ll want to learn about Rule 72(t). This allows for withdrawals from pre-tax accounts at any age, as long as you agree to what the IRS refers to as substantially equal periodic payments (SEPP) from your pre-tax assets. The SEPP approach definitely carries restrictions, but if you’re pursuing early retirement, and the bulk of your assets are in pre-tax accounts, this might be just the right solution.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Why I Own Gold Bars

"Bruce, I think your three levels are well considered. I also keep cash in the house for a type one situation. I am un-prepared for your levels two and three. I have a few acquaintances with stores of food, guns, and ammo, but I have not gone down that road yet.  "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

No, it is not a scam

"Each chemo treatment costs about $24,000 between the chemicals and all related services involved. Of course Medicare does not allow it all, but the majority. Incredible."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Forget the 4% rule.

"You have to agree to receive marketing materials to get the report. "
- R Quinn
Read more »

Always an investor?

"If you're taking RMDs and not spending all of that money, it can make sense to reinvest in a taxable account."
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

Opinions Wanted: Please Reply Freely (I’m used to being called an idiot)

"Do you know, that's a very good point. Thanks for flagging it up, it would never have crossed my mind."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Sector Fund by Stealth

I'VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I've moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent. I'm retired. I don't need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don't need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation; it's nothing more than a risk management decision made at a point in life where I simply don't need the risk. What prompted it was a growing discomfort with something I suspect many everyday investors haven't fully reckoned with: the S&P 500 is no longer quite the animal it once was. A broad market index fund casts a wide net across the economy, and the S&P 500, which tracks the 500 largest US businesses by market value, has long been held up as the sensible default: low cost, well diversified, a bet on the whole rather than any one part of it. A sector fund works differently; it makes a deliberate, concentrated bet on a specific industry. If you believe technology is going to outperform the market as a whole, it gives you the ability to concentrate your capital into exactly the sector your research or gut instinct suspects is going to be the place to be and let it run. The theory behind each is straightforward enough. A broad market fund captures a larger slice of the investment universe and is generally considered the lower-risk path. A sector fund comes with a well-understood trade-off: higher potential returns in good times, sharper drawdowns when sentiment turns. Investors who consciously choose a technology sector fund know what they're signing up for. The risk profile is understood, accepted, and priced into the decision. The problem is that the line between these two things has become a bit fuzzy, and most everyday investors haven't noticed. A handful of technology and technology-related companies (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) have grown so dominant in their market valuations that they now represent a disproportionate share of the entire index. During the last year, the top ten holdings have accounted for roughly a third of the total weight of all 500 companies. The mechanism behind this is simply how the index works. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, meaning the bigger the company, the bigger its slice of the pie. As technology companies scaled their dominance through the 2010s and into the 2020s, their weight within the index ballooned accordingly. The index didn't change its rules; the market just rewarded one particular group of companies so heavily that they came to dominate the scoreboard. This means the investor who bought the S&P 500 believing they were spreading risk broadly across the American economy (energy, healthcare, financials, industrials, consumer staples) owns something that looks quite different to the story they were sold. You buy five hundred companies and a third of your money lands in ten stocks, most of them operating in the same broad technological ecosystem. That is a concentration risk, whether it is labelled as one or not. It's a sector fund “light”, acquired by stealth through the natural mechanics of market-cap weighting. The issue is that millions of everyday investors are carrying a version of that same risk without necessarily knowing it. Although I've used the S&P 500 as an example here, it isn't alone. Most broad-based indexes including developed world trackers will exhibit the same characteristics to varying degrees, because the same companies sit near the top of those indexes too. The MSCI World, often marketed as the global diversifier, allocates somewhere in the region of seventy percent to US equities, and within that, the familiar names reappear. You can cross borders on paper without ever really leaving the room. None of this is an argument against the S&P 500. The concentration reflects real, earned dominance; these companies grew to the top of the index because they genuinely deserved to. And whether my reallocation turns out to be the right call is genuinely unknowable. The concentrated index could continue to outperform for another decade and I'll have left returns on the table, a real possibility I've made my peace with. The point isn't that I've found the correct answer. The point is that I had the information to make a considered choice, weighed it against my own circumstances, and acted accordingly. That's all any investor can do. The uncomfortable truth is that a great many people haven't been given the chance to do the same. They're holding a product that has quietly changed its character, and nobody has thought to mention it. Better information doesn't guarantee better decisions, but it at least puts the decision where it belongs: with the person whose money it is. ___ Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Buffett’s 90/10 is Wrong. Even Though it’s Right.

"Yes, that's my takeaway. But as Mark argues, I customize my numbers to fit my own situation. And I'm still drawn to Jonathan's repeated advice of a globally-diversified stock portfolio supplemented by five to seven years of short-term government bonds. Simple, yet sufficient."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

Allan Roth’s 2/13/26 article references Jonathan Clements

"I learned so much from Jonathan Clements. He was an amazing man both in life and as he approached death with so much dignity."
- Allan Roth
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 20: FRUGALITY isn’t just the key to financial success. It’s also no great sacrifice, because spending often brings only fleeting happiness—and sometimes even pangs of regret.

act

TAKE ADVANTAGE of your growing wealth. You might avoid interest charges by paying cash for your next car, rather than borrowing. You could minimize financial account fees by always keeping the required minimum balance. You might trim insurance premiums by raising deductibles and lengthening elimination periods, and perhaps even opting to self-insure.

Truths

NO. 96: IF YOU HAVE children, you will retire later. The all-in cost of raising kids through age 18 can run to hundreds of thousands of dollars, with college costs and financial help to adult children on top of that. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have kids. But there’s a financial tradeoff involved—and one result of having children is you’ll likely retire later.

think

FOCUSING ILLUSION. Those with high incomes or significant wealth are more likely to say they’re happy. But this could be a focusing illusion. When asked about their happiness, the well-to-do ponder their good fortune—and that prompts them to say they’re happy. But are they? Research also suggests high-income earners suffer more stress and anger during the day.

Big ideas

Manifesto

NO. 20: FRUGALITY isn’t just the key to financial success. It’s also no great sacrifice, because spending often brings only fleeting happiness—and sometimes even pangs of regret.

Spotlight: Investing

Build Your Own?

THE LATEST BIG NEWS in the money management world: Vanguard Group said it had completed the acquisition of Just Invest, while Franklin Templeton announced it was buying O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. With these purchases, the two firms entered the direct indexing arena in a big way.
Direct indexing—or custom indexing—involves using quantitative tools to tailor a portfolio’s individual stock and bond holdings to each investor’s preferences. Say you don’t want to own tobacco stocks. No problem.

Read more »

Buying Everything

IN A FEW YEARS, my wife and I will have additional income, thanks to both Social Security benefits and required minimum distributions from our IRAs. Our thought: Any money we don’t spend from these two income streams we’ll invest for the long term. We wanted to keep this money separate from our other investments, so we opened a new joint brokerage account at Vanguard Group.
We decided to invest our extra cash in the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (symbol: VT).

Read more »

Here for the Duration

BONDS ARE OFTEN SEEN as the safe harbor in a retiree’s portfolio. But that sure hasn’t been the case this year.
As the long era of easy monetary policy—one that dates back to 2008—has come to an end, bond owners have been handed hefty losses. With interest rates rising and the Federal Reserve tightening, many investors have come to understand the risks they run with bonds.
Was there a way to know the risk beforehand?

Read more »

My Favorite Fund

IF YOU WORKED AT Vanguard Group, you felt like a kid in a candy store when it came to picking investments. There were so many well-run, low-cost funds to try. Yet my favorite fund wasn’t offered as an investment option in the Vanguard 401(k) plan. Ironically, it’s the fund that made Vanguard’s reputation.
Vanguard opened its S&P 500 index fund (symbol: VFIAX) in 1976. This first commercially offered index fund was designed to earn the U.S.

Read more »

Telling Tales

WHEN I WAS IN SCHOOL, corporate executives often visited for guest lectures. Two of these presentations still stand out in my mind.
The first was the CEO of a company then called Flextronics—now simply Flex. It’s a contract manufacturer that assembles products for other companies. Apple, for example, doesn’t have factories of its own and instead relies on outsourcers like Flex to build its products, usually in Asia.
You might wonder why a presentation like this would be memorable.

Read more »

This Is Only a Test

I RECENTLY READ AN article in Barron’s that inadvertently revealed two more reasons investing in broad-based index funds is the only sensible course of action.
The article, titled “This ‘Crazy’ Retirement Portfolio Has Just Beaten Wall Street for 50 Years,” touted the “All Asset No Authority” (AANA) portfolio. This “simple portfolio” consists of splitting your money equally among U.S. large-company stocks (S&P 500), U.S. small-company stocks (Russell 2000), developed international stocks (MSCI’s Europe,

Read more »

Spotlight: Berard

Why, Oh , Why ?

Please, why would anybody buy any actively traded fund, especially in the large market cap category and especially in conventional accounts? As a whole, every investor , large and small, must collectively earn less than the market's return.  For every buyer there is a seller, of course, and once bid-ask spreads, fees, etc., are factored in, there has to be a slight loss. Also,  the active funds, due to the frequent trading , often have returns that are often  30, 40 or 50 percent lower, after taxes and sale of shares.   In  traditional, non tax sheltered venues, the difference between gross and net,  is tremendous.  Even in tax sheltered accounts, you are still paying much higher annual fees. I don't know if it still exists, but a few years ago, there was an S and P 500 fund that charged a 3 % load, and an annual fee of 1.2 percent. Why are there still funds that charge sales loads, period? If no one bought them, would they not go extinct? 2) Why do so many people buy or lease very expensive vehicles, take out, in many cases, 8 year loans, and then complain about the "high" price of the premium fuel it requires?    Why don't they care about the hundreds of bucks in monthly payments, the high insurance costs, the high repair and service costs. And the depreciation of the very fancy, fussy German brands , and Jaguar, Land Rover,etc., is much worse than the much more reliable Japanese car makers, just compare the resale value of a used MB, Audi to virtually any Toyota product. I know why the politicians mention gas prices constantly, they know that is an issue with so many Americans, and they are trying to relate. A lot of consumers  are angry that their fancy BMW , or Audi or Jeep, ( A Jeep Grand Wagoneer can easily set you back 120 k, plus the financing), is far less reliable than a ten year old Toyota Corolla with 150 grand miles on it. In this case, all of that extra money buys you more electronics, more computer modules, 10 speed aut0matic transmissions, etc., but, makes the car less reliable. Sometimes just doing a brake job on a fancy  car requires reprogramming multiple computers, before the car will move. This one really takes the cake. Most automakers have eliminated the dipstick to check transmission fluid, because no one ever checked it anyway. Now, many are eliminating the oil dipstick, and having the owner rely on scrolling through multiple complicated computer interfaces, etc. This has led to many engine failures and much profit for the auto makers. Something as basic as checking the oil should not rely on computers. And, finally, for anybody whom has read all so far, not many, I bet, I say: When I get a tad overwhelmed by everything, and I sometimes feel I have not lived up to my expectations, and so forth,and I think of my far too many mistakes , I will call the dog for a walk. As we walk our  usual route, and she happily trots, very rarely lifting her nose from the ground, tail wagging, she is having the  time of her life. When she spots a cat or wood- chuck or a rabbit, she has the strength of Hercules and one day I shall don roller skates so she can pull me. She has no bank account , no money, or bills. As long as her dish is filled, and she eats exactly the same food every day, and she has water,she  is content. She also rides in the car as often as possible , indeed, as soon as I grab the keys she starts bouncing , and heads for the garage at full tilt. There is also at least one group of people that live in Papua, New Guinea, and their lifestyle has not changed in thousands of years. They also have no money,  or anything other than very basic shelter. They have zero contact with outsiders, and are perfectly happy the way they are. The shelters are built 80 feet high in trees, as protection from ant enemy. I am getting a bit long winded as usual, but, the point I am trying to make is sometimes simpler is better. I am not suggesting we live like dogs or tribes residing in isolation. I just feel better, by just attempting to keep things simpler, and if I have a house that suits my needs, and I can get to the places I need to go with my car, that's fine. I don't need to continue on the hedonistic treadmill, because there will always be someone with a nicer house, a faster car, and so forth. When my wife and I go away for a few days, and a family member takes care of Jill, the dog, she refuses to eat, will not go for a walk, and stays on her bed, for a few days. Then she will reluctantly take a short walk, eat a bit, but she is  not her usual self. When we return, she acts like I am the greatest thing ever, and she will not leave me alone for at least 30 minutes. It is a tremendous feeling to know how much I mean to her, it really is, and did I mention that the tribe in Papua also have no psychiatrists, psychologists, and no suicides?  
Read more »

Things That Make Me Go, HUH?

Popcorn is a food item that in many cases, is marked up in price by an infinite amount. In many restaurants, pubs, etc., popcorn is available for free, yet, movie theaters sell a box for many dollars. Did you know that theaters make most of their money on food and drink, rather than the tickets? I feel that marking up prices to infinity, may be the reason. 2) I see many large pick up trucks, many with dual wheels, being driven with the tailgate open. That is because the owners think it gets them better mileage, alas, it is not true. Tests have been done showing that it matters not at all, whether the tailgate is up or down, the air tends to stay in the bed of the truck, it doesn't push against the closed tailgate. However, with it open, there is a high risk it could fall off, and it poses a danger of someone hitting it,not only another car, but maybe a bicycle rider, crossing behind you. If you have the dough to buy a very expensive truck, and pay high insurance, and those huge tires, and you probably financed the thing for many years, is it worth even trying to save a few pennies, by a failed strategy? The average price for a new vehicle is around 45 grand. Fancy trucks,with four wheel drive, can easily cost over 100 grand , and when it is financed over many years, that goes up quite a bit.  Another big expense with all wheel and four wheel drive is often , if a single tire is damaged and cannot be fixed, you must buy 4 or 6 new tires, otherwise, you will damage the complicated drive systems.  The cost of many things with a large truck , other than fuel, are the real  wealth busters. At least in my circles, when fuel was lower in price, the same people whom are complaining now, still didn't have a rock solid financial future or strategy, and they were no better off a few years prior , then they are now. I suspect the reason is they simply spent extra the money on blue hair, tattoos, and 15 dollar bottles of water. And speaking of water, I have expressed my views on how insanely expensive  bottled water is, and, after doing some research, have discovered that tap water, with very few exceptions, is more highly regulated and monitored than bottled water. It is usually fresher, ( A notable exception is Flint  Michigan), bottled water can sit in warehouses, trucks, etc., for a long time. And again, I will never agree that paying, in many cases, well over a hundred bucks for a gallon water, is a beautiful thing. Sorry. ( My previous post on water included the fact that my water bill for a whole year was 158 bucks, or, .003 CENTS per gallon. I had it tested and it easily exceeds standards) I went to the pharmacy to buy some aspirin, the big name brand bottle was 3 times the price of the generic, I looked at the chemical makeup on the label, the 2 were identical, yet, the store sells 4 times more of the more expensive brand. Why might that be? Jewelry is another product that is tremendously marked up. A thousand percent markup is the minimum, and many,including me, have been stunned to discover that, when trying to sell a fancy gold something, it will be weighed, and you will get a bit less than the value of the metal. it matters not how fancy and beautiful it might be. Way back in 2008, the time of the housing meltdown, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, etc., the markets tanked, and where I worked, 97 people stopped contributing to their 401(k), and they also cashed out, 3 people did nothing, and 1 person, increased his contribution from 10 to 15 percent. The one person had recently read Ben Grahams book, etc. I will protect his privacy, but, he is a bit short, fat, has red hair and freckles and a funny last name. Although that was a wise decision, his fails are far more numerous, and if he out lives Methuselah, he has a slim chance of turning positive. Don't hold your breath. Why, oh why, do so many otherwise astute people, feel that investments are somehow safer the higher they go, and riskier as they drop? Why do so many , that have decades ahead of them, fail to at least save some money?  The Dow started last century at 66, and ended I am guessing, around 30,000, I think? Finally, thank the Lord, and you are welcome, when I increased my contributions back 16 years ago, a vast majority felt I had surely taken leave of my senses. Oh well. A brief note here, if I may. A friends daughter recently bought a very used BMW SUV with 86,000 miles on it.A large loan was required, and, she also bought a Toyota Corolla, as a "beater", for the winter. And, surprise, it didn't end well, a week or 2 after the used car warranty expired, which was 3 months, the Bimmer or Beamer, decided it would be very exciting to have a connecting rod break and pierce the engine block, then , for more thrills, it caught on fire. This nice lady worked for 15 bucks an hour, and was stuck with a loan for many years, for nothing. The insurance value was way under what she owed. The Toyota now has over 300 k miles with no major problems. To all of the great education people, teachers, and principals and school boards and the like, could you consider changing the curriculum a tad, and make personal finance, etc., mandatory? How to responsibly use money, make investments, avoid too much debt? Could we at least try it?
Read more »

Conflicting News

I am certainly nearer the end of my life than the beginning. and I thought it wise to ask around, talking with everyday people, trying to get a good, accurate analysis of the overall economic outlook. Some may find this silly, after all, why  not just heed the advice and wisdom of all of the experts, offering their views on market conditions, the direction of interest rates, both short and long term, etc.  But, nothing ventured, nothing gained. My plumber said he was " bursting at the seams with work", alas, the electrician stated, "I'm shocked how much business is down." My cousin, whom works for a railroad, told me, "We are on track for record profits!" The optometrist was convinced that " He sees a lot of great things, economically", and my audiologist was" hearing a lot of great news." My friend is in mining, sadly, his business is " a little rocky". A cousin works at a marina, thankfully," He saw "smooth sailing" ahead. A pilot buddy was thrilled his business was " really taking off", and the elevator people said business was " very volatile", soaring highs to plunging lows. My arborist was thrilled he was " branching out, more and more." The basement waterproofing company was doing well, even as its work was "drying up". My barber was concerned during Covid, it was a "close shave", but he survived. The restaurant people had "a lot on their plate", but the mortician said his business was "dead". The nutritionist weighed in with her opinion, and the fireworks seller's business was booming. The treadmill people were just "running in place", of course the meteorologist was concerned about turbulence, and the ornithologist was worried about his  nest egg. The lady whom makes honey is," busy as a bee". The musician said he worked hard " drumming up work", the band CSNY said, There's Something Happening Here, What it is Ain't Exactly Clear'. Pink Floyd is in favor of cash , "Money, its a gas, grab that cash with both hands and make a stash". With the huge deficit our government is running, Jackson Browne feels we are " Running On Empty", but the movie people like fixed income, " Bonds, James Bonds." Whew. The furniture maker was , " Getting down to brass tacks," alas, the HVAC guy was sad, " His business was " cooling down".  The ATV maker was, " stuck in the mud, and the florist said, " everything is coming up roses", and the auto mechanic was " firing on all cylinders", and finally, the diaper people said their business was finally "bottoming out". And now my rock solid, 100 percent accurate prediction, on the future of the financial markets, " THEY  WILL FLUCTUATE TREMENDOUSLY". Thank you so much everybody for all of the kind words, much appreciated, truly. But, I forgot, I spoke with Richard Petty former race car driver, he said things were “ revving up”, and yes, it was a Buffalo Springfield song. The old memory is fading, fast! I just stopped at a bar for one quick one, the bartender said business was “ pour”, but Orville Redenbacher , his business was starting to pop. At the local hemp store, sales were smoking, and an astronomer said interest in space is” out of this world”! The cab driver was doing “ Farely well”, and at the sky diving place, everybody was hoping for a “ soft landing “. Meanwhile on Broadway, leading experts are predicting that investments will bounce around, “ Like A Cat On A hot Tin Roof”, and its “ A stock pickers market”, so, pick up those Christmas stockings, early. And , with cash in money markets at around 6, trillion, active fund managers are eagerly waiting for that cash to be invested in stocks and bonds, shhh, do not share with them that when somebody buys, someone else is selling! The newer cars are much more reliable than previously, my buddy drives a tow truck, business is “ dragging, at the rodeo, they arE” bucking the trend “, and farmers are “ sowing the seeds” and “ harvesting gains”. Bon Dylan wrote, “ Talking Bear Mountain Picnic Blues”, it’s all about an investment he made, concerning Bigfoot, bad food and mushrooms or something.  
Read more »

The USA, an Amazing Nation. And the UK, Also Amazing

As a country with only a couple of centuries under its belt, I think that our nation has beaten the odds. When the intrepid souls left England and crossed the pond to start a new country, what were the odds of success? England was a tremendous world power, a strong navy, territories covering the globe, etc., and it must have seemed foolhardy to fight that. Yet, here we are, and thanks to the native Americans, and the millions of immigrants that have come here from 200 nations, we are the world leader in many categories. Our business friendly policies, and our government so willing to help new businesses and entrepreneurs and the like, have enabled so many to start businesses and thrive, from mom and pop pizza parlors and service stations, to high tech companies and so forth. My favorite restaurant is owned by people born in Greece, computer repair by a great guy from Japan, and my house was built by nice people born in Portugal. The general contractor that built the small addition is from Italy. My kin came from Canada, France, Russia and Finland and they never regretted it. In New York City, something like 800 languages are used, showing the variety of the population. Of course it is vital to have allies, and when a mad man tried to conquer the world about 80 years ago, we all banded together , and defeated The Third Reich , and lets hope that no more wars costing the lives of 80 million people should occur. Winston Churchill, the brilliant Prime Minister, was very worried about the outcome of the war, prior to the Pearl Harbor attacks. He traveled across the Atlantic, pleading with FDR , to have us enter the war. Roosevelt refused, but after December 7, 1941, our congress voted for war. Churchill wrote," Only after hearing of the attacks on Pearl Harbor was I able to sleep fitfully, through the night, as I knew once America entered the fray, the outcome was no longer in doubt". Our stock market cap is 60%  of the worlds total, even though we are only 4% of theat nations. a  population. Our 3 largest companies are 10% of the total.The dollar is the reserve currency and our treasuries are the gold standard for safety , stability and liquidity. In my opinion, The United Kingdom is tied with us, for great nations ,as are  others, no, not North Korea. It is amazing that with countries like Sweden and Norway and dozens more, that we hear so much about not so terrific places, and much less about good places, and I will leave it at that. Bad news makes the money, I guess. Now , another vital topic, the number of superbly talented musicians that are from The United Kingdom. The  Beatles, The Rolling Stones, The Kinks, Rod Stewart. Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, Robert Palmer and Elton John. Joe Cocker. Dire Straights. The Who. Graham Nash. And so many more. The number of musical talents is way out of proportion to the population, and I, for one, am grateful. There is something there that ensures England produces such a wealth of talent. It is similar to the number of superb long distance runners that come from a very small part of Africa, way too many for it to be chance. Whatever it may be, please, continue. Finally, and you are welcome, I recently added a bit of umbrella insurance liability coverage. I had a million dollar policy that cost a modest 800,yearly, and for  a mere 169 dollars more,I doubled it to 2 million.  The horrific proliferation of personal injury ads on tv and print media spurred me into action. I am shocked and also horrified, it appears that a litany of  lawyers are so driven by money! Who would have thought that? Now, I am barely 5' 8" tall , but a whopping 251 lbs, ( I prefer to use kilograms, actually, then I am "only" 114),so, a  doubling of the rain umbrella was necessary, also*. My doctor wants me to shed some significant tonnage, insulted, I  asked for a second opinion. " Sure, your nose is too big!", she replied.   *A few years ago, after having surgery, I was walking the halls, helped by 2  nurses, and another one near, alas, the little dinky johnny they force you to wear opened in the back. There were many people behind me, and I heard gasps of shock and horror ,people fainting ,etc.. So far, no lawsuits, but, one cannot be too careful. More secure ties are now required on hospital gowns.  
Read more »

Advertisements, Commercials, etc.

As I keep getting older, I strive mightily to at least slow down the process, alas,  all of my heroic efforts are in vain, those darn birthdays just keep on coming, like clockwork, and I have finally thrown in the towel and accept it. However, as I age, I find myself getting increasingly annoyed at things that just waste so much time. Specifically, ads of any type, and at the top of the list are  pop up ads, which do nothing positive for me. Until recently, I would just hit the x, but every day it is worse than a game of whack-a mole. I now write down the name of the sponsor, and vow to never buy or use any of their products, if I have a choice. Second are the truly maddening amount of ads during television sporting events, especially football and baseball. It has gotten so bad, sometimes during pauses, , the ads are on a split screen , sharing space with the game. Are not the ads between every inning in baseball and the tremendous number and length of them during football games sufficient? In boxing, every 3 minutes comes horrible commercials. To make matters worse, sometimes plays are missed, as the commercial is too long and the TV station drops the ball, and doesn't return quickly enough. To all of you advertisers, if I have a choice , I will never buy any of your products, as long as you continue to drive me crazy with your horrible, deceiving and BORING ads. The ads are also way too loud, and many have them people singing, usually, terribly off key, about the virtues of prescription drugs and so forth. I did find out why the ads are so annoyingly loud. The shows, events and ads all have a maximum volume level allowed, which is the same for everybody. However, the entire ad is usually played at the highest level allowed, while the shows have only occasional max levels. For example, a gunshot on a cop show, the crowd roaring , etc., are high volume,and the rest of the show is usually quieter,  but , on the ad, especially a certain guy screaming in a raspy voice about pillows, the entire ad is played at close to max levels. And no, to all of the beer and hard liquor people, you will never convince me that drinking alcohol, no matter the venue, will make me a more attractive person, will allow me to have more fun, etc.  I do enjoy a drink a few times a week, but I know far too many people whom messed up their lives and lives around them, by drinking way too much alcohol. The tobacco people have been sued, they cannot advertise on TV, etc., but beer, wine and whiskey ads are far too common, in my view. How about some limitation on the alcohol ads? To the ad people, are you really convinced that pop up ads , etc., intruding constantly , is a wise method to get people to buy your products? Why do you feel that way, please? I have often discussed with my bride of five years, my desire to move to Vermont, some day. It is a very rural state, no large or even medium sized cities, beautiful scenery, great people, and, I don't know if Vermont is unique in this regard, but, billboards are not allowed!
Read more »

Food For Thought?

There is a fund run by Cathie Wood, the ticker is, ARKK ,Ark innovation fund, it gets a negative rating from Morningstar, alas, perhaps with the climate change, it could be suitable if we ever get another flood of biblical proportions? There is an old movie, " Arachnophobia", about some troublesome spiders. I suggest to buy the S and P the Standard and Poors  Depository receipts,  Spiders fund, perhaps. For the hep and cool cats, I suggest trading both AT and T, and Citigroup, symbols T and C. In an attempt to help those wonderful beings with wings, I suggest the " Fallen Angels," high yield bond. For our wonderful military personnel, the Vanguard Short treasury, symbol, VGSH, so, " Very good, sir, hut"! Is a "short sale", the reason I keep losing the regattas? And is a "covered call", when your broker covers the mouthpiece on the phone, to whisper to a co-worker? I think a "put" happens after a drive , when the ball is on the green? And,  I made a margin call the other night at dinner. The butter ran out, so I shouted to the wife, " Honey, can you bring some margin for the bread"? " Yield to worst", is when you are driving, and there is a horrible driver, so, even though you have the green light, you " yield to worst", driver, to avoid an accident. " Maturity" is when the 30 year old scotch is ready and a "long term corporate bond", is a life long friendship with a co-worker. " Timing the market", that's getting to the grocery as soon as the fresh fruit is put out. If you do well in the stock market, you can get more "options" on your car, and "junk bonds", make you reluctant to sell the family scrap yard. CDS are great for your (johnny) Cash music, too. And, luckily for the free world, I am finished. I feel a bit dizzy, now, henceforth I need to "rebalance".   I also need to bathe the grandson, and I shall never, "throw the baby out with the bathwater." I went to Wall Street, Wal-Mart has a store there, and Pink Floyd's, The Wall was playing. I ran into Wally Cox and Wally, Beaver's older brother. I was hoping to see The Great Wallenda, tightrope guy, no soap. Finally, is a ticker symbol a generic term for an EKG?  I know you feel my humor is quite without humor so,  Would you believe, I went to a Staples store recently, and they had no staples!      
Read more »