Expect less from the dollars you spend and the investments you buy—and your life will be full of pleasant surprises.
HOW DO YOU COMPETE in an investment contest when you’re a firm believer that investors can’t consistently beat the market averages? That was my dilemma several years ago.
A school not far from where I taught was given money by an alumnus to endow the St. Louis Area Collegiate Investment Contest. All colleges and universities in the area are invited to participate in the competition, which is held regularly. Each is given a hypothetical $1 million and asked to select 20 value stocks. An outside investment firm oversees the contest. They “invest” $50,000 in each of the 20 stocks. Whoever’s portfolio is worth the most two years later wins $10,000—real dollars, that is.
How do we select the 20 stocks for our entry? When I explain the contest to students, I also discuss the evidence that most investors don’t outperform the market. I suggest we could tape the stock pages of The Wall Street Journal to the wall and literally throw darts at it. Several students like this option.
But instead, I distribute Value Line’s current list of 100 stocks most likely to outperform the stock market over the next year. To focus on value stocks, I take these 100 stocks deemed most likely to outperform, circle the 40 or so companies with the lowest price-earnings ratios and ask students to select stocks from this list.
Value Line Investment Survey, which is often available at larger libraries, evaluates approximately 1,700 stocks. Value Line gives each stock a timeliness rating from one to five, indicating its belief that the stock will outperform the market over the next year. My initial list for the students draws on those stocks rated one for timeliness.
Rating Number of Stocks Meaning
1 100 Most likely to outperform
2 300
3 900
4 300
5 100 Least likely to outperform
Value Line has a full-page analysis of each of these 1,700 stocks. Each stock gets a full review every 13 weeks, which means each week it updates this detailed analysis for about 130 stocks. But each week, all 1,700 stocks are evaluated for timeliness.
Some 30 or 40 years ago, there were a few academic studies indicating that Value Line could outperform the market averages. I have seen no recent independent studies of Value Line. My guess is that any advantage Value Line might have had decades ago no longer exists.
While I don’t believe Value Line will outperform the market, it’s one way to narrow down the list of potential stocks. It’s definitely safer than letting college students throw darts in a classroom.
Six schools entered the first contest. We won, receiving $10,000 and an oversized check. I took the check to our next faculty meeting and bragged about our business students. Most faculty assumed I had superior stock-picking skills, and I did not disabuse them of that view. But in my heart, I firmly believed it was just luck.
Six years later, we won again. If six schools enter each year, we ought to win about every six years. I didn’t point out that obvious fact when I went to the faculty meeting with that oversized check.
The very next year, we won again. Did that indicate we had a winning method? No. If six schools enter, and if the winner is completely random, the chance of this year’s winner winning again next year is one out of six. While my method of picking stocks might be superior, I believe two wins in a row is simply a random occurrence.
Recently, the contest was modified. Instead of starting just once a year, it now starts every semester. The payoff for winning was reduced from $10,000 once a year to $5,000 each semester. The number of participating schools has dropped to just four or five, increasing our odds of winning each contest.
Although I'm now retired, our school continues to follow the above method. Over the years, we have won $35,000. We call it our slush fund. Our department has used that money for additional faculty enrichment opportunities, student awards, end-of-the-year catered dinners for graduates and their families, and a host of other good causes. Perhaps most important, our finance students have learned some important lessons about how the stock market works.
Larry Sayler is the only person with a Wharton MBA who also graduated from Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey’s Clown College. Earlier in his career, he served as CFO for three manufacturing and service organizations. For 16 years before his retirement, Larry taught accounting at a small Christian college in the Midwest. His brother Kenyon also writes for HumbleDollar. Check out Larry's earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]NO. 2: WE GET one shot at making the financial journey from here to retirement—and failure is not an option, so we should save like crazy, avoid big investment bets and insure against major risks.
NO. 2: WE FOCUS on today—and shortchange tomorrow. Our nomadic ancestors didn’t worry about the long term. Instead, they focused on surviving today, which meant consuming as much as they could whenever they could. Those instincts live on within us, driving our spending, saving and investing behavior—and causing long-term financial damage.
CHECK YOUR retirement readiness. Try the simple calculators from AARP and Vanguard Group. Neither requires you to create an account. Each will give you a somewhat different assessment—a reminder that such projections are a rough-and-ready business. Still, you should get a sense for whether you're on track for a comfortable retirement or off the rails.
NO. 104: SHIFTS IN investor sentiment—as reflected in the stock market’s rising and falling price-earnings ratio—become less important as our time horizon lengthens. Instead, for investors who hold diversified stock portfolios for decades, what matters is the stock market's starting dividend yield and subsequent growth in earnings per share.
NO. 2: WE GET one shot at making the financial journey from here to retirement—and failure is not an option, so we should save like crazy, avoid big investment bets and insure against major risks.
I HATE BUYING CARS. I can’t think of too many sales transactions that are more loathsome. When I look back at all the times I purchased a car, the one with my father in 1976 was the most memorable.
I needed a new car. I was living in San Diego and often driving to Los Angeles to visit family and friends. My 1966 Volkswagen Beetle couldn’t take too many more trips.
I asked my father if he wanted to come with me to look at new cars.
OKINAWA IS A JAPANESE island that is southeast of mainland Japan and about two hours and 40 minutes from Tokyo by plane. It is famous for fierce Second World War battles and currently houses about 26,000 U.S. military personnel. From 2006 to 2008, I was one of these military personnel, working as an emergency physician in the naval hospital.
Okinawa, my new dream come true. Going to Okinawa was not my first choice.
A CRUCIAL STEP WHEN buying a preowned car is to scrutinize its Carfax report. A single-owner car with a regular maintenance history and which was driven solely for personal use should be a safe bet, while an accident record gives most people pause. All things being equal, a car that was in an accident, however minor, ought to cost less than a similar one with a clean history.
Some bargain hunters don’t mind taking a chance on a car with an accident history as long as it drives well.
THIS PAST YEAR marked my 50th anniversary of driving. Over that time, our family has owned 19 cars and driven them roughly 1.9 million miles. While latte purchases frequently evoke financial debate, cars seem less discussed, despite being Americans’ second-largest expenditure after housing. The purchase, ownership, maintenance and sale of cars can all get pretty complicated.
Cars are considered a depreciating asset, but not always. My first car was a 1967 Mercury Comet, which I bought for $400 in 1973.
IT HAS BEEN THREE months since we closed on the sale of our home and drove away from the storage unit that contains everything we couldn’t donate, sell, give away or take with us. It was a big decision to have no fixed abode, and we feel great about it.
We’re about to move our rambling lifestyle across the pond to spend some time in the U.K. and continental Europe, and we have no return date in mind.
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HOW DO YOU COMPETE in an investment contest when you’re a firm believer that investors can’t consistently beat the market averages? That was my dilemma several years ago.
A school not far from where I taught was given money by an alumnus to endow the St. Louis Area Collegiate Investment Contest. All colleges and universities in the area are invited to participate in the competition, which is held regularly. Each is given a hypothetical $1 million and asked to select 20 value stocks. An outside investment firm oversees the contest. They “invest” $50,000 in each of the 20 stocks. Whoever’s portfolio is worth the most two years later wins $10,000—real dollars, that is.
How do we select the 20 stocks for our entry? When I explain the contest to students, I also discuss the evidence that most investors don’t outperform the market. I suggest we could tape the stock pages of The Wall Street Journal to the wall and literally throw darts at it. Several students like this option.
But instead, I distribute Value Line’s current list of 100 stocks most likely to outperform the stock market over the next year. To focus on value stocks, I take these 100 stocks deemed most likely to outperform, circle the 40 or so companies with the lowest price-earnings ratios and ask students to select stocks from this list.
Value Line Investment Survey, which is often available at larger libraries, evaluates approximately 1,700 stocks. Value Line gives each stock a timeliness rating from one to five, indicating its belief that the stock will outperform the market over the next year. My initial list for the students draws on those stocks rated one for timeliness.
Rating Number of Stocks Meaning
1 100 Most likely to outperform
2 300
3 900
4 300
5 100 Least likely to outperform
Value Line has a full-page analysis of each of these 1,700 stocks. Each stock gets a full review every 13 weeks, which means each week it updates this detailed analysis for about 130 stocks. But each week, all 1,700 stocks are evaluated for timeliness.
Some 30 or 40 years ago, there were a few academic studies indicating that Value Line could outperform the market averages. I have seen no recent independent studies of Value Line. My guess is that any advantage Value Line might have had decades ago no longer exists.
While I don’t believe Value Line will outperform the market, it’s one way to narrow down the list of potential stocks. It’s definitely safer than letting college students throw darts in a classroom.
Six schools entered the first contest. We won, receiving $10,000 and an oversized check. I took the check to our next faculty meeting and bragged about our business students. Most faculty assumed I had superior stock-picking skills, and I did not disabuse them of that view. But in my heart, I firmly believed it was just luck.
Six years later, we won again. If six schools enter each year, we ought to win about every six years. I didn’t point out that obvious fact when I went to the faculty meeting with that oversized check.
The very next year, we won again. Did that indicate we had a winning method? No. If six schools enter, and if the winner is completely random, the chance of this year’s winner winning again next year is one out of six. While my method of picking stocks might be superior, I believe two wins in a row is simply a random occurrence.
Recently, the contest was modified. Instead of starting just once a year, it now starts every semester. The payoff for winning was reduced from $10,000 once a year to $5,000 each semester. The number of participating schools has dropped to just four or five, increasing our odds of winning each contest.
Although I'm now retired, our school continues to follow the above method. Over the years, we have won $35,000. We call it our slush fund. Our department has used that money for additional faculty enrichment opportunities, student awards, end-of-the-year catered dinners for graduates and their families, and a host of other good causes. Perhaps most important, our finance students have learned some important lessons about how the stock market works.
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Around the Obstacles
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- My continued employment as a delivery driver would likely have left me on Social Security Disability (SSDI) by age 55.
- I was very interested in personal finance, and knew many people in that field who would help me get my foot in the door.
- I had acquired bookkeeping, payroll, and tax prep skills through my involvement with my local union, though I never pictured myself as the type to sit behind a desk, in a dimly lit office, crunching numbers beneath the glow of one of those green shade banker’s lamps.
- As a last resort, I could fall back on my truck driving skills, using my commercial drivers license to get a job hauling ‘no-touch’ freight of some sort.
- Last but not least, I needed a place to live. “Hello, mom and dad, I need my room back”. Sleeping on the twin mattress I gave up 25 years earlier, was not part of my plan.
- I was determined not to let my occupation as a beer truck driver dictate my future job prospects.
Where did I want to be?- Where to live? Living with the folks was never meant to be a long term thing. After three months of that, I signed my first ever apartment lease as a lessee, as opposed to a lessor. That lasted two years, until a very large increase in the rent caused me to buy a duplex, and become a lessor again.
- Where to work? I continued my work as a delivery driver for three more years. My position as the local union president, and my five paid weeks of vacation actually kept me off of the truck much of the time. That enabled me to tolerate the maladies that would eventually force me out of that job. Having absolutely no desire to spend the balance of my life languishing on SSDI and a minimal IRA balance, I set off on the path to becoming a financial services guy. That did not work out, and if you want more information on that, here’s a link.
- To make ends meet, I turned to my last resort; driving a truck. Piloting an 18-wheeler was not how I envisioned my remaining working days. And although the freight was ‘no touch’, driving 600 miles every day in a Kenworth tractor is still pretty hard on your vertebrae. But sometimes you have to do what you have to do to survive and to keep your eye on your finish line. My heart goes out to full time drivers, that job is no walk in the park.
- And what about love? My preference was to be in a relationship, but not any relationship. I wanted a good partner, I wanted to be a good partner as well. What qualities would I look for in a new partner? Independent, established, confident, and nice. Was I asking too much?
Making it All Work Finally, preparation collided with opportunity. In other words, I got lucky. Remember when I told you I didn’t picture myself as ever being a bean-counter? Two established financial services guys set me up with free office space and began funneling tax prep clients to me. What began with me preparing taxes for about three dozen of my union brothers, instantly turned into over 100 clients. There I was, a bean counter of sorts. I kept that truck driving job for several more years. And remember that duplex I bought after the rent spiked at my apartment? Well, there was this girl living next door. Enter Chrissy. We became best friends. She is no longer my neighbor. She is now my spouse. Of course, at the time we met, aside from being a nice guy, I wasn’t much of a catch. Man, she took a chance on me. As my client count went up, my days driving the big-rig went down. When the client count got to about 400, I retired forever from driving. No more trips to Chicago, Des Moines, Snow Shoe PA, or Jersey City. Chrissy and I began pounding 40% of our gross pay into savings. It would take until I was 70, but working together, we got to a place each of us only dreamed we would be. By living within our means, and keeping lifestyle creep to a minimum, we surpassed our goals. Chris retired at 64 and helped me during my final three years as a tax preparer. Lucky for me, Federal Wage and Hour never found out that I violated the minimum wage laws by never paying her in the first place. I sold the practice at age 70. I prepared 650 tax returns in my final year. It’s important to note that during our journey, we did not starve ourselves of food nor fun. We counted 27 trips during our first ten years together. Chris was great at finding great deals to various destinations in the Caribbean, and we turned several of her business trips into mini vacations as well. It’s important to prepare for the future, but have some fun along the way as well. I hope this piece inspires someone who is still on the road, dealing with similar obstacles, and wondering if there was a way around them.Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners
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