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Celebrating the Win

"I think any young person with good financial habits will soon get "hooked", once they see their assets start to grow over time. Then they will no longer require incentives or nudging from their parents. She sounds like a smart daughter with very wise parents."
- Jack Hannam
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"I suspect IRMAA has a cliff because that is what generated the targeted income. No cliff and the cost sharing goes up."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"Bruce, I've never quite felt the pull of commodities as an investment class — and I've never been able to put my finger on why. As an index investor, I figure if horse and buggy manufacturers ever stage a comeback, I'll already have a slice of that pie waiting for me. And as of Friday, apparently, I'm now the proud part-owner of a spaceship company. The index giveth in mysterious ways."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you William for your thoughts. For me, it often comes back to one word as well: family. I was glad Jonathan placed it first on the stone. Family has a way of giving meaning to everything else: love, experiences, accomplishments, and even the memories we carry with us. In many ways, it is the foundation upon which the rest of life is built."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Defining Enough

"Thanks Mark, another great article. Enough said, the key word."
- William Dorner
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"We're 70% Equities split 62/38 US v International (VTSAX and VTIAX), 20% in VG Intermediate Treasury Fund, and 10% Cash (mostly TSP G Fund). 60% is tax deferred, 36% is Roth, 4% is taxable. Roths are 100% equities. Bonds, Cash and remaining Equities in tax deferred and taxable. Still doing Roth conversions in next few years, the extent of which is still being contemplated. Debating between nibbling around top of tax bracket vs "go big or go home"."
- Mark Ukleja
Read more »

Quiet Failure: Time for Me to Say What I Think

"Thanks for your article and thoughts Javier. My only comment is make sure you have a workable savings plan, because Retirement is not cheap, you have to work and save for it."
- William Dorner
Read more »

The Quiet Failure of Good Advice

"Just seeing this now, after reading you’re third article about this today. I’d like to share my brief thoughts on the second question you posed here, “why aren’t financial planners reaching those who need it most?” To me it’s pretty simple: lack of financial literacy among their clients; and incentives for planners are mis-aligned with the desired outcomes of their clients. This is particularly acute for retirees who are in the decumulation stage. AUM planners make their money by keeping asset levels high (and growing). This works great during the accumulation stage, as working people are focused on their jobs, careers and families. They don’t have the time or inclination to learn about personal financial management, so here a planner can help them at least put in place a plan that will lead to the right balance of saving while allowing enough spending to enjoy the journey. Retirees, though, pose a much more challenging problem. They’re faced with 30 years or more of decumulating their portfolios and navigating around the myriad pitfalls that could derail them along the way. As near as I can tell, planners as a group and planning as a profession are doing a lousy job of offering real help here. Of course there are exceptions, but in my opinion their profession is not set up to address this extraordinarily difficult challenge."
- tman9999
Read more »

Reflections on a Quiet Failure

"Hello Javier - just found your followup post to this one, wherein you succinctly summarize the key insight: financial planning, when done well, fades into the background right along with thoughts about spending money, with the focus shifting to living the life one has chosen. I love this. And I’d love to hear more about the tool you’re building. I went full DIY a couple years ago, using the Income Laboratory platform to do my own decumulation planning. It gives me 90+% of what I need to spend confidently and not worry about under- or over-spending during our anticipated 35-40-year retirement plan. Let me know if you’d like to connect - would love to learn more about what you’re working on - and possibly collaborate with you on it."
- tman9999
Read more »

Celebrating the Win

"I think any young person with good financial habits will soon get "hooked", once they see their assets start to grow over time. Then they will no longer require incentives or nudging from their parents. She sounds like a smart daughter with very wise parents."
- Jack Hannam
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"I suspect IRMAA has a cliff because that is what generated the targeted income. No cliff and the cost sharing goes up."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"Bruce, I've never quite felt the pull of commodities as an investment class — and I've never been able to put my finger on why. As an index investor, I figure if horse and buggy manufacturers ever stage a comeback, I'll already have a slice of that pie waiting for me. And as of Friday, apparently, I'm now the proud part-owner of a spaceship company. The index giveth in mysterious ways."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you William for your thoughts. For me, it often comes back to one word as well: family. I was glad Jonathan placed it first on the stone. Family has a way of giving meaning to everything else: love, experiences, accomplishments, and even the memories we carry with us. In many ways, it is the foundation upon which the rest of life is built."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Defining Enough

"Thanks Mark, another great article. Enough said, the key word."
- William Dorner
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"We're 70% Equities split 62/38 US v International (VTSAX and VTIAX), 20% in VG Intermediate Treasury Fund, and 10% Cash (mostly TSP G Fund). 60% is tax deferred, 36% is Roth, 4% is taxable. Roths are 100% equities. Bonds, Cash and remaining Equities in tax deferred and taxable. Still doing Roth conversions in next few years, the extent of which is still being contemplated. Debating between nibbling around top of tax bracket vs "go big or go home"."
- Mark Ukleja
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 78: OUR THREE most precious resources are health, wealth and time. Handle all three with the care they deserve, and we’ll greatly improve the odds of a rich and meaningful life.

humans

NO. 4: A GRADUAL rise in our living standard brings great pleasure, while a reversal pains us deeply. The implication: We should manage our finances so our lifestyle improves over time. Suppose we save money by staying in motels today. If that means we can afford ritzier hotels down the road, today’s sacrifice could boost our long-term happiness.

act

ESTIMATE YOUR retirement income needs. Take your annual salary. Subtract how much you save each year and pay in Social Security payroll taxes. Also subtract your annual debt payments, including your mortgage—assuming these debts will be paid off by retirement. Result: You’ll know roughly how much you will need each year for a comfortable retirement.

Truths

NO. 84: IF YOUR portfolio earns 6% annually and you spend the entire 6% every year, you’ll face a financial reckoning. The spending power of the 6% will shrink with inflation, forcing you to either cut your standard of living or dip into principal to maintain it. The latter is dangerous, especially early in retirement, because you can quickly eviscerate your nest egg.

Safety net

Manifesto

NO. 78: OUR THREE most precious resources are health, wealth and time. Handle all three with the care they deserve, and we’ll greatly improve the odds of a rich and meaningful life.

Spotlight: Spending

Where Next? What Next?

Suppose money were no object. If you could go anywhere in the world on your next trip, where would it be? If you could savor any experience, what would it be?

Read more »

Take a Seat

MILESTONES MARK the growth of a child as she moves from infancy through school age. In similar fashion, we adults tend to measure our life’s progress with “firsts” or other significant events. Perhaps we remember the feeling of maturity that came with our first kiss or our first job. Milestones help us attach meaning to the course of a life that sometimes seems beyond our control.
Financial milestones often command special significance, like my first “real” job at age 15.

Read more »

Reacting to the Tariffs

A NEW TARIFF REGIME takes effect today. If the costs are passed along to buyers, the price of cars, orange juice, clothing and Swiss chocolates could increase, possibly dramatically.
I dealt with price shocks earlier this year. It gives me some insight into how we might behave if prices rise suddenly. Although I could have afforded the higher prices, the strong emotional impact made me highly adaptive. The price shock mobilized me to take action, even though it was only over a dollar or two.

Read more »

The Opposite of HumbleDollar

If there is an antonym to HumbleDollar it surely must be in the form of a gift my wife just received from her niece. The gift is a bag. It’s a designer thing. From Paris. I googled the bag, and if you are interested you can buy one of your very own for about $4000.
My wife’s bag is actually a knock off, a counterfeit. The niece only paid 50 bucks. I couldn’t figure out how to post a picture,

Read more »

A Grievance Most Fowl: When Golf Ate My Lunch.

I have a grievance this morning. Strange as it may seem this involves a chicken and bacon burger, one of my favourite restaurants, the global market economy and golf. At first glance they seem odd bedfellows don’t you think?
Yesterday afternoon I was feeling peckish and decided to indulge myself with a chicken burger. Whilst about to order the offending item I was alarmed to discover the price had increased by 125% in a matter of a week.

Read more »

When to spend money

One of the biggest financial questions I wrestle with is when to spend. Saving has never been an issue for me—my thrifty habits make that easy. What I struggle with is knowing when (if ever) to splurge.
For example, I love rock climbing with my kids. It’s a weekly ritual, and I have no hesitation spending money on those experiences because I know I’m investing in memories before they grow up and move on.

Read more »

Spotlight: Grossman

Keeping It

WALL STREET JOURNAL personal finance columnist Jason Zweig recently made this observation: Getting rich isn’t the hard part, he said. “Staying rich is the hard part.” On the surface, staying rich might seem easy. After all, you simply need to build a balanced portfolio and then withdraw from it at a reasonable rate. Sure, there are stories about lottery winners and professional athletes going broke. But you might assume that phenomenon—having a hard time staying rich—is limited to such extreme cases. In my experience, however, it’s a challenge for everyone. That, I think, is because the skills and strategies required to retain wealth are different from those required to build it. What to do? Here are some of the approaches that I’ve seen work well. Portfolio (Part I). When it comes to building a portfolio, most people think first about risk. That makes sense. But it’s important to recognize that there’s such a thing as being too conservative. You might, for example, feel that the ultimate “safe” portfolio would be one invested entirely in U.S. Treasury bonds. While that would certainly offer safety in one respect, it would also be enormously risky—because of the exposure to inflation. Consider that, in just the past 20 years, the dollar has lost about a third of its purchasing power—even though inflation has been historically low. Counterintuitive as it may seem, a key ingredient in maintaining wealth is taking sufficient risk. Portfolio (Part II). Back in the fall of 2008, when the financial crisis hit, Harvard University found itself in a difficult position. With a large part of its endowment tied up in hedge funds and illiquid private equity investments, the university faced a cash crunch. It had to lay off hundreds of employees. To raise cash in a hurry, the school began selling investments at fire-sale prices. It was a disaster. None of us…
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Save and Give First

I’VE DISCUSSED THE election in my recent articles and cautioned against timing the market. But if market timing isn't recommended, what can you do to keep your finances on track through this potentially turbulent period? Last week, I suggested reviewing your finances through the lenses of leverage, liquidity and cash flow. This week, I’d like to share another framework—and this is one you could employ at any time and not just in times of worry. Financial educator Brian Portnoy (not to be confused with day trader David Portnoy) offers this perspective: In the world of finance, he says, most of the discussion focuses on investments. While investing is important, it’s just one of seven dimensions of money that he sees as equally important. The other six are: Earning Giving Saving Spending Borrowing Protecting I like this approach, but it isn’t necessarily easy. It requires each family or individual to find a balance among the seven dimensions. But how? I would start with the three areas that involve outflows—spending, saving and giving—since there’s a tradeoff among them. The other areas are also important, but they’re topics for another day. 1. Saving. In many—if not most—households, money is saved only after taxes are subtracted and the bills are paid. Ideally, however, you should budget for savings upfront. If you have a 401(k) or a similar employer-sponsored retirement plan, this is relatively easy because these plans make saving automatic. But if your employer doesn’t offer a retirement plan or you want to save more than your plan allows, how much should you earmark for savings? I would ask three questions: How much do I need to save? How much can I save? How much do I want to save? The answer to the first question is largely mathematical. If you can quantify the cost of your future goals, you can estimate how much…
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Why Rates Matter

A FRUSTRATING reality: Uncertainty is always a factor in personal finance. Still, some aspects are somewhat predictable. Among them is the connection between interest rates and other parts of the economy. Consider four key relationships: 1. Interest rates and inflation. Inflation has been the financial topic of the year. The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates twice so far in 2022, including a larger-than-average increase last week, as it tries to rein in rising prices. It’s also communicated plans for further increases. What's the Fed trying to accomplish? An easy way to think about interest rates is that they’re the price of money. Suppose you want to buy a home. To be sure, there are always some people who can pay cash and don’t need a mortgage. But most do. For those folks, the interest rate is a key factor. Consider a $500,000 mortgage. At a rate of 2.75%, which was attainable last year, the monthly payment on a standard 30-year mortgage would have been $2,041. But today, with rates closer to 5.25%, the same mortgage would cost $2,761 per month. The impact, as you might guess, is that many homebuyers will reduce the amount they’re willing to spend so they stay within their monthly budget. In fact, to get to that same $2,041 monthly payment with a 5.25% rate, the purchase price would have to drop about 25%. Result? Over time, people will bid less for homes—and prices, on average, should increase less rapidly and perhaps even fall. This same dynamic applies to other items that need to be financed. For consumers, this includes cars. For businesses, it includes equipment purchases. Anyone looking to buy anything on credit will either want to pay less or may forgo the purchase altogether. That, in turn, will cause sellers to be more accommodating,…
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Never Mind

WHEN IT COMES to your financial life, should you care what other people think? I’ve always found this a tricky question. On the one hand, it’s easy to fall into the trap of keeping up with the Joneses. If you care too much about what other people think, life can become very expensive—and that can be detrimental to your financial health. On the other hand, it’s also natural to want to be accepted by one’s peers. No one wants to operate too far outside societal norms. Yes, you can march to the beat of your own drum, but if you’re too far out of step with your peers, that can make life hard in other ways. In short, you don’t want to care too much about others’ opinions, but you also don’t want to care too little. This can be a difficult balance to strike.  In their book The Millionaire Next Door, authors Thomas Stanley and William Danko offered one solution: Simply choose a different peer group. To avoid judgment from wealthy neighbors, they argued, move to another neighborhood. While I suppose that might work, this always struck me as impractical. If my neighbor drives a Mercedes, do I have to pull my children out of school and leave town just to avoid the temptation to buy—or lease—one myself? That, I think, rings hollow as a solution. But there’s another way to strike a healthy balance—which is to associate with the Joneses, without feeling like you need to keep up with them financially. About two decades ago, psychologist Thomas Gilovich and colleagues discovered something they dubbed the “spotlight effect.” What they found is that the rest of the world is paying much less attention to you than you think they are. How did they prove this? In a series of experiments, the researchers outfitted…
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For Their Sake

A FEW YEARS BACK, I found myself in the emergency room, thinking I had a serious condition. As I sat there, I worried about my family, including my wife and young children. If I didn’t come home, would my wife have a clear picture of our finances? Fortunately, the health scare turned out to be a false alarm, but it was a wakeup call. Sure, I had an estate plan, but I realized that a binder full of legalese wasn’t enough. There's a lot more we can do to organize our financial life so it’s easier on our heirs. Below are the organizational principles I recommend: Financial map. If you’ve prepared an estate plan, that’s great. But don’t stop there. Put yourself in your family’s shoes. Would they know where to find the original, signed documents? Would they know how to contact your attorney and what steps to take first? I recommend drawing up a simple, one-page summary—what I call a financial map—that will tell your heirs where to find important documents, vendors and the other information that I describe below. You could distribute the map on paper or share it with a tool like Google Docs. Contact list. These days, most people’s contacts are stored on their phones. But even if you could get into someone’s phone, it might not be much help. Instead, when someone dies, the most useful thing is a short list of key contacts. This should include your attorney, accountant, financial advisor and insurance agent. Immediately after someone has died, these are the most critical contacts. While less urgent, I would include other vendors, such as your cable TV provider, cellphone carrier and landlord or condo association. Here’s how to think about it: Suppose someone had to pay the most basic bills to keep your home running.…
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Not My Thing

NOT LONG AGO, I RAN into my friend Martin, who works as a cardiologist at a local hospital. In the course of our conversation, I commented on the construction equipment outside his facility and asked what they were building. His answer: “Building? No, they're actually un-building.” He explained that recently his hospital had been sold and the new owner was a for-profit company. As part of the transition, the new owner had evaluated the hospital's facilities and discovered that a group of older buildings was largely unused. Unlike the prior owner, which was a nonprofit, the new owner was subject to real estate taxes, saw no sense in paying taxes on empty buildings—and determined that it would be worth the expense to take them down. This got me thinking about how tricky it can be to make financial decisions. In this case, two different owners of exactly the same buildings came to opposite conclusions simply because of a difference in their tax status. Moreover, in addition to tax considerations, there are a thousand other ways in which each of us is unique: our age, health, children, lifestyle and much more. Each of these factors must be considered when making financial decisions. On top of this, with so much information coming at us—from radio, TV, podcasts, blogs and more—it can feel more difficult than ever to make sense of it all. As the hospital example illustrates, what works for one person may not work for the next. How do you figure out what financial advice will work for you? Whenever you come across financial information and are wondering what to make of it, try asking yourself these three questions: 1. Does this information actually matter? On my shelf, I have a book titled Guide to the 50 Economic Indicators That Really Matter. This book…
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