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More Than Money: Our Holiday Home

"Congratulations Mark...the rest of the still working beings will live vicariously through your vivid posts. I can just about taste the Guinness and smell the ocean waves."
- Mike Xavier
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Have you met Optimistic Callie?

"Very interesting article. I’m not familiar with Callie, but I will sign up for future posts. This “quantifies” or gives support for my views of staying invested in the broad markets for the long term. Avoiding knee jerk reactions to market swings is a key to long term success. Didn’t we just go thru a similar period during the past 4 months with the S&P dropping due to tariff fears and then on Friday it hit an all-time high? thanks for the link to this article!"
- luvtoride44afe9eb1e
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Ninety Nine, I mean Eight Retirement Tips

"Maybe a fourth reason. I wrote previously about pros and cons of my 401k, but it was a post not an article, so doesn’t come up when I search for my previous writings. Sorry I can’t link to it. Anyway, in addition to those, we’ve learned recently that inheriting it is a major pain. I think that’s more specific to the custodian and plan rules than to a 401k in general. In any case, it’s pushing me closer to the edge.  I’m waiting to see what happens to tax rules this year before acting. I expect there to be no impact on the decision, but no harm in waiting a few months. "
- Michael1
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Dividend Days

"I don’t pay much attention to dividends, the vast majority of which are in my traditional IRA. My brokerage account is all in short term bonds, which is money most likely to be tapped for home improvements in three years. The dividends in that account are tax free as I limit my taxable income below 96K filing jointly. Overall I am a total returns investor. If I need to generate cash I sell appreciated assets, such as I did last week. With the market rebounding I was four percent over my target for domestic stocks, but I usually wait until I’m at least 5% over. In this case I decided to strike when the iron was hot due to the erratic policies of the current administration and their effects on the markets."
- David Lancaster
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Beyond the Balance Sheet: Investing in Yourself

"It's wonderful that our era tolerates diversities of views and life choices. It's even better that we celebrate the choice of regimens advocated by many gurus in addition to Howard Luks' A few examples below (not recommendations) Linus Pauling, the 2-time Nobel laureate, with his megadose vitamin C and nutritional biochemistry regime. Peter Attia: exercise, lots of medical tests, insulin sensitivity monitoring, medically tailored metabolic goals. David Sinclair: caloric restriction, plant-based low protein diet, cold exposure exercises, oral health. The usual disclaimer applies: "past performance [or non performance] is not indicative of future results.""
- quan nguyen
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A theoretical, simplified road to retirement income without a pension. I’ve learned it doesn’t exist. 

"It sounds like you have a sizable amount of company stock that provides key dividends to your income. Are you concerned about the risk that the company could experience adverse events that lower or eliminate their dividend or, worse, the stock has a sharp downturn?"
- Kurt Yokum
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Saving and Giving

"" ...serving the country for 10 years as a rocket scientist, and 20 more years as a community primary care physician...my work touched via the GPS satellites I helped sending to orbit, changes I made in the lives of my patients and their families or influences I had in the careers of my medical students and residents...." Obviously, Mr. Quan, you can thank your lucky stars that you came from good stock and were given the opportunities and means including abilities to do what you did, not to mention that you got paid well enough to be able to invest and to retire early and very comfortably. All is luck, no more, no less. The believers, including Christians, will say you are very blessed meaning you are special. Back to Mr. Eric's question of saving and giving. 1. Do know harm, and one will know when saving/giving is helpful or harmful. 2.The goal of giving and saving is to alleviate and reduce suffering for oneself and/or others while alive and upon one's exit. 3. Charity begins at home. Giving to make a difference (preferably immediately) and to reduce the suffering of others while being mindful of #1. 4. life insurance policies - easiest and surest way to save and give to others provided one is qualified to purchase these polices. Partial disclosure. Helping (financially) relatives still left behind when I left Viet-Nam 50 years ago (at 13 on a damaged boat with a family of 11 plus an uncle and 2 cousins), and the last 10 years by paying for a first cousin's daughter's education and living expenses (in VN) who will be the first in her family to get a college degree (actually 2 degrees - at 35: BS - Physical Therapy and BA - English) this summer after 7 years of working and studying and continue on to get her Master and eventual Doctorate of Physical Therapy (with our continual financial support) as well as helping her nieces and nephews' tuition expenses. Last year's financial giving to VN alone amounted to 35% of our gross income without the benefits of tax deduction. On the other hand, we were lucky to be given the knowledge and ability to not reproduce and to live frugally in order to help others. In the end, we are all custodians of what we have been entrusted only to be distributed accordingly. To whom much is given, much is expected. Grateful to be given much. Thank you, HD."
- deusexmachina21
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The Jevons Paradox

IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, a leader in artificial intelligence, grabbed headlines. Amodei argued that the next generation of AI systems could replace half of entry-level jobs and drive up the unemployment rate to 20%. All of this could occur in the next five years, he said. Recent data seem to support these glum predictions. Mark Zuckerberg said AI will be as capable as a mid-level programmer by the end of this year. Microsoft announced thousands of job cuts this spring, with programmers disproportionately affected. In an announcement last week, Amazon’s CEO wrote, “It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect artificial intelligence to reduce our total corporate workforce....” If these data points are a sign of things to come, it would certainly be concerning. This outcome isn’t guaranteed, though. To illustrate why I see things differently, let me share a recollection from some years ago. My father was a lawyer, and I remember visiting his office when I was a child. In hindsight, what was notable was there was no computer on his desk. There were no computers anywhere. To send correspondence, attorneys spoke into dictation machines. They then handed the machines’ miniature tapes to secretaries, who literally typed up a first draft on typewriters, using Wite Out to fix errors and carbon paper to make copies. The draft was then marked up in pen, a final copy retyped, placed in a stamped envelope, and mailed. Because of the amount of work involved, each attorney had a dedicated secretary who spent his or her days typing and retyping documents in the manner described above. Today, everyone seems to do their own correspondence and, as a result, there are far fewer secretarial jobs. But if we look back at historical data, we see that the invention of both the word processor and email didn’t cause any noticeable increase in unemployment. Why not? For starters, transitions like this occur slowly. Also, new technologies are rarely a net negative. Instead, they tend to create new jobs. Take a look at today’s law firm. It has far fewer traditional secretaries but significant numbers of IT people. (IT was nonexistent in the days of typewriters and dictaphones.) The transition in office work is the most recent change, but it’s by no means unique. Years ago, many people were employed as Morse code operators. Sam Altman, founder of OpenAI, commented that in the past there were also large numbers of people employed as lamplighters who traveled the city streets each night lighting gas lamps. More significantly, farming used to be a major sector of the workforce. In 1900, 40% of Americans worked on farms. Today, it’s less than 2%. These transitions were all significant, but none caused the sort of mass unemployment Dario Amodei forecasted. In fact, Amazon said it doesn’t expect AI to result in significant layoffs. Instead, the bulk of the headcount reduction is expected to occur through attrition—the normal course of employees changing jobs or retiring. Amazon provides another useful data point on this topic: The company now uses 750,000 robots in its warehouses. In theory, those robots would have taken more than 750,000 jobs, but that’s not what the overall employment data show. Unemployment today is near the low end of where it’s been over the past 75 years. How is it possible that technology has displaced jobs, and yet unemployment remains low? An economic principle known as the Jevons paradox can help us understand this. In the 1860s, William Jevons, a British economist, observed that manufacturing plants had become more efficient in their use of coal and yet, counterintuitively, the demand for coal was increasing. The explanation: As manufacturers realized they needed less coal to produce the same amount of output, they chose to expand their businesses into new areas, resulting in the use of more coal.  Over time, a second order effect kicked in. These gains in output led to wage increases and faster economic growth. That, in turn, further increased demand for coal. The adoption of artificial intelligence might deliver the same positive effects, with greater productivity leading to higher wages and faster economic growth without any loss in employment. Recent comments by the CEO of software vendor Box illustrate how the Jevons paradox might apply to AI. “AI is not replacing existing work that's being done,” he wrote, “but adding new capabilities to the organization.” Box, in other words, won’t use AI to cut costs; it will use the technology to do more.  He adds: “This means that companies can simply now attack the kinds of problems that just never were economically feasible to solve before…. Yes, there's certainly opportunity to automate some of the work that we currently do to drive efficiency, but the vast majority of work that we will bring automation to is the work that we just never got around to in the first place.” Interestingly, despite his concerns about employment, Amodei sees some of these same benefits. In the same interview in which he made his comments about unemployment, he also described some of the potential positive effects that AI might deliver: “Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced....” The reality is that this is all an open question. In a May interview, economist Daron Acemoglu, who recently won the Nobel Prize for his work on economic development, argues that AI will be able to replace only a fraction of jobs. But he adds, “It’s hugely uncertain, and it’s very difficult to know because it’s a very rapidly changing technology.” And that just may be the best way to think about AI. It’s all very new and still uncertain. While Amodei worries about a potentially negative impact, that’s just a guess. Economic history suggests it may very well go the other way. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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The Illusion of Wealth

"Spending is usually visible, and wealth hidden. In Psychology of Money Housel shares a story about his college job as a car valet. He realized people drooling over those expensive cars he parked are picturing themselves in it, not admiring the owner/driver. His point: if you want respect and admiration, there are far more effective ways to achieve it than blowing precious cash on fancy things, ways which allow you to compound wealth over time through savings you keep from the gap between your income and your ego."
- David Powell
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The Fear of Letting Go

"KT: I am 10 years into retirement, but remember clearly having the same financial concerns as I approached retirement. How to keep the money we had safe? Would we run out of money? Would we have enough to spend to enjoy our retirement? What about assisted care when we needed it? I suspect most people have similar concerns, but unlike easing your way into a swimming pool, one day you are at work and the next you are not. 10 years on, however, I offer that my experience has been just fine. We've seen our investments grow, but have not significantly changed our spending. The Pandemic certainly curtailed our travel plans, but it also allowed us to finally pay off our mortgage and do a few home improvements. Having enough money in retirement is important, but as you anticipate that your cash flow will be roughly equivalent to your work income, you should be fine. The more important issue may be: what to do with your time? Going places and spending time with friends and family becomes important. Taking care of yourself - being physically fit and practicing good health habits is even more important as you could easily have 20+ years of active retirement. Take a deep breath and make the leap into retirement. I think you'll be fine."
- UofODuck
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Let’s Get Happy

AMERICA’S HAPPINESS plunged during the pandemic. I’d assumed that survey result was an aberration, and perhaps that’ll still prove to be the case. But recovery sure hasn’t come quickly. There was no General Social Survey in 2020, when COVID-19 struck. But the following year’s survey found that just 19% of Americans described themselves as very happy—the lowest reading since the survey was first conducted in 1972. The “very happy” group rose to 25% in 2022, only to fall back to 23% in 2024, according to just-released results. These were the three lowest readings in the survey’s 52-year history. Indeed, over the past half-century, typically between 30% and 35% of Americans have described themselves as very happy. Why hasn’t America’s happiness bounced back? The 2024 survey also found that many respondents were dissatisfied with their financial situation and pessimistic that their income would improve. In addition, I’d imagine today’s sharp political divisions are influencing the results. Want to make sure you’re among the “very happy” group? There is, alas, no way to guarantee that. Still, the happiness research conducted by economists and psychologists can help us better understand why we’re happy or unhappy—and it offers some insights into how we might improve our outlook. We all have a happiness set point. The bad news: It seems we’re genetically predisposed to be more or less happy—and this innate trait is easily the biggest determinant of our happiness level. Some folks will always be happier than others, no matter what life throws at them. Heard about the big five personality traits? These innate traits—which are hard to change—are correlated with our life satisfaction. Folks score high for happiness if they also score high for emotional stability, extraversion and conscientiousness. Midlife misery is common. Happiness through life is U-shaped. When do we hit rock-bottom? Economist David Blanchflower analyzed data from across the developed world and concluded the depth of midlife misery arrives at age 47.2. That sounds right to me. I was in my mid-40s when my Wall Street Journal column began to feel like a chore, and I started casting around for what I wanted to do next. Our relative standing matters. Richard Easterlin is arguably the father of happiness research. He identified a fascinating paradox: Those with more money say they’re happier, and yet a society doesn’t become happier as it grows wealthier. Why not? We care less about our absolute standard of living and more about our standing relative to others. What matters is what we focus on. One strategy for boosting happiness: Ponder the good things in our life. This is a key reason that those with higher incomes tend to say they’re happier. When surveyed, those further up the income scale think about their good fortune, and that prompts them to say they’re happy. Happiness comes in two flavors. Eudaimonic happiness is walking out of the office on Friday evening knowing we got a lot accomplished over the past week. Hedonic happiness is seeing friends right afterwards for a couple of beers and a burger. Hedonic happiness tends to be fleeting, while the glow of eudaimonic happiness has the potential to last longer. It’s tough to permanently boost happiness. But there are ways to raise our life satisfaction: Keep our commute short. Spend time with friends and family. Volunteer. Give to charity and family. Work on our health. Regularly count our blessings. Favor experiences over possessions. Devote time to activities we’re passionate about. All this might seem obvious. But it’s easy to lose sight of such things, and instead find ourselves, say, spending money without much thought and not making an effort to see friends. Money can ward off unhappiness. Yes, our dollars purchase limited happiness. But at the same time, the absence of money can cause great unhappiness. What’s the best way to buy happiness? My advice: Amass a healthy sum in your financial accounts, and quietly enjoy the peace of mind it offers. Not having to worry about money is, I believe, a great privilege. Jonathan Clements is the founder and editor of HumbleDollar. Follow him on X @ClementsMoney and on Facebook, and check out his earlier posts. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Eyes Forward

AT THE 2016 SUMMER Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, South Africa’s Chad Le Clos challenged Michael Phelps for the gold medal in the 200-meter butterfly. A famous image emerged from that event: Throughout the semifinal, Le Clos repeatedly looked over at Phelps as he struggled to keep up. Meanwhile, Phelps just kept looking forward. The result: Phelps ultimately won the gold, while Le Clos trailed in fourth place. I believe there’s a parallel between what we saw in that race and what we see in the investment world. Why do people pile into speculative investments like meme stocks, dogecoin, SPACs or NFTs? One explanation is so-called FOMO—the fear of missing out. When we see friends and neighbors making gains—like Le Clos seeing Phelps take home yet another gold medal—it can be hard to ignore. FOMO is a real phenomenon. But there may be another reason investors are drawn to popular investments. In an excerpt from their new book, Like, authors Martin Reeves and Bob Goodson explain why “like” buttons on social media are so powerful. Human beings, they write, are observant, and we try to learn from one another’s experiences. This is especially true when we encounter people who seem to be traveling the same path. “When we observe others who are similar to us, we have higher confidence that their experiences are relevant to our own journey through life.” This makes sense. If a friend or coworker figured something out, why reinvent the wheel when we could piggyback on what they’ve learned? Through this lens, some of the seemingly irrational behavior we see in investment markets may begin to make more sense. Those who appear to be mindlessly jumping on the bandwagon of a popular investment just might be making an intelligent move if they assume others have done the research on this investment. Unfortunately, there’s a fly in the ointment. Wall Street is a step ahead of us. Marketers know how we think. They know people are susceptible to FOMO and will mimic their peers, so they use these powerful effects to sell us the investments that seem to be the most popular. If your inbox looks anything like mine, you know what I mean. This year, with gold having gained 30%, sales pitches for precious metals have piled up. The investment industry is very good at selling the flavor of the month. How can you turn down the volume on these sorts of things? Here are some suggestions. For starters, it helps to recognize that when it comes to investing, there’s always more than one road to success. Just because someone else is making money with a particular strategy doesn’t mean we need to do the same thing. In other words, try hard to be like Michael Phelps, always looking forward. Don’t worry about what’s happening in the next lane, or anywhere else. More to the point, if your strategy fits your goals, there’s no need to do anything else. Author Mike Piper illustrates this idea in a recent article. Imagine, Piper says, that you’re on a vacation somewhere and enjoying yourself. That would be terrific—except that it’s probably also true that there might be another vacation you could have taken that you would’ve enjoyed more. Many others, in fact. That’s always going to be the reality, Piper says. In building a portfolio, “no matter what you pick, there’s going to be countless other options that would have been better.” But, Piper continues, “as long as your original decision was reasonably well informed, it’s not helpful to spend a bunch of time looking at other allocations, other mutual funds, or other individual stocks that you could have selected instead.” Not only could that lead to regret, Piper says, but also it could lead to performance chasing. That brings us to another key point. Because Wall Street marketers like to talk about what’s popular, there’s the danger that the investments they’re promoting may be the ones that are near peak valuations. So, almost by definition, if Wall Street is trying to sell you a fund, that may be one to avoid, or avoid at least at this time. This risk isn’t just theoretical; Jeffrey Ptak, an analyst at Morningstar, has quantified it. Earlier this year, he looked at investors’ results in thematic funds—so called “because they tend to tap into a trend that’s captured the imagination or entered the discourse somehow.” The results were clear. Over a recent three-year period, “the average dollar invested in thematic funds lost around 7% per year.” Over that same period, the S&P 500 gained 11% a year. Ptak’s conclusion: “By the time a thematic fund reaches investors’ attention, it might already have been picked over by other investors who had already tapped into the theme. That can leave thematic fund investors holding the bag―that is, an overvalued basket of stocks that courts hefty price risk.” To be sure, this doesn’t mean you should reflexively avoid everything Wall Street promotes. But caution might be warranted. In investing, it’s also important to keep in mind both sides of the risk-return equation. In general, risk and return go together, but marketers don’t always go out of their way to point this out. That’s another reason to follow the Michael Phelps model. There might be other strategies that’ll deliver higher returns, but that doesn’t mean those strategies are right for you. Consider Bill Gates. If you didn’t know who he was, he might look like any other 69-year-old. But, of course, his investment strategy shouldn’t look like anyone else’s. The idea is: Even when you think what someone else is doing might be relevant, the reality is we often know little about another person’s circumstances. A recent analysis in The Wall Street Journal can also help us turn down the volume on Wall Street marketing. The article described the talent war among hedge funds for top-tier stock pickers. In some cases, funds are offering pay packages north of $100 million to lure top talent away from competitors. What this tells us is that the number of investors capable of beating the market in any meaningful way is very small. Yes, they do exist, and they may be worth paying for, but they aren’t easy to find. And even when they do exist, their funds typically aren’t open to individual investors. So, when we hear about outsized success stories, we should recognize them as the outliers that they are.  For most investors most of the time, the data tell us that simplicity and low cost are the way to go. Keeping that in mind may be the best way to tune out whatever might be happening in the next lane. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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More Than Money: Our Holiday Home

"Congratulations Mark...the rest of the still working beings will live vicariously through your vivid posts. I can just about taste the Guinness and smell the ocean waves."
- Mike Xavier
Read more »

Have you met Optimistic Callie?

"Very interesting article. I’m not familiar with Callie, but I will sign up for future posts. This “quantifies” or gives support for my views of staying invested in the broad markets for the long term. Avoiding knee jerk reactions to market swings is a key to long term success. Didn’t we just go thru a similar period during the past 4 months with the S&P dropping due to tariff fears and then on Friday it hit an all-time high? thanks for the link to this article!"
- luvtoride44afe9eb1e
Read more »

Ninety Nine, I mean Eight Retirement Tips

"Maybe a fourth reason. I wrote previously about pros and cons of my 401k, but it was a post not an article, so doesn’t come up when I search for my previous writings. Sorry I can’t link to it. Anyway, in addition to those, we’ve learned recently that inheriting it is a major pain. I think that’s more specific to the custodian and plan rules than to a 401k in general. In any case, it’s pushing me closer to the edge.  I’m waiting to see what happens to tax rules this year before acting. I expect there to be no impact on the decision, but no harm in waiting a few months. "
- Michael1
Read more »

Dividend Days

"I don’t pay much attention to dividends, the vast majority of which are in my traditional IRA. My brokerage account is all in short term bonds, which is money most likely to be tapped for home improvements in three years. The dividends in that account are tax free as I limit my taxable income below 96K filing jointly. Overall I am a total returns investor. If I need to generate cash I sell appreciated assets, such as I did last week. With the market rebounding I was four percent over my target for domestic stocks, but I usually wait until I’m at least 5% over. In this case I decided to strike when the iron was hot due to the erratic policies of the current administration and their effects on the markets."
- David Lancaster
Read more »

Beyond the Balance Sheet: Investing in Yourself

"It's wonderful that our era tolerates diversities of views and life choices. It's even better that we celebrate the choice of regimens advocated by many gurus in addition to Howard Luks' A few examples below (not recommendations) Linus Pauling, the 2-time Nobel laureate, with his megadose vitamin C and nutritional biochemistry regime. Peter Attia: exercise, lots of medical tests, insulin sensitivity monitoring, medically tailored metabolic goals. David Sinclair: caloric restriction, plant-based low protein diet, cold exposure exercises, oral health. The usual disclaimer applies: "past performance [or non performance] is not indicative of future results.""
- quan nguyen
Read more »

A theoretical, simplified road to retirement income without a pension. I’ve learned it doesn’t exist. 

"It sounds like you have a sizable amount of company stock that provides key dividends to your income. Are you concerned about the risk that the company could experience adverse events that lower or eliminate their dividend or, worse, the stock has a sharp downturn?"
- Kurt Yokum
Read more »

Saving and Giving

"" ...serving the country for 10 years as a rocket scientist, and 20 more years as a community primary care physician...my work touched via the GPS satellites I helped sending to orbit, changes I made in the lives of my patients and their families or influences I had in the careers of my medical students and residents...." Obviously, Mr. Quan, you can thank your lucky stars that you came from good stock and were given the opportunities and means including abilities to do what you did, not to mention that you got paid well enough to be able to invest and to retire early and very comfortably. All is luck, no more, no less. The believers, including Christians, will say you are very blessed meaning you are special. Back to Mr. Eric's question of saving and giving. 1. Do know harm, and one will know when saving/giving is helpful or harmful. 2.The goal of giving and saving is to alleviate and reduce suffering for oneself and/or others while alive and upon one's exit. 3. Charity begins at home. Giving to make a difference (preferably immediately) and to reduce the suffering of others while being mindful of #1. 4. life insurance policies - easiest and surest way to save and give to others provided one is qualified to purchase these polices. Partial disclosure. Helping (financially) relatives still left behind when I left Viet-Nam 50 years ago (at 13 on a damaged boat with a family of 11 plus an uncle and 2 cousins), and the last 10 years by paying for a first cousin's daughter's education and living expenses (in VN) who will be the first in her family to get a college degree (actually 2 degrees - at 35: BS - Physical Therapy and BA - English) this summer after 7 years of working and studying and continue on to get her Master and eventual Doctorate of Physical Therapy (with our continual financial support) as well as helping her nieces and nephews' tuition expenses. Last year's financial giving to VN alone amounted to 35% of our gross income without the benefits of tax deduction. On the other hand, we were lucky to be given the knowledge and ability to not reproduce and to live frugally in order to help others. In the end, we are all custodians of what we have been entrusted only to be distributed accordingly. To whom much is given, much is expected. Grateful to be given much. Thank you, HD."
- deusexmachina21
Read more »

The Jevons Paradox

IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, a leader in artificial intelligence, grabbed headlines. Amodei argued that the next generation of AI systems could replace half of entry-level jobs and drive up the unemployment rate to 20%. All of this could occur in the next five years, he said. Recent data seem to support these glum predictions. Mark Zuckerberg said AI will be as capable as a mid-level programmer by the end of this year. Microsoft announced thousands of job cuts this spring, with programmers disproportionately affected. In an announcement last week, Amazon’s CEO wrote, “It’s hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect artificial intelligence to reduce our total corporate workforce....” If these data points are a sign of things to come, it would certainly be concerning. This outcome isn’t guaranteed, though. To illustrate why I see things differently, let me share a recollection from some years ago. My father was a lawyer, and I remember visiting his office when I was a child. In hindsight, what was notable was there was no computer on his desk. There were no computers anywhere. To send correspondence, attorneys spoke into dictation machines. They then handed the machines’ miniature tapes to secretaries, who literally typed up a first draft on typewriters, using Wite Out to fix errors and carbon paper to make copies. The draft was then marked up in pen, a final copy retyped, placed in a stamped envelope, and mailed. Because of the amount of work involved, each attorney had a dedicated secretary who spent his or her days typing and retyping documents in the manner described above. Today, everyone seems to do their own correspondence and, as a result, there are far fewer secretarial jobs. But if we look back at historical data, we see that the invention of both the word processor and email didn’t cause any noticeable increase in unemployment. Why not? For starters, transitions like this occur slowly. Also, new technologies are rarely a net negative. Instead, they tend to create new jobs. Take a look at today’s law firm. It has far fewer traditional secretaries but significant numbers of IT people. (IT was nonexistent in the days of typewriters and dictaphones.) The transition in office work is the most recent change, but it’s by no means unique. Years ago, many people were employed as Morse code operators. Sam Altman, founder of OpenAI, commented that in the past there were also large numbers of people employed as lamplighters who traveled the city streets each night lighting gas lamps. More significantly, farming used to be a major sector of the workforce. In 1900, 40% of Americans worked on farms. Today, it’s less than 2%. These transitions were all significant, but none caused the sort of mass unemployment Dario Amodei forecasted. In fact, Amazon said it doesn’t expect AI to result in significant layoffs. Instead, the bulk of the headcount reduction is expected to occur through attrition—the normal course of employees changing jobs or retiring. Amazon provides another useful data point on this topic: The company now uses 750,000 robots in its warehouses. In theory, those robots would have taken more than 750,000 jobs, but that’s not what the overall employment data show. Unemployment today is near the low end of where it’s been over the past 75 years. How is it possible that technology has displaced jobs, and yet unemployment remains low? An economic principle known as the Jevons paradox can help us understand this. In the 1860s, William Jevons, a British economist, observed that manufacturing plants had become more efficient in their use of coal and yet, counterintuitively, the demand for coal was increasing. The explanation: As manufacturers realized they needed less coal to produce the same amount of output, they chose to expand their businesses into new areas, resulting in the use of more coal.  Over time, a second order effect kicked in. These gains in output led to wage increases and faster economic growth. That, in turn, further increased demand for coal. The adoption of artificial intelligence might deliver the same positive effects, with greater productivity leading to higher wages and faster economic growth without any loss in employment. Recent comments by the CEO of software vendor Box illustrate how the Jevons paradox might apply to AI. “AI is not replacing existing work that's being done,” he wrote, “but adding new capabilities to the organization.” Box, in other words, won’t use AI to cut costs; it will use the technology to do more.  He adds: “This means that companies can simply now attack the kinds of problems that just never were economically feasible to solve before…. Yes, there's certainly opportunity to automate some of the work that we currently do to drive efficiency, but the vast majority of work that we will bring automation to is the work that we just never got around to in the first place.” Interestingly, despite his concerns about employment, Amodei sees some of these same benefits. In the same interview in which he made his comments about unemployment, he also described some of the potential positive effects that AI might deliver: “Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced....” The reality is that this is all an open question. In a May interview, economist Daron Acemoglu, who recently won the Nobel Prize for his work on economic development, argues that AI will be able to replace only a fraction of jobs. But he adds, “It’s hugely uncertain, and it’s very difficult to know because it’s a very rapidly changing technology.” And that just may be the best way to think about AI. It’s all very new and still uncertain. While Amodei worries about a potentially negative impact, that’s just a guess. Economic history suggests it may very well go the other way. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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The Illusion of Wealth

"Spending is usually visible, and wealth hidden. In Psychology of Money Housel shares a story about his college job as a car valet. He realized people drooling over those expensive cars he parked are picturing themselves in it, not admiring the owner/driver. His point: if you want respect and admiration, there are far more effective ways to achieve it than blowing precious cash on fancy things, ways which allow you to compound wealth over time through savings you keep from the gap between your income and your ego."
- David Powell
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Manifesto

NO. 15: WE SHOULD retire our debts before we retire from our job. Paying off debt cuts our living expenses, plus that debt is likely costing us more than we’re earning on our bonds.

think

OVERCONFIDENCE. Most of us believe we’re above-average drivers, smarter than most and better looking. This overconfidence is often a good thing—it can boost happiness and help our careers—but it’s terrible for investment results. As they try to beat the market, the overconfident trade too much, take unnecessary risk and buy costly investments.

humans

NO. 34: WE overestimate our investment results. Got folks boasting about their portfolio’s performance? They may be ignoring the losers they’ve sold, bragging based on a few winners and failing to compare to an appropriate index. They may also suffer from the endowment effect, believing their winners have performed better than they really have.

act

INVEST YOUR TAXABLE account thoughtfully. If you purchase the wrong investments in your taxable account, you may be reluctant to sell because you’ll trigger capital gains taxes. A good choice: low-cost U.S. and international total stock market index funds, which should be tax-efficient—and which shouldn’t ever lag far behind the market averages.

My Money Journey

Manifesto

NO. 15: WE SHOULD retire our debts before we retire from our job. Paying off debt cuts our living expenses, plus that debt is likely costing us more than we’re earning on our bonds.

Spotlight: Health

An Unkind Cut

FOR FOLKS WHO HAVE retired, but aren’t yet age 65 and hence eligible for Medicare, health insurance can be a major concern. These folks typically aren’t covered by their old employer and are now searching for individual health insurance. The good news: There’s a tax credit available—one that I believe doesn’t get enough attention.
The advance premium tax credit, or APTC, is a credit you can take in advance of filing your taxes. It’s used to reduce your monthly medical insurance premiums.

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Unhealthy Claims

WHEN I STARTED winding down my psychology practice two years ago, I anticipated freeing up oodles of time for reflection and for hobbies long cast aside, such as collecting oldies albums and the coveted rookie cards of sports legends. But my patient hours were merely replaced by my own spiraling doctor visits.
I was disappointed and concerned about my declining medical status. Still, I was reassured by the reputation of my health insurance company and the comprehensiveness of my policy.

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Health care is always unaffordable – not really

Let’s say you have $50, $100, $200 and $500. 
I’m quite certain from time to time the average American would find spending those amounts affordable – on say a manicure, a round of golf, a tattoo, a couples night on the town or even attending a sporting event. For many people this would be true even if they charged the expense. 
It’s quite natural we receive pleasure from spending money, depending on what it is spent on.

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Hole Truth

SOON AFTER GRADUATING college and starting work, I visited a dentist I found in the Yellow Pages for a long overdue teeth cleaning and exam. Although I had never had a cavity, the dentist informed me that I had multiple cavities that urgently needed to be filled. Naïve me allowed this dentist to fill the two supposed cavities of most concern.
Somewhat traumatized, I avoided dentists for a time. Finally, I queried several older coworkers,

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Getting an Earful

I DON’T REMEMBER when my hearing started deteriorating. I suppose it came on gradually. I definitely remember when I developed tinnitus—ringing in the ears—and it was tinnitus that sent me to an audiologist in 2012.

She confirmed the information I’d already found on the internet: There’s no cure for tinnitus. While I would always miss the complete silence I’d previously enjoyed, at least mine was a tolerable background hum, unlike some horror stories I’d read.

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Sleep Disorder

This may be a stretch for the forum but I’m going to throw it out there and hope it helps someone.
When my first wife told me that I held my breath while sleeping I didn’t think much about it. Then Chris (new wife) told me that I stop breathing and probably have apnea, and should do a sleep study.
So I did. And I hated it. Dozens of wires attached all over my body. The worst of them on my head,

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Spotlight: Grossman

Fixing Your Mix

WITH YEAR-END IN sight, it’s a good time for some investment housekeeping. What’s worth your attention? Last week, I discussed the importance of asset allocation. According to research, this is the most significant portfolio decision you can make. But while asset allocation is important, it isn’t the only decision. Within each of the major asset classes, there’s another set of considerations. Bonds. Earlier this year, I conducted a survey on X, as Twitter is now known, asking whether a total bond market fund would, on its own, be sufficient to fill an investor’s bond allocation. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said no, and I share that opinion. Why? The bond market is larger and more diverse than the stock market and, for that reason, a broadly diversified basket of bonds may not be what best serves investors. Instead, investors may wish to narrow their bond holdings along several dimensions. The first dimension is what’s known as duration. A bond’s duration is similar to its maturity, and measures how long it would take an investor to get their money back. Bonds with longer durations—or bond funds with longer average durations—face more risk when interest rates rise. That’s precisely what we saw in 2022, when total bond market funds, which have a duration of around six years, lost 13% of their value. By contrast, funds with shorter durations experienced much more modest losses. For example, Vanguard’s Short-Term Bond ETF, with a duration around 2.6 years, lost just 5.5% last year. The next consideration is the type of issuer. Bonds are issued by the federal government, by state and local governments, by foreign governments, and by corporations. And all of these, with the exception of U.S. Treasury bonds, are available from issuers of all different levels of creditworthiness. A final consideration when choosing bonds: whether to invest in a bond fund or individual bonds. You can find high-quality, low-cost funds covering each corner of the bond market, plus investing through funds typically makes life simpler. Still, there’s an exception to consider. With yields at 15-year highs, you might want to build a ladder of individual bonds to lock in today’s yields. If you go this route, I’d offer one caution: Because the bond market is far more opaque than the stock market, the only type of bond I’d purchase individually would be U.S. Treasurys. Because of its size, the market for Treasurys is much less opaque. Remember, the bond market—unlike the stock market—has no centralized exchanges with quoted prices. That makes it much easier for professional bond traders to take advantage of individual investors. The upshot: For bonds other than Treasurys, I’d opt for a fund or, depending on the size of your portfolio, a dedicated bond manager. I wouldn’t try buying municipal, corporate or international bonds individually. Real estate. For many years, real estate seemed to only go up. But with elevated interest rates, some corners of the real estate market are seeing declines. This presents an opportunity for buyers. Intrigued? There are at least four key decisions to make. First, decide whether you want to participate via equity or debt. In other words, do you want to own a property, or do you want to be a lender to those who are buying properties? Second, if you opt to be an owner, decide whether you want to own property directly or through a fund. Owning a rental property directly generally results in much better economics for the investor. It also, however, means more work. There’s no right or wrong answer here, but it’s probably the most important decision for real estate investors. [xyz-ihs snippet="Holiday-Donate"] Third, decide how you want to allocate your available funds among properties. If you invest all your money in one single-family home, for example, you’ll gain simplicity but give up diversification. Choose a multi-family property or a collection of smaller homes, on the other hand, and you’ll have more to manage, but a problem with any one unit won’t be as damaging. Fourth, think about geography. If you’re managing a rental yourself, it’s ideal if it’s close by. On the other hand, if you don’t mind hiring a property manager, you might benefit from diversifying geographically. Stocks. In another survey I conducted this year, I asked readers whether a total stock market fund would be sufficient to fill an investor’s stock allocation. As with the bond survey, only a minority said yes, but the percentage was notably higher. In other words, more investors would be satisfied with a total market fund for stocks than for bonds. That result makes sense to me. As discussed above, the bond market is much more diverse, and certain types of bonds simply don’t make sense for certain investors. With stocks, that’s far less likely to be true, so investors’ best bet is to opt for broad diversification. Indeed, with stocks, the key risk is being too concentrated—in other words, being under-diversified. If you're reviewing your stock holdings, that’s the primary screen I recommend. Examine whether your stock holdings are too heavily weighted in one company, one industry or some narrow slice of the market. Because of the runup in technology shares, it’s not uncommon to see portfolios with a huge bet on a handful of stocks, such as Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. A variety of tools, including Morningstar’s X-Ray, make it easy to look under the hood of your portfolio and see risks like this. A final note. Across all asset classes, there’s another key decision to make: whether to invest only in publicly traded investments or to get involved with private funds. To be sure, private funds have an allure. But they’re also characterized by high fees, illiquidity, lack of transparency and often tax-inefficiency. That’s why the late David Swensen, who promoted the use of private funds during his long tenure running Yale University’s endowment—and had great success with that strategy—went out of his way to advise individual investors to do precisely the opposite. In fact, he wrote an entire book on the topic. As you think about investment choices for 2024, this is a key factor to keep in mind. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X (Twitter) @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Three Ps

IS FINANCIAL PLANNING a product or a process? In other words, is a financial plan a document that you can print, bind and put on your shelf—or is it an ongoing activity? This is something of a religious debate within the finance community. Supporters of the “it's a product” view are usually dyed-in-the-wool financial planners. Not surprisingly, they believe that financial planning should result in a physical plan—an exhaustive, detailed document that’s full of analysis and projections. Meanwhile, supporters of the “it's a process” philosophy are usually people whose DNA leans more toward investing than planning. They prefer the action and excitement of the stock market and see financial planners as bean counters who spend too much time fine-tuning their spreadsheets. These folks believe most financial planning can be done on the fly and that the best plan is simply to find winning investments. To be fair, they might produce a chart or two, but then it’s off to the races with investments. Which group is right? Like most religious debates, each side makes valid points, but I also believe each is too extreme. The ideal solution, in my experience, blends both product and process. Others have made the analogy to a military battle plan. You wouldn’t rush onto a battlefield without a plan. But once there, you need to be flexible, because things never go exactly to plan. As long as you achieve your objectives, it's okay if your ultimate path deviates from your original plan. To me, that approach represents the ideal blend of product and process. Think of financial planning as involving three steps. Step No. 1: Plan. This is the “product” part of financial planning. As a first step, I always start with the “big four”—that is, your assets, liabilities, income and expenses. If you can get those basics on one or two pieces of paper, you'll be off to a great start. Continuing with the military analogy, these four variables tell you which way to march. Step No. 2: Prioritize. Managing your finances isn’t your fulltime job, so you want to focus first on your top priorities. These will be different for each person. But pressing issues might include a portfolio that’s too risky, insufficient life insurance, or a potential estate-tax bill that would outstrip a family's liquid assets and put the family business at risk. In my experience, if you can address these kinds of tasks right away, you’ll sleep easier—and then you can tackle the longer list of lower-priority items. Step No. 3: Proceed. This is where financial planning becomes a process. As life evolves, certain events will unfold just as you had hoped: getting married, having children, building your career, sending your children to college, celebrating their weddings, retiring. But many events will be unexpected. Some will be positive: professional success, a lucky investment or perhaps a large inheritance. And some will be negative, such as an illness or career setback. Because everyone will experience some mix of the positive and not-so-positive, it’s important that your plan is built with a margin for error and that you revisit it regularly. How regularly? In my experience, you want to update your plan at each life event that materially changes the “big four.” You’ll also want to mark your calendar to take certain steps in every tax year. Depending on your stage in life, this might be an IRA contribution or distribution, a 529 contribution, a charitable gift, exercising stock options or chipping away at a large, concentrated position in an investment. Adam M. Grossman’s previous articles include Free Lunch, Face Plant and Eye on the Ball. Adam is the founder of Mayport Wealth Management, a fixed-fee financial planning firm in Boston. He’s an advocate of evidence-based investing and is on a mission to lower the cost of investment advice for consumers. Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamMGrossman. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Happiness Formula

CLAY COCKRELL HAS an unusual job. He describes himself as a psychotherapist treating the “1% of the 1%” in New York City. From this vantage point, Cockrell has gained unique insights into the lives of the extremely wealthy. What conclusions does he draw about money and happiness? “If you have an enemy,” Cockrell says, “go buy them a lottery ticket because, on the off-chance that they win, their life is going to be really messed up.” This observation fits well with the aphorism that “money doesn’t buy happiness.” There’s a growing body of research supporting this view. Lots of professional athletes run into financial distress, despite earning millions. Lottery winners seem like a particularly unfortunate lot. Even the neighbors of lottery winners end up worse off. But those who aren’t wealthy are quick to rebut claims that money doesn’t buy happiness. Having too little money can also carry negative consequences. If both too much and too little money can be problematic, where does that leave us? In researching this question, I wasn't surprised to learn that the single most popular class in the 318-year history of Yale University is called “Psychology and the Good Life.” The topic: happiness and how to achieve it. Each semester, more than 1,000 students enroll. This suggests that most people’s ultimate goal isn’t to accumulate the most dollars. Rather, it’s to accumulate maximum happiness. Does this mean there’s no connection between money and happiness? Far from it. It's just that the relationship is complex. Consider three insights from the research: 1. Money does indeed buy happiness—but to a limited extent. If you earn $40,000, you’ll definitely feel happier if you get a raise. But those benefits top out more quickly than you might expect—at around $75,000. People who earn $500,000 are indeed happier than those who earn $50,000, but not 10 times happier. The same applies to retirees: Those with $1 million in the bank are certainly happier than those with $100,000, but the happiness benefits aren’t proportional to the sum involved. The lesson: You should work hard and save diligently, but be aware of what’s known as the "arrival fallacy." This is the tendency to say to ourselves, “I’ll be happy when _____.” Clay Cockrell describes one patient who had $500 million, but really wanted to get to $1 billion to feel truly secure. That’s an extreme case, but you get the point: We would all like a few more dollars, but the evidence suggests that—unless you’re truly destitute—it probably won’t help. While you might find this conclusion discouraging, I think it’s comforting. It means that the road to greater happiness doesn’t necessarily require more money. 2. How you spend your money is far more important than how much you have. According to retirement researcher Michael Finke, the best way to spend your money is in ways that bring you greater socialization. We should invest in friendships, even if it means traveling long distances. That’s money well spent. Time with grandchildren also increases happiness. While Finke wouldn't recommend buying an expensive toy like an antique car, he points out that the litmus test should be socialization. If you drive the car by yourself, it does no good. But if it brings you into contact with other classic car enthusiasts, that could be beneficial. 3. In retirement, guaranteed income may be more valuable than higher income. According to a happiness survey by Towers Watson, workers with pensions, annuities or other reliable income sources experience lower levels of anxiety than those who rely entirely on their investment portfolios during retirement, regardless of the portfolio’s size. This is an extremely important point. In many cases, people make financial decisions only through the lens of maximizing wealth. But what this study shows is that maximizing peace of mind is actually a more important goal. How can you structure your finances to achieve greater peace of mind? There’s a number of ways—and often they run contrary to conventional wisdom. Annuities, for example, have a bad reputation due to their fees, complexity and inherent longevity gamble. But if you want a secure retirement, a low-cost annuity might not be such a bad idea. By the same token, many investors today prefer to maintain higher allocations to stocks, instead of earning thin yields in the bond market. But if you don’t need to take additional stock market risk, maybe it makes sense to adopt a more defensive posture. In other words, don’t worry about forgoing potential upside in the stock market. Instead, focus on the increased peace of mind you’ll achieve in the bond market. Many years ago, I knew an investor who preferred to keep $1 million in his checking account at all times. While conventional wisdom would say this was irrational, I always felt it made perfect sense. You alone are the best judge of what will help you sleep at night. Adam M. Grossman’s previous articles include Yet Another Reason, Peter Principles and But Will It Work. Adam is the founder of Mayport Wealth Management, a fixed-fee financial planning firm in Boston. He’s an advocate of evidence-based investing and is on a mission to lower the cost of investment advice for consumers. Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamMGrossman. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Inflation Ahead?

IN THE INVESTMENT world, inflation is the topic of the day. There are four key reasons: Congress. Since March 2020, the federal government has dropped more than a trillion dollars of cash into the economy via stimulus checks and the Paycheck Protection Program. While many of the recipients were unemployed and needed these dollars to meet basic needs, others were not. The result: More money in people’s pockets allowed them to spend more, pushing up prices for many products. Many of these stimulus dollars also found their way into the stock market, which has helped lift share prices. This newly created wealth, in turn, has helped drive up prices for some big-ticket items, including houses. The Fed. Last year, the Federal Reserve announced a policy shift. Going forward, the central bank plans to put less emphasis on controlling inflation and more emphasis on maintaining full employment. The Fed will, in fact, permit inflation to run a little hotter than it might have in the past. In recent statements, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this stance, even as he acknowledged that super-low interest rates and a recovering economy are causing prices to rise. Fear. In recent years, inflation has been very low by historical standards—often below 2%. Still, it wasn’t all that long ago that inflation was north of 10%, contributing to the economic malaise of the 1970s. We’ve all read about the disastrous effects of high inflation in other countries. When Congress recently approved plans to spend another trillion dollars on infrastructure and other initiatives, people started worrying more. Expectations. Since the pandemic began, the Federal Reserve has held its federal funds rate near zero and has communicated that it plans to leave it at that level for at least a few more years. What do interest rates have to do with inflation? Implicit in the Fed’s position is the belief that the economy will remain weak enough to require the support of continued low interest rates. By extension, if the economy is weak, inflation should also remain low. That’s the Fed’s view. But investors seem to disagree. From a low around 0.5% last summer, the rate on 10-year Treasury notes climbed above 1.7% in recent weeks and ended Friday at 1.59%. When market interest rates jump like this, it’s an indirect sign that investors see inflation coming. In other words, investors aren’t buying the Fed’s assertion that inflation will remain low in the coming years. If there’s reason to believe that higher inflation might be on its way, how can you protect your portfolio? Below I’ll describe how inflation normally affects three key asset classes: bonds, stocks and gold. Bonds. Because most bonds make fixed interest payments, they’re a poor investment when inflation starts rising. The only exceptions are floating-rate bonds, which are somewhat rare, and a few flavors of U.S. government bonds, including Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which I recommend. TIPS are directly tied to the consumer price index. This guarantees that their interest payments will keep up with inflation. How exactly do TIPS work? Twice a year, the government adjusts the price of TIPS bonds. When inflation is higher, it marks the price up. Interest payments are then recalculated using the bond’s new, higher price. But TIPS aren’t an entirely free lunch. When there's deflation, the government marks down the price of TIPS bonds, resulting in lower interest payments. Upon maturity, however, holders never get less than a bond's original principal value. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"] When you buy a TIPS bond, there is an inflation rate implied—often called the “breakeven rate.” Today, that breakeven rate is around 2.3%. If inflation turns out to be higher down the road, you’ll do better with TIPS than with regular Treasury bonds. On the other hand, if inflation is lower, you’ll be worse off. That’s why I recommend diversifying, holding both standard and inflation-protected bonds. If you own a total bond market fund, it’s important to know that these funds don’t include TIPS. They include only standard Treasury bonds. If you own only a total market fund, I would supplement it with a separate TIPS holding. Stocks. These are much more resilient when inflation strikes. To understand why, consider this thought experiment: Suppose you’re the chief executive of an auto manufacturer. In ordinary times, it costs you $20,000 to make each car. You then add on 50% for the company's profit and sell them for $30,000. If you sell a million cars a year and earn $10,000 on each, your total company profits will be $10 billion. Now suppose inflation hits, and suddenly your costs rise by 25%. Instead of $20,000, it costs you $25,000 to build each car. To maintain the same profit margin, you tack on 50% and sell each one for $37,500. If you still sell a million cars, but your profit margin is now $12,500 per car, your total company profits will rise to $12.5 billion. That’s exactly 25% higher than your company’s profits were before inflation struck. And since—all else being equal—share prices follow corporate profits, your company’s stock price should also rise by 25%, right in line with inflation. This is a simplified example, but that’s the basic idea. As long as a company can raise its own prices to keep up with inflation, its stock price should keep up with inflation as well. To be sure, there are caveats. Some companies will find it harder to raise prices. But overall, stocks are, in my opinion, investors’ best protection against inflation. Gold. In the 1970s, when inflation was running high in the U.S., gold enjoyed a golden era, climbing from about $100 per ounce in 1976 to more than $700 in 1980. Ever since, gold has enjoyed a reputation as an ideal hedge against inflation. But unfortunately, it’s also been a poor long-term investment. Following that peak in 1980, gold dropped—and took 27 years to reclaim its prior high. On top of that, aside from that one period in the 1970s, gold has demonstrated very little correlation with inflation. As I’ve noted before, gold lacks intrinsic value, meaning that it doesn’t generate any income. That’s in contrast to other major types of assets. Many stocks produce dividends, bonds produce interest and real estate produces rent—but gold produces nothing. That’s why it shouldn’t be any surprise that its price meanders aimlessly over time, much like bitcoin, and for the same reason. Both are viewed as inflation hedges. But in both cases, I believe it's a mirage. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. In his series of free e-books, he advocates an evidence-based approach to personal finance. Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Counting Down

IT'S FIVE WEEKS UNTIL the end of the year—which is five weeks during which you can do some valuable financial housekeeping. Here are seven recommendations: 1. Give tax efficiently. In the past, charitable contributions were a direct and easy way to lower your tax bill. But with the recent tax law changes, which include a big hike in the standard deduction and limits on some itemized deductions, this strategy doesn't work as well. My suggestion: Consider opening a donor-advised fund and making contributions using an every-other-year strategy, so you're more likely to get a tax break for your generosity. 2. Claim your Social Security account. The Social Security Administration has an excellent website that provides easy access to your benefits statement. I urge you to sign up for two reasons. First, to build a complete retirement plan, you need to know what size benefit to expect from Social Security. If you're married, or ever were married, you're likely entitled to a spousal benefit, which you'll want to research as well. Second, Social Security is, unfortunately, susceptible to fraud. There have been cases where thieves have successfully applied for and received benefits under someone else's name. No one is immune to fraud. But when you set up your online account—and secure it with two-factor authentication—you lower the likelihood of this happening. 3. Audit your portfolio (1). Around year-end, the conventional wisdom is to conduct tax-loss harvesting—that is, scour your taxable investment account for losses in an effort to trim your tax bill. While that’s a worthy exercise, I also recommend a different kind of harvesting: Thin out the chaff—the inferior or overpriced investments—that may be hiding among your investments. While everyone hates taxes, don’t let the tax tail wag the investment dog. In other words, don't be so allergic to paying capital gains taxes that you suffer for prolonged periods with subpar investments. 4. Audit your portfolio (2). In the past, I’ve compared mutual fund companies to junk food manufacturers, constantly churning out new, unnecessary and unnecessarily expensive variations on existing funds. Over time, especially if you work with a broker, these types of investments may accumulate in your portfolio. In an article last year, I outlined a four-part litmus test for evaluating investments. My recommendation: If you have some downtime over the holidays, take an hour to scrub your portfolio using my litmus test. If an investment doesn't make any sense to you, contact your broker and ask him or her to explain it. If your broker’s explanation doesn't make any sense, consider selling. 5. Audit your portfolio (3). After several years of mostly steady gains, markets in the U.S. have become more volatile over the past two months. While this can be unnerving, I see a silver lining: It’s a gentle reminder that the stock market can go down as easily as it can go up—perhaps more easily. Consider the performance of some of the market's favorite stocks this year: Apple is down nearly 26% since the beginning of October, Facebook is down more than 39% since the summer, and chip maker NVIDIA is down a sobering 50% from its high. No one can predict where the market will go next, but you definitely can reduce risk by ensuring you don't have outsized exposure to any one investment. 6. Hedge your bets on estate taxes. One benefit of the 2017 tax overhaul is that federal estate taxes now impact far fewer families. Still, as I pointed out last week, there’s no guarantee this will always be the case. If you have substantial assets, I still recommend making regular annual gifts to your children. In 2018, you can give $15,000 to as many people as you want without any tax consequences. If you have a multi-million-dollar net worth, this may not sound like a lot. But suppose you're married and have three children. You could give your children a total of $90,000 ($15,000 x 2 parents x 3 children) every year without any impact on your lifetime federal estate tax exclusion. 7. Visit your accountant. During tax season, accountants are so inundated with work that they can barely keep their heads above water. At this time of year, though, they're happy to have visitors. My suggestion: If you use a CPA, take an hour to sit down with him or her and revisit your 2017 tax return. Ask your accountant to walk you through it, and ask for observations and recommendations. Understand the key drivers of your tax bill and ask what steps you could take to reduce it this year. Even if you don't walk away with any real savings opportunities, it’ll be an hour well spent, because it will give you an opportunity to learn the basic mechanics of a tax return. Adam M. Grossman’s previous articles include Deadly Serious, Five Messy Steps, Hole Story and Seeking Zero. Adam is the founder of Mayport Wealth Management, a fixed-fee financial planning firm in Boston. He’s an advocate of evidence-based investing and is on a mission to lower the cost of investment advice for consumers. Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamMGrossman. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Oddly Effective

MY FATHER-IN-LAW—known to his family as Papa—passed away earlier this month. After 96 years, he had developed a number of money habits that were unconventional but quite effective, including these three: 1. Focused frugality. Papa was frugal, but not in the conventional sense. He didn’t practice extreme frugality and saw no virtue in intentional self-denial. Rather, he practiced what I would call focused frugality. If something was important—his children’s education, for example—he was happy to write that check. He also loved to travel. In those cases, Papa left frugality at the door. But for everything else, he stretched a dollar as far as it would go. And that ended up being remarkably far. In his later years, I served as my father-in-law’s informal financial advisor. During one of our periodic reviews, he asked what I thought about his asset allocation—that is, his split between stocks and other assets. I responded with a standard question asked by financial planners: “How much do you need to withdraw from your account each year?” His reply was one I had never heard before—certainly not from a retiree. “What do you mean by need?” he asked. After some more discussion, I realized that, even in his late 80s, his retirement accounts remained untouched, other than for required minimum distributions. How did he accomplish this? In large part, I believe, it was this focused frugality. The lesson: A penny saved is a penny earned. Even if you spend freely with one part of your budget, that doesn’t mean you need to abandon frugality altogether. You can take nice vacations and drive a nice car, and still clip coupons. These are not mutually exclusive. In fact, I see them as symbiotic. When you economize ruthlessly in one area, that allows you to spend freely in other areas. 2. “Inefficient” debt management. It would be an overstatement to say my father-in-law hated debt. But having grown up in North Africa, he simply wasn’t accustomed to it. He took out a mortgage to buy a home but, other than that, I don’t think he ever carried a dime of debt: no credit cards, no car loans, no home-equity line of credit, nothing. In America, where consumers hold almost $14 trillion of debt, this certainly made him unusual. I always found this interesting, because any personal finance textbook will tell you that debt, used wisely, is not necessarily a bad thing. Conventional wisdom, in fact, states that consumers should be happy to borrow money when it enables them to invest and earn potentially higher returns. Papa, however, wasn't interested in what the textbook said. He took a much more straightforward approach. He would buy something only if he could pay cash. What if he couldn't? The purchase would simply have to wait. The lesson: In theory, it’s inefficient to avoid debt. But my father-in-law was not the only one to realize that “efficiency” is just a textbook concept. In the real world, there are many benefits to limiting debt. There’s the peace-of-mind benefit. But there's another, more subtle advantage: When you stick to cash for major purchases, the inevitable result is that you end up spending less. In fact, research has found that consumers spend up to 50% less when they use cash instead of a credit card. Looking to trim your budget? Try leaving your credit cards at home for a week. 3. “Inefficient” asset allocation. For a retiree in his or her 80s or 90s, a typical asset allocation would consist mainly of bonds. My father-in-law, however, never saw the appeal of bonds and instead limited his portfolio to stocks and cash. Was this inefficient? Yes, perhaps he could have earned more by owning bonds instead of cash. But this is what he preferred. The lesson: The definition of the “best” investment portfolio isn’t necessarily the one that offers the greatest profit potential. The best portfolio, especially for a do-it-yourself investor, is the one that is easy to set up, easy to manage and allows you to reach your goals. You run a far greater risk trying to make your portfolio “sophisticated” than by simplifying it. Never forget: Simple doesn’t mean simplistic. Adam M. Grossman’s previous articles include Fact vs. Fantasy, Out of Stock and Say No to Mo. Adam is the founder of Mayport Wealth Management, a fixed-fee financial planning firm in Boston. He’s an advocate of evidence-based investing and is on a mission to lower the cost of investment advice for consumers. Follow Adam on Twitter @AdamMGrossman. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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