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Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"I guess there are certain things we do which do not make economic sense. We do them anyway, because they are fun."
- Jack Hannam
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A Place At The Table

"I think you did the right things, Mark. What amazing adventures to have experienced in the moment and now to share with the younger generations."
- Linda Grady
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Americans and their credit cards

"Of course. The lowest income quartile may struggle, but gradually with prudent behavior and time it can be done. Much of the doom and gloom about personal financial is generated from surveys. (Including about credit card use) Hardly a reliable source. Does anyone believe 60% of Americans live P to P indicating they have insufficient income as often implied?"
- R Quinn
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Blood Money

"Xom is an evil oil company and I own it and feel guilty about owning it. Same for KO which I owned from my teens but feel guilty at how good n investment it’s been. Probably not as good as spy but good enough."
- Nick Politakis
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The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
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Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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You Heel!

"William Perry, All the Canadians I met along the way were quite polite about it but I could tell they were more than a little upset. A young couple I met in Banff mentioned the desire to travel to the US, though they were going to hold off for the near future."
- Michael Flack
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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How Did You Find Paid Work After Retiring from Your Primary Career?

"Good question. I truly believe everyone and there journeys are different. After 33 years of commission route sales and the hectic pace and hours that went along with it I knew I didn't want to sit around or start a similar rat race in retirement. Living in a smaller town it's all about connections, everybody knows someone so it's fairly easy to find a job. A lot of it is not what you know but who you know. I retired for three days 😂 before starting to work at our Middle School as a teachers aide. After almost fifteen years of that I retired again. I have now worked seasonally for the last eight years in our city's Parks department, enjoying the outdoors at a much slower pace along with no pressure of any kind"
- L H
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Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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TreasuryDirect changing login procedure to mandate ID.me later in 2026

"In the county I live in there recently has been just two smaller local financial institutions who still redeemed US government paper savings bonds. Both financial institutions (one a bank with a state charter, one a credit union) has limited that service strictly for their own account holders whose banking accounts are with long term customers with active accounts. With all of the changes currently occurring at Treasury Direct my expectation is the number of financial institutions redeeming old paper savings bonds for customers will soon be zero. Over the counter sales of paper savings bonds ended in 2012 and the purchase of paper savings Bonds using overpayment of taxes (which next to no one did) ended in 2025. If you own paper US Bonds you are likely doing your heirs a favor by redeeming them sooner rather than later."
- William Perry
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Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"I guess there are certain things we do which do not make economic sense. We do them anyway, because they are fun."
- Jack Hannam
Read more »

A Place At The Table

"I think you did the right things, Mark. What amazing adventures to have experienced in the moment and now to share with the younger generations."
- Linda Grady
Read more »

Americans and their credit cards

"Of course. The lowest income quartile may struggle, but gradually with prudent behavior and time it can be done. Much of the doom and gloom about personal financial is generated from surveys. (Including about credit card use) Hardly a reliable source. Does anyone believe 60% of Americans live P to P indicating they have insufficient income as often implied?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

Blood Money

"Xom is an evil oil company and I own it and feel guilty about owning it. Same for KO which I owned from my teens but feel guilty at how good n investment it’s been. Probably not as good as spy but good enough."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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You Heel!

"William Perry, All the Canadians I met along the way were quite polite about it but I could tell they were more than a little upset. A young couple I met in Banff mentioned the desire to travel to the US, though they were going to hold off for the near future."
- Michael Flack
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Truths

NO. 97: IT’S HARD to say “no” to our adult children if they get into financial trouble—which is why we should try to raise money-savvy kids. But how? Set a good example. Talk regularly about your own finances. Tell your kids about your lean early adult years. Involve them in family financial decisions. Encourage them to save up for larger purchases.

think

HABIT FORMATION. To improve our behavior—financial and otherwise—we need to turn our desired good behavior into habits. That might require doing the right thing daily for perhaps two months. To get through this transition period, helpful strategies include sharing our resolutions with others, visualizing our goals and automating our savings program.

act

RENT OUT YOUR HOME for 14 days or less each year. If you stay under this limit, you don’t have to pay taxes on the income you receive, though you also can’t deduct any expenses you incur. Such short-term rentals can be lucrative if, say, you live near a major annual sporting event or near a college where hotel rooms are in short supply during graduation.

Basics

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Spotlight: Life Events

Deeply Rooted

JUNE MARKS THREE years since my mum passed from complications of vascular dementia. It was a tough couple of years, watching her mind slowly fail and her world shrink a little more with each passing month. Anyone who has cared for a loved one in the late stages of dementia will know how difficult and disjointed even the simplest conversation becomes. The loops, the confusion, the frustration of trying to redirect someone you love from a thought they can no longer find their way out of.

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My Inheritance

WE’VE ALL HEARD of the obscure relative—often a long-forgotten uncle or aunt—who leaves behind a surprise inheritance. This usually only happens in fairy tales, trashy novels and screwball comedy movies. I certainly never expected it to happen to me, especially at this late stage. But happen it did—from my lifelong friend Katie, who bequeathed me a generous sum.
I learned I was a beneficiary from the will’s executor and from a subsequent letter from the attorney handling the estate.

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What will you do with $5,000?

DOGE is considering sending all Americans $5,000 as a dividend on all the savings that have been achieved by firing, slashing and burning various government agencies.  My question is what will you do with your $5,000?
If it sounds too good to be true, see:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-mulls-giving-americans-165329483.html

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My Money Memories

So much of what we do in life involves money, and yet the vast majority of these transactions quickly disappear from our memory. What sticks? Here are nine of my most vivid money memories.
1. My older brothers—who are identical twins—and I were regulars at the local community pool, starting when I was age four. Our parents or our au pair would throw pennies into the pool, and we’d dive in and fish them out.
How much were these pennies worth?

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After Loss, Love Again

I belong to a club I never wanted to join: women who have outlived their husbands. Like me, millions of baby boomer women, and now Gen Xers too, will face life without their long-term partner.
Thankfully, today’s widows have more choices than our great-grandmothers did. Some of us embrace living solo. Others are surprised to find companionship again, sometimes even love. That next chapter can be sweet, but it’s also financially complex.
I know this firsthand.

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Hitting Repeat

Earlier this week, I asked readers, “If you could go anywhere in the world on your next trip, where would it be? If you could savor any experience, what would it be?”
I didn’t offer my own response—because I didn’t have one. At this point, I don’t have a strong urge to go to some exotic locale or try some new experience. On the other hand, there are places and experiences from my past that call to me.

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Spotlight: Zaccardi

Cooking Up a Story

I’VE PREPARED countless meals over the past few months—a result of COVID-19, which continues to have a big impact on daily life, especially here in Florida. Still, I’ve come to enjoy cooking and eating at home has saved me a ton of money. But not all coronavirus habits have been good for our financial health. That brings me to the (supposed) rise of the Robinhood trader. By now, we’ve all seen the headlines and read the stories. During the first half of 2020, one of the great narratives was the surge in trading among millennials and the generation that followed them, Gen Z. The storyline: These small traders were bidding up bankrupt company stocks, while also making COVID-19 plays like Zoom even hotter. These smalltime players have even been fingered for the recent stellar market performance of Tesla. I love a good yarn as much as the next guy. But in this case, the evidence just isn’t there. A few weeks ago, Goldman Sachs produced a research note showing that, yes, individual investors are trading stocks and options more actively. But can we put some numbers on that? It turns out we can. Goldman’s researchers calculated small-sized buy and sell orders for stocks and options as a percent of total trading activity. Result? Small traders have lately accounted for about 2% of stock trading volume and 13% of options volume. These may not be perfect indicators of small investor activity, but they’re probably not too far off. What individual stocks have small investors been trading? The ones you’d probably expect: Tesla, Netflix, Chipotle, Beyond Meat and Zoom. What’s driving the increase in retail trading volume? Three factors seem to be at play: Commission-free trades. Brokerage commissions basically went to zero over the past two years as brokerage firms have fought…
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Cheap to Cheaper

BORED ONE WEEKEND, I took up actor Ryan Reynolds on his offer to switch cellphone carriers. Frugal guy that I am, I’d been a loyal Republic Wireless subscriber for several years before my recent change. My new plan is on the Mint Mobile platform. Perhaps you’ve seen Mint’s commercials on NFL Sunday or when perusing YouTube videos, with its offer of four gigabytes of data with unlimited text and calls. This will cost me a measly $201 a year, including taxes and fees. That isn't a huge savings from Republic’s service, which costs $243 all-in, but the three extra gigabytes are a nice feature, so I don’t have to be mindful of going over my data limit and incurring fees. I’m not advocating readers switch to this ultra-low-cost cellphone plan provider to save such a paltry sum. So far, however, I’m quite pleased with the no-frills and dirt-cheap service Mint delivers. The transition from Republic to Mint was also easy. Mint sent me a kit with a SIM card. I popped it in and was off to the races after just a few hours of being without service. Kudos to Republic, though. My former carrier was kind enough to reimburse the few weeks of coverage I'd already paid for when I went to cancel. In an economy with rising prices everywhere, it’s great that a cellphone bill can be so small. If you’re in the market for a new, lower-cost cellphone plan, consider Mint. What shall I do with the whopping $42 annual cost cut? Maybe I’ll embark on one of my favorite indulgences—a trip to the Brazilian steakhouse.
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Unexpected Bonus

FRUGALITY GETS A BAD rap these days. It seems today’s standard advice is to “go ahead and buy your darn daily latte.” Instead, we’re told to worry about bigger financial issues. That’s probably good advice. Small purchases here and there will likely boost our mood, while clipping coupons probably won’t move the net worth needle. Still, I’ve adopted a cheapskate practice that can be lucrative: brokerage firm retention bonuses. To snag these bonuses, you typically need a sizable IRA or taxable account. The strategy is to call up your brokerage firm and mention a juicy cash transfer offer you see at a competing asset manager. Don’t be surprised if the firm matches that offer if you simply stay put. I had this happen three times last year. I was simply looking to consolidate accounts, but none of the investment companies wanted me to leave. The result was more than $1,000 of retention bonus money plopped into one IRA and two taxable accounts. Be aware that you’ll receive a 1099 on a bonus paid to your taxable account. Another thing to consider: If you end up sticking with high-cost funds, that can effectively negate any cash bonus. For example, if you own an index fund at 0.14%, but could own the same thing for 0.04% elsewhere, that’s $500 per year of extra fees on a $500,000 position. I wasn’t looking to score retention bonuses a year ago. I just took what was offered. My plan (don’t tell anyone) is to try the same routine in about six months. I’ll let you know how it goes.
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Eyeing the Aisles

ALDI IS A POPULAR grocery store chain with a cult-like following in some parts of the country. This family-owned business is based in Germany but currently expanding in the U.S. I always knew that frugal shoppers loved Aldi. Still, I was surprised to learn just how inexpensive the company’s products are. According to a recent Bank of America Global Research study of the Nashville area, Walmart has the cheapest prices among conventional, mass and specialty grocers, and even compared to dollar stores. But it turns out Aldi is even cheaper—by 4%. I prefer Walmart’s one-stop shopping experience. I can also get in and out quickly with self-checkout at “Wally World,” whereas Aldi customers typically wait in line at the register. What’s more, Aldi shoppers must make a small deposit just to use a cart, an annoying inconvenience in my eyes. What’s also interesting about the Bank of America survey is how expensive Whole Foods and even Publix are compared to Walmart’s dirt-cheap prices. The results show that Whole Paycheck—err, Whole Foods—is a whopping 42% pricier. Publix, the beloved Florida-based grocery store chain, is almost as expensive as Whole Foods and some 37% pricier than Walmart. Having worked at Publix for several years in high school and college, I like to keep tabs on grocery industry trends. To this day, I remain an owner of Publix shares through a pair of retirement plans. While I love my shares, I’m not as fond of those high grocery prices. I’ll stick with Walmart for its everyday low prices.
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Falling Like a Brick

IF YOU THINK STOCKS have fallen fast this year, check out the collapse in the National Association of Realtors’ housing affordability index. The index tracks how financially easy it is for the typical family to buy a house with a conventional 30-year mortgage. May’s reading of 102.5 is down sharply from the 154.4 recorded in December 2021 and it’s just a whisker away from the lowest levels seen in the past four decades. For those of us in the southern U.S., we have to go back to the mid-1980s to find worse purchasing conditions. It’s a sobering reality for first-time homebuyers, who must contend with higher interest rates and still-soaring property values. Today’s environment is a far cry from the generous buying conditions seen in early 2021, when the index was above 170. Back then, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was roughly 3%, while home prices were nearly 20% lower. Survey data from the end of last week show the current 30-year mortgage rate at a whopping 5.84%. You have to wonder: Are falling home prices just around the corner? Goldman Sachs puts out its own version of the housing affordability index. The investment bank’s gauge likewise illustrates a stunningly expensive turn in the domestic housing market—the worst since it started tracking affordability in 1996. But there are bright spots. First, families are making more now than in early 2021. But the 4.5% rise in median household income has, alas, been less than the rise in home prices and inflation more generally. Second, families are well positioned today to meet the challenges of high real estate prices and steep borrowing costs. Household financial obligations, as a percent of disposable personal income, remain incredibly low by historical standards. This figure compares debt payments, lease payments, property taxes and rents to after-tax income. It…
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A Few Extra Bucks

MY FIRST JOB DURING high school was bagging groceries at Publix Super Markets. The starting wage was a cool $7 per hour in 2004. That was big money to me. It meant I could work the weekends and a few nights a week, and then buy music CDs on eBay. My 2005 goal was to earn enough to fund a Roth IRA at Vanguard Group. Today’s teenagers have it better. Don’t take my word for it: The latest wage growth tracker, courtesy of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, shows hourly earnings for the age 16-to-24 group are up a whopping 9.5% from August a year ago. That’s the fastest clip since 2001. All the chatter about raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour is perhaps having its effect on the private sector. Also contributing to higher pay is the ongoing labor shortage in the service sector. Restaurants, hotels and other manual labor businesses all need more workers. This may be the best time to be a high school kid hungry for some extra bucks. College students are also licking their chops at an emerging perk—free tuition. Amazon and Walmart recently announced they’ll pay for frontline workers’ college costs. These are very encouraging signs. Parents can make it even sweeter. Here’s a strategy: For every dollar your child earns, match it with a Roth IRA contribution. By opening and funding Roth IRAs for your children, you set them up for success. You incentivize them to work hard, and also encourage them to become investors as they watch their accounts grow. The pandemic upset many people’s plans. But I’m optimistic about Gen Z and Generation Alpha—the group that apparently comes after Gen Z. Higher pay is here, and hopefully a smaller student-debt burden is on its way.
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