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If we can’t control our spending, the stuff we buy will never compensate for the stress we feel.

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Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"Joan, thanks for sharing your portfolio detail. It sounds like your thinking is similar to mine. But you've done a better job measuring performance against the index. My Bond ETF portfolio is less than a year old. Like you described, I also use BND for a core holding, but I decided to to mix it with BNDP when Vanguard announced it. So I hold 32% BND, 36% BNDP, and the32% balance is split between a couple targeted Bond ETFs to try and avoid correlation of returns across investments. So I use a total of four Bond ETFs in the portfolio. I don't mind saying that I have no idea if this is the right path to take, but I've been satisfied with the results."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

A Sunday Thought About Money

"Like a pair of pliers, or a CNC machine, money is no more than a tool. I frequently need to reset my priorities. Am I building a portfolio, or a home? Am I growing my influence, or the kingdom of God? What is the status of my accounts, or what is the status of my heart? Mark, thanks for the reminder to set aside the things of the moment, so I can focus on things that last."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Just the facts about Social Security

"We had unreduced early retirement at 55 with 30 years of service for just that reason. By 55 the physical worker’s bodies were worn out. We also had pretty liberal criteria for disability pensions even younger. That was a critical benefit for our unions."
- R Quinn
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"Yes, those income taxes, especially for the retirees strike me as crazy low."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"Mark, thanks, I really do appreciate your opinion."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Defining Enough

"Excellent article. I found a way to answer that question by watching my monthy and annual "flow" and adjusting as necessary. I am lucky enough to have some fairly large RMDs now, and my budget leaves me with something extra at the end of each month. I am finding that I have a new question. It is: "What can I now afford to give to the institutions that gave me the perspectives, values, education and skills I needed to succeed?" I am grateful, and the need to show that gratitude tugs at me. And I am not just thinking of my college and law school, but older and smaller entities, like my Catholic grammar and high school, local public library, church, not-for-profit community organizations and the like. I'll never be able to thank the individuals I would like to honor, since they are mostly all gone. But these formative entities soldier on with new students, participants and members like me, and I think they deserve a share of what I've earned."
- Martin McCue
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"As I understand it, there has been a large excess of natural diamonds for years. The price of diamonds was carefully controlled because one supplier dominated the market, and it was able to control that world supply, stockpiling diamonds to keep them off the market. With the availability of diamonds kept low, the market-clearing price of diamonds could be kept much higher than would be merited in a freely competitive market, and the profits to the dominant supplier would be maximized. The stranglehold of that single supplier has eroded, though not completely. Artificial diamonds also carried a stigma for a while, because there was a view that "if you really loved me, you'd buy me a real diamond regardless of the price." But that stigma has eroded, too. People seem finally to be recognizing that love shouldn't be measured by the price paid for the ring."
- Martin McCue
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you. I think you’ve captured exactly what many of us felt reading Money and Me. The financial wisdom was always there, but what shines through in the final pages is the person behind the words. My brother was not only a gifted writer, but also a genuinely kind and generous man. I’m grateful that you had the opportunity to know both sides of him."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"This has to be fixed by Congress, right? is that still an active institution in our country?"
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Celebrating the Win

"Hung, Sounds like the American dream is still alive. Good for you."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

Time to share our financial info with children?

"I can only speak for my own unique experience, but I totally disagree with those who want to keep their children in the dark. I was a singleton in a hard-working but very poor family in my first years. A formative experience was seeing an old truck repossessed, and the failure of a small family business. My parents never hid any of this reality from me, even at age 4 or 5. Life was tough, we would be frugal, but we would make it. Gradually my parents did climb out of their hole, and then each received modest inheritances, mostly in the form of stocks and some bonds. They had learned from their parents frugality, patience, faith, and hope. From the beginning, I was invited to review with them their investments, and understand their rationale for what actions they took, good or bad in retrospect. Because they made few expensive mistakes, and quickly understood that fees and costs matter, they got rich slowly. Meanwhile, I was absorbing their lessons. They gave me a few thousand to invest, which I did invest after considerable study. I learned more from my mistakes than my successes, but it was a cheap education. My parents gradually needed more and more care because of emphysema, COPD, and heart disease, and I arranged my life to be able to help, at the drop of a hat. I was the junior partner in the family firm, and I damn sure was going to do whatever was necessary. Ultimately, of course, they both died, and they left me a modest inheritance but far more valuable a philosophy of money and investing--Jonathan before Jonathan--and I have thrived ever since. Because they had shared and explained everything from the earliest days, I learned about thrift, the amazing and frightening power of compounding, and how to maintain a calmness of mind, whatever the market did in the short term. When my father died, I felt fully competent to deal with what he left me, and the results suggest I was right. I am forever grateful for the trust and confidence my parents put in me, from young childhood, and I believe I repaid that well over their lifetimes. My message: be frank with you children. In my family it was literally unthinkable that my mother or father would be in the dark about family finances, and naturally I gradually became the junior partner, so to speak, in the family firm."
- afwAZ
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"Joan, thanks for sharing your portfolio detail. It sounds like your thinking is similar to mine. But you've done a better job measuring performance against the index. My Bond ETF portfolio is less than a year old. Like you described, I also use BND for a core holding, but I decided to to mix it with BNDP when Vanguard announced it. So I hold 32% BND, 36% BNDP, and the32% balance is split between a couple targeted Bond ETFs to try and avoid correlation of returns across investments. So I use a total of four Bond ETFs in the portfolio. I don't mind saying that I have no idea if this is the right path to take, but I've been satisfied with the results."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

A Sunday Thought About Money

"Like a pair of pliers, or a CNC machine, money is no more than a tool. I frequently need to reset my priorities. Am I building a portfolio, or a home? Am I growing my influence, or the kingdom of God? What is the status of my accounts, or what is the status of my heart? Mark, thanks for the reminder to set aside the things of the moment, so I can focus on things that last."
- John Verlautz
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Just the facts about Social Security

"We had unreduced early retirement at 55 with 30 years of service for just that reason. By 55 the physical worker’s bodies were worn out. We also had pretty liberal criteria for disability pensions even younger. That was a critical benefit for our unions."
- R Quinn
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"Yes, those income taxes, especially for the retirees strike me as crazy low."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"Mark, thanks, I really do appreciate your opinion."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Defining Enough

"Excellent article. I found a way to answer that question by watching my monthy and annual "flow" and adjusting as necessary. I am lucky enough to have some fairly large RMDs now, and my budget leaves me with something extra at the end of each month. I am finding that I have a new question. It is: "What can I now afford to give to the institutions that gave me the perspectives, values, education and skills I needed to succeed?" I am grateful, and the need to show that gratitude tugs at me. And I am not just thinking of my college and law school, but older and smaller entities, like my Catholic grammar and high school, local public library, church, not-for-profit community organizations and the like. I'll never be able to thank the individuals I would like to honor, since they are mostly all gone. But these formative entities soldier on with new students, participants and members like me, and I think they deserve a share of what I've earned."
- Martin McCue
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"As I understand it, there has been a large excess of natural diamonds for years. The price of diamonds was carefully controlled because one supplier dominated the market, and it was able to control that world supply, stockpiling diamonds to keep them off the market. With the availability of diamonds kept low, the market-clearing price of diamonds could be kept much higher than would be merited in a freely competitive market, and the profits to the dominant supplier would be maximized. The stranglehold of that single supplier has eroded, though not completely. Artificial diamonds also carried a stigma for a while, because there was a view that "if you really loved me, you'd buy me a real diamond regardless of the price." But that stigma has eroded, too. People seem finally to be recognizing that love shouldn't be measured by the price paid for the ring."
- Martin McCue
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you. I think you’ve captured exactly what many of us felt reading Money and Me. The financial wisdom was always there, but what shines through in the final pages is the person behind the words. My brother was not only a gifted writer, but also a genuinely kind and generous man. I’m grateful that you had the opportunity to know both sides of him."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Truths

NO. 142: MUCH OF OUR financial success can be explained by luck—the family we're born into, the value that today’s economy puts on our talents, whether our bosses take a shine to us, whether the financial markets treat us well. The upshot: No matter how much success we’ve enjoyed, we should resist growing overconfident or being dismissive of others.

humans

NO. 4: A GRADUAL rise in our living standard brings great pleasure, while a reversal pains us deeply. The implication: We should manage our finances so our lifestyle improves over time. Suppose we save money by staying in motels today. If that means we can afford ritzier hotels down the road, today’s sacrifice could boost our long-term happiness.

act

ESTIMATE YOUR retirement income needs. Take your annual salary. Subtract how much you save each year and pay in Social Security payroll taxes. Also subtract your annual debt payments, including your mortgage—assuming these debts will be paid off by retirement. Result: You’ll know roughly how much you will need each year for a comfortable retirement.

Saving diligently

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Spotlight: Abuse

Forget the Check

THE HOLIDAY SEASON used to be a time when we’d write and mail more checks than usual. Some were gifts to family, while others were year-end charitable donations. But with the rise in mail theft and check washing, we’ve been on a campaign to limit the number of checks we write, plus we’ve almost eliminated the mailing of checks. Here are eight things we’ve done to reduce our exposure to check fraud:

We opened a secondary no-fee checking account and opted out of the overdraft protection.

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Lost Property

OUR COMMUNITY HAS a Facebook-like online forum called Nextdoor. I tend to ignore the posts, which usually involve things like items for sale and new restaurant openings. But a recent post caught my eye—because it was from the Montgomery County Recorder of Deeds.
The article said Pennsylvania’s Attorney General had initiated a lawsuit against a realty company for deceptive practices targeting elderly, low-income and minority homeowners. The realty company was offering a “Homeowner Benefit Program” that gives homeowners anywhere from $400 to $1,000 upfront to lock into a contract.

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Who Stole My Home?

YOU MIGHT RECALL my article warning about home title theft, where scammers try to claim ownership of your home. Since I wrote the article, the Federal Trade Commission has warned that one preventive measure, so-called title lock insurance, is bogus: It only alerts you to title fraud after the fraud has happened.
Thanks to a recent AARP article, there’s now greater awareness about home title fraud and ways to protect yourself. What can you do to prevent title fraud?

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Avoiding Bad Guys

MONEY MANAGERS Raj Rajaratnam and Joel Greenblatt share a number of similarities. They’re almost exactly the same age. Both received business degrees from the University of Pennsylvania, and both started well-known hedge funds. But the similarities end there.
During the 10 years that Greenblatt operated his fund, Gotham Capital, it delivered returns averaging 50% a year, versus 10% for the S&P 500. Thanks to his success, Greenblatt retired from full-time work in 1994 at age 37.

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Bad Guy on Line One

GOOD PARENTS WARN their children about predators who look to take advantage of them. By the same token, good adults should warn and safeguard their elderly parents, as well as the other seniors they care for.
We all use our electronics for accessing information. We sometimes forget the information highway is two-way, and nefarious people use those lines of communication to get to the vulnerable. And it isn’t just about hacking online accounts. Often,

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Anti-Social Behavior

A QUARTER OF ALL reported losses from fraud in 2021 originated on social media, according to the Federal Trade Commission, and those losses cost about $770 million.
Yes, social media is a popular way to keep in touch with family and friends, receive news and get information. According to Pew Research, 73% of people ages 50 to 64 used social media in 2021, as did 45% of those ages 65 and over. But using social media requires vigilance.

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Spotlight: Saha

Four or Less

A RECENT ARTICLE from Morningstar suggested that the 4% rule for sustainable retirement withdrawals should be revised downward to 3.3%. This lower rate, the researchers argued, is safer given today’s rich stock market valuations and low bond yields. The article also recommended being flexible with withdrawals, by taking larger amounts in good markets and smaller withdrawals during down periods. This strategy could provide more lifetime income than fixing a withdrawal amount in the first year and then automatically increasing that sum each year with inflation. I like simple rules of thumb, but I only use them as ballpark estimates. The old 4% rule provides a quick, back-of-the-envelope sense of our retirement readiness. For instance, if we divide 100 by that 4%, we get 25. The upshot: If we have savings equal to 25 times our average annual spending, or something in that range, we may have enough to quit the workforce. For younger folks, I’d bump up the multiplier in recognition of longer life expectancies. What if our retirement readiness passes this simple sniff-test? Now, it’s time for detailed calculations using individually tailored parameters. A ballpark estimate is not helpful at this stage. My unease with the 4% rule—and I’m not alone—isn't with the number’s accuracy. Rather, I’m uncomfortable with its widespread use as a one-size-fits-all withdrawal strategy. And, no, tweaking the recommended withdrawal rate up or down from a nice whole number to a decimal figure doesn’t necessarily make it more correct. Rather, it can simply create a stronger illusion of accuracy. “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler,” as Albert Einstein may have said. Withdrawal strategies in retirement needn't be too complicated. But a prescribed withdrawal rate—even with some adjustments here or there—strikes me as an over-simplified endeavor.
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Resolved: Learn Again

I DEVOTE A GOOD amount of time to learning, not because I worry about cognitive decline—though that’s a worthy reason—but because I enjoy sampling a host of subjects, everything from meditation to music theories. Before online courses became popular, my self-directed learning involved watching lecture DVDs. I later discovered many free online offerings from reputed universities, including Stanford, Harvard, Yale, MIT and Princeton. When the pandemic forced me to spend more time at home, I signed up for a five-course series on modern finance. It was a comprehensive program for folks pursuing a career in finance. Paid enrollees could earn college credits toward a master’s degree in finance. I didn’t need another degree, nor was I ready to cough up a few hundred dollars per course, so I was happy to choose the free option. The program started in the fall of 2020, with one course each for the next five quarters. The first two quarters covered the foundations of modern finance and the third covered financial accounting. New lectures were released each week, with assignments due the week after. I was thoroughly enjoying the rigorous curriculum. The pressure was manageable. I was happy with my progress—until the fourth course, the one on quantitative finance. Within a week or so, I realized that I should’ve taken the course prerequisites more seriously and brushed up on my undergraduate math. Unprepared and stressed out, I fell behind, struggled to catch up and finally threw in the towel. Dropping out felt like a shameful intellectual defeat. Fearing a repeat disappointment, I stopped taking online courses altogether. My learning paused for 2021’s entire second half, and I felt awful about it. Even before the new year began, I resolved to get past my embarrassment and resume learning. A quarterly course on the adaptive market hypothesis caught my eye. The class…
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Feelin’ Groovy

I’VE BEEN WORKING from home for nearly two months. Many friends and coworkers are tired of the lockdown. I seem to be an oddball: I feel happier and less stressed. I’m not oblivious to the reality of today’s pandemic. As I write this, my uncle abroad is facing a hard time getting urgent medical care. Millions of others across the globe are also suffering. Against such a gloomy backdrop, I feel almost guilty in seeing a positive side to the lockdown. Examples? For me, the biggest benefit has been the time and energy saved by not commuting. I also like being able to weave small personal chores in between office work. I can plan my hours better and get more done in a day. I’ve also been better able to manage my health. My weight resembles the growth chart of an inflation-protected Treasury bond fund. Occasional short-term fluctuations in either direction are common, but things creep slowly upward over time. Stuck at home, I figured I could devote extra time to better eating and fitness habits. Though I try to eat a balanced diet, with lots of vegetables, fruits and fish, I wasn’t consistent in my good eating habits. Now that there’s more time to prepare healthier and tastier meals, I have no excuses. I’ve been cooking every other day. Meanwhile, there’s no morning rush to get ready to leave for work. When the weather gods smile, I start my day with a walk. There’s an abundance of blooming trees and songbirds in our area. My cousin, who lives next door, joins me in the evening, when I take a second walk to help me unwind. The good eating and the exercise seem to be working. I feel healthier and more energetic. I’ll miss that sense of wellbeing when things…
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Affordable Mistakes

WHEN I SET OUT TO improve my financial knowledge, sites like HumbleDollar didn’t exist. Instead, I garnered insights from books, investment seminars and like-minded people. Still, my greatest lessons came from my own financial mistakes. I’ve made many, and I still occasionally stumble. A few missteps were costly and had lasting repercussions, but the rest were less damaging, especially considering the lessons I learned from them. Here are six of what I call my “affordable mistakes.” 1. Investing in individual stocks without research. After losing years of investment compounding by ignoring the stock market, I foolishly adopted an invest-now-research-later approach. Relying solely on company name and price history, I narrowed my buy list to a dozen or so public companies and then invested equal amounts in each. Among my selections were two familiar names. I knew about Eastman Kodak from my college days, when one of my hobbies was developing film. And I was familiar with Washington Mutual because the bank sponsored a spectacular annual firework display that I loved to watch. I naively assumed that these stocks, together with the others I chose, would be good long-term investments. They weren’t. Both Kodak and WaMu eventually failed, leaving me with no chance of recouping my investment. I figured that unless you enjoyed stock research (which I didn’t), had a strong desire to beat the market (which I didn’t), and could dedicate time to staying on top of company and industry news (which I couldn’t), it made no sense to favor individual stocks over low-cost, diversified stock funds. 2. Borrowing from my 401(k). In my mid-30s, when I was going through a financially challenging period, I found myself in need of immediate cash. My 401(k) plan offered a loan that seemed appealing. The paperwork was minimal, the funds would be available…
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Marginal Benefit

I'M A BIT EMBARRASSED to admit that, until I started toying with the idea of early retirement a few years ago, I was pretty ignorant about how Social Security worked. I didn’t even pay much attention to the FICA payroll taxes that were deducted from my paycheck. As I looked into it some more, the prospect of receiving lifelong monthly checks from the government came as a pleasant surprise. I started researching how much I might get. I learned that my retirement benefit depended primarily on two factors. First, the system would calculate a monthly benefit—called my primary insurance amount—based on my taxed Social Security earnings. The second factor would be when I decided to start benefits. I could claim Social Security as early as age 62, and take a permanent haircut on my benefits, or wait until as late as 70 to juice up my monthly payments. Based on my birth year, the system designated 67 as my normal retirement age. That’s when I would get 100% of my primary insurance amount—the benefit I’d earned by paying Social Security taxes. I was still unclear, though, exactly how my benefit would be calculated and whether early retirement might affect it. Should I plan to work longer to boost my monthly benefit? How much longer? Would my benefit grow substantially because of those extra years of toil? I’d already paid the maximum Social Security payroll taxes for 15 years, thanks to the steady paychecks from my software engineering job. In my naïve thinking, if 15 years of payroll taxes got my primary insurance amount to, say, $1,500 a month, then each additional working year would proportionately increase the monthly amount by another $100 or so. As with most things, the answer turned out to be more nuanced. To illustrate, imagine a…
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Fatal Attraction

HOW WOULD YOU FEEL about a stock market strategy that routinely invests more after prices go up and sells when prices drop? As someone who invests for the long haul, I’m skeptical—which is why the increasing popularity of leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) puzzles me. A leveraged ETF aims to amplify the daily return of its stated benchmark. The fund’s benchmark might be a widely followed stock or bond index, a particular market sector, a single industry or one country. These ETFs are easily identified by their names, which often include terms like 2x, 3x, bull and ultra. For instance, ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (symbol: SSO) seeks to return twice the daily performance of the S&P 500-stock index, while Direxion Daily MSCI India Bull 3X Shares (INDL) tries to triple the daily return of Indian stocks. Leverage is a double-edged sword that exaggerates both gains and losses—often costing investors dearly. Yet a wrongheaded narrative keeps attracting inexperienced investor to leveraged ETFs. Consider ProShares Ultra S&P 500, mentioned above. It lost almost 20% in the five years following its June 2006 launch, including dropping more than 80% from peak to trough during the 2007-09 bear market. In the same five-year period, a low-cost S&P 500 ETF would have gained a cumulative 15% with half the volatility. Wasn’t the ProShares ETF supposed to double the benchmark’s gain, by rising 30% over the five years, instead of losing 20%? This is the dangerous misconception about leveraged ETFs—and the reason they shouldn't be used as long-term investments. Instead, leveraged ETFs are tools for sophisticated day traders and swing traders. They’re meant to be held for a day or so and kept under close watch. When market timers are firmly convinced about the market’s immediate direction, they try to use leveraged ETFs to make a quick buck. Fund…
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