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Cash investments won’t lose money in the moment—but inflation and taxes almost guarantee they’ll lose money over time.

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What am I missing?

"I'm glad you're here, William. Thanks for this explanation."
- DAN SMITH
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One Good Call?

"urbie - that's a great answer and approach. My wife and I are in our second marriages. We have kids, but not together. We keep finances separate, but unlike you we do maintain a joint account for bill paying. We have wills and trusts to manage our future demise (I will likely be the first to croak) to take care of each other and our kids."
- Jeff Bond
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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"David, Dan, thank you for your kind comments. We are going! We booked a day at track and field and a women’s basketball game so far. Some of the preliminary soccer games are going to be played in our town. We got 8 tickets to take our whole family to a game. We are trying to decide what else to see. And do we want to pay big bucks for gymnastics? Much is already sold out. Chris"
- baldscreen
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Financial Planning

"Timothy Financial is another firm to consider."
- Mark Gardner
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AARP tax calculator changed to 2025

"2026 Update - While the AARP website tax calculator, as of today 4/14/2026, still has the 2025 tax calculator, the developer of that AARP software, Dinkytown, has recently posted their initial 2026 tax calculator to their website. I did note that 2006 calculator appears to not yet deduct the 2026 limited charitable contributions in their calculation of taxable income (amount is listed, it just does not currently deduct from the total). The current 2026 version does use the 2026 brackets/rates and accounts properly for the $6K senior deduction for each age 65+ taxpayer on the projected return. It's anyone's guess if there will be additional 2026 tax law changes so I will not fine tune my tax planning until late in 2026."
- William Perry
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Avoid the noise, buy the market and stay invested

"Congratulations, Alan! Your investing journey is a great example of how disciplined investing can lead you to 90% of your retirement goals."
- Mark Gardner
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Taxes Season 3

"Mark, thanks for helping those folks from the service employees union. Those simple $300 returns are a big reason why DIY software has become so popular. Of course, the DIY software companies lobby probably had something to do with Direct File being shut down. "
- DAN SMITH
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My sister’s will and what it taught me.

"Amen. Both of my wife's parents died intestate. Her sister was able to resolve issues with both of their estates for their home and assets. However, her father owned property in a rural county 100 miles away. My wife and her 6 siblings each owned a share of 42 acres in that county. One of her brothers agreed to give his share to my wife. We hired a local RE attorney to handle this. It became a tangled web because of their dying intestate. It took a considerable amount of time and expense for our attorney to resolve this, costing more than the value of the timber land she inherited. Another lesson about dying intestate."
- Jerry Pinkard
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Investment Versus Speculation

"Good question Andy. I have no idea."
- Jack Hannam
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Financial regrets about parenthood?

"Yes indeed. We look forward to spending as much as we can as long as we can on the grandchildren. My parents were unable and had no inclination to spend on us or our children even in modest ways, we are not going to repeat that."
- R Quinn
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Resist the Urge to Act

BEFORE WE GET into it, a brief word. We lost Jonathan last year, and those of us who followed his work felt it more than we perhaps expected.  He had a saying that I always liked - that there are really only twenty stories in personal finance, and the financial industry spends most of its time telling them on repeat in slightly different hats. He was right, of course. He usually was. It struck me that a fitting tribute might be to take his core principles and do something with them, not quote him at length, but wrestle with the ideas in our own words, from our own lives. I've chosen "Resist the Urge to Act," and had a go below. If the idea appeals to any readers posting on the forum, I'd love to see others pick a principle, whichever one speaks to you, and write about it in your own voice. No need to be an economist. Just be honest. I suspect Jonathan would have approved of that approach more than most. There's a strange truth lurking at the heart of personal finance that nobody tells you about, possibly because it would put a large number of people out of work. The more urgently you feel you ought to do something with your investments, the more damage you will probably do by doing it. I find this deeply satisfying, not because I'm wise, far from it, but because it seems my instinct to do very little was correct all along. Vindication, when it arrives, should be savored. Jonathan Clements spent decades writing about money for the Wall Street Journal before founding HumbleDollar, which if you're reading this you already know, and if you don't, welcome, you've somehow stumbled into excellent company by accident. One of his core messages, boiled down to its purest form, was this: The secret to successful investing is to be comprehensively, almost aggressively boring. He had a list of principles, and one of them was deceptively simple: Resist the Urge to Act. I have a suspicion he knew it was one of the hardest ones, which is perhaps why he saved it for near the end of his various lists. Telling people to do nothing runs headlong into every instinct the modern world has carefully cultivated in them. The financial news industry has a business model, and it is not, I would suggest, your long-term wealth they're hoping to help. Their holy grail is your attention span, and attention without action doesn't keep the lights on. So urgency is manufactured. Alarm is engineered. The moment a headline about Federal Reserve policy or market volatility lands on your phone screen, the correct and sophisticated response, according to Jonathan, is to put the phone face-down and go and make a cup of tea. This is not what the headline wants you to do. The headline wants you to feel that failure to react immediately constitutes negligence. It doesn't. The information has already been digested, debated, and priced in by people who got it considerably earlier than you did. Acting on it now isn't smart. It's like arriving late to a party that ended an hour ago and wondering why nobody's offering you a stiff drink. Jonathan was a firm believer in market efficiency, the rather humbling idea that you, me, and most professional fund managers with their impressive offices and Bloomberg terminals, cannot reliably outthink the combined judgment of millions of other investors. Once you genuinely accept this, something might shift for you. You'll probably stop checking your portfolio three times before lunch. Which matters more than it might sound, because there's a fairly direct relationship between how often you look at your balance and how likely you are to do something regrettable with it. He had a line I've shamelessly adopted as my own: Your portfolio is like a bar of soap, and the more you handle it, the smaller it gets. My wife Suzie heard me say this recently and pointed out that I've never shown this level of restraint with actual soap. She's not wrong. But then again, I liberate hotel soap. The other temptation Jonathan warned against was treating the market as a hobby. There's a certain thrill, I understand, in hunting for the next great stock, the overheard tip, the sector everyone's talking about. The feeling that you've spotted something the rest of us turkeys have missed is a powerful one. He was fairly blunt on this point. If you want that kind of excitement, go to the cinema. Go to a casino. These are perfectly respectable venues for the willing suspension of rational judgment. Your brokerage account is not. The urge to act, dressed up as diligence and research, is still the urge to act. The actual solution is somewhat anticlimactic. Broad index funds, bought automatically and regularly, regardless of what the television talking heads are shouting about. When the market drops and the headlines turn an alarming shade of red, the correct response, the disciplined, intelligent, sophisticated response, is to turn the television off, close the laptop, and take yourself for a walk. Jonathan was clear on this point: Doing nothing, at the right moment, is one of the harder things an investor can do. It only looks like laziness from the outside. From the inside, when every instinct is screaming at you to move, to switch, to sell, to “do something,” holding still takes genuine effort. I have found, in my own modest experience, that retirement makes this philosophy considerably easier to live by. Urgency has a way of evaporating when you no longer have somewhere to be. The news cycle hums along without me. The market does whatever it decides to do. And I go for my walk. By strange coincidence, the halfway point often coincides with a bar serving decent Guinness. I consider this a stroke of luck. It seems I was a follower of Jonathan's advice for many years before I stumbled upon his name and writing. There's something to be said for arriving at the right answer through a combination of temperament and mild indifference. I'm choosing to call it wisdom. This piece was never meant to be anything more than one person's attempt to retell one of Jonathan's principles in his own words, a tribute of sorts, filtered through lived experience rather than expertise. The voice is mine, for better or worse. The wisdom, unambiguously, was his. There are more principles still sitting there, waiting. Each of them deserves exactly this kind of treatment, personal, honest, and a little bit imperfect. So, who's next? Because if there are no takers I'll have a pretty big task ahead of me.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
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What am I missing?

"I'm glad you're here, William. Thanks for this explanation."
- DAN SMITH
Read more »

One Good Call?

"urbie - that's a great answer and approach. My wife and I are in our second marriages. We have kids, but not together. We keep finances separate, but unlike you we do maintain a joint account for bill paying. We have wills and trusts to manage our future demise (I will likely be the first to croak) to take care of each other and our kids."
- Jeff Bond
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"David, Dan, thank you for your kind comments. We are going! We booked a day at track and field and a women’s basketball game so far. Some of the preliminary soccer games are going to be played in our town. We got 8 tickets to take our whole family to a game. We are trying to decide what else to see. And do we want to pay big bucks for gymnastics? Much is already sold out. Chris"
- baldscreen
Read more »

Financial Planning

"Timothy Financial is another firm to consider."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

AARP tax calculator changed to 2025

"2026 Update - While the AARP website tax calculator, as of today 4/14/2026, still has the 2025 tax calculator, the developer of that AARP software, Dinkytown, has recently posted their initial 2026 tax calculator to their website. I did note that 2006 calculator appears to not yet deduct the 2026 limited charitable contributions in their calculation of taxable income (amount is listed, it just does not currently deduct from the total). The current 2026 version does use the 2026 brackets/rates and accounts properly for the $6K senior deduction for each age 65+ taxpayer on the projected return. It's anyone's guess if there will be additional 2026 tax law changes so I will not fine tune my tax planning until late in 2026."
- William Perry
Read more »

Avoid the noise, buy the market and stay invested

"Congratulations, Alan! Your investing journey is a great example of how disciplined investing can lead you to 90% of your retirement goals."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

Taxes Season 3

"Mark, thanks for helping those folks from the service employees union. Those simple $300 returns are a big reason why DIY software has become so popular. Of course, the DIY software companies lobby probably had something to do with Direct File being shut down. "
- DAN SMITH
Read more »

My sister’s will and what it taught me.

"Amen. Both of my wife's parents died intestate. Her sister was able to resolve issues with both of their estates for their home and assets. However, her father owned property in a rural county 100 miles away. My wife and her 6 siblings each owned a share of 42 acres in that county. One of her brothers agreed to give his share to my wife. We hired a local RE attorney to handle this. It became a tangled web because of their dying intestate. It took a considerable amount of time and expense for our attorney to resolve this, costing more than the value of the timber land she inherited. Another lesson about dying intestate."
- Jerry Pinkard
Read more »

Investment Versus Speculation

"Good question Andy. I have no idea."
- Jack Hannam
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 64: AS WE GROW wealthier, we should seize the chance to save on insurance—by raising deductibles, lengthening elimination periods and perhaps dropping some policies entirely.

humans

NO. 71: WE FIND strength in faith. Research has found that, on average, folks who are religious report greater happiness. This finding is especially strong among those with lower incomes or who live in less prosperous nations. Perhaps religion helps us to focus less on our own wants and struggles, and more on helping others and leading a life of purpose.

Truths

NO. 11: WE’RE BAD at math and we don’t carry around financial calculators, so we guess—and our guesses usually aren’t very good. We underestimate how much loans will cost us. We overestimate the likelihood of winning with long-shot gambles like lottery tickets and penny stocks. We underestimate the benefits of compounding.

think

CONFLICTS of interest. It’s hard to get unbiased financial advice. Insurance agents collect bigger commissions if we buy cash-value instead of term life insurance. Brokers make more if we trade frequently and buy high-commission products. Advisors who charge a percent of assets earn more if we keep money in our portfolios, rather than paying down debt.

Best of Jonathan Clements

Manifesto

NO. 64: AS WE GROW wealthier, we should seize the chance to save on insurance—by raising deductibles, lengthening elimination periods and perhaps dropping some policies entirely.

Spotlight: In Retirement

Sector Fund by Stealth

I’VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I’ve moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent.
I’m retired. I don’t need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don’t need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation;

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Breaking even? Why should anyone care? I don’t

We have discussed many times when to start Social Security and pretty much concluded the decision is personal and need based. I don’t have a problem with any of that, but what bugs me is concern over breaking even considering amount received and years of benefits.
It seems to me the monthly benefit, the income when needed most is all that matters. Since I once again find myself in the minority, I asked a neutral party,

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Australian superannuation – a local perspective

Around the world there are a vast number of ways that countries seek to provide financial support to its retirees. I certainly won’t profess to being an expert in any, including my home of Australia, but I thought it might be interesting to give some insight into how our superannuation scheme works, along with some of my thoughts.
Back in 1974, around 32% of Australians had access to retirement funds via a range of pension schemes.

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Does Social Security work?

I say it does, but that does not stop it from being attacked. The words Ponzi Scheme are being thrown about. The fact it is underfunded is being used as a argument that it doesn’t work. Some in government are calling for it to be replaced with private accounts.  I read one official say there is plenty of money to pay all the benefits to those now collecting, but we can’t continue. Well, that’s not true on either point.

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Retirement as you like it

Here I sit on my deck, the blue sky is cloudless. It is 74 degrees, no wind and quiet except for the birds making their views known. My view of anything beyond 50 feet is blocked by thickly leaved trees.  
Between writing, I read commentary about tariffs, trade, economies on Project-Syndicate, a daily updated compilation of articles from scores of international writers. I’m also reading about the Salem witch trials and Ben Franklin’s rise to fame and testimony before Parliament about taxing the colonies –

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Don’t worry, be happy: tripping through the go-go years

Glancing at the clock on the sunroom wall, I noticed it was 10:23, and the postman had just dropped a parcel at the door. I thought about going to investigate this mystery delivery but decided the second coffee was much more appealing. Anyway, my seat was comfy, the sun was kissing my skin and I didn’t have anything pressing to do until playing tennis at one o’clock this afternoon. Plenty of time to make a light breakfast,

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Spotlight: Retzke

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

"U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era The S&P 500 has never been this expensive, or more concentrated in fewer companies" - WSJ 9/1/2025 Edited 9/2/2025 per Morningstar:   Morningstar US Market Index +10.90%  since June 1, 2025!  Tech stocks +16.1% over the same period. == Summary 200 Day Simple Moving Average: As of today (September 1, 2025), SPX index 200-day simple moving average is 5959.47, with the most recent change of +2.32 (+0.04%) on August 29, 2025. Over the past year, SPX index 200-day SMA has increased by +837.72 (+16.36%). SPX index 200-day SMA is now at all-time high. Furthermore, all of the components of Faber’s ‘Ivy-5’ portfolio are above their 10-month Simple Moving Average.    
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RMDs Can Improve Your Portfolio

Christine Benz at Morningstar has published an update to the article. I think this is one of the better summaries on the internet. It provides the steps and options available when determining an RMD. She lists the “key steps to take to improve your portfolio at the same time you’re meeting your obligations with the IRS.” She also discusses penalties for non-compliance and approaches to pruning and asset re-allocation. Using Morningstar Style Box and sector exposure is suggested as a tool, but for those with a variety of index funds this might not be essential. There is a section about what to do with the proceeds from that RMD, as well as the benefits of QCD charitable contributions. https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/yes-rmds-can-improve-your-portfolio  
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Taking stock

2025 was a stellar year for investors. “The S&P 500 finished the year with an 18% gain, achieving a ‘three-peat’ of double digit annual returns.” Investors who didn’t bail were rewarded. We have a larger cash/bond allocation, about 55% stocks. The stocks do the heavy lifting while the cash/bonds provides some drag, but we are thoughtful about where we park it. The conventional thinking is that idle money is inefficient. It does not compound. But we like the flexibility cash provides. It can be a buffer. For example, we made a lifestyle change in 2022. We permanently relocated, selling a condo and a RV, lived in a hotel for a month, and purchased a house. This was so I could get proper medical treatment. Over the next two years there were many hospital stays and unusual medical bills, too, totaling about $2 million, although insurance covered most of that. At the time I wasn’t certain how to make this work. I looked at the funds available and came to the realization that this is why we had saved for many years. I decided to pull funds from a Roth IRA so as to avoid a tax bite. The original “plan” was to draw from Roths after the traditional IRAs. But health factors intervened. As it turned out, the financial gyrations were easier to manage than I had anticipated. Thanks to recent market returns, all of the funds I pulled for this and for RMDs have been replenished. That was unexpected. We continue to live debt free, too. Today, there are short- and ultra-short bond funds available that pay 4.0%. This won’t grow a nest egg, but it will maintain it. It may not beat inflation either. But it does provide a buffer. What could have been a financial panic situation…
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Social Security Personal Update

There have been several posts and commentary in recent months about potential changes to social security, the consequences of the removal of the Windfall Elimination Provision, anticipated issues because of the President and DOGE, etc. I posted on May 21 that my spouse was going to schedule an appointment with the nearby social security office and file. (There are 14 in this state, and our area population is about 1.2 million). Here is how it went. 1. Wait times on the phone can be long, but the Social Security (SS) office will schedule a call-back. G used that service. 2. She was able to schedule an appointment about 5 business days in the future. 3. She did some preliminary work on the SS website and began the registration process there. 4. She brought documents with her, including two government issued photo IDs and the checking account so she could schedule ACH (automatic monthly deposit). 5. She changed her Medicare payment from ACH withdrawal from a checking account to debit from her SS monthly payment. 6. She completed the necessary documents for a spousal benefit. One issue was she didn’t have a “certified” marriage license with her. Copies will not do. She contacted the County office in which we were married and the necessary document was Fedexed (at cost to us). 7. She decided to back-file to November 2024. This resulted in a significant lump-sum amount as a one-time payment. 8. She selected her percentage automatic withholding for IRS federal tax payment. We had pre-discussed this. There are several options, ranging from 7% to 22% withholding. 9. She switched from monthly Medicare ACH withdrawal from checking to debit the SS benefit. So, how did it turn out? 1. The online calculator we had used when discussing when to file was very…
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Tweaking the 4% Rule

On April 25 Morningstar published an article "Retirees: Here’s How to Tweak the 4% Rule to Protect Your Nest Egg".  It includes a link to their Report "State of Retirement Income 2024".  The report requires an email address. With recent stock gyrations I thought that their most recent look at withdrawals and retirement accounts might be helpful. Here are a few points made in the article: "Morningstar researchers have investigated and identified their latest starting safe withdrawal rate. Here’s a hint: it’s slightly lower than the previous year. " About saving for retirement, "it’s pretty straightforward as long as you start early and you’re consistent about it. But when it comes to taking your retirement portfolio and figuring out how to turn that into a paycheck for yourself, that gets much more complicated." There’s sort of a balance. You want to make sure that you’re spending enough so that you can enjoy your retirement and enjoy hobbies and travel, that kind of thing, but not spend too aggressively so that you might have to cut back later in life. "A lot of people actually end up underspending." Morningstar states that their approach is different. "We decided that instead of looking at past data, we would do something more forward-looking, using market estimates for possible future returns." Looking at the past 15 years  Morningstar says the market returns were "actually the best 15-year period for stocks that we’ve seen going back to 1970." Morningstar has reduced their return assumptions for stocks and bonds. Morningstar's analysis looks at 900 outcomes using a base case of 3.7% and "various flexible or dynamic withdrawal strategies."  These alternatives "can often lift the starting withdrawal rate." Here's a link to the article: https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/retirees-heres-how-tweak-4-rule-protect-your-nest-egg  
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May 2025 Moving Averages

As a calming influence, here’s the latest about moving averages. The S&P 500 closed May with a monthly gain of 6.2%, the largest since November 2023.   However, Morningstar published an article today "Has the Stock Market Reached Peak Optimism on Tariffs? - Strategists say equities have already priced in the good news on tariffs as the trade war grinds on." I’ll periodically post if I become aware of changes of merit. [Currently posting an update via comments at the end of the month]. As of today (June 3, 2025), SPX index 200-day simple moving average is 5787.75, with the most recent change of +2.51 (+0.04%) on June 2, 2025. Over the past year, SPX index 200-day SMA has increased by +1009.50 (+21.13%). SPX index 200-day SMA is now at all-time high. SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) for Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index ETF, Vanguard FTSE All World Ex-US ETF and the iShares 7-10 year Treasury Bond ETF each indicate that one should be invested at this time. Recently, the 10- and 12-month simple moving averages for the S&P indicated “cash” but after three months this shifted to “be invested”.  I don’t use these as sell indicators because I see the moving averages as one of several barometers for investor sentiment.  They make it easier for me to comprehend some of the positions taken at the HD and other forums. I’m not making any kind of recommendation.  As usual this is “Caveat Emptor”. Readers should be aware that I don’t jump in and out of the markets and I keep busy with other things so as to avoid the daily noise. I suggest we each consider our investing approach and tolerances. I’m a “buy and hold” investor of ETFs and individual stocks.  I judge the merit of individual stocks by the products and management of the companies involved.  I…
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