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Financial Planning

"Are there any advice-only financial advisors who do not require assets to be transferred to a custodian of their choice and allow assets to remain where they are? If so, then how do they get visibility into the client’s portfolio?"
- Sunil Sharma
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

The Solitaire Solution

"Mark, here's a link to the Monte Carlo calculator, in case anyone is interested; https://ficalc.app/"
- Dan Smith
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"I too went through a bit of this with a claim I filed for a parent. There seems to be some pain in the initial process of qualifying- usually getting agreement that a certain # of assistance with daily living needs have been met. You can usually file an appeal with the insurance company, and if you still feel the claimant should be getting paid, you can file a complaint with the state insurance board that oversees LTC providers. I did have to go thru an appeal process with my parent's claim, which ended up working. Once the claim was approved, it was only subject to an annual review."
- Bill C
Read more »

Still Teaching

"Mark, an expanded conversation on the subject could be very helpful to people."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

The S Word

SOCIALISM. IT'S A WORD that can make people on the far left swoon, as they imagine an egalitarian utopia, even while inciting those on the far right to mumble protective oaths like a medieval citizen seeing a sign of the devil. It’s also a word that Google Trends reports has had a surge in search-related interest since last December. As competing visions of how to protect and enhance the American economic system vie for political popularity, the word is used to both support and condemn proposals. Problem is, it’s been stretched, pulled, interpreted and manhandled so much that two people debating the merits of socialism may not even be discussing the same thing. That’s not good if our goal is calm, cool deliberation, rather than emotional, knee-jerk confrontation. Let’s take a step back and revisit some basic economic concepts. Economics is the study of how we make choices. Economic systems are defined by who gets to make those choices. In their purest form, there are three such systems: Free market economy. Individuals, most notably buyers and sellers, make the decisions. They negotiate price and quality. Life is improved, famously, by the “invisible hand” of the competitive market. Its advantage is that it allows maximum freedom, sets an immediate, rational value to things, and inspires capital investment and innovation. The downside is that it’s predicated on a delicate balance of power between buyers and sellers, which—if thrown off—can subvert the system, as happens when someone has a monopoly. In addition, the system is prone to making more short-term, individual-benefitting decisions, rather than long-term choices that might help us collectively, such as reducing pollution or improving mass transportation. Command economy. In this model, decisions are made by those with political power. This is the category into which socialism falls. But the category also includes regulation by republican forms of government, monarchies and dictatorships. Big picture decisions can be made that have long-term advantages, such as constructing public schools to educate future citizens. If done well, it’s also possible to achieve economies of scale—as happens with public utilities. The downside: Governments are notorious for not doing things well, quickly or without waste. Traditional economy. This is the sleeper one—but, ironically, it has the most decision-makers, because the group consists of all our ancestors and their continuing influence. Why is beef off the menu for one religion and pork off the menu for others? Why are many stores closed on Sunday, or clam chowder red in some parts of the country and white in others, or some clothes just for one gender? These are the cumulative effects of cultural decision-making over time, and we often roll with them. The advantage of this system is that it gives people a framework to work within. It offers the comfort and identity that comes with being part of a group. The downside: Traditional decisions can be the hardest to change, even when they have become antiquated and counterproductive. Which system do we have? What’s the best system? The first question is simple to answer, because it is true for every system ever used: We are a mixed system, predominantly free market, but with elements of the others. Go to a grocery store. The owner decides what to sell and what price he wants to charge, though—aware of the importance of culture—he’ll take into account local area favorites. As customers, our choice is limited by the grocery store’s selection—but we always have the choice to go to another grocery store. We can be fairly confident the food sold is of a minimum health standard set by the government, and we may pay for our purchase with government assistance, because we are elderly, a veteran or poor. In other words, it’s mostly free market, but with aspects of both a command and traditional economy. We can debate what the best balance is between the three. But it’s counterproductive to engage in demonizing and name-calling, and we shouldn’t irrationally condemn any of the historic and vital aspects of what’s become the world’s greatest economy. People on the left have no doubt benefited from wealth earned by entrepreneurs. People on the right have had their lives enhanced, and possibly saved, by government safety standards. And we all love national holidays. Jim Wasserman is a former business litigation attorney who taught economics and humanities for 20 years. His previous articles were Applying PressureFive MistakesSpoonful of Advice and Under the Influence. Jim’s book series on teaching behavioral economics and media literacy,  Media, Marketing, and Me, is being published in 2019. Jim lives in Granada, Spain, with his wife and fellow HumbleDollar contributor, Jiab. Together, they write a blog on retirement, finance and living abroad at YourThirdLife.com. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"Let’s not get carried away. A paper and pencil will do fine."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"Well, inaction has consequences, does it not? If you don't save, you don't have money to spend. It's called self-reliance. Kind of an American thing."
- Bruce Keller
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"We are invested in various types of REIT as an inflation buffer but because of the taxation issues we put them in our Roth accounts."
- achnk53
Read more »

What Addiction Couldn’t Take: My Sister’s Story

"Thank you Sherry for sharing this and for your willingness to help others through your own experience. One of the things I have learned from writing this article is just how many families have been affected by addiction and how often they carry that burden in silence. I appreciate your explanation of Al-Anon and the reminder that addiction affects not only the person struggling, but also those who love them. Your words about finding peace, setting boundaries, and not losing yourself are powerful. Thank you for taking the time to share this resource and for offering hope to those who may still be walking this difficult road."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Leverage

"Thanks for your comment. Learning to listen better to my inner voice has been essential to retirement. As "experts" frequently offer seemingly contradictory guidance."
- Catherine
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Financial Planning

"Are there any advice-only financial advisors who do not require assets to be transferred to a custodian of their choice and allow assets to remain where they are? If so, then how do they get visibility into the client’s portfolio?"
- Sunil Sharma
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

The Solitaire Solution

"Mark, here's a link to the Monte Carlo calculator, in case anyone is interested; https://ficalc.app/"
- Dan Smith
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"I too went through a bit of this with a claim I filed for a parent. There seems to be some pain in the initial process of qualifying- usually getting agreement that a certain # of assistance with daily living needs have been met. You can usually file an appeal with the insurance company, and if you still feel the claimant should be getting paid, you can file a complaint with the state insurance board that oversees LTC providers. I did have to go thru an appeal process with my parent's claim, which ended up working. Once the claim was approved, it was only subject to an annual review."
- Bill C
Read more »

Still Teaching

"Mark, an expanded conversation on the subject could be very helpful to people."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

The S Word

SOCIALISM. IT'S A WORD that can make people on the far left swoon, as they imagine an egalitarian utopia, even while inciting those on the far right to mumble protective oaths like a medieval citizen seeing a sign of the devil. It’s also a word that Google Trends reports has had a surge in search-related interest since last December. As competing visions of how to protect and enhance the American economic system vie for political popularity, the word is used to both support and condemn proposals. Problem is, it’s been stretched, pulled, interpreted and manhandled so much that two people debating the merits of socialism may not even be discussing the same thing. That’s not good if our goal is calm, cool deliberation, rather than emotional, knee-jerk confrontation. Let’s take a step back and revisit some basic economic concepts. Economics is the study of how we make choices. Economic systems are defined by who gets to make those choices. In their purest form, there are three such systems: Free market economy. Individuals, most notably buyers and sellers, make the decisions. They negotiate price and quality. Life is improved, famously, by the “invisible hand” of the competitive market. Its advantage is that it allows maximum freedom, sets an immediate, rational value to things, and inspires capital investment and innovation. The downside is that it’s predicated on a delicate balance of power between buyers and sellers, which—if thrown off—can subvert the system, as happens when someone has a monopoly. In addition, the system is prone to making more short-term, individual-benefitting decisions, rather than long-term choices that might help us collectively, such as reducing pollution or improving mass transportation. Command economy. In this model, decisions are made by those with political power. This is the category into which socialism falls. But the category also includes regulation by republican forms of government, monarchies and dictatorships. Big picture decisions can be made that have long-term advantages, such as constructing public schools to educate future citizens. If done well, it’s also possible to achieve economies of scale—as happens with public utilities. The downside: Governments are notorious for not doing things well, quickly or without waste. Traditional economy. This is the sleeper one—but, ironically, it has the most decision-makers, because the group consists of all our ancestors and their continuing influence. Why is beef off the menu for one religion and pork off the menu for others? Why are many stores closed on Sunday, or clam chowder red in some parts of the country and white in others, or some clothes just for one gender? These are the cumulative effects of cultural decision-making over time, and we often roll with them. The advantage of this system is that it gives people a framework to work within. It offers the comfort and identity that comes with being part of a group. The downside: Traditional decisions can be the hardest to change, even when they have become antiquated and counterproductive. Which system do we have? What’s the best system? The first question is simple to answer, because it is true for every system ever used: We are a mixed system, predominantly free market, but with elements of the others. Go to a grocery store. The owner decides what to sell and what price he wants to charge, though—aware of the importance of culture—he’ll take into account local area favorites. As customers, our choice is limited by the grocery store’s selection—but we always have the choice to go to another grocery store. We can be fairly confident the food sold is of a minimum health standard set by the government, and we may pay for our purchase with government assistance, because we are elderly, a veteran or poor. In other words, it’s mostly free market, but with aspects of both a command and traditional economy. We can debate what the best balance is between the three. But it’s counterproductive to engage in demonizing and name-calling, and we shouldn’t irrationally condemn any of the historic and vital aspects of what’s become the world’s greatest economy. People on the left have no doubt benefited from wealth earned by entrepreneurs. People on the right have had their lives enhanced, and possibly saved, by government safety standards. And we all love national holidays. Jim Wasserman is a former business litigation attorney who taught economics and humanities for 20 years. His previous articles were Applying PressureFive MistakesSpoonful of Advice and Under the Influence. Jim’s book series on teaching behavioral economics and media literacy,  Media, Marketing, and Me, is being published in 2019. Jim lives in Granada, Spain, with his wife and fellow HumbleDollar contributor, Jiab. Together, they write a blog on retirement, finance and living abroad at YourThirdLife.com. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"Let’s not get carried away. A paper and pencil will do fine."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"Well, inaction has consequences, does it not? If you don't save, you don't have money to spend. It's called self-reliance. Kind of an American thing."
- Bruce Keller
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Manifesto

NO. 65: IF WE CAN easily afford to cover a financial loss out of pocket, we shouldn’t pay an insurance company to do so. An auto policy is a great idea—but one with low deductibles isn’t.

think

MONTE CARLO analysis. Suppose you wrote down all annual historical stock market returns on index cards and randomly selected 30 cards—to get a hypothetical 30-year return—and did so 10,000 times. You’d have a sense of the range of possible 30-year returns and their likelihood. To see Monte Carlo analysis in action, try playing with Fi Calc's calculator.

act

RECAST YOUR mortgage. Have you been paying extra principal? If you’d like to lower your monthly payments, look into recasting your mortgage, which will likely involve a processing fee and a onetime extra-principal payment of $5,000 or $10,000. Your loan’s term and interest rate will stay the same, but it’ll be re-amortized to reflect your reduced principal.

Truths

NO. 64: NOBODY should be all stocks or all bonds. If you’re 100% stocks, you can reduce volatility by shifting 10% of your portfolio into bonds—with little impact on returns. The reason: Adding bonds allows you to pick up a rebalancing bonus. Meanwhile, 100% bond investors can boost returns, without a lot of added volatility, by moving maybe 25% to stocks.

Big ideas

Manifesto

NO. 65: IF WE CAN easily afford to cover a financial loss out of pocket, we shouldn’t pay an insurance company to do so. An auto policy is a great idea—but one with low deductibles isn’t.

Spotlight: Spending

A Grievance Most Fowl: When Golf Ate My Lunch.

I have a grievance this morning. Strange as it may seem this involves a chicken and bacon burger, one of my favourite restaurants, the global market economy and golf. At first glance they seem odd bedfellows don’t you think?
Yesterday afternoon I was feeling peckish and decided to indulge myself with a chicken burger. Whilst about to order the offending item I was alarmed to discover the price had increased by 125% in a matter of a week.

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Ah, nuts! I just don’t care about my spending any longer.

Connie and I were discussing a purchase. “That’s expensive,” she said.  I finally said, “I don’t care what they cost.” A moment of silence. “What happened to you that you don’t care what something cost?” she said. I thought a moment and then said, “I’m old.”
Actually that’s true. Within reason, I no longer care. I don’t look at prices in the supermarket- but I do load digital coupons on my phone. It’s also true I am old.

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Dreams I Had

When you were in your 20s and 30s, what did you dream of doing—and why weren’t those dreams realized? Here are four of the daydreams I had, but which remained just that:
Buy a sports car and drive across the country. This one got nixed by a host of factors—not enough vacation time, lack of money, the arrival of my first child at age 25. But truth be told, what seemed like a fun adventure slowly lost its allure,

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Have you seen your money lately? 

I just realized the only time I see my money is when I withdraw from an ATM. Ye gads, my wealth accumulated over 70 years is all in cyberspace.
I am at the mercy of computer systems and the folks who run them – and maybe someone in a tiny village in Mongolia. Everything hinges on a programing language which are all Greek to me. 
Even my last ATM attempt didn’t go well. There is only one branch of my bank on the Cape.

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Oh Dear, the Accidental Wedding Downgrade

While attending a recent wedding, something rare happened to me—an event so unique, I’d say it hasn’t occurred in at least thirty years.
My main task before the wedding, anticipating significant spending, was to transfer extra funds to my debit card. Understandably, or so I thought, I forgot. My wife, Suzie, disagreed with my assessment, suggesting I was simply a bit “daft.” The result of this oversight? I was extremely intentional with my spending throughout the three-day event.

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Mr. Quinn would be nervous. Would you be?

Towards the bottom of Mr. Quinn’s lengthy thread on spreadsheets and budgets I mentioned that I expect to spend a bit under 1% of my portfolio this year. Dick said that he would feel nervous in that situation. I am not currently feeling nervous, but since that percentage will increase over time, maybe I should be. I thought I would ask my fellow contributors what they thought.
Some background: I agree with Dick in seeing my income as just Social Security,

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Spotlight: Flack

No I for Me

OVER THE PAST FEW months, we’ve been inundated with articles touting Series I savings bonds and their 7.12% yield. More than a few HumbleDollarers have written about them, including here, here, here and here. It’s gotten so bad that, if I hear one more mention of Series I bonds, I’m going to scream. Sure, at first glance, 7% sounds enticing. But after a detailed review, it all sounds like a marketing pitch worthy of Uncle Ron Popeil rather than Uncle Sam. Series I savings bonds purchased before May 1 are guaranteed to yield 7% for the first six months. But after that, they reset to a combination of a fixed rate, which applies for the 30-year life of the bond, and the semiannual inflation rate. The fixed rate is 0% for the current offering period, so—if you hold the bonds for 30 years—you’ll merely keep up with inflation. Annual purchases of Series I bonds are limited to $10,000 (plus up to an additional $5,000 if you use a federal tax refund to make a purchase). Since you can’t buy savings bonds through your brokerage account, you have to create a separate financial account for your investment—or two if you want to “max out” this proposition by including your spouse. And oh, by the way, if you die prior to collecting, make sure your heirs know about your latest investment scheme. Since one of the benefits of Series I bonds is that no interest is paid and therefore no taxes are owed until you redeem them, there’s no 1099 to alert your heirs to their windfall. Think you’re too savvy to let that happen? Well, there’s $29 billion in paper savings bonds that have matured but which the owners haven’t bothered to cash in. We may live in a digital age, but…
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Stocks and Steaks

I WAS OFFERED a “free retirement review” by Carlson Financial a year ago. The review would—among other things—"help me answer the five biggest questions I have about retirement.” I didn’t realize I had only five questions. Still, I decided a financial review might be in order. I then forwarded an uncomfortable amount of personal information, financial statements and tax returns to a man I’d never met. Scott seemed like a nice enough guy, but hey, “let’s be careful out there.” When we met, Scott provided a general review of my finances. While it was quite evident that he didn’t want to give away anything for free, he mentioned that I needed to “Rothify” a fair amount of my 401(k) before required minimum distributions increased my income in a few years. He also mentioned that, as my taxable account contained a fair number of individual stocks with a fair amount of unrealized capital gains, he was more interested in managing my 401(k). But given that my 401(k) was invested in low-cost index funds, the feeling wasn’t mutual. Scott sent me a follow-up email, asking if I was interested in him managing my portfolio for an unmentioned fee. The fee was mentioned at the earlier meeting, but I don’t remember the exact number. I’m thinking it was around 0.75% of assets. I didn’t reply to Scott’s email, which wasn’t cool. I should have, but then waited too long, and then every day that went by it became that much harder until… I felt I’d waited too long and that it was now too late. Just recently, I received an email from Carl Carlson, the eponymous CEO and founder, offering me an invitation to a “MUST-ATTEND LIVE EVENT” that would touch on “How The World Affairs Affect Your Financial Affairs!” I wasn’t sure if I should take…
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Off the Spectrum

LET’S START WITH TWO definitions: Specʹtrum, n. a trade name of Charter Communications used to market avaricious cable television, internet, telephone and wireless services.   Vig’or•ish, n.[via Yid., from R. výigryš, lit., gain, winnings.] interest owed a loan shark in consideration for credit. Abbrev: vig. I bought a home a few months back and, besides trying to meet the neighbors, I had the pleasure of trying to arrange internet service. "Just go with Google Fiber," you say. Well, sorry, I’m not going to bow down before the overlord of the digital age and assimilate. Well, that, plus Spectrum internet is $40 cheaper. I signed up for $29.99 a month and promptly went to the nearby Spectrum store to pick up my free gear. I was given a modem and a wi-fi router. It was all quite seamless—as it turns out, too seamless. I hooked up everything at home and, of course, despite what I was informed over the phone repeatedly, I needed to schedule a tech to come out to the house. A few days later, after the tech did his magic, my house was filled with wi-fi. Everything was copacetic until I noticed Spectrum was suddenly charging me $5 a month for "wi-fi service." After a 30-minute "chat" with customer service, I learned that the "free" wi-fi router I’d received was deemed a mistake and I now had two options: pay the monthly $5 "wi-fi service" fee and keep the Spectrum wi-fi router or break the insidious cycle and buy my own router. It all reminded me of an old episode of The Rockford Files titled "Dirty Money, Black Light" where the eponymous private investigator is warned by Electric Larry, his loan shark, that, "As long as I get the vig, you keep the nut." After a little research, I realized that the wi-fi router that…
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Artfully Dodged

I HAD THE OPPORTUNITY to view Gustav Klimt’s most famous work of art, The Kiss, while visiting Vienna a few years back. It depicts a couple locked in an intimate embrace. It’s an oil painting with a significant amount of gold leaf—quite distinctive. A few weeks later, I had an opportunity to buy a Klimt. I was in a gallery in Salzburg and came across a drawing of his which was titled Stehender Rückenakt - 1913. I can’t remember the exact price. But since I didn’t buy it, it most likely cost a little more than I thought it was worth—or more than I currently had in my wallet. Still, I’ve always wondered what it would look like in both my living room and my portfolio. This pleasant memory all came back to me recently when a friend emailed me a link offering me a second chance to add artwork to my portfolio. I must admit I was a little leery when I first clicked on it and the newly opened web page allowed me “to skip the waitlist!” It announced that I was now “invited to join an exclusive community investing in blue-chip art.” The link also informed me that Masterworks is a company that buys multi-million dollar works of art, creates a Delaware limited liability company to own each one and sells shares in that company to the public. It resells the art a few years later, presumably at a higher price, and then disburses the proceeds to shareholders. Masterworks enables the fractional ownership of art—basically art for the little people. I accepted the offer and opened an account. Before I could start investing, I needed to make an appointment with Masterworks’ registered financial advisor so he could learn more about me and answer any questions I might have.…
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Picking Problems

I RECENTLY READ an interesting article about why you shouldn’t pick individual stocks. The author mentioned the classic reason: “Since most people (even the professionals) can’t beat the index, you shouldn’t bother trying.” He also mentioned another reason: “The existential dilemma of doing so… how do you know if you are good at picking individual stocks?” The author goes on to mention that, since luck plays such a significant factor in stock-picking, it could take a very long time to determine if you’re good or just lucky and, even then, you may never really know. While these are both good reasons not to invest in individual stocks, it strikes me there are other reasons—nine of them, to be precise. 1. I’ve always been concerned that, when stock-pickers compare their results with an index, they may not know which index to use. I own a unique mix of master limited partnerships, individual stocks and mutual funds. I compare my results to the S&P 500. But since my portfolio is a little more value-oriented, maybe I should use the Russell 1000 Value Index. But I also own some foreign stocks, so maybe…. My concern about selecting the correct comparison index always seems to increase in years where I underperform the S&P 500. 2. Stock-pickers have to deal with buyouts and reorganizations, which then trigger capital gains. This plays havoc with tax planning and possibly with income planning. A few years back, a very significant position of mine, Kinder Morgan Partners, was reorganized from a master limited partnership to a corporation, sticking me with hefty unplanned capital gains. It didn’t help when the company subsequently cut its dividend, which led to a precipitous decrease in its stock price. Who likes to pay tax on capital gains, only to see the value of your current position is…
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Voyage to Nowhere

"REGRETS, I'VE HAD a few. But then again, too few to mention." What was true for Frank Sinatra most definitely isn’t true for me. I’ve had more than a few regrets, and I want to mention the most recent one. Late last year, Mark Cuban offered me $100 in bitcoin to download the Voyager app, deposit $100 and make a $10 trade. For those of you who are lucky enough not to know what Voyager was, it was an app that offered “a secure way to trade over 60 different crypto assets using its easy-to-use mobile application.” I’ve been retired now for a few years. Since idle hands are the devil’s workshop, I’ve used some of the time to accept bonuses offered by brokers, banks and financial institutions. Besides the obvious reward, I find these offers to be educational, though this time it was a little too educational. Like most people, I was intrigued when I first heard about bitcoin. After a colleague explained to me its inner workings and all the benefits of the blockchain, I was fascinated. I really thought that bitcoin might be worthy of investment. This didn’t last long. I realized that bitcoin may not be all it was cracked up to be when, a few hours later, I tried to explain it all to my wife and none of it made any sense. I should have gone on living bitcoin-free. But when Cuban made me the offer, I figured that—even if bitcoin went to zero—I would still have my original $100. I decided to play it safe. I made the required $10 trade with a quick roundtrip in and out of tether, a cryptocurrency designed to trade one-to-one with the U.S. dollar. In the end, I decided not to sell the bitcoin that Cuban gave…
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