Parting Advice
Kyle McIntosh | Jun 17, 2022
HALF OF THE COLLEGE students I taught last semester just graduated. A few are going on to graduate school, but most are starting accounting, finance or other business careers. For my classes with a heavy concentration of seniors, I reserve the last five minutes of the final class to give them a few career tips. In keeping with my overall teaching approach, I keep the message simple: Do what you enjoy.
Now, this isn’t the usual “follow your passion” pitch you hear in so many commencement addresses. In fact, I start by saying that most of us won’t follow our passion. Often, it isn’t practical to do so. Because we can’t all be passion-driven, we need to find ways to make our day-to-day work enjoyable. I encourage my graduates to find ways to incorporate things they enjoy into their career. There are two specific tips I share.
First, I recommend graduates use their skills to enter an industry that interests them. Many students have “dream” industries they’d like to work in, such as sports, not-for-profits and life sciences. But most judge it too difficult to land a job in these industries, so they apply to businesses that don’t excite them.
To be sure, graduates with technical majors—think accounting and information technology—may have an easier time getting their foot in the door of a preferred industry. But all graduates have skills, such as problem solving and communication, that are useful in any industry. If you have a genuine interest in an industry, I believe you should make putting your skills to work in that industry your focus. The fact is, if you’re working in your “dream” industry, chances are you’ll be more successful and more fulfilled.
Second, I encourage graduates to prioritize doing things they enjoy at work. These things might not be specifically related to your day-to-day responsibilities. Instead, they might include things like recruiting new employees from your alma mater, leading training sessions or working on special projects. It could even include organizing the company’s sports teams. Assuming you do these things well and they don’t detract from your core duties, you’ll be viewed favorably by your manager and your peers—and you’ll likely enjoy your job more.
Read more » Quality or Quantity?
Kyle Mcintosh | Jul 7, 2024
Every three years or so, I can't resist the temptation to buy disposable razors at Costco. Given the disposables are about $1 each, they are about a third of the price of buying razor cartridges. About a week into the purchase, however, I am reminded why I prefer the cartridges. While more expensive, the cartridges provide a better shave and they last about 3 times as long. While the initial impression I get is that I am getting a bargain, I sacrifice quality and at best I am breakeven on the transaction. What examples do you have on times when a focus on price was more costly than if you'd ponied up for a better quality product in the first place?
Read more » Back on Target
Kyle McIntosh | Jun 29, 2022
AS A COLLEGE professor, there are a few times during the year when things quiet down. During these lulls, I take on tasks that have moved to the bottom of the to-do list. The items include things like doctor’s appointments, home repairs and portfolio rebalancing. I can hear my students’ reaction: “But professor, you teach us about investing in companies and you write about investing. Why do you drop your portfolio review to the bottom of the list?” Valid question.
I find reviewing our portfolio to be tedious. Also, the ultimate output of the process—shift some percent of our portfolio from investment A to investment B—doesn’t get my juices flowing. I’d rather read company financial statements and debate valuations. But I know that regular rebalancing is necessary, so I do it a few times a year. Here’s the process I follow.
We have almost all our money at a single brokerage firm, Schwab, but it’s still a manual process to summarize our positions across our nine accounts. This may sound like too many accounts, but all of them have a specific purpose. Beyond our standard brokerage account, my wife and I both have rollover and Roth IRA accounts. We also have custodial and 529 accounts for our two children. I haven’t found a way on Schwab.com to generate a report on our combined accounts, given the different Social Security numbers involved. Instead, I lean on my Excel skills to summarize the data.
To our Schwab data, I add the positions from our employer-sponsored defined contribution plans. Once I’ve got all the information downloaded, I categorize each investment as U.S. stocks, international stocks, bonds and cash. Once I do this, I use a “SUMIF” formula in Excel to determine the market value for each category.
The final step is to calculate our total investment portfolio’s percentage allocation to each category and compare those allocations to our targets. Based on our investing experience and age, we use the following targets: 55% to 60% U.S. stocks, 20% to 25% international stocks, 15% to 20% bonds and less than 5% cash.
How are things looking? Our allocations to international stocks and bonds were spot on. The main issue was that, at 9%, we had too much cash, and we were low on our allocation to U.S. stocks.
To rectify the situation, we shifted about half the extra cash to a few U.S. stock index funds. To get the rest of the cash invested, I increased our semi-monthly automatic U.S. stock investments. Thanks to that increase, our remaining excess cash will be invested by the end of the summer.
Read more » Missing Takeoff
Kyle McIntosh | Aug 10, 2021
LIKE MOST READERS of this site, I’m committed to index fund investing. Still, even though I know I’d have little chance of beating the market as a stock-picker, I’m periodically tempted to buy individual stocks. When a former mentor who’s a brilliant strategist joined Moderna in May 2020, I strongly considered buying shares. Given where the economy was at the time, I passed on buying the company’s shares (symbol: MRNA) and stuck to my standard S&P 500-index fund investing. In hindsight, this was a mistake. As a daily viewer of CNBC, it’s been hard to ignore the performance of Moderna over the past 16 months. It has increased more than 300% in 2021 and yesterday it was up more than 17%. As I watched CNBC yesterday, I said to myself, “It’s a bummer I didn’t buy shares last year, but at least I’m getting some upside now that Moderna is in the S&P 500.” I spent a little time analyzing this attempt at rationalization—and the results weren’t consoling. Moderna was trading at $321 per share on July 21, the day it joined the S&P 500. On that date, it made up 0.26% of the index. If you had $10,000 invested in an S&P 500 fund, you indirectly owned $26 worth of Moderna stock—about one-twelfth of a share—when it joined the index.
Since joining the S&P 500 index, Moderna stock has climbed some 50% to more than $484 per share at yesterday’s close. Assuming the same $10,000 investment, you have made about $13 on Moderna over the past few weeks. You read that right: Despite Moderna’s substantial price appreciation, the money you made would barely buy avocado toast. My conclusions? First, you won’t get rich quickly through index fund investing. While you’re well-diversified against the risk of any one stock cratering, you’ll also see limited upside from a superstar like Moderna. Second, Moderna has risen to have a market capitalization of close to $200 billion, but it still has a relatively small S&P 500 weighting. The top five companies in the index—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet—comprise more than 20% of the index, so even moderate price swings by these stocks will impact the index much more than significant changes in a company of Moderna’s size. Finally, if you periodically get well-informed gut feelings about individual stocks, it may be worth setting aside a small pool of funds to buy these stocks. Such a mini-portfolio won’t be well-diversified. But you’ll likely have fun with it and, at worst, some losses—and those losses will serve as a reminder to stick with your index funds.
Read more » Resolved: Three Tasks
Kyle McIntosh | Jan 11, 2022
MY FIRST RESOLUTION for 2022 is to clean up my investment portfolio. While my garage and my closets are in good order, I shudder when I review my brokerage account. Over the years, I’ve accumulated close to 20 mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. Overall, I’ve done well with these investments—most of which are based on stock market indexes—but it’s an unnecessary hodge-podge. By the end of the year, I plan to sell a majority of these positions and consolidate the proceeds in a target-date fund. I value the simplicity of target funds, with their regularly rebalanced mix of U.S. shares, international stocks and bonds. My second resolution for 2022 is to update my life-insurance strategy. When my son was born in 2007, I purchased a 15-year term policy. That policy expires in June 2022. First, I need to consider whether I should continue to carry life insurance. Given the increase in our savings over the past 15 years, life insurance may be an unnecessary expense. If I do opt to keep coverage, I’ll weigh whether it’s prudent to continue with term insurance or shift to a whole-life policy. This latter wasn’t on my radar in 2007, but my basic understanding of whole-life insurance tells me it could be worth considering. My third resolution is to create an investment roadmap for my wife. I periodically update her on the value and composition of our portfolio. Still, she’d be hard-pressed to take over management of our investments. My plan is to create a document that describes our accounts, including our brokerage, retirement, custodial and 529 plan accounts. I’ll also document our passwords—in a secure manner, of course—and provide the numbers for her to call if she needs to talk to someone about the accounts. A final note: Thank you to those readers who have provided insightful comments on my 2021 articles and blog posts. I’ve learned a lot from you—especially regarding hybrid and electric vehicles—and I look forward to getting more feedback in the year ahead.
Read more » Mixed Bag
Kyle McIntosh | Aug 21, 2021
WHEN DESIGNING a portfolio, a critical decision is how to allocate your money across stocks, bonds and other investments. Within stocks, you’ll need to make an additional choice: How to split money between U.S. and international. A quick survey of finance-related websites turns up recommendations of 25% to 40% for an investor’s foreign stock allocation. While I agree that investors should have a meaningful percentage of their portfolio in overseas stocks, I don’t think investors should lose sleep over whether they’re at the high or low end of this range. The reason: Companies in U.S. stock funds have significant foreign exposure. Ditto for stocks in international funds. For instance, the top five companies in the S&P 500—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google’s parent Alphabet and Facebook—represent more than 20% of the S&P 500 index’s value. Based on their most recent quarterly earnings reports, I calculate that these companies on average earn more than half of their revenues outside the U.S. While the foreign sales percentage may be lower for smaller companies in the S&P 500, investors in broadly diversified U.S. stock funds clearly have substantial international exposure. Similarly, international stock funds offer significant exposure to the U.S. economy. I analyzed the revenue mix of the top five companies in the MSCI EAFE index, namely Nestle, ASML, Roche, LVMH and Novartis. Using recent earnings reports, I calculate that an average 30% of revenues for these companies were earned in the U.S. While these five stocks only represent 8% of the MSCI EAFE index’s value—it’s a much less concentrated index than the S&P 500—there’s no doubt that international firms have significant exposure to the U.S. economy. My allocation advice: Instead of trying to perfect your allocation to international stock funds, spend more time making sure your overall allocation to all stocks is correct because that, more than anything, will drive your portfolio’s risk level.
Read more »
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- If you’re in a high bracket now and expect to be in a lower one later, a traditional IRA or 401(k) may save you more.
- If you’re in a low bracket now and expect higher taxes later, a Roth is the smarter move.
It’s not about which account is "better", it’s about which one fits your long-term tax outlook. 2. Social Security Taxation Once you start receiving Social Security income, a portion of your benefits could become taxable, depending on your other income sources. The IRS uses something called “provisional income” to determine how much of your benefits are taxed. It includes:- Wages and self-employment income
- Traditional IRA or 401(k) withdrawals
- Dividends, interest, and capital gains
- Rental income
- 1/2 of your Social Security benefits
If you’re single and your provisional income is below $25,000, your Social Security is 100% tax-free. Between $25,000 and $34,000, up to 50% of your benefits are taxed. Above $34,000, up to 85% may be taxable. For married couples, those thresholds are $32,000 and $44,000. The key advantage: Roth withdrawals do not count toward provisional income. That means you can tap your Roth IRA or Roth 401(k) in retirement without increasing your Social Security tax bill. 3. Medicare Premiums Once you enroll in Medicare, your Part B and Part D premiums are based on your income. If your income exceeds $106,000 (single) or $212,000 (married filing jointly), you’ll face higher premiums under the IRMAA rules. The more income you have, the higher your premiums. At the top levels, they can almost triple. The good news is that Roth IRA withdrawals don’t count toward that income calculation. So by using Roth funds in retirement, you can avoid Medicare surcharges and keep your healthcare costs lower. 4. Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s eventually force you to take withdrawals, even if you don’t need the money. Generally, starting at age 73, you must take Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) each year, and those withdrawals are taxable. They can also push you into a higher bracket, make more of your Social Security taxable, and even raise your Medicare premiums. Roth IRAs have no RMDs during your lifetime. That means you control when to withdraw, not the IRS, allowing your money to grow tax-free as long as you want. 5. Early Withdrawal Penalty When you withdraw from a 401(k) or traditional IRA early, you have to pay a 10% penalty along with taxes on the amount withdrawn (unless an exception applies, such as Rule of 55 or SoSEPP) For Roth accounts, the rules are different. With a Roth IRA, you can always withdraw your contributions (not earnings) at any time, completely tax- and penalty-free. However, the same does not apply to a Roth 401(k). If you withdraw funds from a Roth 401(k) before age 59½, each withdrawal is pro rata, meaning a portion is treated as contributions and a portion as earnings. The earnings portion will be taxed and penalized. This treatment differs once you roll over your Roth 401(k) into a Roth IRA. After the rollover, your payroll contributions and earnings are logically separated. There’s no 5-year waiting period for accessing your rolled-over contributions, because a rollover from Roth to Roth is not a conversion. So, if you want early access flexibility, moving your Roth 401(k) funds into a Roth IRA after leaving your employer can be a smart move. And if your income is too high for a direct Roth IRA contribution, you can still get in through the Backdoor Roth strategy. Be Smart Roth accounts offer tremendous flexibility and long-term tax benefits, but that doesn’t mean everyone should contribute. The real key is understanding your marginal tax rate today versus what it’s likely to be in retirement. If you’re in a high bracket now, it may make more sense to take the deduction today through a traditional IRA or 401(k), and convert to a Roth later when your income (and tax rate) is lower, a strategy known as a Roth conversion. On the other hand, if you’re in a low bracket now, for example, early in your career or between jobs, paying taxes upfront through a Roth contribution could save you far more over time. Final Thoughts Roth accounts can shield you from rising taxes, Social Security taxation, Medicare surcharges, RMDs, and early withdrawal penalties, but the biggest advantage comes from using them strategically. Don’t contribute just because "tax-free = good". Run the numbers, compare your current and future rates, and build a mix of pre-tax and Roth savings that gives you flexibility no matter what tax policy looks like in the future. In the end, true tax planning isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about positioning yourself to win under any scenario.Disappointed (and annoyed) with Vanguard.
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