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The dice have no memory. The coin can’t recall the last toss. And the stock market doesn’t care about your investment history.

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Moving is Expensive!

"Of course moving is expensive, you must have known that. Yes, been there done that in 2016 and since moved into an Independent Living CCRC in 2022. Most people move here in their 70's to 80's, but some later. Average age here is 83, 2/3 women and 50 couples out of 234 apartments. Once you are moved in all the hassle is gone. And our CCRC has assisted living, memory care, and nursing when needed. After you enjoy your home, and then it becomes a burden, be ready to make one more move. My mantra during those times is ODAAT, one day at a time, because you can't do it all in a week."
- William Dorner
Read more »

ChatGPT’s Portfolio Advice

"If Gemini ever answers with: "I'm sorry, Dan, I'm afraid I can't do that." Be worried. Be very worried."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Time to share our financial info with children?

"We are currently revising our wills to a very similar structure. Some funds will be distributed initially, but after that it will be a yearly distribution. We really struggled with how to best set this all up. We're still not sure, but I think it's somewhere around the right mark."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

The thief of joy

"Mike, so far, so good. Maybe they realise that I'm just not worth marketing to!"
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Reflections on a Quiet Failure

"Javier, Thanks for this great summary of your first posts replies. Those replies were so thoughtful, that I could not think of anything worthwhile to add to the conversation. To your first question, when I was preparing income taxes, I had a monitor aimed at my clients, so that they  could see what I was doing. Upon finishing the input, I would review the tax return line by line, because I wanted the client to have an understanding of how it all worked; I wanted to educate them. I feel the same about financial planning. I want people to understand and think about their own habits. I would want the client to know the difference between a stock and a bond, what a mutual fund is, to know what diversification is and the logic behind allocations.  For example, I have several friends with income from annuities, none of them can tell me if they are variable or fixed. I don’t think the person they went to for help did a very good job educating them. (Perhaps he didn’t want them to understand what he had sold them).  How do I measure my portfolio's success? Well, now that I am mostly in index ETFs, I figure I sort of own the benchmark, so I don’t see much of a reason to even try to measure my success.  Thanks for another great post. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Mourning the World

"There were 4 deaths during past 3 months in our 55+ community. It is devastating to everyone, especially survivors. My learnings: Focus on relationships, spend time wisely, and be well prepared for end of life. Jonathan, Thanks for showing us what truly matters."
- smr1082
Read more »

The Quiet Failure of Good Advice

"Rick, Thank you for volunteering as a tax preparer. I do the same myself. There is a non-profit that provides free financial literacy. The program includes mentors who meet online with students to give feedback. You can volunteer to become a mentor, which requires no formal certification or experience. The program trains volunteers on what to know and what to expect. For each student, you meet with them three times over the course of a year. Each meeting is 90 - 120 minutes on date that is mutually chosen by both parties. For more information, the program is 3rd Decade. https://3rddecade.org/"
- Hall Plante
Read more »

Bucket Strategy

A WHILE BACK, I was speaking with a fellow who had recently retired. He shared this observation, only half-jokingly: “Working was easy,” he said. What he meant was that financial management during our working years is more straightforward than it is in retirement. We earn and save and hope that our savings grow. But when we get to retirement, it becomes more complicated to know exactly how to manage those savings. In the 1950s, a Ph.D. student named Harry Markowitz developed a framework to help investors answer this question. His approach, which is now known as modern portfolio theory, provided new insights on how to effectively diversify a portfolio. He later won a Nobel Prize for this work. But useful as it was, modern portfolio theory involved a lot of math and didn’t offer investors any practical help in managing their savings. Other academic theories have emerged over the years, but all of them involved similar levels of complexity. It was for that reason that in 1985, financial planner Harold Evensky developed an idea that’s now known as the “bucket strategy.” The idea is that investors—especially those in retirement—should segment their portfolios. To understand this idea, we can look at a simple example. Suppose Tom is a recent retiree and planning to withdraw 5% of his portfolio each year for the next several years. To protect against a potential stock market downturn, it would be reasonable for him to hold five years worth of withdrawals in some combination of cash and short-term bonds, since that corresponds, more or less, to the length of the worst stock market downturns we’ve seen in modern times.  In Evensky’s model, cash and bonds would be the first bucket, and the math is straightforward: If Tom wants to withdraw 5% each year and wants to set aside enough for five years, then he’d hold 25% (that is, 5% x 5) in the first bucket. With that 25% allocated to bonds for stability, Tom could then feel free to allocate the remaining 75% to stocks. The benefit of this structure is that Tom would then have the flexibility to withdraw from either the stock or bond side of his portfolio depending on where the stock market stood in any given year. Most importantly, by putting a wall between his stocks and his bonds, Tom would be able to avoid selling stocks during market downturns. The bucket concept can be very useful, but it’s important to know that there isn’t just one bucket strategy. Since Evensky first introduced the idea 40 years ago, a handful of alternatives have evolved. Evensky’s original structure consisted of just two buckets. This makes it simple and easy to manage. A downside, though, is that bonds can still lose money, so neither of the two buckets could be considered truly safe. In 2022, in fact, total-bond market funds lost more than 10% of their value, and it took several years for investors to get back to even. Thus, one of the most popular ways to structure a bucket portfolio is to add a third bucket, for cash. To be sure, cash doesn’t offer much growth potential. But it would’ve been extremely helpful in a year like 2022, when both bonds and stocks lost money. While it provides more protection, the downside of a three-bucket approach is that it’s more complicated and somewhat harder to manage. Proponents, however, argue that it doesn’t require much more effort than traditional portfolio rebalancing and is well worth the effort. In his book, The Aspirational Investor, Ashvin Chhabra lays out another bucket alternative. Chhabra is less concerned with the distinction between bonds and cash. Instead, he advises investors to focus on the riskier side of their portfolios. He suggests that investors distinguish between standard, publicly-traded stock market investments and any alternative assets, such as private funds and real estate, that they might hold. Chhabra feels this segmentation is important because of the nature of alternative investments. They’re a little like lottery tickets: They can turn into home runs but can also go to zero. If you’re constructing a portfolio and like the idea of a bucket approach, which way should you go?  Since each of these approaches has merit, you could combine them all, creating a four-bucket setup, consisting of cash, bonds, stocks and alternatives. That wouldn’t be unreasonable, but it would also ratchet up the complexity level. Here’s the approach I recommend: First, like Chhabra, I would draw a distinction between traditional assets and alternatives. Traditional, publicly-traded investments, including standard stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs, would go in your core portfolio. These are the assets around which you’d build your plan.  Alternatives, if you own them, would go in their own separate bucket. In general, I don’t recommend these types of assets because their performance is more variable and more unpredictable, and because they tend to carry higher fees. But if you already own some alternatives, I’d separate them from your financial plan and view them only as a bonus if they deliver value. In other words, make sure that your financial plan will still work if you were to rely on only your core portfolio. Within the core, I’d have just two buckets: one for stocks and one for bonds. The result is that you would have just two buckets, plus alternatives, if you happen to own them. But what about cash, since, as we saw earlier, bonds aren’t guaranteed and can certainly lose money? In my view, a dedicated, separate cash bucket isn’t necessary. Instead, what I recommend is to be diligent in diversifying your bond holdings. I wouldn’t own a total-bond market fund. Instead, take a building block approach, holding some short-term and some intermediate-term bond funds. Short-term funds will shine when rates are rising because they’ll decline much less than total-market funds. Intermediate-term bonds, on the other hand, will shine when rates are dropping. You could also add some inflation-protected bonds to round out your holdings. At the end of the day, the best portfolio structure is the one that’s simple to manage while also protecting your savings from whatever surprises the market delivers.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

The Ping

"Been there done that. I am 80 this year, and I split my entire coin collection mostly to the grands in 2015 but also the children. However ,I saved my birth year coins, so that folder of 21 coins represents them all! I suggest you keep 3 favorites, and maybe someone in the family will treasure those for years to come."
- William Dorner
Read more »

SpaceX IPO: Is Margin Optional?

"Amen. Just buy that one share, it will be all you need for your grands. Get a picture of the share, and frame that instead."
- William Dorner
Read more »

Mega Backdoor Roth

I WAS RECENTLY asked about strategies that high earners can use to reduce their tax bill.

Most people know the usual options. They contribute to a 401(k), fund a health savings account or make a Roth IRA contribution through the backdoor method. Business owners may have additional opportunities through retirement plans and business structures.

But there's another strategy worth knowing about: the Mega Backdoor Roth (MBDR).

The MBDR allows some workers to put far more money into Roth accounts than the usual contribution limits permit.

Consider somebody who contributes the maximum $24,500 to a 401(k) in 2026 and receives a $5,000 employer match. If the employer's retirement plan allows after-tax contributions, that worker may be able to contribute an additional $42,500 to the retirement plan.

This is because the total 401(k) contribution limit for 2026 is $72,000. That limit includes employee contributions, employer contributions and after-tax contributions. Subtract the $24,500 employee contribution and the $5,000 employer match, and there's room for another $42,500. Workers age 50 and older might be able to contribute even more ($80,000 total 401(k) limit in 2026) because of catch-up provisions.

For savers who have already exhausted other retirement account options, this can be a powerful way to build additional tax-free savings.

The catch

Your employer's retirement plan must permit after-tax contributions.

Many plans don't. According to Fidelity, only about 11% of employer-sponsored 401(k) plans offer MBDR conversions.

If you log into your retirement plan and review your contribution options, you may see a category labeled "after-tax." That's the option you need:

Importantly, don't confuse it with a Roth 401(k). They're similar, but different. Small-business owners with a solo 401(k) may also be able to use this strategy if their plan allows.

The MBDR process generally involves two steps:

  1. Contribute money to the plan's after-tax account.
  2. Move those funds to a Roth account.

Depending on your plan, the money may be rolled into either a Roth IRA or a Roth 401(k).

The rules vary from plan to plan. Check your plan documents or summary plan description before enganging in this strategy.

Why use it?

Suppose you've already maxed out your traditional 401(k) contribution and completed a backdoor Roth IRA contribution. You now have additional money to invest.

One option is a taxable brokerage account. Another is the Mega Backdoor Roth.

The Roth strategy offers several potential advantages:

  • Future growth can be tax-free.
  • Dividends aren't taxed each year.
  • Rebalancing investments doesn't trigger taxable gains.
  • Retirement assets may receive creditor protection under federal law.

A taxable brokerage account also has advantages:

  • No contribution limits.
  • No age-based withdrawal rules.
  • Greater flexibility if you need access to the money before retirement.

That flexibility shouldn't be overlooked. Retirement accounts come with restrictions, and those restrictions may matter depending on your goals.

Importantly, some plans allow you to move after-tax contributions to either Roth IRA or Roth 401(k) accounts. A Roth 401(k) may be simpler because some plans offer automatic conversions. A Roth IRA typically offers a wider range of investment choices. It may also provide greater flexibility when it comes to withdrawals.

I generally prefer the Roth IRA option when it's available. Still, either choice can work well.

Mind the earnings

After-tax contributions are usually invested while they remain in the 401(k).

If the account earns money before the conversion takes place, those earnings are taxable when moved to the Roth account. For that reason, many investors try to complete the conversion quickly. Some plans even allow automatic conversions.

Suppose you contribute $10,000 to the after-tax portion of your 401(k). Before the conversion occurs, the account earns $100.

You then move the balance to a Roth IRA. The entire $10,100 can be transferred, but the $100 of earnings will generally be taxable if you put it all into Roth IRA. There are plans that allow you to split between Roth and Traditional, which could be helpful.

At year-end, you'll receive Form 1099-R reporting the transaction.

Using the example above, your tax return would show a $10,100 distribution, with $100 generally treated as taxable income.

If you work with a tax professional, make sure they understand exactly what happened. The reporting isn't especially complicated, but it should be handled correctly.

The Mega Backdoor Roth isn't available to everybody. But for those whose retirement plans allow it, the strategy offers a chance to put a substantial amount of additional money into a Roth account and enjoy tax-free growth for years to come.

Have you used this strategy to contribute to your retirement accounts? Let us know in the comments!

 

Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.  

Read more »

Moving is Expensive!

"Of course moving is expensive, you must have known that. Yes, been there done that in 2016 and since moved into an Independent Living CCRC in 2022. Most people move here in their 70's to 80's, but some later. Average age here is 83, 2/3 women and 50 couples out of 234 apartments. Once you are moved in all the hassle is gone. And our CCRC has assisted living, memory care, and nursing when needed. After you enjoy your home, and then it becomes a burden, be ready to make one more move. My mantra during those times is ODAAT, one day at a time, because you can't do it all in a week."
- William Dorner
Read more »

ChatGPT’s Portfolio Advice

"If Gemini ever answers with: "I'm sorry, Dan, I'm afraid I can't do that." Be worried. Be very worried."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Time to share our financial info with children?

"We are currently revising our wills to a very similar structure. Some funds will be distributed initially, but after that it will be a yearly distribution. We really struggled with how to best set this all up. We're still not sure, but I think it's somewhere around the right mark."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

The thief of joy

"Mike, so far, so good. Maybe they realise that I'm just not worth marketing to!"
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Reflections on a Quiet Failure

"Javier, Thanks for this great summary of your first posts replies. Those replies were so thoughtful, that I could not think of anything worthwhile to add to the conversation. To your first question, when I was preparing income taxes, I had a monitor aimed at my clients, so that they  could see what I was doing. Upon finishing the input, I would review the tax return line by line, because I wanted the client to have an understanding of how it all worked; I wanted to educate them. I feel the same about financial planning. I want people to understand and think about their own habits. I would want the client to know the difference between a stock and a bond, what a mutual fund is, to know what diversification is and the logic behind allocations.  For example, I have several friends with income from annuities, none of them can tell me if they are variable or fixed. I don’t think the person they went to for help did a very good job educating them. (Perhaps he didn’t want them to understand what he had sold them).  How do I measure my portfolio's success? Well, now that I am mostly in index ETFs, I figure I sort of own the benchmark, so I don’t see much of a reason to even try to measure my success.  Thanks for another great post. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Mourning the World

"There were 4 deaths during past 3 months in our 55+ community. It is devastating to everyone, especially survivors. My learnings: Focus on relationships, spend time wisely, and be well prepared for end of life. Jonathan, Thanks for showing us what truly matters."
- smr1082
Read more »

The Quiet Failure of Good Advice

"Rick, Thank you for volunteering as a tax preparer. I do the same myself. There is a non-profit that provides free financial literacy. The program includes mentors who meet online with students to give feedback. You can volunteer to become a mentor, which requires no formal certification or experience. The program trains volunteers on what to know and what to expect. For each student, you meet with them three times over the course of a year. Each meeting is 90 - 120 minutes on date that is mutually chosen by both parties. For more information, the program is 3rd Decade. https://3rddecade.org/"
- Hall Plante
Read more »

Bucket Strategy

A WHILE BACK, I was speaking with a fellow who had recently retired. He shared this observation, only half-jokingly: “Working was easy,” he said. What he meant was that financial management during our working years is more straightforward than it is in retirement. We earn and save and hope that our savings grow. But when we get to retirement, it becomes more complicated to know exactly how to manage those savings. In the 1950s, a Ph.D. student named Harry Markowitz developed a framework to help investors answer this question. His approach, which is now known as modern portfolio theory, provided new insights on how to effectively diversify a portfolio. He later won a Nobel Prize for this work. But useful as it was, modern portfolio theory involved a lot of math and didn’t offer investors any practical help in managing their savings. Other academic theories have emerged over the years, but all of them involved similar levels of complexity. It was for that reason that in 1985, financial planner Harold Evensky developed an idea that’s now known as the “bucket strategy.” The idea is that investors—especially those in retirement—should segment their portfolios. To understand this idea, we can look at a simple example. Suppose Tom is a recent retiree and planning to withdraw 5% of his portfolio each year for the next several years. To protect against a potential stock market downturn, it would be reasonable for him to hold five years worth of withdrawals in some combination of cash and short-term bonds, since that corresponds, more or less, to the length of the worst stock market downturns we’ve seen in modern times.  In Evensky’s model, cash and bonds would be the first bucket, and the math is straightforward: If Tom wants to withdraw 5% each year and wants to set aside enough for five years, then he’d hold 25% (that is, 5% x 5) in the first bucket. With that 25% allocated to bonds for stability, Tom could then feel free to allocate the remaining 75% to stocks. The benefit of this structure is that Tom would then have the flexibility to withdraw from either the stock or bond side of his portfolio depending on where the stock market stood in any given year. Most importantly, by putting a wall between his stocks and his bonds, Tom would be able to avoid selling stocks during market downturns. The bucket concept can be very useful, but it’s important to know that there isn’t just one bucket strategy. Since Evensky first introduced the idea 40 years ago, a handful of alternatives have evolved. Evensky’s original structure consisted of just two buckets. This makes it simple and easy to manage. A downside, though, is that bonds can still lose money, so neither of the two buckets could be considered truly safe. In 2022, in fact, total-bond market funds lost more than 10% of their value, and it took several years for investors to get back to even. Thus, one of the most popular ways to structure a bucket portfolio is to add a third bucket, for cash. To be sure, cash doesn’t offer much growth potential. But it would’ve been extremely helpful in a year like 2022, when both bonds and stocks lost money. While it provides more protection, the downside of a three-bucket approach is that it’s more complicated and somewhat harder to manage. Proponents, however, argue that it doesn’t require much more effort than traditional portfolio rebalancing and is well worth the effort. In his book, The Aspirational Investor, Ashvin Chhabra lays out another bucket alternative. Chhabra is less concerned with the distinction between bonds and cash. Instead, he advises investors to focus on the riskier side of their portfolios. He suggests that investors distinguish between standard, publicly-traded stock market investments and any alternative assets, such as private funds and real estate, that they might hold. Chhabra feels this segmentation is important because of the nature of alternative investments. They’re a little like lottery tickets: They can turn into home runs but can also go to zero. If you’re constructing a portfolio and like the idea of a bucket approach, which way should you go?  Since each of these approaches has merit, you could combine them all, creating a four-bucket setup, consisting of cash, bonds, stocks and alternatives. That wouldn’t be unreasonable, but it would also ratchet up the complexity level. Here’s the approach I recommend: First, like Chhabra, I would draw a distinction between traditional assets and alternatives. Traditional, publicly-traded investments, including standard stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs, would go in your core portfolio. These are the assets around which you’d build your plan.  Alternatives, if you own them, would go in their own separate bucket. In general, I don’t recommend these types of assets because their performance is more variable and more unpredictable, and because they tend to carry higher fees. But if you already own some alternatives, I’d separate them from your financial plan and view them only as a bonus if they deliver value. In other words, make sure that your financial plan will still work if you were to rely on only your core portfolio. Within the core, I’d have just two buckets: one for stocks and one for bonds. The result is that you would have just two buckets, plus alternatives, if you happen to own them. But what about cash, since, as we saw earlier, bonds aren’t guaranteed and can certainly lose money? In my view, a dedicated, separate cash bucket isn’t necessary. Instead, what I recommend is to be diligent in diversifying your bond holdings. I wouldn’t own a total-bond market fund. Instead, take a building block approach, holding some short-term and some intermediate-term bond funds. Short-term funds will shine when rates are rising because they’ll decline much less than total-market funds. Intermediate-term bonds, on the other hand, will shine when rates are dropping. You could also add some inflation-protected bonds to round out your holdings. At the end of the day, the best portfolio structure is the one that’s simple to manage while also protecting your savings from whatever surprises the market delivers.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Mega Backdoor Roth

I WAS RECENTLY asked about strategies that high earners can use to reduce their tax bill.

Most people know the usual options. They contribute to a 401(k), fund a health savings account or make a Roth IRA contribution through the backdoor method. Business owners may have additional opportunities through retirement plans and business structures.

But there's another strategy worth knowing about: the Mega Backdoor Roth (MBDR).

The MBDR allows some workers to put far more money into Roth accounts than the usual contribution limits permit.

Consider somebody who contributes the maximum $24,500 to a 401(k) in 2026 and receives a $5,000 employer match. If the employer's retirement plan allows after-tax contributions, that worker may be able to contribute an additional $42,500 to the retirement plan.

This is because the total 401(k) contribution limit for 2026 is $72,000. That limit includes employee contributions, employer contributions and after-tax contributions. Subtract the $24,500 employee contribution and the $5,000 employer match, and there's room for another $42,500. Workers age 50 and older might be able to contribute even more ($80,000 total 401(k) limit in 2026) because of catch-up provisions.

For savers who have already exhausted other retirement account options, this can be a powerful way to build additional tax-free savings.

The catch

Your employer's retirement plan must permit after-tax contributions.

Many plans don't. According to Fidelity, only about 11% of employer-sponsored 401(k) plans offer MBDR conversions.

If you log into your retirement plan and review your contribution options, you may see a category labeled "after-tax." That's the option you need:

Importantly, don't confuse it with a Roth 401(k). They're similar, but different. Small-business owners with a solo 401(k) may also be able to use this strategy if their plan allows.

The MBDR process generally involves two steps:

  1. Contribute money to the plan's after-tax account.
  2. Move those funds to a Roth account.

Depending on your plan, the money may be rolled into either a Roth IRA or a Roth 401(k).

The rules vary from plan to plan. Check your plan documents or summary plan description before enganging in this strategy.

Why use it?

Suppose you've already maxed out your traditional 401(k) contribution and completed a backdoor Roth IRA contribution. You now have additional money to invest.

One option is a taxable brokerage account. Another is the Mega Backdoor Roth.

The Roth strategy offers several potential advantages:

  • Future growth can be tax-free.
  • Dividends aren't taxed each year.
  • Rebalancing investments doesn't trigger taxable gains.
  • Retirement assets may receive creditor protection under federal law.

A taxable brokerage account also has advantages:

  • No contribution limits.
  • No age-based withdrawal rules.
  • Greater flexibility if you need access to the money before retirement.

That flexibility shouldn't be overlooked. Retirement accounts come with restrictions, and those restrictions may matter depending on your goals.

Importantly, some plans allow you to move after-tax contributions to either Roth IRA or Roth 401(k) accounts. A Roth 401(k) may be simpler because some plans offer automatic conversions. A Roth IRA typically offers a wider range of investment choices. It may also provide greater flexibility when it comes to withdrawals.

I generally prefer the Roth IRA option when it's available. Still, either choice can work well.

Mind the earnings

After-tax contributions are usually invested while they remain in the 401(k).

If the account earns money before the conversion takes place, those earnings are taxable when moved to the Roth account. For that reason, many investors try to complete the conversion quickly. Some plans even allow automatic conversions.

Suppose you contribute $10,000 to the after-tax portion of your 401(k). Before the conversion occurs, the account earns $100.

You then move the balance to a Roth IRA. The entire $10,100 can be transferred, but the $100 of earnings will generally be taxable if you put it all into Roth IRA. There are plans that allow you to split between Roth and Traditional, which could be helpful.

At year-end, you'll receive Form 1099-R reporting the transaction.

Using the example above, your tax return would show a $10,100 distribution, with $100 generally treated as taxable income.

If you work with a tax professional, make sure they understand exactly what happened. The reporting isn't especially complicated, but it should be handled correctly.

The Mega Backdoor Roth isn't available to everybody. But for those whose retirement plans allow it, the strategy offers a chance to put a substantial amount of additional money into a Roth account and enjoy tax-free growth for years to come.

Have you used this strategy to contribute to your retirement accounts? Let us know in the comments!

 

Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.  

Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 60: WE SHOULDN’T necessarily be investment contrarians, but we should be leery of crowds. When “everybody” is buying, that’s a warning sign—and we should resist joining the stampede.

humans

NO. 25: WE LIKE the idea of choice—but we’re often happier when we have less of it. Welcome to the so-called paradox of choice: If we’re presented with too many options, we can become paralyzed and fail to make a decision, plus all the choice leads to added anxiety. Exhibit A: 401(k) plans, where more options often cause employees to make poorer investment decisions.

Truths

NO. 55: UPSIDE GAINS are a sign of downside risk. Investors will say they don’t care how quickly an investment rises, only about how fast it might fall. But if an investment’s price skyrockets, there's a risk it’ll plunge just as rapidly. The lesson: Pay attention to measures of volatility such as beta and standard deviation—and be leery of soaring stocks and funds.

act

BUY THE BIG THREE. The market portfolio consists of four major sectors, roughly equal in size: U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, foreign shares and foreign bonds. Arguably, foreign bonds are optional, offering modest yields but wild currency swings. The other three sectors, however, are crucial to a diversified portfolio. Do you own enough of all three?

Not sure how to comment?

Manifesto

NO. 60: WE SHOULDN’T necessarily be investment contrarians, but we should be leery of crowds. When “everybody” is buying, that’s a warning sign—and we should resist joining the stampede.

Spotlight: Happiness

Stealing Joy

IF YOU’RE A HISTORY buff, you know how difficult life was during the 1930s. In our modern American world of plenty, it can be hard to appreciate what life was like during that period. The Great Depression, as it was later dubbed, was a time of incredible strife and struggle.
Today, we have an unemployment rate of less than 4%. During the 1930s, it reached 25% in the U.S. Think about that. A quarter of the country was looking for work to feed their family,

Read more »

Runner’s High

I’VE RECENTLY BEEN reading and listening to health experts who study the brain chemical known as dopamine. I’m no health expert and I don’t claim any specialized knowledge on the subject, but I’ve learned dopamine is widely considered to be the “pleasure chemical.”
Think about the feeling in between bites of chocolate cake, when we know just how good that next bite is going to be. As we anticipate our reward, our dopamine spikes,

Read more »

Happy Conclusion

FOR THE PAST FEW years, I’ve been on a Radiohead kick. For the uninitiated, Radiohead is an English rock band whose lead singer is Thom Yorke, known for his distinctive whining vocals—I mean that in a good way—and innovative songwriting.
As I read about Yorke, a quote from him leaped off the page: “When I was a kid, I always assumed that [fame] was going to answer something—fill a gap. And it does the absolute opposite.”
I immediately thought of the financial corollary.

Read more »

No Satisfaction

MONEY BUYS HAPPINESS—but it may not buy us very much. Indeed, no matter how much we earn and no matter what other steps we take to boost happiness, we may discover the impact is modest and fleeting.
That brings me to a recent academic debate. In 2010, Princeton University’s Angus Deaton and Daniel Kahneman noted that happiness, on average, didn’t appear to increase beyond an annual income of $75,000 or so—a finding that’s since been widely reported in the mainstream media.

Read more »

Happiness at Home

I HAVE READ THAT spending on experiences brings more happiness than spending on things. But what about the experience of buying? Can that make us happy?
I’ve lived in my small community for 21 years. Over that time, my regular buying habits have led me to discover people who provide me with excellent service. They also supply me with a generous measure of genuine satisfaction.
Every third Friday, I sit and listen to a great raconteur as he cuts my hair.

Read more »

Try to Be Satisfied

ONE OF MY FAVORITE books is The Paradox of Choice by Barry Schwartz. Its subtitle is Why More Is Less: How the Culture of Abundance Robs Us of Satisfaction. The principles that the book discusses have important implications for how we manage our money.
Schwartz distinguishes between “maximizers” and “satisficers.” A maximizer is someone who needs to be assured that he or she is making the best decision possible.

Read more »

Spotlight: Saha

Mounting Costs

INFLATION CROPS UP in almost every conversation I have with friends and acquaintances. Everyone’s getting squeezed by higher prices. Folks complain not only about where prices are today, but also about how quickly they rose. Prices today seem shocking compared to last year or the year before that. But how do they compare to prices from 10 years ago? To find out, I calculated the average annual inflation rate over trailing 10-year periods using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The chart below shows the rolling 10-year average annual inflation rate for the past 80 years. Lately, 12-month CPI-U has been running around 9%. But if we extend the time horizon back 10 years, to mid-2012, the recent spike barely registers, with the average annual increase for the past decade coming in at just 2.6%. From this longer-term perspective, inflation looks deceptively mild. Going back 10 more years, the average annual price increase for the 10 years through mid-2012 was 2.5%, almost identical to the most recent 10-year stretch. Does anyone remember a ruckus being made about price increases in 2012 similar to the one being raised today?  My point: A sudden surge in inflation causes panic, but the insidious effect of slow and steady inflation gets little attention. When I pointed this out to a friend, he wasn’t impressed. It seems he would’ve preferred steady, annual price increases of 2.6%, instead of the low inflation we’ve enjoyed for much of the past decade followed by a sudden spike. I wasn’t so sure. Why not? Let’s assume my friend’s annual spending as of mid-2012 was $10,000 a year and his yearly expenses went up in lockstep with CPI-U. His total expenses from July 2012 to June 2022 would amount to $110,267. But if, instead, he got his…
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Affordable Mistakes

WHEN I SET OUT TO improve my financial knowledge, sites like HumbleDollar didn’t exist. Instead, I garnered insights from books, investment seminars and like-minded people. Still, my greatest lessons came from my own financial mistakes. I’ve made many, and I still occasionally stumble. A few missteps were costly and had lasting repercussions, but the rest were less damaging, especially considering the lessons I learned from them. Here are six of what I call my “affordable mistakes.” 1. Investing in individual stocks without research. After losing years of investment compounding by ignoring the stock market, I foolishly adopted an invest-now-research-later approach. Relying solely on company name and price history, I narrowed my buy list to a dozen or so public companies and then invested equal amounts in each. Among my selections were two familiar names. I knew about Eastman Kodak from my college days, when one of my hobbies was developing film. And I was familiar with Washington Mutual because the bank sponsored a spectacular annual firework display that I loved to watch. I naively assumed that these stocks, together with the others I chose, would be good long-term investments. They weren’t. Both Kodak and WaMu eventually failed, leaving me with no chance of recouping my investment. I figured that unless you enjoyed stock research (which I didn’t), had a strong desire to beat the market (which I didn’t), and could dedicate time to staying on top of company and industry news (which I couldn’t), it made no sense to favor individual stocks over low-cost, diversified stock funds. 2. Borrowing from my 401(k). In my mid-30s, when I was going through a financially challenging period, I found myself in need of immediate cash. My 401(k) plan offered a loan that seemed appealing. The paperwork was minimal, the funds would be available…
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Identity Crisis

MAY 18, 2020, STARTED as an ordinary Monday. I was busy with office work. An email from our human resources department hit my inbox. It said something about fraudulent unemployment benefits. I couldn’t pay attention right away, so I saved it to read later. That evening, I found five letters from our state’s unemployment claims department in the mail. I’d never heard of such a department, but it reminded me about the email I got earlier. This time, I read the email more carefully. It turned out that someone had filed for unemployment benefits using my personal information. Many coworkers were also affected. They’d had little luck in contacting the state’s unemployment claims department directly. On behalf of the impacted workers, our employer was working with the department to flag these claims as illegitimate. Needless to say, I was surprised and worried. The letters from the state, dated between May 14 and 16, had bigger surprises. First, the department still seemed unaware that the claim filed on my account was fraudulent. Second, it appeared the department had started making payments without complete verification. The third surprise was most disturbing. Sensitive personal information about my employment and wages were included in the letters. I couldn’t tell whether that information was also sent electronically to the fraudulent claimant. That would surely make me a target for future, possibly more sophisticated, cyberattacks. I was curious about how this had happened, but first I needed to worry about my own vulnerability. My personal information had previously been exposed by a few of the well-known security breaches, including one involving my former mortgage lender. It had taken me months to sort out an identity-related tax fraud a few years ago. That experience was frustrating. The prospect of repeating that same drill was daunting. Sadly, I had no…
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Bracing for the Worst

BACK IN 1989, AS I was finishing the final semester of my undergraduate degree in India, I managed to bag two decent job offers. The first was from a government organization in my hometown, and the second was from an out-of-state private company in western India. I had a few weeks to make up my mind. I was leaning toward the second offer. Not only did the idea of living on my own in a faraway town sound adventurous, but also the private employer’s compensation package was better. Still, my father suggested the other job. Being a government employee himself, he liked the job security of public sector employment. Frankly, I didn’t think that was important, but I went with the local job anyway because most of my friends were still in town. A decade and a few jobs later, I moved to the U.S. to work for a multinational software company. I’ve stayed with the firm ever since. My job has always felt safe and secure. But that began to change in recent months, when several tech companies announced plans to downsize. I got a phone call from an anxious friend who works at my company. My friend and his wife had their first child last November and were busy adjusting to caring for a newborn. He rejoined work when his parental leave was over and heard rumors from his teammates about upcoming layoffs. I didn’t know anything about any layoffs, so I advised him to ignore the rumors, and focus on his family and work. The rumors, however, grew louder and, over the next few days, started showing up in the media. Soon after, our CEO announced plans to reduce the workforce in the coming months. The anxiety and confusion were now official. Everyone seemed to have the same…
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Grateful Debt

THE AGE-OLD DEBATE about not borrowing to buy depreciating assets came up again in a recent HumbleDollar article. Despite being a big proponent of debt-free living, I could relate to the story of borrowing to buy a car. In fact, I’m guilty of having gone deeply into debt in my younger days to feed my passion for music—and I don’t regret it. I grew up listening to Indian music of various genres, but it wasn’t until my college days that I came to really appreciate the sound quality and texture of music. Our dorm had a high-fidelity stereo, plus a decent collection of vinyl records and audio cassettes. I’d spend hours in the common room, listening to classic rock or favorite Bollywood film scores. My newfound love of music, alas, came to an end after I left college and moved back home to Kolkata. We had a portable radio and cassette player in our house, but it didn’t satisfy my craving for quality sound. My life felt so incomplete without a good audio system that I decided to buy one once my paychecks started coming in. I grabbed a coworker named Natesh, who shared my love for music, and we visited an upscale audio showroom near our office. Luckily, the store stocked a nearly identical sound system to the one in my dorm. It was a top-of-the-line modular audio system named Uranus 2 by Sonodyne, one of the most innovative stereo makers in India. I instantly fell in love with the set and wanted to take it home. There was just one small problem. I couldn’t afford it. In the late 1980s, premium audio products weren’t cheap in India. The model I wanted would cost almost a year of my take-home pay. That helped explain why the salesperson didn’t take us…
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Diminished Value

A CRUCIAL STEP WHEN buying a preowned car is to scrutinize its Carfax report. A single-owner car with a regular maintenance history and which was driven solely for personal use should be a safe bet, while an accident record gives most people pause. All things being equal, a car that was in an accident, however minor, ought to cost less than a similar one with a clean history. Some bargain hunters don’t mind taking a chance on a car with an accident history as long as it drives well. After all, the discount can be quite attractive. This might seem unfair for a seller who wasn’t at fault for the accident. Even if the car was repaired to perfection and the tab was picked by the other party’s insurance, how does the owner recover the value lost? A recent accident forced us to find out the answer. We flew across the country to spend the Labor Day week with my brother-in-law. While driving us around in his almost-new car, he was rear-ended by a pickup truck. Thankfully, no one was hurt, and the car was still drivable. The pickup’s apologetic driver accepted fault and assured us that his insurance would cover all repairs. Still, we worried about the car’s market value. It turns out that my brother-in-law can recoup some of the loss through a diminished value claim. First, he needs to get a fair estimate of the loss of market value due to the accident. This might involve researching prices of similar used cars with and without an accident history, or even getting a free estimate. Next, he must contact the other driver’s insurance company and specifically request diminished value compensation. This amount would be on top of the repair and rental costs. The claim should be made in a…
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