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Recency Bias (or: You’re Running Buggy Software)

"Thanks for throwing a couple nominations out there for consideration ;). Being in the position to look forward to a correction/bear dip or not be disappointed that it didn’t happen is a good place to be. In anticipation of no new cash coming in I’m trying a little “creating alpha” experiment with my S&P 500 index allocation. I am using VUG (approx S&P500 growth) & VTV (approx S&P500 value) for about 25% of my S&P 500 allocation. Periodic rebalancing between the two if they material diverge in performance to possibly create alpha. I don’t have a set divergence rule yet, I did rebalance several weeks back when VTV was up ~8% and VUG was down ~5%. I may find this is not worth the squeeze or may just get board with the concept. It’s mostly for curiosity without much performance risk."
- Andy Morrison
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Fixing Social Security once and for all

"It insurance. It’s the law intentionally because lower income earners have less ability to accumulate assets and wealth. The accrual rate is a bit better for the lower income"
- R Quinn
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What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

"Thank you Dave. It's hard to fathom we moved there after the war and then to be faced with several significant coups during 1975-1976."
- Andrew Clements
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Social Security Survivor Benefits for Spouses

"Thank you. I suspect my own benefit (taken at 70) is greater than a survivor benefit, but you never know."
- mytimetotravel
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Nothing Like a War To Bring Folks around to Personal Financial Planning

"I like the concept "Pay yourself first". When I started practicing I set my savings rate and this determined what I could spend. This plan was simple, easy to stick with and effective. Some years later I tracked my expenses for a while and noticed that while my overall spending was under control, the amount spent proportionately on certain areas was not what I would have preferred. So I implemented a spending plan, or budget which improved the efficiency of my spending. Like any tool, a budget can be used wisely or otherwise."
- Jack Hannam
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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"Most likely it’s the level of the state gas taxes. That has a great deal to do with gas prices from one state to another. In certain regions bulk gas is the same per gallon. As an example most of the gas in that region is probably refined in the Delaware river port areas. The stations then have to add their mark up and in addition their state gas tax per gallon. OOPS, missed Howard’s post below."
- David Lancaster
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Avoid the noise, buy the market and stay invested

"Alan, As to your title the S and P hit an all time high yesterday and never reached correction territory. I fear for what some investors will do when another bear returns. To quote another Jack Bogle, “Don't just do something, stand there!” As for me I used the drop in the market to move forward a few months of Roth conversions incrementally at a lower valuations. During the COVID drop I did the same buying incrementally as the market dropped. The lesson learned is market drops it creates opportunities to take advantage of. The key is not to try to figure out when the market hits bottom but to make small incremental changes as it swoons."
- David Lancaster
Read more »

AARP tax calculator changed to 2025

"Thanks for this, Bill. I used it to double check the work I had done on the IRS web site. I did notice about the $2k charitable contributions not being there yet. It was on the IRS site. Happy for you that tax day is over and hoping you are getting some well deserved R & R in the next few weeks. Chris"
- baldscreen
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Tools/calculators for monthly retirement cash flow and tax estimation

"Maybe I have missed something, but there was no listing they collect sale taxes on the site. Then, when I get the email from their billing service and I email to ask why there was a difference in the pricing, there was no reply, & the ticket didn't indicated there is sales taxes added on. Either way I think that as these tools are getting much attention and popular, their charges has been going up and up. Are the increasing pricing justifiable? I think not, they have already build out the tool, just making more profit. No Thanks."
- achnk53
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Financial Planning

"Here is a useful link to flat fee financial advisors: https://saragrillo.com/2026/01/24/flat-fee-financial-advisor-list/"
- Manoj Sharma
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One Good Call?

"I have a bit of a philosophical issue with financial advice in general. My thinking runs along the same lines as restaurants. I'd never hand over sixty dollars for a steak I can cook just as well at home, with minimal fuss, for a fraction of the price. But that same sixty dollars for a perfectly executed Peking duck? No hesitation — because that's a dish that takes three days of preparation, a specialist oven, and a chef who's done it a thousand times. You're paying for something you can't replicate yourself. The hard part is figuring out if you're paying for steak or duck."
- Mark Crothers
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Recency Bias (or: You’re Running Buggy Software)

"Thanks for throwing a couple nominations out there for consideration ;). Being in the position to look forward to a correction/bear dip or not be disappointed that it didn’t happen is a good place to be. In anticipation of no new cash coming in I’m trying a little “creating alpha” experiment with my S&P 500 index allocation. I am using VUG (approx S&P500 growth) & VTV (approx S&P500 value) for about 25% of my S&P 500 allocation. Periodic rebalancing between the two if they material diverge in performance to possibly create alpha. I don’t have a set divergence rule yet, I did rebalance several weeks back when VTV was up ~8% and VUG was down ~5%. I may find this is not worth the squeeze or may just get board with the concept. It’s mostly for curiosity without much performance risk."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"It insurance. It’s the law intentionally because lower income earners have less ability to accumulate assets and wealth. The accrual rate is a bit better for the lower income"
- R Quinn
Read more »

What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

"Thank you Dave. It's hard to fathom we moved there after the war and then to be faced with several significant coups during 1975-1976."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Social Security Survivor Benefits for Spouses

"Thank you. I suspect my own benefit (taken at 70) is greater than a survivor benefit, but you never know."
- mytimetotravel
Read more »

Nothing Like a War To Bring Folks around to Personal Financial Planning

"I like the concept "Pay yourself first". When I started practicing I set my savings rate and this determined what I could spend. This plan was simple, easy to stick with and effective. Some years later I tracked my expenses for a while and noticed that while my overall spending was under control, the amount spent proportionately on certain areas was not what I would have preferred. So I implemented a spending plan, or budget which improved the efficiency of my spending. Like any tool, a budget can be used wisely or otherwise."
- Jack Hannam
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"Most likely it’s the level of the state gas taxes. That has a great deal to do with gas prices from one state to another. In certain regions bulk gas is the same per gallon. As an example most of the gas in that region is probably refined in the Delaware river port areas. The stations then have to add their mark up and in addition their state gas tax per gallon. OOPS, missed Howard’s post below."
- David Lancaster
Read more »

Avoid the noise, buy the market and stay invested

"Alan, As to your title the S and P hit an all time high yesterday and never reached correction territory. I fear for what some investors will do when another bear returns. To quote another Jack Bogle, “Don't just do something, stand there!” As for me I used the drop in the market to move forward a few months of Roth conversions incrementally at a lower valuations. During the COVID drop I did the same buying incrementally as the market dropped. The lesson learned is market drops it creates opportunities to take advantage of. The key is not to try to figure out when the market hits bottom but to make small incremental changes as it swoons."
- David Lancaster
Read more »

AARP tax calculator changed to 2025

"Thanks for this, Bill. I used it to double check the work I had done on the IRS web site. I did notice about the $2k charitable contributions not being there yet. It was on the IRS site. Happy for you that tax day is over and hoping you are getting some well deserved R & R in the next few weeks. Chris"
- baldscreen
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

Truths

NO. 22: MONEY BUYS happiness, but this could be partly explained by a focusing illusion: When asked about their happiness, the wealthy ponder their good fortune, prompting them to say they’re happy. Moreover, research suggests happiness doesn't rise in lockstep with income. Instead, as our income increases, it takes more and more dollars to boost our happiness.

think

SIGNALING. How we spend and invest our money often has less to do with what we want—and instead it's driven more by the signals we want to send to others. Owning a hedge fund signals we’re wealthy. Driving a Prius signals we’re concerned about the environment. Going to a classical music concert tells our friends that we’re cultured.

act

PONDER WHEN to claim Social Security. Start with Mike Piper's calculator. Many folks are inclined to claim benefits as soon as they retire, but often it makes sense to wait until as late as age 70. To understand why, learn more about Social Security, including the advantages of delaying and the different strategies that couples might use.

College-bound kids?

Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

Spotlight: College

College Savings Forum

Over the last 17 years, I have been saving a modest amount each month in a 529 plan. I have been doing the same for my daughter for the past 14 years. Given the market performance and our steady contributions over time, these modest monthly contributions have grown to be a sizable amount. While I am thrilled that we should have most of our college cost covered, I’ve often wondered if the 529 plan was the best bet in saving for college.

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Kids These Days

A FEW WEEKS BACK, Jonathan Clements wrote an article reminding readers that they, too, likely made financial missteps in their younger days. His article was in response to comments by HumbleDollar readers about the perceived lack of financial discipline shown by those currently in their late teens and early 20s.
Before my recent career change, I would’ve had the same opinion as many readers. With my new job teaching accounting to undergraduates,

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Budgeting 102

IT’S BEEN A MONTH since I dropped off my twins at college, one east, one west. Each has a debit card for an account with the credit union here in our hometown. One has downloaded the credit union’s mobile app. Both are already developing their own ideas and strategies for managing college life on a shoestring budget.
I got them their debit cards some time ago. I also opened a teen account for their brother,

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Is using a 529 plan a good strategy? Heck, is college worth the expense?

A July 31, 2025, article in The New York Times triggered this post. The headline reads: Saving for College Once Felt Essential. Some Parents Are Rethinking Their Plans.
The article is primarily about 529 plans, but also about saving or attending college at all. One comment caught my eye as it questioned the value of college because it didn’t guarantee a good job. I wasn’t aware college ever guaranteed a job or anything else for that matter. 

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College in Retirement

I RECENTLY COMPLETED a course called England: From the Fall of Rome to the Norman Conquest. Before that was Books That Matter: The Federalist Papers. Okay, I’m a nerd, I’ll admit it.
Since I retired, I’ve looked for avenues to broaden and deepen my understanding of subjects that I was taught in high school and at the liberal arts college I attended. Back then, there were college courses,

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Strings Attached

WITH NO DISRESPECT TO our representatives in Congress, a new rule taking effect in January reminds me of a scene from The Jerk, an old Steve Martin movie. Playing the role of a carnival huckster, Martin shows off a wall of attractive prizes, but then narrows the choices to an impossibly small set of options.
Congress did something similar when it instituted a new rule governing 529 education savings accounts. The rule in question opens up greater flexibility in how surplus 529 funds can be used.

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Spotlight: Retzke

Taking stock

2025 was a stellar year for investors. “The S&P 500 finished the year with an 18% gain, achieving a ‘three-peat’ of double digit annual returns.” Investors who didn’t bail were rewarded. We have a larger cash/bond allocation, about 55% stocks. The stocks do the heavy lifting while the cash/bonds provides some drag, but we are thoughtful about where we park it. The conventional thinking is that idle money is inefficient. It does not compound. But we like the flexibility cash provides. It can be a buffer. For example, we made a lifestyle change in 2022. We permanently relocated, selling a condo and a RV, lived in a hotel for a month, and purchased a house. This was so I could get proper medical treatment. Over the next two years there were many hospital stays and unusual medical bills, too, totaling about $2 million, although insurance covered most of that. At the time I wasn’t certain how to make this work. I looked at the funds available and came to the realization that this is why we had saved for many years. I decided to pull funds from a Roth IRA so as to avoid a tax bite. The original “plan” was to draw from Roths after the traditional IRAs. But health factors intervened. As it turned out, the financial gyrations were easier to manage than I had anticipated. Thanks to recent market returns, all of the funds I pulled for this and for RMDs have been replenished. That was unexpected. We continue to live debt free, too. Today, there are short- and ultra-short bond funds available that pay 4.0%. This won’t grow a nest egg, but it will maintain it. It may not beat inflation either. But it does provide a buffer. What could have been a financial panic situation…
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Social Security Personal Update

There have been several posts and commentary in recent months about potential changes to social security, the consequences of the removal of the Windfall Elimination Provision, anticipated issues because of the President and DOGE, etc. I posted on May 21 that my spouse was going to schedule an appointment with the nearby social security office and file. (There are 14 in this state, and our area population is about 1.2 million). Here is how it went. 1. Wait times on the phone can be long, but the Social Security (SS) office will schedule a call-back. G used that service. 2. She was able to schedule an appointment about 5 business days in the future. 3. She did some preliminary work on the SS website and began the registration process there. 4. She brought documents with her, including two government issued photo IDs and the checking account so she could schedule ACH (automatic monthly deposit). 5. She changed her Medicare payment from ACH withdrawal from a checking account to debit from her SS monthly payment. 6. She completed the necessary documents for a spousal benefit. One issue was she didn’t have a “certified” marriage license with her. Copies will not do. She contacted the County office in which we were married and the necessary document was Fedexed (at cost to us). 7. She decided to back-file to November 2024. This resulted in a significant lump-sum amount as a one-time payment. 8. She selected her percentage automatic withholding for IRS federal tax payment. We had pre-discussed this. There are several options, ranging from 7% to 22% withholding. 9. She switched from monthly Medicare ACH withdrawal from checking to debit the SS benefit. So, how did it turn out? 1. The online calculator we had used when discussing when to file was very…
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Bengen’s updated 4% rule

This floated across my screen a couple of days ago. Bill Bengen introduced the 4% rule in 1994.  It suggested that a one may safely withdraw 4% from a portfolio in the first year of retirement and it would be likely that portfolio would last for 30 years. Bengen is publishing a new book A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More In it he updates the rule but also provides a 55/45 model portfolio.  This is my understanding: 11% U.S. large-cap stocks 11% U.S. midcap stocks 11% U.S. small-cap stocks 11% U.S. microcap stocks 11% international stocks 40% in intermediate-term U.S. government bonds 5% in cash, represented by U.S. Treasury bills Bengen states that slightly overweighting small-cap and microcap stocks could "increase [the safe withdrawal rate] maybe a quarter of a percent, which is worth it."  He acknowledges that small- and microcap-stocks are very volatile classes and should be used in moderation. My portfolio includes small caps, and I’ve always wondered what an appropriate allocation would be. With Bengen's allocation I have more info on this. The new initial safe withdrawal rate has been increased to 4.7%. In practice the SWR could be increased by the rate of inflation each year. In the article I read he also suggested that a reasonable starting point for withdrawals today would be between 5.25% and 5.5%.  This is lower than the historical average withdrawal rate of nearly 7%. Bengen acknowledged that "you're giving up a lot, but those are the circumstances we face." He was quoted "The 4.7% is still a 'once-in-a-century worst-case scenario' number," he said, and retirees "should probably be more optimistic than that." He considers current inflation to be moderate and stock market valuations are "very high." Bengen uses the Shiller CAPE ratio (Cyclically…
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The Most Cited Websites By AI Models

When we ask a question of ChatGPT or Gemini or any other AI LLMs we may wonder about the source of the information contained in the answers.  I recently read an article about this.  LLMs rely on user-generated content and as we know, not all of these web based sources are accurate and so, neither will the answers be. “According to an analysis by Semrush, LLMs like ChatGPT reference Reddit and Wikipedia the most for facts.   For geographical data, LLMs frequently cite Mapbox and OpenStreetMap.” Here’s a breakdown of citation frequency: Reddit.com 40.1% Wikipedia 26.3% Youtube.com 23.5% Yelp.com 21.0% Facebook.com 20.0% Amazon.com 18.7% Tripadvisor.com 12.5% Openstreetmap.com 11.3% Instagram.com 10.9% Mapquest.com 9.8% Walmart.com 9.3% Ebay.com 7.7% Linkedin.com 5.9% Quora.com 4.6% Homedepot.com 4.6% Yahoo.com 4.4% Etc.  
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What a “lost decade” might look like

Unusual events happen from time to time.  Since 2022 the S&P 500 has had some remarkable years.  Recently foreign stocks have also done very well.  This is a boon to retirement portfolios, and particularly welcome for those entering retirement. The opposite situation is the “lost decade” which I recently posted about.  Some say these are rare and if we are lucky the timing will be such as to have slight impact on retirees.  But fingers crossed is not a strategy.  I’ve experienced several “lost decades” and these influenced my retirement planning. There are several ways to approach this.  One is “What annual withdrawal rate can a retirement portfolio support? “  However, what really matters is “How can I generate the annual withdrawal rate I will need?”  I used the second when deciding how much to save for retirement.   In my modelling I concluded that if a retiree encounters a “lost decade” there is a real possibility they will deplete their portfolio.  I created several spreadsheets to model this.  If a lost decade occurred at the onset of retirement and the portfolio followed the S&P 500 trajectory, then using the “4% rule” the amount withdrawn would be significantly reduced. I showed this in my January 13 post. https://humbledollar.com/forum/considering-a-lost-decade-when-retirement-planning/  = This post considers the question “If a $100,000 portfolio isn’t sufficient to generate a $4,000 withdrawal throughout retirement, then what portfolio is necessary?” In the example, at a normal 4% rate, $40,000 would be withdrawn in the first 10 years of retirement, plus a small additional amount to maintain purchasing power.  If we increase the annual withdrawal by 2.45%, an amount for inflation, then in the 10th year we would withdraw 4.97% and the amount withdrawn that year would be  $5,628.74. Over a 10 year period we would withdraw a total…
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Tweaking the 4% Rule

On April 25 Morningstar published an article "Retirees: Here’s How to Tweak the 4% Rule to Protect Your Nest Egg".  It includes a link to their Report "State of Retirement Income 2024".  The report requires an email address. With recent stock gyrations I thought that their most recent look at withdrawals and retirement accounts might be helpful. Here are a few points made in the article: "Morningstar researchers have investigated and identified their latest starting safe withdrawal rate. Here’s a hint: it’s slightly lower than the previous year. " About saving for retirement, "it’s pretty straightforward as long as you start early and you’re consistent about it. But when it comes to taking your retirement portfolio and figuring out how to turn that into a paycheck for yourself, that gets much more complicated." There’s sort of a balance. You want to make sure that you’re spending enough so that you can enjoy your retirement and enjoy hobbies and travel, that kind of thing, but not spend too aggressively so that you might have to cut back later in life. "A lot of people actually end up underspending." Morningstar states that their approach is different. "We decided that instead of looking at past data, we would do something more forward-looking, using market estimates for possible future returns." Looking at the past 15 years  Morningstar says the market returns were "actually the best 15-year period for stocks that we’ve seen going back to 1970." Morningstar has reduced their return assumptions for stocks and bonds. Morningstar's analysis looks at 900 outcomes using a base case of 3.7% and "various flexible or dynamic withdrawal strategies."  These alternatives "can often lift the starting withdrawal rate." Here's a link to the article: https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/retirees-heres-how-tweak-4-rule-protect-your-nest-egg  
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