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In efficient markets, indexers outpace most active investors. Ditto for inefficient markets.

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Lonely Island (Correct Edit)

"Happens to the best of us, Mark! I see you’ve updated the post."
- DrLefty
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"You seemed obsessed with the idea of vote buying. That doesn’t motivate everything. Raising the tax rate doesn’t solve everything forever. But i agree the full burden of making SS sustainable beyond 2034 should not fall only on current workers. what politically feasible ideas are there? I favor suspending the COLA for higher earnings already retired sort of like a reverse IRMAA. But there the problem is there aren’t enough earnings in that category to make a significant difference. If you avoid being honest with people for 30 years it hard to change direction. Millions of people think Congress stole the trust money for Pete's sake."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Hidden Surcharge

"AI is too low, as the marginal tax rate can be as high as 28,000 percent on the next dollar: https://humbledollar.com/2023/04/that-28000000-tax/"
- John Yeigh
Read more »

The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

"My understanding is yes if the state specific rules are followed and the disclaimer is filed timely. Dr. Dahle's post in the above linked post lists six key general aspects for a disclaimer to be valid. I think the need to file a disclaimer could often be eliminated with appropriate planning and action during life."
- William Perry
Read more »

Financial Tension

"Curry is smart… he will figure out how to invest."
- William Housley
Read more »

Driving a Bargain

"NEVER BORROW MONEY to buy a depreciating asset." This personal finance tip is often used to dissuade folks from taking out car loans. But does a car really leave folks poorer?
When we value an asset, it’s typically thought of as its dollar value on a balance sheet. The monetary value of my car might indeed decline, and quickly at that, but it has far more usefulness than my personal balance sheet shows. When I consider my car’s true value, I think of how much it improves my life.
I made a major change in 2018, moving from Philadelphia to Scottsdale, Arizona. I landed with two suitcases, a backpack and my cat. I had a job starting in three weeks in the heart of Old Town Scottsdale—a pricey area.
In Philadelphia, I’d never needed a car. There’s great public transportation and I could get almost anywhere by walking or taking the train. If you’ve ever been to Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs, it’s a different story. It sprawls in every direction and lacks decent public transportation.
As a young professional 2,000 miles from home, I needed to travel this big expanse. I also wanted to do some exploring in the West, so I took out a loan to buy a new car.
I don’t imagine I’ll ever recoup the money I paid for the vehicle. In fact, I suspect that my car will always be asking me for more money—for maintenance and repairs—even after I’ve paid off the loan. That’s fine. My expectations are set on this because I see so much additional value in owning a car.
Monetary benefits. Old Town Scottsdale’s rents are at least 20% higher than some surrounding areas. I can live less expensively nearby as long as I can handle a 10- to 15-minute commute.
My car also provides me access to a larger pool of jobs. On top of that, I have reliable transportation, which makes me a more dependable employee. Finally, in this gig economy, a car opens up opportunities for self-employment, a side gig or temporary income during a gap in employment. This could come from signing on with services like Uber, DoorDash and Instacart.
Emotional benefits. My car is truly liberating. It can buy me time by making travel more convenient. It allows me to live where I want and gain happiness through new experiences outside of my neighborhood. The ability to go anywhere at any time is hugely appealing.
If it takes a loan to realize these benefits, I’m willing to bear that cost. I think most Americans would agree with me. Even when you’ve decided that a car is worth buying, however, another financial argument breaks out. It’s about whether it’s better to buy a new car or a used one. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"]
This is where I find the biggest ridicule from finance influencers. They advise never to buy a new car, and especially never to buy a new car with a loan. That’s because the moment you drive a new car off the dealer lot, it takes a big hit, thanks to depreciation.
Perhaps, in an ideal world, we’d all buy a good used car with cash. But that option isn’t available to many people. Moreover, even if you can afford to pay cash, there can be a good reason to buck the conventional wisdom. The benefit I’ve received from buying a new car can be summarized in one word: reliability.
A new car brings me peace of mind, knowing it’s unlikely I’ll be waiting on the side of the road for AAA. I don’t have to leave an extra hour early for work in case my car doesn’t get me there. I also knew I’d be traveling along dirt roads and across state lines to do some exploring, so reliability was nonnegotiable with my car purchase.
A new car works out well for me on another level. I’m not a car guy. I lack the understanding of how to take care of one. The new car warranty typically covers the scheduled service for the first few years. I’m happy to pay more to get that responsibility off my plate.
My goal has never been to turn around and sell my car for a decent sum when I’m done using it. Instead, I want to pull out all the value I can along the way. I’ll increase both my life experiences and my financial wealth through its use—and not by selling it at the end. Logan Murray is a solo financial advisor. His company Pocket Project offers subscription-based financial planning services to young professionals. For more financial insights, read Logan’s blog, connect with him on LinkedIn and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

The condo, HOA, senior citizen conundrum

"True in some cases, but if you can buy a $900,000 condo in one of the wealthiest town in Nj, perhaps the northeast, you likely don’t have a limited monthly budget - or shouldn’t."
- R Quinn
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Thank you, Jeff, for sharing your inspiring story. One of the greatest gifts of getting older is the ability to look back at the mountains we’ve climbed and realize—despite the doubts along the way—that we did better than we ever gave ourselves credit for."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Lonely Island (Correct Edit)

"Happens to the best of us, Mark! I see you’ve updated the post."
- DrLefty
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"You seemed obsessed with the idea of vote buying. That doesn’t motivate everything. Raising the tax rate doesn’t solve everything forever. But i agree the full burden of making SS sustainable beyond 2034 should not fall only on current workers. what politically feasible ideas are there? I favor suspending the COLA for higher earnings already retired sort of like a reverse IRMAA. But there the problem is there aren’t enough earnings in that category to make a significant difference. If you avoid being honest with people for 30 years it hard to change direction. Millions of people think Congress stole the trust money for Pete's sake."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Hidden Surcharge

"AI is too low, as the marginal tax rate can be as high as 28,000 percent on the next dollar: https://humbledollar.com/2023/04/that-28000000-tax/"
- John Yeigh
Read more »

The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

"My understanding is yes if the state specific rules are followed and the disclaimer is filed timely. Dr. Dahle's post in the above linked post lists six key general aspects for a disclaimer to be valid. I think the need to file a disclaimer could often be eliminated with appropriate planning and action during life."
- William Perry
Read more »

Financial Tension

"Curry is smart… he will figure out how to invest."
- William Housley
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 68: AS INDIVIDUAL investors, we enjoy a key advantage: While money managers risk losing their job if their short-run results are lousy, we can invest for the truly long term.

act

BUYING A CAR? Think twice before financing it through the dealership. While dealership loans are convenient, the interest rate charged will include the dealership’s markup. You can likely get a lower rate by going to a bank or credit union—or using a home equity line of credit. One warning: Interest on home equity borrowing for a car purchase is no longer tax-deductible.

Truths

NO. 20: DOLLAR-COST averaging isn’t magical—but it is worthwhile. Investing the same sum every month in stocks supposedly improves the odds of making money. But in truth, dollar-cost averaging is about investor psychology: It helps us to overcome our reluctance to invest in stocks, instills discipline and makes stock market declines more palatable.

act

ALERT U.S. EMBASSIES to your travel plans. Before leaving on a foreign trip, sign up for the State Department's free Smart Traveler Enrollment Program and detail where you’re going. The local U.S. embassy or consulate will then contact you if, say, there’s a natural disaster or terrorist incident while you’re traveling abroad—and it may be able to offer advice or help.

Forum

Manifesto

NO. 68: AS INDIVIDUAL investors, we enjoy a key advantage: While money managers risk losing their job if their short-run results are lousy, we can invest for the truly long term.

Spotlight: Borrowing

Disney or Bust

AN ARTICLE PUBLISHED in The Wall Street Journal told the story of Americans in their 30s who are spending heavily and piling on debt as we leave the pandemic behind.

One family with an income of $80,000 in Lincoln, Nebraska—where the cost of living is low, with housing costs 22% below the national average—had $20,000 in credit card debt and $160,000 in student loans.

They used stimulus checks to work down their credit card debt.

Read more »

Debt: 10 Questions

GOT DEBT? TO GET a handle on the situation and figure out whether you’re handling your loans and credit cards properly, here are 10 questions to ask:

What’s your net worth? You might have a home and sizable financial accounts. But what are you worth once you subtract all your debts?
Are you taking the necessary steps to stop thieves from borrowing money using your identity? To protect yourself, regularly check your credit reports for errors and accounts you don’t recognize,

Read more »

401k withdrawal, 0% cc balance transfer or home equity line of credit

My question is which would be better to use to pay down debt a 401k withdrawal (sell stocks) which would raise taxes (SS) at years end significantly a 0% credit card balance transfer (cost 3-5% annually) or a 9.3% home equity loan that hopefully the interest rate goes down next year.  I enjoy reading all your stories about finances and life. thank you.

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Not Your Friends

FINANCIAL FIRMS spend heavily on marketing to create a friendly, customer-first impression. But these firms aren’t your friends, at least not in the ordinary sense of the word. They make their money, fairly and legally, by providing specific services to customers.
Friendliness at a retail level keeps your capital in place, where it works for the firm’s benefit. Every once in a while, I see language that clearly expresses what they want from our “relationship.” These communications help me review where I do business,

Read more »

No Interest

THE HOUSE I GREW UP in was built in 1950 by my father, with some assistance from his best friend Joe, who was a master homebuilder by profession. After his work day as an accountant for a local hardware and lumber chain, my dad would head over to the job site and labor into the night.
My mom also provided some sweat equity, painting and even swinging a hammer at times. I was born in 1962,

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Debtors’ Prison

IT’S BEEN MORE THAN three years since my wife and I paid off the last of our consumer debt. Since then, we’ve enjoyed the benefits of a debt-free life: less stress, no interest payments and a lower cost of living.
While these reasons alone make a strong case for paying off credit card balances, car loans and other consumer debt, the true cost of borrowing goes beyond the obvious. Here are five drawbacks that I wish I’d considered before taking on debt:
1.

Read more »

Spotlight: Flack

Not Cool

SHOULD A REASONABLE real estate buyer expect the multiple listing service (MLS) to provide a reasonable description of the property being purchased? What if it doesn’t? All the previous times I’ve purchased real estate, the MLS accurately described the property I was buying. I realized that disclosures were also provided by the seller, and those specified the finer points of what was being purchased. Still, I’d come to expect a certain amount of integrity from the MLS listing itself. That all changed during my most recent real estate adventure. I signed a contract on a condo that, according to the MLS, came with a “large wine fridge.” A few weeks after signing the contract, I was again reviewing the disclosures and noticed that the large wine fridge wasn’t mentioned. The listing agent subsequently confirmed it wasn’t part of the deal, saying the wine fridge would have been part of the deal if I’d agreed to pay the list price. Now, I realize that legally the disclosures are what determines what is and isn’t part of the transaction, but I was dismayed to learn that an item so prominently mentioned in the MLS did not actually “convey,” as they say in real estate lingo. I then became concerned about whether the third space of the three-car private garage and the third of the three outdoor spaces would convey. Thankfully, they did. It also burned me that the large wine fridge would have conveyed if I paid “a full offer.” I’d never heard of such a thing. I wondered how much over asking would have enabled the seller’s Peloton to convey? I pushed my agent to go over the listing agent’s head to attain satisfaction, but the listing agent’s boss was even more obstinate. For most of my working life, I was…
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Free Money

THERE’S A LITERARY rite of passage that requires every financial blogger to write at least one article about free money. Far be it for me to break with this tradition. Titling an article “free money” will catch most readers’ attention. After all, we all want something for nothing. You know what they say: “Money found is twice as sweet as money earned.” It’s also a topic that’s a bottomless well of ideas limited only by the creativity of the writer. I will bound my creativity by limiting my ideas to those that don’t involve coffee, index funds and Roth IRAs. 1. Dispute credit card charges. Everyone knows you should dispute fraudulent credit card charges, but three years of endless travel have taught me that credit cards also offer the chance to dispute charges for unsatisfactory products and services—an opportunity most cardholders never exploit. If you pay for a product or service that you find unsatisfactory, disputing the charge may be an option. There is a gray area involving fine print I’ve never read, as well as a gray area of morality that I won’t address. Put simply, if you honestly feel wronged, dispute the charge and let fate be the arbiter. Consider two examples. First, in March 2020, I booked and prepaid for a bed at a youth hostel in New Orleans. When COVID-19 hit, I canceled my stay for obvious reasons and asked for a refund. The hostel did not close and therefore refused. I could have reviewed all of the New Orleans public health notices and the hostel’s fine print. Instead, I just disputed the charge and won. Second, I used GoDaddy to buy a domain name and hosting services for my website. When I found GoDaddy had used a bait and switch regarding its website builder, and…
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Getting Out the Vote

JERRY SEINFELD tells a story about visiting the post office and noticing a wanted poster on the wall. He looks at the poster and checks the guy standing behind him. “If it’s not him,” he says, “I feel I’ve done my part.” I own some individual stocks, so it’s that time of the year when I vote my proxies. I do the best I can at trying to understand the issues. Sometimes, I wonder whether I’ve really accomplished anything. Just like Jerry, though, when it’s all over, I feel “I’ve done my part.” When I was younger and busier, I would stack the proxies and their associated annual reports on my desk and methodically go through them, trying to give each its due and then casting my vote accordingly. Now that I’m retired and have more free time, I can’t be bothered. I use the following shortcuts to allow me to vote as efficiently—meaning as quickly—as possible: I vote for all proposals that would require an independent chairman. If I owned 100% of a company and employed a CEO, I would immediately fire him if he asked to be chair of the board. Why should a publicly owned company be any different? Having an independent chair just makes common sense from a governance perspective. How can management manage themselves? Additionally, if a CEO has such little self-confidence as to demand to also be the chair, an investor needs to wonder about his or her leadership ability. I vote against so-called classified boards, which have directors serving different term lengths. When I was employed, my performance was reviewed annually. Why should a company’s directors be any different? I don’t vote for executive pay packages that include options. Since I own shares of a company’s stock, why would I want to incentivize…
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Mind the Gap

MY WIFE WILL BE eligible for Medicare in March 2022. To better understand the process, we signed up for a webinar given by Matt, a Medigap insurance broker. Matt did a good job explaining the issues we faced, so we made an appointment to talk with him on the phone—even though he gave off a used car salesman vibe when, at the end of his presentation, he exhorted us to make an appointment before they all filled up. “Only 20 left… wait… now only 19 appointments are available,” he said at one point. Medicare only pays about 80% of medical care. We thought it would be complicated deciding how to cover the other 20%, but we may have been too pessimistic. After viewing Matt’s presentation and doing some research on our own, we quickly came to two conclusions. First, traditional Medicare plus a Medigap policy was preferable to Medicare Advantage. My wife had grown used to going to any doctor she wanted, without referrals or concerns about which tests were and weren’t covered. We were also concerned that, if she went with Medicare Advantage and her health deteriorated, she might not be able to swap back to traditional Medicare because she wouldn’t be able to obtain Medigap coverage. Quite simply, traditional Medicare plus Medigap coverage offers more complete coverage and more options. The higher cost seems worth it. Second, while there are numerous Medigap plans, only two seem to make any sense: Plans G and N. They’re almost identical, but G comes with no copays and coverage for Medicare B excess charges. I think we all understand the benefit of no copays, but the whole excess charge coverage is a little confusing. Our subsequent 30-minute appointment with Matt covered much of the above, including how you need to factor in the…
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Best Way to Sell Gold Eagles

Years ago I bought some Gold Eagles. Now with gold trading at near historic highs, I figure it may be a good time to sell. If you have sold your gold, I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts on the process, especially in regards to maximizing the sales price.
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The Draw of Cash

One of the main principles of investing is the Risk vs. Return trade-off, which according to investopedia.com: Risk vs. Return trade-off states that the potential return rises with an increase in risk. Using this principle, individuals associate low levels of uncertainty with low potential returns, and high levels of uncertainty or risk with high potential returns. It is a principle that every investor needs to understand before they buy their first stock or preferably their first broad-based low-cost index fund (BBLCIF). What I always found interesting about Risk and Return is that while the latter is easily calculated and even more easily understood, the former is a little bit of an enigma for even the most seasoned investor. As you read this I challenge you to write down the formula for Risk. I’ll give you a hint: the most basic way to measure stock market Risk is to calculate a stock’s beta. And to calculate a stock's beta you're going to need the formula for the stock market's standard deviation. I'll give you another minute to write that one down. What I'm trying to get at, is that measuring Risk is difficult. And even trying to have a basic understanding of it is almost as difficult. This is the main reason almost all investors just focus on Return, as I stated above it "is easily calculated and more easily understood." At least that is what I thought until I was recently texting with a friend. I've known my friend, let's call him "Frank," for about 20 years, ever since we bowled together in the company league. While he was a terrible bowler, he had gone quite far in the company and was a knowledgeable investor. In between frames and beers, I enjoyed discussing with him the finer points of stocks,…
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