FREE NEWSLETTER

Paying down debt offers a guaranteed return—one that typically outpaces bonds. No investment can make that claim.

Latest PostsAll Discussions »

A Wedding Too Far

"Great story let me tell you mine. We have 3 daughters but we had 6 weddings. One of the daughters the youngest got married to the same guy twice once so he could stay in country and the next was the real affair (not sure why it had to be two. So how did we get to 6 well after the 4 weddings my wife decided to do the kitchen over (wedding 5 in terms of cost) and then she decided that we were getting older so she would have the master bath reconfigured to be more handicap access ale (in fairness I broke my leg shortly after that so it did come in handy) so that makes 6 and each one cost almost the same down to the penny, happy to see we are not eating ramen noddles and tuna fish all the time."
- JJ Gonzalez II
Read more »

Financial Fraud

RECENTLY, A FELLOW—let’s call him Tom—contacted me with a distressing story of financial fraud. I’ll describe what happened then review steps you might take to prevent this same sort of thing. Tom first noticed there might be a problem when he spotted a larger-than-average withdrawal from his checking account. The payee was a 529 college savings plan. But because Tom and his wife—let’s call her Jane—have 529 accounts for their children, the transaction almost went unnoticed. Tom assumed it was a transfer into his own family’s account. But when he mentioned it to Jane, she noted that they had stopped contributing to their 529. That prompted them to investigate further. What they found was that scammers had set up a new 529 account in Tom’s name. They then initiated an electronic funds transfer to move more than $2,000 from Tom and Jane’s checking account into the new 529 set up by the thieves. The intention presumably was to then withdraw the funds from the 529, at which point the theft would become unrecoverable. How were the thieves able to initiate the transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank? This is the part that’s distressing: They took advantage of the widely-used Automated Clearing House (ACH) system. Unfortunately, this system has key weaknesses that make it susceptible to fraud like this. First, it allows funds to be “pulled” out of an account. That’s in contrast to a wire transfer, which can only be “pushed” out by someone with access to the account. So a thief would only need your name, account number and bank routing number to siphon funds from that account. And unfortunately, that information is printed on the front of every check, making it accessible to someone looking to perpetrate this type of scheme. Once the thief had the new 529 account set up in Tom’s name, it was just one simple step to initiate a transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank since the accountholder’s name was the same on both accounts. It was so seamless that if Tom hadn’t been reviewing the transactions in his account, he might never have noticed the theft. According to the FBI, losses due to cybercrime have increased from $1 billion per year to $21 billion over the past 10 years, and ACH theft is a tactic thieves are using more frequently, so it’s worth looking at strategies to help keep your accounts secure. Here are six recommendations.
  1. Secure the login to your bank account by setting up two-factor authentication. And if your bank supports it, use an authenticator app, rather than text messages, for the authentication codes. Ideally, if your bank supports it, switch to a passkey. This is a newer technology that represents a significant advance over traditional passwords. Most importantly, they aren’t vulnerable to phishing attacks. They’re also easier to use, providing one-click logins, and you can store passkeys in a password manager. For those reasons, more websites are beginning to support passkeys. I’d make the switch as soon as your bank makes them available.
  2. Set up alerts through your bank to monitor activity in your checking account. Every bank is different, but most allow you to set up email- or text-based alerts to let you know when transactions above a specified threshold are processed, or when other types of activity occur.
  3. Monitor your transactions. These days, it can be hard to keep an eye on every account. Households often have one or more bank accounts plus credit cards and electronic payment services like Venmo or Zelle. Most people realistically don’t have the time to review every account in real time. That’s why I recommend a service like Monarch or YNAB, which are web-based versions of traditional budgeting tools like Quicken. These services can pull in transactions from all your accounts and present them in a consolidated list, making review much easier. If you kept Monarch or YNAB open in a browser window on your home computer, you could scroll through recent transactions whenever you have a spare minute.
  4. To narrow the circle of people who have access to your account information, try limiting the number of paper checks you write. Especially with Zelle and Venmo as alternatives for making payments, this is getting easier. If you do write paper checks, be sure to use a gel pen and to avoid freestanding mailboxes. Those steps can help prevent a related type of fraud, as Jonathan Clements explained a few years back.
  5. Pay attention to notifications of data breaches. Unfortunately, breach announcements seem to occur so frequently that we’ve become immune to them. It’s worth paying attention, though, to understand which particular pieces of information have been stolen. If it looks like your banking information is included in a breach, it might be worth opening a new account, inconvenient as that would be.
  6. Have your guard up against unsolicited phone calls, emails or text messages. If someone is contacting you about an “account security issue,” or claims to be calling from your bank or from the IRS, be especially wary. Those are common tactics for creating a sense of urgency that can cause people to let their guard down.
What if, like Tom and Jane, you spot a fraudulent transaction in your account? Then it’s important to report it as quickly as possible. Regulation E can limit your liability, but the faster you report a suspicious transaction, the more protection it provides. Liability is limited to just $50 if a theft is reported within two business days, but that exposure increases to $500 if it’s reported later. And after 60 days, there are no guarantees. Thieves, unfortunately, don’t seem to sleep, which means that we need to be more vigilant than in the past, and need to be continuously vigilant. As personal finance author Mike Piper wrote recently, “Cybersecurity should be considered another core area of personal finance—no different from insurance planning, for instance.” Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

A bleak picture for retirement in the future?

"My calculations say married filing jointly in 2024 with MAGI of $250k would be in the 1.4x IRMAA bracket. Part B would be about $974 more per person per year in 2026 ($202.90*12*0.4)."
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

Locking it in

"Interesting. That’s a new one on me. Does that mean if you made extra payments to accelerate payoff that if you take some back, your mortgage if set back with longer to payoff than before you took the money?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

Behind The Finery

"Scott, we're still handling our side of the wedding — currently running about 15% over the budget we set for our daughter. I've gotten pretty good at the silent head-shake-and-sigh combo. It doesn't fix anything, but it helps."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

The Economy of Expectations

"So you rode your bike past my house. 😁"
- W.D. Housley
Read more »

Taking It With You

DEEP DOWN INSIDE, I want to be the richest person in the graveyard.  I retired at age 62, confident in our financial plan to survive market fluctuations. We saved over 25% of our income for nearly three decades. Perhaps a bit too much, but we lived well and always had sufficient funds to raise a family, maintain our household, and put our children through postgraduate education. If anything, our retirement spending level is conservative, based on a 40 year time frame for both my wife and I. We have a slightly nuanced financial plan. Suffice to say it is reassuring to know that we are beyond financial security if we simply maintain an inflation adjusted 4% withdrawal rate. Indeed, calculations suggested we could double our pre-retirement budget, with no worries or loss of sleep. Risk be damned! Slowly, we made a conscious decision to spend more. At first it was tough to break old habits. I mean, frugality runs deep in my immediate family. You could use my brother and I as chromosomal templates in a genetic search to discover the frugality gene.  My wife and I now go out for coffee without blinking an eye at paying nearly 6 bucks for a cup of Joe (plus tip). We don’t hesitate to escape the Houston heat by scarfing 5 dollar a scoop ice cream. We no longer plan our restaurant outings according to Happy Hour schedules or local senior discounts.  Even so, three years into retirement, our annual spending remains well below what our financial plan says we can safely afford.  Time to up the ante. We bought season tickets to the symphony and added a dinner date before the performance. We took international vacations twice a year, exploring new countries and cultures. We drove to national parks and treated ourselves to overnights in hotels instead of motels. We gifted our children, with hopes they would bolster their own long-term savings. Gosh, we even made significant charitable gifts to institutions we only previously dreamed of supporting.  Spending is easy. Spending wisely is a challenge. Ironically, the strong stock market since our retirement has made it remarkably difficult to spend our money as initially planned. It sounds counter intuitive, but let me explain.  Our retirement portfolio allocation has a stock to bond ratio of 75:25.  The stock component primarily matches total market returns. Specifically, our stock component has grown more than 65% since we retired. Because of this, we put aside 10 years of safer funds (bonds and cash equivalents) to weather any potential market storm. We successfully navigated the immediate sequence of return risk (SORR) hurdle, that pesky danger of facing a poor investment market performance in earliest years of retirement.  We feel both blessed and safe. We sleep well at night. Our financial calculators now indicate that we can spend even more than original predictions. Yet that realization is causing me angst. After all, we spent a lifetime saving, scrimping and sacrificing to reach this point. Indeed, we value the concepts of avoiding excess, of seeking value and purpose in purchases. Our goals were never to impress the neighbors, but rather be content and grateful with what we have.   I want people to know I had a choice about how I spent my accumulated dollars. I chose a life of frugality, questioning everything I purchased. Do I really need that new phone? My current one makes calls, surfs the web, and navigates when I need directions.  Do I need a new car? My dented 11 year old Honda gets me safely to my destinations. Shall I purchase the kayak I’ve been eyeing, or simply rent one for the two times a year I brave the waters?  Perhaps the real measure of a successful retirement is not how much money remains at the end, but whether those resources were used in ways that enriched the lives of others and brought meaning to our own. Financial independence now gives us choices, and a freedom after decades of disciplined saving. It is okay if I leave this world with more than enough funds still in the bank. There are values I learned along the way; those of prudence, generosity, gratitude, and the quiet confidence that comes from living well below one's means. In the end, wealth is simply a tool; character is the true legacy. Perhaps the goal isn't to die with the largest portfolio, but to know that every dollar reflected the values by which we chose to live. Therefore, if I can’t spend it all according to my values, I guess I’m okay with being the one of the richest men in the graveyard.  Jeffrey K. Actor, PhD, was a professor at a major medical school in Houston for more than 25 years, serving as an academic researcher with interests in how immune responses function to fight pathogenic diseases. Jeff’s retirement goals are to write short science fiction stories, volunteer in the community and spend time in his garden. Check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

State Farm Dividend

"Good point re: the Umbrella policy. Would you kindly share who you’re with? Ty"
- Scott Dailey
Read more »

The best state to retire? Take a close look.

"Finances, taxes and such were not a consideration. Only being near family which in our case all are within an hour drive."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Make the Attic Great Again

"A Humble example for HumbleDollar 😉 My cluttered attic awaits me….. 🤣"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

The Intentional Spendthrift

"Gotcha. Yes, the coast line is spectacular. I thought it was cool standing at that point on the continent. We had a memorable/fun lunch in a nearby beach town after visiting the point. Money well spent."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

A Wedding Too Far

"Great story let me tell you mine. We have 3 daughters but we had 6 weddings. One of the daughters the youngest got married to the same guy twice once so he could stay in country and the next was the real affair (not sure why it had to be two. So how did we get to 6 well after the 4 weddings my wife decided to do the kitchen over (wedding 5 in terms of cost) and then she decided that we were getting older so she would have the master bath reconfigured to be more handicap access ale (in fairness I broke my leg shortly after that so it did come in handy) so that makes 6 and each one cost almost the same down to the penny, happy to see we are not eating ramen noddles and tuna fish all the time."
- JJ Gonzalez II
Read more »

Financial Fraud

RECENTLY, A FELLOW—let’s call him Tom—contacted me with a distressing story of financial fraud. I’ll describe what happened then review steps you might take to prevent this same sort of thing. Tom first noticed there might be a problem when he spotted a larger-than-average withdrawal from his checking account. The payee was a 529 college savings plan. But because Tom and his wife—let’s call her Jane—have 529 accounts for their children, the transaction almost went unnoticed. Tom assumed it was a transfer into his own family’s account. But when he mentioned it to Jane, she noted that they had stopped contributing to their 529. That prompted them to investigate further. What they found was that scammers had set up a new 529 account in Tom’s name. They then initiated an electronic funds transfer to move more than $2,000 from Tom and Jane’s checking account into the new 529 set up by the thieves. The intention presumably was to then withdraw the funds from the 529, at which point the theft would become unrecoverable. How were the thieves able to initiate the transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank? This is the part that’s distressing: They took advantage of the widely-used Automated Clearing House (ACH) system. Unfortunately, this system has key weaknesses that make it susceptible to fraud like this. First, it allows funds to be “pulled” out of an account. That’s in contrast to a wire transfer, which can only be “pushed” out by someone with access to the account. So a thief would only need your name, account number and bank routing number to siphon funds from that account. And unfortunately, that information is printed on the front of every check, making it accessible to someone looking to perpetrate this type of scheme. Once the thief had the new 529 account set up in Tom’s name, it was just one simple step to initiate a transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank since the accountholder’s name was the same on both accounts. It was so seamless that if Tom hadn’t been reviewing the transactions in his account, he might never have noticed the theft. According to the FBI, losses due to cybercrime have increased from $1 billion per year to $21 billion over the past 10 years, and ACH theft is a tactic thieves are using more frequently, so it’s worth looking at strategies to help keep your accounts secure. Here are six recommendations.
  1. Secure the login to your bank account by setting up two-factor authentication. And if your bank supports it, use an authenticator app, rather than text messages, for the authentication codes. Ideally, if your bank supports it, switch to a passkey. This is a newer technology that represents a significant advance over traditional passwords. Most importantly, they aren’t vulnerable to phishing attacks. They’re also easier to use, providing one-click logins, and you can store passkeys in a password manager. For those reasons, more websites are beginning to support passkeys. I’d make the switch as soon as your bank makes them available.
  2. Set up alerts through your bank to monitor activity in your checking account. Every bank is different, but most allow you to set up email- or text-based alerts to let you know when transactions above a specified threshold are processed, or when other types of activity occur.
  3. Monitor your transactions. These days, it can be hard to keep an eye on every account. Households often have one or more bank accounts plus credit cards and electronic payment services like Venmo or Zelle. Most people realistically don’t have the time to review every account in real time. That’s why I recommend a service like Monarch or YNAB, which are web-based versions of traditional budgeting tools like Quicken. These services can pull in transactions from all your accounts and present them in a consolidated list, making review much easier. If you kept Monarch or YNAB open in a browser window on your home computer, you could scroll through recent transactions whenever you have a spare minute.
  4. To narrow the circle of people who have access to your account information, try limiting the number of paper checks you write. Especially with Zelle and Venmo as alternatives for making payments, this is getting easier. If you do write paper checks, be sure to use a gel pen and to avoid freestanding mailboxes. Those steps can help prevent a related type of fraud, as Jonathan Clements explained a few years back.
  5. Pay attention to notifications of data breaches. Unfortunately, breach announcements seem to occur so frequently that we’ve become immune to them. It’s worth paying attention, though, to understand which particular pieces of information have been stolen. If it looks like your banking information is included in a breach, it might be worth opening a new account, inconvenient as that would be.
  6. Have your guard up against unsolicited phone calls, emails or text messages. If someone is contacting you about an “account security issue,” or claims to be calling from your bank or from the IRS, be especially wary. Those are common tactics for creating a sense of urgency that can cause people to let their guard down.
What if, like Tom and Jane, you spot a fraudulent transaction in your account? Then it’s important to report it as quickly as possible. Regulation E can limit your liability, but the faster you report a suspicious transaction, the more protection it provides. Liability is limited to just $50 if a theft is reported within two business days, but that exposure increases to $500 if it’s reported later. And after 60 days, there are no guarantees. Thieves, unfortunately, don’t seem to sleep, which means that we need to be more vigilant than in the past, and need to be continuously vigilant. As personal finance author Mike Piper wrote recently, “Cybersecurity should be considered another core area of personal finance—no different from insurance planning, for instance.” Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

A bleak picture for retirement in the future?

"My calculations say married filing jointly in 2024 with MAGI of $250k would be in the 1.4x IRMAA bracket. Part B would be about $974 more per person per year in 2026 ($202.90*12*0.4)."
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

Locking it in

"Interesting. That’s a new one on me. Does that mean if you made extra payments to accelerate payoff that if you take some back, your mortgage if set back with longer to payoff than before you took the money?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

Behind The Finery

"Scott, we're still handling our side of the wedding — currently running about 15% over the budget we set for our daughter. I've gotten pretty good at the silent head-shake-and-sigh combo. It doesn't fix anything, but it helps."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

The Economy of Expectations

"So you rode your bike past my house. 😁"
- W.D. Housley
Read more »

Taking It With You

DEEP DOWN INSIDE, I want to be the richest person in the graveyard.  I retired at age 62, confident in our financial plan to survive market fluctuations. We saved over 25% of our income for nearly three decades. Perhaps a bit too much, but we lived well and always had sufficient funds to raise a family, maintain our household, and put our children through postgraduate education. If anything, our retirement spending level is conservative, based on a 40 year time frame for both my wife and I. We have a slightly nuanced financial plan. Suffice to say it is reassuring to know that we are beyond financial security if we simply maintain an inflation adjusted 4% withdrawal rate. Indeed, calculations suggested we could double our pre-retirement budget, with no worries or loss of sleep. Risk be damned! Slowly, we made a conscious decision to spend more. At first it was tough to break old habits. I mean, frugality runs deep in my immediate family. You could use my brother and I as chromosomal templates in a genetic search to discover the frugality gene.  My wife and I now go out for coffee without blinking an eye at paying nearly 6 bucks for a cup of Joe (plus tip). We don’t hesitate to escape the Houston heat by scarfing 5 dollar a scoop ice cream. We no longer plan our restaurant outings according to Happy Hour schedules or local senior discounts.  Even so, three years into retirement, our annual spending remains well below what our financial plan says we can safely afford.  Time to up the ante. We bought season tickets to the symphony and added a dinner date before the performance. We took international vacations twice a year, exploring new countries and cultures. We drove to national parks and treated ourselves to overnights in hotels instead of motels. We gifted our children, with hopes they would bolster their own long-term savings. Gosh, we even made significant charitable gifts to institutions we only previously dreamed of supporting.  Spending is easy. Spending wisely is a challenge. Ironically, the strong stock market since our retirement has made it remarkably difficult to spend our money as initially planned. It sounds counter intuitive, but let me explain.  Our retirement portfolio allocation has a stock to bond ratio of 75:25.  The stock component primarily matches total market returns. Specifically, our stock component has grown more than 65% since we retired. Because of this, we put aside 10 years of safer funds (bonds and cash equivalents) to weather any potential market storm. We successfully navigated the immediate sequence of return risk (SORR) hurdle, that pesky danger of facing a poor investment market performance in earliest years of retirement.  We feel both blessed and safe. We sleep well at night. Our financial calculators now indicate that we can spend even more than original predictions. Yet that realization is causing me angst. After all, we spent a lifetime saving, scrimping and sacrificing to reach this point. Indeed, we value the concepts of avoiding excess, of seeking value and purpose in purchases. Our goals were never to impress the neighbors, but rather be content and grateful with what we have.   I want people to know I had a choice about how I spent my accumulated dollars. I chose a life of frugality, questioning everything I purchased. Do I really need that new phone? My current one makes calls, surfs the web, and navigates when I need directions.  Do I need a new car? My dented 11 year old Honda gets me safely to my destinations. Shall I purchase the kayak I’ve been eyeing, or simply rent one for the two times a year I brave the waters?  Perhaps the real measure of a successful retirement is not how much money remains at the end, but whether those resources were used in ways that enriched the lives of others and brought meaning to our own. Financial independence now gives us choices, and a freedom after decades of disciplined saving. It is okay if I leave this world with more than enough funds still in the bank. There are values I learned along the way; those of prudence, generosity, gratitude, and the quiet confidence that comes from living well below one's means. In the end, wealth is simply a tool; character is the true legacy. Perhaps the goal isn't to die with the largest portfolio, but to know that every dollar reflected the values by which we chose to live. Therefore, if I can’t spend it all according to my values, I guess I’m okay with being the one of the richest men in the graveyard.  Jeffrey K. Actor, PhD, was a professor at a major medical school in Houston for more than 25 years, serving as an academic researcher with interests in how immune responses function to fight pathogenic diseases. Jeff’s retirement goals are to write short science fiction stories, volunteer in the community and spend time in his garden. Check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

State Farm Dividend

"Good point re: the Umbrella policy. Would you kindly share who you’re with? Ty"
- Scott Dailey
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 55: THE BEST PART of spending is often the anticipation, while the purchase itself usually disappoints. Buying a new car? Plan far ahead, so you enjoy a long period of eager anticipation.

Truths

NO. 117: TREASURY bonds offer lower yields than corporates, but they come with a key advantage: They usually hold up better when the stock market declines. Bear markets are often triggered by a weakening economy. That leads to falling interest rates and concerns about the safety of corporate bonds, bolstering the price of Treasury securities.

think

DISPOSITION EFFECT. Investors tend to sell their winners too quickly and hang on to losers too long, often hurting their returns and generating unnecessarily large tax bills. Blame all this on our loss aversion: We’re anxious to turn paper gains into cash profits, before they slip away. Meanwhile, with losing investments, we hope to “get even, then get out.”

humans

NO. 61: WE'RE anxious to help family and friends—but that desire can blind us to the risks involved. Think about things like lending money to a family member who doesn’t pay us back or investing in a friend’s business that fails. In such situations, we can not only lose significant money, but also the relationship involved is often irreparably damaged.

Help others

Manifesto

NO. 55: THE BEST PART of spending is often the anticipation, while the purchase itself usually disappoints. Buying a new car? Plan far ahead, so you enjoy a long period of eager anticipation.

Spotlight: Saving

Tax Gain Harvesting

MANY PEOPLE ARE familiar with tax loss harvesting, where you sell a losing security/ETF and rebuy a similar, not identical, security/ETF.
But often we don’t really think about the opposite side of the coin: sell a winning security/ETF and rebuy the exact same, or a different, security/ETF.
That strategy is called tax gain harvesting, and because it’s a gain, the wash sale rule doesn’t apply.
 
Execution
Long-term capital gains can be taxed at 0% depending on your income.

Read more »

Cash On Hand

In addition to my dad, my mom wanted someone else to know of a stash of cash she had hidden in the hem of the bedroom curtains. A fall resulted in a hospital stay and rehab for mom, and my dad needed to move in with me due to his health. I went upstairs to retrieve mom’s mad money and found an envelope with 70 neatly stacked $100 bills.
A few years later my mother in law was forced from her condo by a fire.

Read more »

Navigating the Unknowns of Financial Decisions

WHEN IT COMES to financial decisions, there are, as I’ve argued before, two answers to every question: what the calculator says, and how you feel about it. There’s a fly in the ointment, though: Calculator answers might appear to be based in logic, but they’re still imperfect.
Why?
Ian Wilson, a former executive at General Electric, explained it this way: “No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all knowledge is about the past,

Read more »

Let’s Stir Up the Bee’s Nest Again- Another Way of Calculating Net Worth

Here is an interesting article I just read on my weekly Boldin (previously New Retirement) newsletter.

Read more »

Deeply Rooted

JUNE MARKS THREE years since my mum passed from complications of vascular dementia. It was a tough couple of years, watching her mind slowly fail and her world shrink a little more with each passing month. Anyone who has cared for a loved one in the late stages of dementia will know how difficult and disjointed even the simplest conversation becomes. The loops, the confusion, the frustration of trying to redirect someone you love from a thought they can no longer find their way out of.

Read more »

Path to Retirement

SOME FRIENDS WERE recently discussing their investment performance. I couldn’t contribute to the conversation—because I have no idea what our investment returns have been.
The fact is, I don’t find performance information all that valuable, plus it’s relatively hard to calculate since you have to account for both price changes and dividend or interest payments. To be sure, investment returns are useful if you’re looking to determine whether a mutual fund manager is adding returns in excess of a benchmark index,

Read more »

Spotlight: Tomamichel

The hard work of optimism

I'm an optimist. And proudly so. Perhaps too optimistic, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. Having this mindset and reflecting on how I engage with money, and the world more broadly, got me thinking of two things. Firstly, it takes a lot of work to remain an optimist in the modern media landscape. The default position of financial media is that bad news is either here or right around the corner. If the market is down, that's a disaster. If the market is up, it's probably a bubble and will crash soon. No media outlet ever made money with an article entitled "Everything looks OK at the moment". So I find myself looking for information, and in particular hard data, that zooms out from today's minutia and provides a broader, longer term perspective. As an example, current "AI bubble" talk might suggest that valuations are crazy high. But looking at P/E ratios for the last 20 years give a more sober story. Yep, higher than normal. But well below 2002 and 2008. So we are probably due a correction, maybe a bear market that lasts a year or two. But a catastrophic crash? Perhaps a bit less likely. Outside of finance, I also work hard to find long term, robust data that gives a more complete view of the world than today's headlines. My absolute favourite is "Factfulness" by Hans Rosling et. al. This is an amazing book that shows how humankind is progressing in so many ways. Mr. Rosling, a Professor of International Health and now deceased,  recognizes that many things in the world are still not great, but he often notes that things can be "bad but getting better". And this books shows that we are getting better by so many measures. There is also a…
Read more »

Choices, choices everywhere

Having a choice is a wonderful thing. Something that I suspect many of us take for granted. Which vocation to pursue. Which meal to order at a restaurant. Which car to buy. To even have the luxury of a choice means we are in a very fortunate position, relative to so many in the world. And with every choice, we actually make two decisions - what we accept, and what we reject. I was pondering this whilst reading an old article by Mr. Quinn as he wrestled with the logic of purchasing a Bentley SUV. Some luxury car owners will have such abundant wealth that the purchase will just mean a slightly lower inheritance to their heirs. So the choice is relatively easy and with little impact. But I suspect for many of those driving their dream luxury vehicle, they have made the choice of a car, and rejected some financial benefits that they might otherwise enjoyed. Where I live, I would be happy to bet you $1,000 that we won't see a Bentley SUV this year. But motor vehicles still seem to be imbued with status. A fully optioned Ford Ranger or Toyota Hilux, or maybe a 300 Series Toyota Landcruiser, will certainly generate lots of comments around town. And everyone that purchases a 300 Series Landcruiser for about A$110,000 has spent about 1.5 times the median annual Australian income. The 300 Series is an amazing vehicle. Powerful, comfortable, high towing capacity. But you have spent 1.5 times the Australian median income! That is a lot of money that you have chosen to use for owning a motor car, and you have therefore rejected lots of other things. That money could have been invested for retirement, funding education, family holidays, charitable donations or myriad other things. Personally, family holidays,…
Read more »

Perfection, enemy of good

Like most people, I'll get to feeling overwhelmed. Too many choices, too much complexity, just too much. Once the overwhelm kicks in, there are two ways forward; take a big deep breath and calmly work through the issue, or simply put the whole thing aside. I would like to think that I do more of the former, but as a human being, sometimes it's the latter. And it worries me that when financial advice is broadcast to a wide audience, the vast majority will feel their heads spinning. Like most people here as part of the Humble Dollar community, I would like to think that I've got a good grasp of the basics. But when the discussion turns to tax efficiency, sequence of return risk, inflation hedges and myriad other topics, I can be left feeling a little dazed. So I can just imagine how Joe or Janet Average might feel trying to get their head around these issues. Once Janet or Joe is feeling thoroughly confused, I suspect that it all gets too hard and they take no action to improve their financial situation. In fact, they may even do the opposite and gravitate to a seemingly simple scheme that is "too good to be true", and destroys their financial health. Specifically for retirement preparation, I tend to think that society as a whole would be well served with a very simple approach. Something like: - Put 12% of your wage, or as close as you can possibly get, into a target date fund. - Keep doing this until retirement age. - Once in retirement, always have 3-7 years worth of spending into a high yield savings account. Avoid topping this up on years when your index funds are down. - Keep the remainder in a suitable mix of…
Read more »

The beauty of simplicity …. I wish I wrote this

Every now and then I read an article and think "Wow, I wish had written than". I'm sure I'm not alone. Recently I came across this article from Safal Niveshak, which is part tribue to Jonathan Clements, and part ode to simplictiy. https://www.safalniveshak.com/money-is-simple/?fbclid=IwY2xjawNPxMNleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETE0WmJIcnB0WFdRZkdtcXZlAR5I85UmEukeEOKPPGMj0xtbln_1F4ZlK9rbgR12UcZw2ZfVxA8DSFkxLvsDhA_aem_GzkF1PDZcUEoAnf5k39DFg My favourite passage: "A simple equity fund, a fixed-income option, and plain insurance are enough for most of us. But the industry thrives on multiplying choice because that’s how assets are gathered. Each new fund or product adds jargon, adds fees, and adds confusion. Bad for the buyer, but wonderful for the seller!" We might argue a little about the details, but I wholeheartedly agree with the spirit of the article. After reading this article, I was keen to see what else Niveshak has written. Somewhat ironically, the homepage of his website screams "Pick winning stocks using my free, automated stock analysis Excel" I'm not sure this really aligns with the aim of simplicity! However, the article remains a great read. Good day to you all.  
Read more »

Close but not quite

Nothing like Christmas and the rolling of one year into the next for a little reflection. A chance to think a little more broadly than the daily minutia. And to catch up with friends and family that we haven't seen for a while. For me, this included a lot of us in our early fifties. I sensed a common theme in the discussions - everyone seems pretty sick of striving for a promotion or more money. We didn't talk specifically about retirement savings, but I got the impression that everyone had a pretty good level of comfort about being "on track". Our retirement saving scheme in Australia only allows withdrawals from age 60, and the aged pension kicks in at 67. So unless you're a very rare individual with significant savings outside of our retirement scheme, work will continue until to at least 60, maybe longer. So here we sit, roughly a decade from hanging up our boots. The drive to earn more and save more has faded somewhat - why bust ourselves when it will likely have little impact on the timing or quality of our retirement? I got a real sense from others of something that I've been feeling lately - shifting from a mindset of going above and beyond, striving for greater and greater things, to an approach of really looking to enjoy life more and be less focused on what happens from "9 to 5". This shift should be easy - but decades of dedication becomes a hard habit to break. Bringing this back to the HD realm, I feel like the next ten years will see many of my contemporaries embracing a shift towards retirement. Using all our annual leave, taking more holidays, less overtime, more time spent on things that enhance our lives. And…
Read more »

Success, from another angle

Every now and then I come across an idea that is immediately both interesting and "feels right". I recently came across one such idea in a podcast from Tim Hartford, his "Cautionary Tales" episode about Tony Hsieh, the billionaire CEO of Zappos. The concept is "obluiqity", that the best way to actually reach a goal is often to not focus directly upon that goal. The term was coined by the economist Professor Sir John Kay, who noticed that often when companies had a focus purely on profit, they were not that profitable. Regularly they failed and were sold off or went bankrupt. However when a company focused on being outstanding at providing their particular product or service, they were often far more financially successful. As Mr. Hartford explained the idea of obliquity, I could see it in so many aspects of my own life. I never had any ambitions during my 20 year career as an engineer. I just got out of bed every morning and did the very best I could that day. That lead to a pretty successful career. Then I set out to run a small business with my Dad. We both just fell into that situation, and we had no plans for growth or profitability. We just simply provided the best customer service we could each day. And that worked out pretty well also - better than either of us expected. From a personal finance perspective, I was reflecting after a visit with our financial planner about how we ended up in our current situation. We never had a plan for retiring at any particular age or having a certain amount in our investments. But it all worked out OK. I really was a bit puzzled - "how did we end up here?". I think that…
Read more »