A Modest Proposal
Adam M. Grossman | Jan 2, 2022
LOOKING BACK OVER the past two years, one word comes to mind: extreme. It’s been a period of extremes in the market and the economy. Many have benefitted, but we’ve also seen excesses that aren’t necessarily healthy—from the rise in NFTs to the craze in SPACs to the boom in day trading. That’s why, as you look ahead to the coming year, the theme I recommend is moderation. Here are six ways you can apply this notion to your finances: Shiny objects. Among other things, this category includes the growth of meme stocks and the proliferation of cryptocurrencies. Apparently, there are now more than 8,000 currencies. The gains in these investments have resulted in a fair amount of FOMO—fear of missing out—among investors. Nonetheless, as you might guess, my recommendation is to continue to keep things simple, tuning out the noise and sticking with less volatile choices. I recognize that, in the middle of a market boom, someone urging caution risks sounding overly conservative. That’s why I think the recent decline in some of the most highflying investments, such as the ARK Innovation ETF, is instructive. In 2020, the fund rose 157%, easily beating the overall market. But last year, it dropped almost 24%, trailing the broad U.S. market by 49 percentage points. If you’ve been feeling any amount of FOMO yourself, that’s a figure to keep in mind. The lesson: The overall stock market is volatile enough, so why seek out even more risk? Instead, seek moderation. Politics. To be sure, the political environment today is highly partisan. Still, and maybe surprisingly, there are some similarities between the parties—at least in terms of economic policy. President Trump appointed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for example, and President Biden reappointed him. Congress—under Republicans in 2020 and under Democrats in 2021—supplied stimulus to the economy when it needed it most. The similarities may end there. Nonetheless, I see…
Read more » Many Happy Returns
Adam M. Grossman | Apr 14, 2019
AS THE OLD SAYING goes, there are lies, damned lies and statistics. And then there’s investment performance, which may deserve a category all its own. This topic came to mind recently when I saw a press release heralding the accomplishments of a retired nonprofit executive. Among the claims: that he had doubled the organization's endowment. This struck me as impressive—until I considered it more critically. What did it mean that he had doubled the endowment? Did it mean that he was a brilliant fundraiser? Was it the endowment manager who was brilliant? Did the executive’s tenure coincide with a bull market that would have doubled any endowment? In isolation, I realized, it was impossible to judge. As individual investors, we are bombarded with claims about investment performance—and it can be hard to make sense of it all. To help you navigate the numbers, here’s a five-step guide to interpreting investment performance. Step 1: Understand the sources of growth The first step is to grasp the basic math of an investment account. It looks like this: Beginning balance on Jan. 1 Plus increases in the value of your investments—or minus any decreases Plus interest and dividends paid by your investments Plus deposits Minus withdrawals Minus investment fees Equals ending balance on Dec. 31 Though this won't show up on your statement, you should also subtract the taxes generated by your investments. That’ll give you the most realistic picture of your results. Step 2: Isolate your investment returns Intuitively, the above formula makes sense, but it's easy to be misled. Suppose your portfolio grew from $100,000 to $120,000 over the course of a year. On the surface, it isn't obvious how much of that came from investment growth and how much came from your own contributions. Of course, if you didn't contribute anything…
Read more » Shining Moment
Adam M. Grossman | Mar 31, 2024
GOLD REACHED A NEW high last week, climbing above $2,200 for the first time. Year-to-date, gold is up 8% and, since the end of 2021, it’s gained more than 20%, outpacing the S&P 500. This raises two questions: Can we expect the rally to continue? And does gold deserve a place in your portfolio? To answer these questions, let’s start by looking at the drivers of the recent rally. The first factor is interest rates. While rates are still elevated, and the Federal Reserve has yet to cut its benchmark rate, it’s indicated its intention to do so soon. As a result, other rates have already started to drop. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has edged down from almost 5% in October to 4.2% today. How do interest rates impact the price of gold? To understand the connection, think about it from the point of view of an investor with cash to invest. Investments are, in a sense, all in competition with each other for investors’ dollars. Because gold doesn’t produce any income, it becomes relatively less attractive when investors can earn more elsewhere. When a simple U.S. government bond offers nearly 5%, gold looks much less appealing. But when interest rates start to come down, the scales begin to tilt back, and that’s what we’ve seen recently. Another factor is geopolitical instability. There’s Russia’s ongoing attack on Ukraine, and terrorists seem to be striking with increasing frequency around the world, with attacks recently in Israel, Russia, Turkey, South Korea and Pakistan. Terrorists have also been attacking cargo ships off the coast of Yemen, disrupting a key global shipping lane. Uncertainty like this makes gold relatively more attractive, because it offers a safe haven that’s independent of any country or currency. There are other reasons, too, for gold’s…
Read more » Underwater Overseas
Adam M. Grossman | Oct 6, 2024
IS IT WORTH OWNING international stocks? There’s far from universal agreement. The traditional argument for investing outside the U.S. is straightforward: diversification—since domestic and international stocks don’t move in lockstep, and sometimes diverge significantly. At the same time, however, international stocks have lagged behind their U.S. counterparts for so many years that it’s been trying the patience of even the most tenacious investors. Domestic stocks have outpaced international stocks in eight of the past 10 years. On average, over that period, the U.S. market has returned 12.3% a year, while the most commonly referenced index of international stocks has delivered 4.6% annually. On a cumulative basis, domestic stocks have more than tripled, gaining a cumulative 219%, while international stocks have gained just 57%. That’s enough to make any reasonable person question the value of investing outside the U.S. Though the long-term data indicate a benefit to diversifying, we need to be cautious in using the past as a guide to the future. The economist John Maynard Keynes commented that, “In the long run, we are all dead.” So why, in the face of recent data, would anyone stick with international stocks? Below are five reasons I still recommend international holdings. 1. Performance. Despite Keynes’s quip about the long run, the reality is that you don’t have to go back too far to find periods when international stocks were doing quite well. Most notably, in the years after the dot-com market crash in 2000, international stocks held up much better. If you’d been in retirement at the time and relying on your portfolio for monthly withdrawals, that would have been a great benefit. One challenge in assessing international stocks—which contributes to the debate around them—is that historical data on markets outside the U.S. is limited. Reliable figures on U.S. shares go…
Read more » Blame Game
Adam M. Grossman | Feb 9, 2025
FIFTY YEARS AGO, when the first index funds were getting started, critics wasted no time attacking the idea. They called it “un-American” and a “sure path to mediocrity.” But over time, indexing has grown to the point where it now accounts for more than half of all U.S. mutual fund assets. Last year, research firm Morningstar declared that “index funds have officially won.” But this victory seems to have only increased the level of criticism. In an interview last year, David Einhorn, a longtime hedge fund manager, argued that markets are “fundamentally broken” and that passive investing—that is, index funds—are the cause. Here’s how he explained it: As more investors go the route of indexing, the result is that more active managers close up shop. That, in turn, means that fewer research analysts are following individual stocks. In Einhorn’s words, there is now, as a result, “complete apathy” in certain parts of the market. Many smaller companies, Einhorn says, are almost entirely overlooked. “There’s entire segments now… where there’s literally nobody paying any attention.” That’s because the remaining active managers tend to focus their energies on larger companies. Now, even when small companies issue positive news, Einhorn says, their stock prices often don’t react because there aren’t enough investors following them. “These companies could announce almost anything other than a sale of the company and nobody would notice.” This is a problem, Einhorn says, because he feels it’s caused share prices in many cases to become distorted. The large stocks that dominate the top end of the market—Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and so forth—continue to rise because they’re so visible. But lesser-known companies can see their stocks stagnate even when they’re doing well. Einhorn quotes a colleague, who liked to say that, “a bargain that remains a bargain is no bargain.”…
Read more » Follow the Fed
Adam M. Grossman | Oct 18, 2020
STOCKS WENT INTO a freefall earlier this year, as I’m sure you recall. But all of a sudden, on March 23, everything changed. The market turned around and, just as quickly as it had dropped, it rebounded. Remarkably, the U.S. stock market is now in positive territory for the year. What happened on March 23? The situation with the virus didn’t get any better. And it wasn’t Congress or the White House. What happened was that the Federal Reserve issued a statement. In that statement, it announced that it would use its “full range of tools” to help rescue the economy. And, just like that, both the stock and bond markets turned positive and haven’t looked back since. But for all the Fed’s power, it’s a somewhat inscrutable entity and not well understood. Perhaps that’s why, at the end of August, when the Fed announced revisions to a document some refer to as the Fed’s “constitution,” it didn’t receive nearly as much attention as it deserved. That document is called the "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy." While that might sound arcane, it’s an important document to understand because of the Fed’s enormous power to move markets. By way of background, the Fed first created this policy document in 2012 in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It describes in straightforward terms how the Fed sees its mandate. Since 2012, the Fed—despite changes in leadership—has reaffirmed this same document each year. But this summer, as the economy grappled with the impact of the coronavirus, Fed officials realized that it was due for an update. These were the key changes: Employment. The Fed’s dual mandate has always included both controlling inflation and maintaining full employment—and it has always stated them in that order. But in the updated document, the Fed…
Read more »
What is the right percentage?
R Quinn | Aug 9, 2026
For most retirees, the greatest fear is not death—it is running out of money before they die.
Matt Halperin | Aug 6, 2026
Medicare Advantage Part C — Not too soon to start planning for 2027
R Quinn | Aug 11, 2026
Can a Value fund also be a Growth fund?
Harold Tynes | Aug 11, 2026
Roth Conversions and Taxes
ArticleJohn Urban | Aug 8, 2026
Risk and Taxes
ArticleAdam M. Grossman | Aug 8, 2026
“Gerontocracy” in America
Chris Rush | Aug 6, 2026
Looking Back On My Hard Luck Days
DAN SMITH | Aug 7, 2026
FIFA Financials
R Quinn | Jul 19, 2026
Before Someone Else Decides
Kathleen Rehl | Aug 2, 2026
Short term and long term Social Security planning
William Perry | Aug 4, 2026
Taxing Social Security benefits
R Quinn | Aug 6, 2026