This Is Only a Test
Michael Flack | Feb 19, 2023
I RECENTLY READ AN article in Barron’s that inadvertently revealed two more reasons investing in broad-based index funds is the only sensible course of action. The article, titled “This ‘Crazy’ Retirement Portfolio Has Just Beaten Wall Street for 50 Years,” touted the “All Asset No Authority” (AANA) portfolio. This “simple portfolio” consists of splitting your money equally among U.S. large-company stocks (S&P 500), U.S. small-company stocks (Russell 2000), developed international stocks (MSCI’s Europe, Australasia and Far East index, or EAFE), gold, commodities, U.S. real-estate investment trusts and 10-year Treasury notes, with the portfolio rebalanced annually. This brainchild of Doug Ramsey just marked its 50th anniversary. During that time, it’s earned a 9.8% average annual return, which is about 0.5 percentage point a year less than the S&P 500 but 0.7 percentage point more than a standard 60% stock-40% bond portfolio. Its main benefit is it had substantially less volatility, with no “lost decades.” Sounds great, doesn’t it? Not to me. I have two big issues with AANA. As I read the article, which also appeared on MarketWatch, the first thing I noticed about the portfolio’s 50-year-old record wasn’t its performance, volatility or catchy name. It’s that I wasn’t sure that Mr. Ramsey was, in fact, that old. After a little research, I determined the article was referring to Doug Ramsey, not the renowned financial radio host Dave Ramsey. Doug is younger than Dave and, at 56 years old, it would mean that he created AANA when he was in the early years of grade school. All this quickly led me to realize that AANA was manufactured by back testing—data-mining numerous permutations of different asset classes until one was found with superior risk and return numbers. It reminded me of hedge fund manager Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio. It consists of 40% long-term U.S.…
Read more » My Worst Investment
Michael Flack | Apr 15, 2021
WHILE READING THE great books on investing, studying financial theory and reviewing our investment performance are essential to becoming a better investor, sometimes it can be useful to learn from the mistakes of others—because what not to do can be even more important than what to do. As Otto von Bismarck may have said, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” Which brings me to me. In 1995, I was a lieutenant in the U.S. Navy stationed in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. I shared an office with another officer who was a Navy SEAL. Lieutenant O’Brien—or Obie, as he was called—was the prototypical SEAL, handsome, tall and perhaps the most confident man I’ve ever met. Obie walked the halls with a swagger that said, “I don’t care what you just said, now listen to what I’m going to say.” And I must admit that (for too long) I did. He and I would talk about investing and, while I’ve forgotten most of our conversations, I do specifically remember him saying, “You need to get some hard assets.” He then mentioned that he invested in gold and silver through a man named Barry Bellefontaine. Mr. B had monthly seminars, which were held within walking distance of my apartment, which made it quite easy to attend, so I did. It was a typical hotel conference room setup, with rows of chairs, some soft drinks on a table and a sign-in desk. The whole affair lasted about an hour and it was quite obvious that this was not the first presentation he had given. He mentioned that he thought the stock market and Hawaii real estate were overvalued, that he had sold most of his stocks and his house, that inflation was coming, and…
Read more » Not Cool
Michael Flack | Aug 31, 2023
SHOULD A REASONABLE real estate buyer expect the multiple listing service (MLS) to provide a reasonable description of the property being purchased? What if it doesn’t? All the previous times I’ve purchased real estate, the MLS accurately described the property I was buying. I realized that disclosures were also provided by the seller, and those specified the finer points of what was being purchased. Still, I’d come to expect a certain amount of integrity from the MLS listing itself. That all changed during my most recent real estate adventure. I signed a contract on a condo that, according to the MLS, came with a “large wine fridge.” A few weeks after signing the contract, I was again reviewing the disclosures and noticed that the large wine fridge wasn’t mentioned. The listing agent subsequently confirmed it wasn’t part of the deal, saying the wine fridge would have been part of the deal if I’d agreed to pay the list price. Now, I realize that legally the disclosures are what determines what is and isn’t part of the transaction, but I was dismayed to learn that an item so prominently mentioned in the MLS did not actually “convey,” as they say in real estate lingo. I then became concerned about whether the third space of the three-car private garage and the third of the three outdoor spaces would convey. Thankfully, they did. It also burned me that the large wine fridge would have conveyed if I paid “a full offer.” I’d never heard of such a thing. I wondered how much over asking would have enabled the seller’s Peloton to convey? I pushed my agent to go over the listing agent’s head to attain satisfaction, but the listing agent’s boss was even more obstinate. For most of my working life, I was…
Read more » Neighborhood Watch
Michael Flack | Oct 3, 2021
I BOUGHT A CONDO a few months back and have spent the past two months moving in. If I’d moved in before I retired, the process would have lasted no more than a month. But as I’m now retired and my time is virtually unlimited, I am merely halfway through the move-in process and type this sitting at a portable camp table. While the move-in has been slow, it’s lightyears faster than the process of meeting the neighbors. While meeting new neighbors has always been a slow process, in the age of COVID-19 it’s downright glacial. The first neighbor I met in my new townhouse community was Maxwell, whose garage is across the alley from mine. I met him during that classic driver of neighbor interaction—throwing out the garbage. Like a cat with a mouse in its mouth, I was proud to report to my wife, “I met a neighbor.” The next time I saw Maxwell, he mentioned he was going to be moving soon and therefore was putting his house on the market. My first thought wasn’t to ask where he was moving or why but, “Damn, the only neighbor I met is moving.” Naturally, my second thought was, “What’s the list price?” Well, a week later, after checking Zillow daily—I am retired—I noticed Maxwell’s place was for sale for $569,900. I was rooting for a quick sale at over the asking price, as Maxwell seemed like a nice guy—and, as his house was comparable to mine, it would mean the place I purchased a few months back had increased nicely in value. Well, two weeks later, I bumped into Maxwell’s wife, Jessica, and she shared the bad news—for all concerned—that their townhouse had only received one offer and it was a lowball bid of $500,000. She blamed a…
Read more » Losing My Cool
Michael Flack | Oct 9, 2022
IF THERE’S ONE THING that causes more marital stress than money, it’s the thermostat. I figured combining both into one article would be nothing less than genius. As I grow older, I’ve come to appreciate my father’s fascination with the thermostat, because now I, too, am constantly adjusting it. In my case, based on the current and future temperature, humidity and cloud cover, the adjustments are in the most economical direction. My wife is a set-it-and-forget-it kind of gal, which in the summer wouldn't necessarily be an issue, except that she sets it on brrrrr, which is right between nippy and hypothermia. A few months back, cold air stopped issuing from the living room duct. Since our home has two air-conditioning systems, the situation wasn’t catastrophic. I knew, though, that immediate action was required. If the now slightly overworked second system crapped out, a stay at a “nice” hotel would be required—"nice” being a word that strikes fear into the heart of any husband. I contacted the outfit that had performed an annual HVAC inspection a few months prior, at which time no issues were detected. The firm was booked up for the next few days. That made me both upset and elated—upset that they couldn’t arrive instantaneously, but elated to know I wasn’t the only person having cooling issues. That same day, my wife had been visiting a girlfriend who was also in the middle of a cooling crisis. She was able to arrange for her friend’s HVAC guy to stop by our place the next day. The fact that his name was also Mike made it seem like fate. Given that the evaporator coil inside the air handler was a block of ice and the exterior suction line was equally ice bound, my experience as a naval nuclear…
Read more » Clear as Knight
Michael Flack | Dec 9, 2022
GOOGLE THE WORD “annuity” and you’ll receive 97 million and one results. Is there anything left to be said? Yes, I think there is. About 11 years ago, my 89-year-old mother asked me if she should invest more money in her Knights of Columbus annuity. Unbeknownst to me, she and my father had purchased it many years earlier. It earned a guaranteed 3.5% annual interest rate, which was better than every savings account or certificate of deposit available, plus it was tax-deferred. As I had previously answered her vital questions—“can I get my hair done every other week?” (she could) and “should I give the front desk lady $20 for Christmas?” (she should)—she expected immediate and salient financial advice from her favorite son. I told her I wasn’t sure if she should invest more as my knowledge of annuities was limited. I knew that variable annuities were bad, and that immediate fixed annuities had their uses and that their present value could be easily explained by PV = PMT * [1 – [ (1 / 1+r)^n] / r]. I think she was expecting an answer that was a little more concise—and affirmative. Each time a certificate of deposit matured, she would ask me, “How about putting some money in that K of C annuity?” As a dutiful son—and after the third time she asked—I promised to contact the knight who sold her the annuity those many years ago. Sir Keith was duly contacted and asked to provide details on my mother’s annuity. He was a very nice man, who promptly mailed my mother her most recent statement, which didn’t exactly answer my question. When I called Sir Keith back, he claimed that was all he could do. When I asked for a prospectus, he informed me that there was no such…
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