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Market efficiency helps protect naïve investors from themselves—but it won’t protect them from brokers hell-bent on collecting a commission.

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Will Work For Food, Starting My Diet Soon

"When the spring rain washes the pollen away my dandelions appear. I am sitting here with mud on my jeans from digging them out for about an hour in my yard. A good rain gives me the best odds of getting an entire weed out but I am typically fully successful on only about fifty percent of my attempts. Attacking dandelions early helps mitigate their compound growth. The best part is a little exercise for me and frequent breaks getting to talk to neighbors on their early evening walks."
- William Perry
Read more »

I’ll take the “best” thing on the menu says Quinn

"I frequently ask my server what their favorite is. Doesn’t mean I have to get it. But it can be a fun and interesting conversation. Of all the things to be riled up about... Though some might say the same about my view of people refusing to use turn signals."
- Michael1
Read more »

How’s Your Crystal Ball? By Jonathan Clements

"2.0%4.3%No Recession500016000YesYes4.15%(i generally don't make predictions, so let's see how bad I do)"
- Scott Dichter
Read more »

Consumer Advocate by Ken Cutler

"Ken, you are either the most observant consumer I've heard of, or the unluckiest. My first consumer letter was sent at age 13, after a small spring in the handle of my lightly-used ultra-light spinning reel broke. I consulted the expanded parts diagram to determine the part number, then sent a letter to the manufacturer asking for a replacement. I offered to pay, but they sent an apology and a new spring. It was a good lesson for a young boy."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

Kristine Wonders: Does Not Having Children Change How You Plan For Retirement?

"I didn’t criticize her. I merely stated a fact. My use of “the same” was not literal. However, the notion that the decision to have or not have children in one’s 20s or 30s can be related to retirement or can be a plan for old age dependency escapes me. And if I am being honest, so does the idea of leaving money to animals under any circumstances. But of course, that is just my opinion."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Any Bonds Today? By Marjorie Kondrack

"important to note: There can be penalties for not redeeming matured savings bonds. https://accountinginsights.org/penalties-for-not-cashing-matured-savings-bonds-explained/"
- Marjorie Kondrack
Read more »

Paying Your Tuition

OSCAR WILDE ONCE made this observation: “Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember from time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught.” In other words, the only way to truly learn something is through experience. When it comes to investing, this is easier said than done because learning through experience can be expensive. As Warren Buffett once quipped, “It is good to learn from your mistakes. It’s better to learn from other people’s mistakes.” How can you square this circle? Wilde and Buffett each make good points. I believe both education and experience are key to learning more about investing. How might you approach that? Let’s start with education. Finance books and articles could fill a library, but there’s no need to read them all. Instead, I’d focus on four important concepts. 1. History. The one thing about the stock market that’s predictable is its unpredictability. New crises frequently come along, and each is different enough to give investors renewed anxiety. In dealing with these crises, what’s most important? In my opinion, it’s perspective. Good investors have a sense of market history that can help them navigate crises better than other investors. To learn history, you might consult this list of past market crashes. While it’s useful to study U.S. history, this list is global, going back to the Dutch tulip craze in 1637. Lists like this can help us appreciate an unavoidable reality: that crises have always been a feature of investment markets, and likely always will be. While this fact might seem unnerving, knowing this can help us better weather future events. The investment consulting firm Callan provides another great resource: Its Periodic Table of Investment Returns helps investors appreciate the largely random nature of markets and thus the futility of making predictions. For a more comprehensive study of market history, turn to William Bernstein’s 2002 book The Four Pillars of Investing. One of the four pillars is dedicated to history. As Bernstein puts it, markets periodically go “barking mad.” But by studying history, investors have “at least a fighting chance” at recognizing and understanding the madness when we see it. A second edition was published in 2023. 2. Psychology. I believe understanding market psychology is as important as studying market history. Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor is a good place to start. In a preface to the book, Warren Buffett notes that he first came across Graham’s book 75 years ago: “I thought then that it was by far the best book about investing ever written. I still think it is.” Why? Graham explains market psychology by way of a parable. Mr. Market is a fellow who can’t control his emotions. Sometimes he’s rational, Graham says, but sometimes “his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him.” Mr. Market’s behavior is representative of the market as a whole. That’s why, Graham says, investors “should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances.” 3. Statistics. How should we think about star investors who seem to be able to beat the market? In his book Fooled by Randomness, retired investor Nassim Taleb offers this illustration: “If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them would come out with an exact version of the Iliad.” Taleb acknowledges that the probability is “ridiculously low,” but he uses this idea to explain why we should never be too impressed by investors who manage to beat the market. In short, Taleb ascribes this to random chance. Each year, there will always be investment managers who end up way ahead, but there will be very few, Taleb points out, who are able to beat the market multiple years in a row.  Taleb’s book is 20 years old, but more recent data still confirm his argument. Each year, Standard & Poor’s publishes its “Index vs. Active” report comparing the performance of actively managed funds to their benchmarks. In any given one-year period, somewhat more than half of active funds underperform. But over longer periods, upwards of 80% or 90% of active funds lag behind. 4. Simplicity. Retired money manager Peter Lynch commented that investing “is both an art and a science,” but added that “too much of either is a dangerous thing.” To illustrate Lynch’s comment, I recommend the book When Genius Failed. It tells the story of a group of Nobel Prize winners who started a hedge fund based on highly quantitative strategies. While the fund was successful, their combined pedigree and early accomplishments led to an overconfidence in the system they’d built. The result was a financial meltdown so severe that the Federal Reserve stepped in to stabilize the situation. The lesson: While complex investment strategies may seem compelling, I believe simplicity for most investors most of the time is a more reliable strategy. For more on that point, you might like a book titled The Simple Path to Wealth. Another recommendation: Longtime journalist and investment manager Barry Ritholtz recently published an entertaining volume titled How Not to Invest. The book is a field guide to avoiding the worst of what he calls bad ideas, bad numbers and bad behavior. The idea is to keep things simple. What about Oscar Wilde’s comment that we need to learn through experience? There’s truth to it. In addition to this recommended reading, I suggest that investors—especially those just getting started—experiment a little. What should you buy? To answer this question, we can look to Albert Einstein. At one point in his life, Einstein owned a small sailboat which he named Tinef—German for “piece of junk.” Because it wasn’t very seaworthy, he often ended up on the rocks. But Einstein continued to sail the Tinef, even refusing a motor that a friend bought for him. He preferred wandering and exploring, even if it didn’t always end well. If you want to learn more about investing rather than by reading about it, I suggest taking a page from Einstein’s book. Explore a bit. If you have a favorite product, try buying the company’s stock. Interested in cryptocurrency? You could put a few dollars into one of the new bitcoin exchange-traded funds. In short, you might explore some of the investments that—according to the data—aren’t necessarily recommended. As long as the amounts are modest, I believe this is an effective way to learn. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Recommendations for Free Portfolio Analyzer?

"Thanks, Kalpesh. I will take a look at this."
- Andrew Forsythe
Read more »

Lesson One From Taking Care of a 102 yo in Her Last Year of Life- Be Grateful

"Thank you for the reminder to be grateful. I always think of things I’m grateful for when I’m having a difficult day. The easiest way to feel grateful for me is to compare my life and existence with people in war torn areas or areas facing hunger and lack shelter."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Three bucket strategy for financing retirement

"Three bucket approach simplifies finances to some extent. You could avoid complex withdrawal strategies. Agree, the change in interest rate environment requires repositioning."
- smr1082
Read more »

I’m concerned about the stock market. How concerned are you? Jonathan, any comforting words?

"I’ve never been here before, as in this exact place, but it seems there are similarities. This post and comments gave me something to think about. I am reminded of my past and I either experienced all of these things or lived with them: Stock market crashes, Housing crash, Bear Markets, Lost decade in stocks, Recessions, War concerns and the military draft,  Fear of Nuclear War, Fear of mass extinction because of asteroid impact, The war on drugs, Crime and criminal activities, Violence and personal threats, Financial hardships, being in debt and penniless at age 48, Business failure, Gasoline price peaks including rationing, Stagflation, Inflation, High interest rates on loans including a mortgage above 20%, Food shortages, High food prices, Polio, Measles, Mumps, Chicken Pox, H1N1, Swine Flu, SARS, Covid, etc. Severe personal injury; life threatening with permanent loss (twice), Stage IV Cancer, inoperable with 15% survival rate (at best), Unhappy citizens, Angry employees, Cut-throat competition and ungrateful clients, Civic unrest, Occupy Wall Street, etc.  Political unrest, Campus riots, Other riots accompanied by the destruction of nearby sections of communities, Two hurricanes and rebuilt after one, near misses by tornadoes, other severe storms and weather events on land and on water, An earthquake or two, Talk of the imminent demise of Social Security, Talk of the crash of the dollar, Fear of job loss, Mass layoffs and firings, Loss of parents, siblings, etc. Marital divorce, Etc.  I've concluded that I have survivor’s bias. Be aware that my list of good and incredible things is even longer!"
- Norman Retzke
Read more »

Going Back to Work (Briefly)

"Thanks for "Good for you for trying something new!" I am really glad I did try something totally new to me—I learned a lot about myself and other people. I also wrote down a lot of "funny to me" moments that still make me smile. One of those funny moments early on was realizing that the kind of "nice" slacks I was wearing to the job were totally wrong because they didn't have pockets. I needed four pockets for clipping gadgets onto: my walkie talkie, my store phone, my inventory scanner, and my iPhone for doing internet searches for customers who couldn't remember what they were looking for. So, early on I had to find a moment to go out and buy multiple pairs of on-sale jeans in different colors. There went two day's pay!"
- Laura E. Kelly
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Seeking Certainty

WE WANT OUR STOCKS to behave like bonds, and our bonds to behave like cash investments. That leads to all kinds of portfolio contortions—some of them damaging to our investment results. Remember, risk is the price we pay to earn higher returns. Many folks want those higher returns, but they’re anxious to avoid risk. Chalk it up to loss aversion: We get far more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. Result? Think about stock-market strategies like purchasing equity-indexed annuities and writing covered call options. Equity-indexed annuities capture part of the market’s upside while guaranteeing against losses—assuming the buyer owns the annuity for long enough. Meanwhile, writing call options allows folks to collect extra income in the form of option premiums, providing a small buffer against market declines, but the price is a cap on potential stock-market gains. As investors look to limit losses, however, the biggest portfolio contortions tend to revolve around bonds, not stocks. The strategies employed typically involve favoring individual bonds over bond funds, and then holding those bonds to maturity. This can add a fair amount of complexity, especially if folks build elaborate bond ladders, with each rung designed to cover a particular year’s spending. No doubt about it, there’s some reward for this complexity. If we buy an individual bond and hold it until it matures, we know exactly how much interest we’ll receive each year and how much we’ll get back upon maturity. Sound appealing? My advice: Before buying into the notion that bond funds are riskier than individual bonds, and that holding individual bonds to maturity eliminates risk, we should ask ourselves four questions:
  • Bailing early. Where’s the certainty if life intervenes, as it often does, and we’re compelled to sell our individual bonds before maturity? How easy will it be to sell the bonds in the secondary market, and could we receive far less than the bond’s par value?
  • Worrying about pennies. If we’re willing to own stocks and run the risk of steep short-term losses, should we really get hot and bothered because we don’t know precisely what a bond fund will be worth when we’ll need our money back in, say, 10 years?
  • No safety in numbers. Are we really reducing our financial peril if we trade the diversification of bond funds for the single-issuer risk of an individual bond? Is the added risk involved worth it, given that the return of an intermediate bond fund will likely be similar to that of an intermediate individual bond of comparable credit quality?
  • Losing to inflation. Where’s the certainty in knowing that each of our individual bonds will be worth $1,000 upon maturity, but we have no idea what the purchasing power of that $1,000 will be?
To be sure, the risk of individual securities is reduced if we stick with Treasury bonds, which most experts believe carry scant risk of default. Worried about inflation? That can be addressed with inflation-indexed Treasurys and Series I savings bonds. Still, I’ve never owned an individual bond, except a $75 EE savings bond I won for finishing second in a 5k road race. Why not? I’m not that concerned that my bond funds might be worth a few percent more or less than I’d hoped when it’s time to cash out. Why would I? Heck, I’ve lived through two 50%-plus stock market declines during my investing career, so modest fluctuations in bond prices hardly seem worth the worry. Meanwhile, I simply don’t want the hassle and complexity of dealing with individual bonds, including Treasurys and savings bonds, and I sure don’t want to bequeath that sort of portfolio to my family. Given all the complaints I’ve read about dealing with TreasuryDirect, and especially cashing in Series I and EE savings bonds, I’m glad I made that choice. But many readers, I know, strongly disagree. Jonathan Clements is the founder and editor of HumbleDollar. Follow him on X @ClementsMoney and on Facebook, and check out his earlier posts. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Will Work For Food, Starting My Diet Soon

"When the spring rain washes the pollen away my dandelions appear. I am sitting here with mud on my jeans from digging them out for about an hour in my yard. A good rain gives me the best odds of getting an entire weed out but I am typically fully successful on only about fifty percent of my attempts. Attacking dandelions early helps mitigate their compound growth. The best part is a little exercise for me and frequent breaks getting to talk to neighbors on their early evening walks."
- William Perry
Read more »

I’ll take the “best” thing on the menu says Quinn

"I frequently ask my server what their favorite is. Doesn’t mean I have to get it. But it can be a fun and interesting conversation. Of all the things to be riled up about... Though some might say the same about my view of people refusing to use turn signals."
- Michael1
Read more »

How’s Your Crystal Ball? By Jonathan Clements

"2.0%4.3%No Recession500016000YesYes4.15%(i generally don't make predictions, so let's see how bad I do)"
- Scott Dichter
Read more »

Consumer Advocate by Ken Cutler

"Ken, you are either the most observant consumer I've heard of, or the unluckiest. My first consumer letter was sent at age 13, after a small spring in the handle of my lightly-used ultra-light spinning reel broke. I consulted the expanded parts diagram to determine the part number, then sent a letter to the manufacturer asking for a replacement. I offered to pay, but they sent an apology and a new spring. It was a good lesson for a young boy."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

Kristine Wonders: Does Not Having Children Change How You Plan For Retirement?

"I didn’t criticize her. I merely stated a fact. My use of “the same” was not literal. However, the notion that the decision to have or not have children in one’s 20s or 30s can be related to retirement or can be a plan for old age dependency escapes me. And if I am being honest, so does the idea of leaving money to animals under any circumstances. But of course, that is just my opinion."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Any Bonds Today? By Marjorie Kondrack

"important to note: There can be penalties for not redeeming matured savings bonds. https://accountinginsights.org/penalties-for-not-cashing-matured-savings-bonds-explained/"
- Marjorie Kondrack
Read more »

Paying Your Tuition

OSCAR WILDE ONCE made this observation: “Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember from time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught.” In other words, the only way to truly learn something is through experience. When it comes to investing, this is easier said than done because learning through experience can be expensive. As Warren Buffett once quipped, “It is good to learn from your mistakes. It’s better to learn from other people’s mistakes.” How can you square this circle? Wilde and Buffett each make good points. I believe both education and experience are key to learning more about investing. How might you approach that? Let’s start with education. Finance books and articles could fill a library, but there’s no need to read them all. Instead, I’d focus on four important concepts. 1. History. The one thing about the stock market that’s predictable is its unpredictability. New crises frequently come along, and each is different enough to give investors renewed anxiety. In dealing with these crises, what’s most important? In my opinion, it’s perspective. Good investors have a sense of market history that can help them navigate crises better than other investors. To learn history, you might consult this list of past market crashes. While it’s useful to study U.S. history, this list is global, going back to the Dutch tulip craze in 1637. Lists like this can help us appreciate an unavoidable reality: that crises have always been a feature of investment markets, and likely always will be. While this fact might seem unnerving, knowing this can help us better weather future events. The investment consulting firm Callan provides another great resource: Its Periodic Table of Investment Returns helps investors appreciate the largely random nature of markets and thus the futility of making predictions. For a more comprehensive study of market history, turn to William Bernstein’s 2002 book The Four Pillars of Investing. One of the four pillars is dedicated to history. As Bernstein puts it, markets periodically go “barking mad.” But by studying history, investors have “at least a fighting chance” at recognizing and understanding the madness when we see it. A second edition was published in 2023. 2. Psychology. I believe understanding market psychology is as important as studying market history. Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor is a good place to start. In a preface to the book, Warren Buffett notes that he first came across Graham’s book 75 years ago: “I thought then that it was by far the best book about investing ever written. I still think it is.” Why? Graham explains market psychology by way of a parable. Mr. Market is a fellow who can’t control his emotions. Sometimes he’s rational, Graham says, but sometimes “his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him.” Mr. Market’s behavior is representative of the market as a whole. That’s why, Graham says, investors “should neither be concerned by sizable declines nor become excited by sizable advances.” 3. Statistics. How should we think about star investors who seem to be able to beat the market? In his book Fooled by Randomness, retired investor Nassim Taleb offers this illustration: “If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them would come out with an exact version of the Iliad.” Taleb acknowledges that the probability is “ridiculously low,” but he uses this idea to explain why we should never be too impressed by investors who manage to beat the market. In short, Taleb ascribes this to random chance. Each year, there will always be investment managers who end up way ahead, but there will be very few, Taleb points out, who are able to beat the market multiple years in a row.  Taleb’s book is 20 years old, but more recent data still confirm his argument. Each year, Standard & Poor’s publishes its “Index vs. Active” report comparing the performance of actively managed funds to their benchmarks. In any given one-year period, somewhat more than half of active funds underperform. But over longer periods, upwards of 80% or 90% of active funds lag behind. 4. Simplicity. Retired money manager Peter Lynch commented that investing “is both an art and a science,” but added that “too much of either is a dangerous thing.” To illustrate Lynch’s comment, I recommend the book When Genius Failed. It tells the story of a group of Nobel Prize winners who started a hedge fund based on highly quantitative strategies. While the fund was successful, their combined pedigree and early accomplishments led to an overconfidence in the system they’d built. The result was a financial meltdown so severe that the Federal Reserve stepped in to stabilize the situation. The lesson: While complex investment strategies may seem compelling, I believe simplicity for most investors most of the time is a more reliable strategy. For more on that point, you might like a book titled The Simple Path to Wealth. Another recommendation: Longtime journalist and investment manager Barry Ritholtz recently published an entertaining volume titled How Not to Invest. The book is a field guide to avoiding the worst of what he calls bad ideas, bad numbers and bad behavior. The idea is to keep things simple. What about Oscar Wilde’s comment that we need to learn through experience? There’s truth to it. In addition to this recommended reading, I suggest that investors—especially those just getting started—experiment a little. What should you buy? To answer this question, we can look to Albert Einstein. At one point in his life, Einstein owned a small sailboat which he named Tinef—German for “piece of junk.” Because it wasn’t very seaworthy, he often ended up on the rocks. But Einstein continued to sail the Tinef, even refusing a motor that a friend bought for him. He preferred wandering and exploring, even if it didn’t always end well. If you want to learn more about investing rather than by reading about it, I suggest taking a page from Einstein’s book. Explore a bit. If you have a favorite product, try buying the company’s stock. Interested in cryptocurrency? You could put a few dollars into one of the new bitcoin exchange-traded funds. In short, you might explore some of the investments that—according to the data—aren’t necessarily recommended. As long as the amounts are modest, I believe this is an effective way to learn. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Recommendations for Free Portfolio Analyzer?

"Thanks, Kalpesh. I will take a look at this."
- Andrew Forsythe
Read more »

Lesson One From Taking Care of a 102 yo in Her Last Year of Life- Be Grateful

"Thank you for the reminder to be grateful. I always think of things I’m grateful for when I’m having a difficult day. The easiest way to feel grateful for me is to compare my life and existence with people in war torn areas or areas facing hunger and lack shelter."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Seeking Certainty

WE WANT OUR STOCKS to behave like bonds, and our bonds to behave like cash investments. That leads to all kinds of portfolio contortions—some of them damaging to our investment results. Remember, risk is the price we pay to earn higher returns. Many folks want those higher returns, but they’re anxious to avoid risk. Chalk it up to loss aversion: We get far more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. Result? Think about stock-market strategies like purchasing equity-indexed annuities and writing covered call options. Equity-indexed annuities capture part of the market’s upside while guaranteeing against losses—assuming the buyer owns the annuity for long enough. Meanwhile, writing call options allows folks to collect extra income in the form of option premiums, providing a small buffer against market declines, but the price is a cap on potential stock-market gains. As investors look to limit losses, however, the biggest portfolio contortions tend to revolve around bonds, not stocks. The strategies employed typically involve favoring individual bonds over bond funds, and then holding those bonds to maturity. This can add a fair amount of complexity, especially if folks build elaborate bond ladders, with each rung designed to cover a particular year’s spending. No doubt about it, there’s some reward for this complexity. If we buy an individual bond and hold it until it matures, we know exactly how much interest we’ll receive each year and how much we’ll get back upon maturity. Sound appealing? My advice: Before buying into the notion that bond funds are riskier than individual bonds, and that holding individual bonds to maturity eliminates risk, we should ask ourselves four questions:
  • Bailing early. Where’s the certainty if life intervenes, as it often does, and we’re compelled to sell our individual bonds before maturity? How easy will it be to sell the bonds in the secondary market, and could we receive far less than the bond’s par value?
  • Worrying about pennies. If we’re willing to own stocks and run the risk of steep short-term losses, should we really get hot and bothered because we don’t know precisely what a bond fund will be worth when we’ll need our money back in, say, 10 years?
  • No safety in numbers. Are we really reducing our financial peril if we trade the diversification of bond funds for the single-issuer risk of an individual bond? Is the added risk involved worth it, given that the return of an intermediate bond fund will likely be similar to that of an intermediate individual bond of comparable credit quality?
  • Losing to inflation. Where’s the certainty in knowing that each of our individual bonds will be worth $1,000 upon maturity, but we have no idea what the purchasing power of that $1,000 will be?
To be sure, the risk of individual securities is reduced if we stick with Treasury bonds, which most experts believe carry scant risk of default. Worried about inflation? That can be addressed with inflation-indexed Treasurys and Series I savings bonds. Still, I’ve never owned an individual bond, except a $75 EE savings bond I won for finishing second in a 5k road race. Why not? I’m not that concerned that my bond funds might be worth a few percent more or less than I’d hoped when it’s time to cash out. Why would I? Heck, I’ve lived through two 50%-plus stock market declines during my investing career, so modest fluctuations in bond prices hardly seem worth the worry. Meanwhile, I simply don’t want the hassle and complexity of dealing with individual bonds, including Treasurys and savings bonds, and I sure don’t want to bequeath that sort of portfolio to my family. Given all the complaints I’ve read about dealing with TreasuryDirect, and especially cashing in Series I and EE savings bonds, I’m glad I made that choice. But many readers, I know, strongly disagree. Jonathan Clements is the founder and editor of HumbleDollar. Follow him on X @ClementsMoney and on Facebook, and check out his earlier posts. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 17: OUR MOST valuable asset is often our human capital—our income-earning ability. A regular paycheck can be like collecting interest from a bond, which then frees us up to invest in stocks.

Truths

NO. 103: YOU CAN estimate stock market returns by adding the starting dividend yield to the expected percentage increase in earnings per share. But such estimates could prove badly wrong—depending on investor sentiment. When investors grow bullish, they put a higher value on corporate earnings, driving up the market’s price-earnings ratio.

think

HAPPINESS RESEARCH. Using experiments and survey data, academics have brought greater rigor to our understanding of what drives happiness. For instance, researchers have found that commuting and the birth of a child hurt happiness, a robust network of friends is a big plus, and that money buys happiness but the amount wanes as our income rises.

humans

NO. 3: WE LACK self-control. Prudent money management is simple enough: We should save less than we earn, build a globally diversified portfolio, hold down investment costs, minimize taxes, buy the right insurance and take on debt judiciously. Yet folks struggle with such basic steps—because they can’t bring themselves to do what they know is right.

Money Guide

Hybrid Policies

INSTEAD OF BUYING traditional long-term-care (LTC) insurance, you could purchase hybrid LTC insurance, which is a cash-value life insurance policy that’s designed to cover long-term care. We discuss cash-value policies later in this chapter. With a hybrid policy, you pay a fixed amount of premiums to an insurer in a single upfront lump sum or over a set period, such as 10 years. If you don’t need care, your heirs receive 100% of your premiums back, plus a modest amount of interest, upon your death. If you do need care, you’re able to collect monthly benefits up to a lifetime maximum, just like a traditional LTC policy. Total benefits available from a hybrid policy are typically three to five times your premiums. In effect, the policy leverages your premiums, so you can cover a much larger amount of long-term care. The caveat: Each dollar of benefits you receive reduces your return-of-premium death benefit until it’s exhausted. The upshot: You might think of your initial premium as effectively acting as the policy’s “deductible”—a deductible you’ll never pay if you don’t need care. Hybrid policies can be a good choice for individuals or couples who are comfortable funding the first few years of LTC out of pocket, but want insurance if care proves especially expensive. Hybrid policies also appeal to folks who hate the idea of paying years of premiums for traditional LTC insurance, but never getting anything back. And because hybrid premiums are guaranteed, you avoid the risk of large premium increases later in retirement. Sales of hybrid policies have been picking up, even as demand for traditional LTC insurance has waned. Hybrid policies aren’t for everyone. Premiums may be unaffordable, even if you spread the cost over 10 years. There’s also an opportunity cost: You forgo the investment returns that you could have earned on the funds if you’d kept them yourself. An alternative to a hybrid life insurance policy is a tax-deferred fixed annuity with an LTC rider. If you don’t need long-term care, the money continues to collect interest. If care is needed, you can usually get access to a sum equal to some multiple of your original annuity investment. When it comes to LTC benefits, these annuities typically don’t provide as much leverage as a life insurance hybrid policy, so they aren’t as good value. On the other hand, annuities with an LTC rider have looser underwriting standards, so they might be the right choice for folks who don’t qualify for a traditional or hybrid LTC policy. Next: Medicaid and LTC Previous: LTC Insurance Articles: Prepare for Care and Package Deals
Read more »

Manifesto

NO. 17: OUR MOST valuable asset is often our human capital—our income-earning ability. A regular paycheck can be like collecting interest from a bond, which then frees us up to invest in stocks.

Spotlight: Family

How do you feel about accepting money, etc. from your children?

You faced no financial disasters through life, you were not disabled, you simply went through life with no specific financial plans for the future and now you are old, retired with minimal income or resources.
How would you feel accepting money or substantial gifts (car) from adult children?
Glad, embarrassed, ashamed, entitled, grateful?

Read more »

“Dad, how should I invest for retirement ?”

Ever have one of those moments?  You you’ve been reading HumbleDollar for a couple years and your 26 year old son calls and says “Dad, work is going to start kicking in %5 for a 403(b), what should I do?” “Well, son, let me tell you about low cost index funds…”
Anybody else had softballs teed up like this ?  🙂

Read more »

Getting Roasted

“YOU WILL ROTH!”
“But Dad, I’m only 10.”
“Evan, it is never too early to start saving. Besides, this gives you 70-plus years of compounding.”
“Yes, Dad, but didn’t you tell me last week that I need a job and earned income to contribute to a Roth?”
“We can arrange to get you a paycheck. I’ll get a friend or neighbor to hire you. What would you like to do?”
“I like to play soccer.”
“Evan,

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Raising Them Right

ADULT MONEY HABITS are set by age seven, according to a 2013 Cambridge University study. Want to get your kids on the right track? Three things should scare the hell out of you.
First, parents teach kids about money all the time, often without knowing it. “Turn off the lights.” “Let’s go shopping.” “We will save if we have something left over.” It’s unavoidable. The subject of money is as omnipresent as the air we breathe.

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Am I the boring aunt?

As I sit here on what the media is calling “Super Saturday” (?!?), I can’t help but wonder, am I the boring aunt?  My husband and I are childfree by choice but we are blessed with five awesome nieces and nephews, consisting of 21 month old twins through 7 years old.  I love the Christmas season but as a society, we’ve lost something with all the commercialism and commoditization of this great holiday.  Thus, we give the kids money for birthdays and holidays.

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Sharing the Journey

MY WIFE IS OUT OF town for a while, so I have a lot of free time on my hands. I asked Carl, an old schoolmate, if he’d like to have lunch. I thought it would be a chance to give Carl a couple of copies of the HumbleDollar book, My Money Journey.
I didn’t think Carl would actually read the essay I wrote, let alone the whole book.

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Spotlight: Sayler

Any Seat Will Do

WHEN OUR CHILDREN were little, we had season tickets to the Children’s Theatre in Minneapolis. We started taking our older child, and then brought his brother along when he was old enough to enjoy the show. We had tickets in the front row of the balcony. Before my youngest son’s first show, he looked over the balcony railing at all of the people below. He asked why we were clear up here, when there were all of those people below us. My oldest son told him in a conspiratorial whisper that it was “because Mom and Dad are cheap.” I reminded them that, while we may be cheap, they were here at the show. In my defense, I believe that, in many venues, the first row of the balcony is one of the better seats in the house. For several years, we held season tickets to the St. Paul Chamber Orchestra. Our seats were in the second balcony. But as I’ve gotten older and our finances have become more secure, I find that my ticket purchasing has become a bit less thrifty. For instance, a friend is coming to town and we’re going to a Twins game. We’re sitting in the seventh row behind home plate. Similarly, when Manhattan Transfer was doing one of its last concerts, the venue was the Dakota, an intimate jazz club. My wife and I secured a booth right in front of the stage. Meanwhile, we took my mother to the touring production of Hello Dolly. We were in the first row of the main floor. My mother’s smile while watching the show made the price of the tickets immaterial. I still can’t bring myself to pay for tickets on the 50-yard line when Purdue, my alma mater, comes to town. But I’m closer to the 40-yard line than the end zone, which is where I watched the games when I was younger. I justify all of this by citing the research that says we’re happier when we spend money on experiences rather than things. Still, I’m not 100% sure that you get more happiness by sitting in the front row rather than the cheap seats. For many years, my father-in-law had season tickets to the University of Minnesota’s Gophers basketball games. He would take me to the game when the Gophers played Purdue. His tickets were literally the very last row of the highest section, behind the basket. I have wonderful memories of those games. I’m not sure we could have enjoyed the games any more than we did—which means that perhaps I’m wasting money buying more expensive seats. What I do know for sure: It would be a shame to miss building those memories with the people you love and care about—and you should go even if you can’t afford the best seats.
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Good Enough

AT THE FIRST Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting I attended, Charlie Munger was explaining an investment that the company had made. He said it was likely to provide satisfactory returns. At the time, that seemed like an odd statement. Satisfactory? Not great returns. Not market-beating results. Not returns of 10% or 15% per year. Not even market average performance. Just satisfactory. Since that meeting, I’ve come to appreciate satisfactory returns. Satisfactory covers a wide range, everything from beating the performance of Treasury notes to bragging-around-the-office-coffee-pot returns. It also allows me to keep holding my portfolio. For the past 30 years, I’ve had a significant small capitalization and foreign stock tilt. With U.S. large-cap stocks on a tear over the past decade, it’s been a tough period for a portfolio with such a tilt. Friends question my asset allocation—as well as my sanity. I do believe that small-cap stocks will outperform over the long haul. I also think it’s better to pay less for future corporate earnings rather than more. Since most foreign stock markets have a lower price-earnings ratio than the U.S., I believe that performance across markets will converge. That could mean that foreign stocks soar or U.S. stocks struggle. It doesn’t matter to me. Either way, I’ll see some benefit from diversifying globally. Unfortunately, we may not know if my convictions are correct for another three or four decades. Both small caps and foreign stocks have had long periods of underperformance. It could turn out that having these two tilts will look brilliant. Or it could look like a huge mistake. Over the past decade, my portfolio has underperformed the S&P 500. But I’m okay continuing to hold it because the returns have been satisfactory. We’ve sent our children to college. We’ve retired on our own timeline. Life is good. I’m satisfied with satisfactory returns.
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Famous Last Words

YOU PROBABLY RECALL many firsts: Your first car, your first kiss, maybe even the first stock you purchased. Firsts are exciting. Firsts are easy to demark. You’ve never purchased an item before, so—when you do purchase it—it’s a first. By contrast, lasts sneak up on you. There’s always a chance that you’ll replace an item one more time. My wife has caused me to start thinking about my lasts. This winter, my 36-year-old winter mittens finally wore out. In fairness, it was the outer mitten that wore out. I’d earlier replaced the wool liners three times. When I went looking for a new pair, I was startled by the $80 price tag. My wife said, “Don’t worry about the cost. This will be the last pair you’ll ever buy.” That shocked me. But realistically, in 36 years, I’ll be replacing this pair of mittens when I’m age 98. Assuming that I’m still around, I’m less likely to be doing winter camping or walking the dog in the dead of winter, so she’s probably correct. This will be my last pair of mittens. Our 26-year-old CRT television finally wore out. The replacement TV I purchase may be the last TV I’ll ever buy. If a new one lasts as long as my old one, I’ll be age 88 when it’s time to get a replacement. True, the odds are a bit better that I’ll need a new TV than a new pair of mittens—but not much. It can be a bit depressing to count down your life by the list of things that you’ll never need to purchase again. Still, I disagree with my wife on one item. She has said that our current dog will be my last dog. I’m only willing to concede that he will be the last dog I get while married to my first wife.
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Suiting Myself

EBAY CAN BE a fantastic teacher of basic economic principles. I’ve been an active buyer recently, and enjoy watching the interaction among supply, demand and price. Take the market for business attire. Demand has declined for suits, blazers and jackets. This has happened at the same time that supply has risen, so prices are cheap. Suits were once the everyday uniform for both men and women. When I started working, I owned six suits in shades of blue and gray: a winter suit, a summer suit and four three-season suits. Getting ready for work was easy: just pull out a suit and coordinated shirt. The only real decision I needed to make involved choosing a tie. Business fashion eventually switched from suits to sportcoats and chinos. It then became even more casual. Nowadays, many offices only require chinos and a shirt. I always loved jackets. Living in Minnesota, I found a sportcoat to be a valuable piece of clothing. I could wear it seven months a year and remove it when the weather got warm. I still own a number of jackets in various materials and styles. My favorite jackets are made of wool tweed. They’re durable and wrinkle resistant, and look sharp. I paid more than $150 for my favorite tweed jacket back then—but I could never bring myself to splurge on a classic Harris Tweed. Harris Tweeds are handwoven on Scotland’s Outer Hebrides, with the cloth available in wonderful patterns. Harris Tweeds command a premium because of their high quality. If you’ve ever watched Downton Abbey, you may have noticed Hugh Bonneville’s character wearing tweed suits. They look fabulous on him. Nobody will ever confuse me with a television star. Still, I pull on a tweed jacket whenever I want to look fancier than normal. Over the past year, I’ve purchased four lightly worn Harris Tweed jackets on eBay. I paid between $47 and $57. The low price is a prime example of supply and demand at work. Supply and demand trends are also evident in the market for bolo ties. Yes, bolo ties. They’re a fine example of Native American jewelry and an excellent option for men who don’t wear extra rings, bracelets or necklaces. I bought my first bolo tie while vacationing with my wife in the Southwest. Bolo ties traditionally come from the different Native American tribes in the region. You can now find numerous styles produced by different tribes. I recently decided to collect one bolo tie in each of the main styles: overlay, mosaic inlay, sandcast, turquoise and concho. Five years ago, I could purchase a vintage bolo tie on eBay for $50 to $60. Since then, TV shows like Yellowstone and Tombstone have sparked an increase in demand. Current prices are three-to-four times higher than what I paid. At today’s prices, I’m an admirer of the beautiful silverwork, but no longer a buyer. Everyone, I believe, should have a handle on basic economic principles. See an older fellow in a Harris Tweed jacket and a Native American bolo tie? Feel free to ask him if he got a bargain.
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Stocks bonds cash

Spend With a Smile

AS I WAS PREPARING to retire last year, I spoke with a number of friends who were also about to leave the workforce. One of the main topics of discussion: How could we best arrange a stream of income for the next three decades or so? Among my friends, a common refrain was that they planned to spend more in their first decade of retirement. They thought their spending would fall during the second decade, because they figured they’d grow less mobile. This fits the spending pattern of many retired Americans. Just Google “retirement spending smile.” It has nothing to do with your teeth. Rather, it’s the notion that recent retirees spend more on travel, eating out and other discretionary items. As they age, they cut back on some of these discretionary items. At some point, however, health care costs start rising, causing spending to increase again. I don’t doubt the data—this is what many retirees experience. But I was concerned about cause and effect. Did retirees decrease their spending because they were running out of funds or were concerned that they might? It seemed intuitive to me that, given a choice, most people would prefer to continue spending at a higher rate. Lo and behold, some smart academics at Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research decided to look into the retirement smile. Anqi Chen and Alicia H. Munnell analyzed almost 20 years of spending by retired Americans. What did they find? Yes, the average retiree’s spending decreases about 0.7% to 0.8% annually. Over 20 years, the compound impact would lower retiree spending by perhaps 13%. But among retirees who were wealthier and healthy, spending declined at less than half that rate, just 0.3% per year. After 20 years, they’d spend about 6% less. This suggests that people prefer to keep their spending more constant. That may not be possible if they don’t have sufficient retirement funds. Also, if they’re in ill-health, they may not feel like spending on discretionary items or, alternatively, they may have deliberately spent more when their health was better and are cutting back now that they’re less healthy. I’m retired now. It’s too late to add to our retirement funds. But I am focused on eating well and exercising—so I’m healthy enough to spend what we’ve socked away.
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