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A bleak picture for retirement in the future?

"Not specifically related to the survey, but my understanding is that 401K or similar retirement funds are often not available to people working for small businesses? This seems to be a huge gap in retirement funding for Americans As someone that has always worked for small to medium employers, this would have left me to work it out on my own. Not sure that as a young man I would have had the foresight to start my own retirement savings. Fortunately for me, here in Australia we have a compulsory scheme for all employees, regardless of employer size or type."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

State Farm Dividend

"Thanks, Bogdan. I thought this was a scam, too, but I did the research and discovered I’ll get $132 back."
- Carl C Trovall
Read more »

This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Learning takes many forms and people learn in different ways, sometimes from reading others experiences, sometimes from debate on different points of view. That's why I wrote a section for My Money Journey I would suggest that there is a learning experience available from the comments and criticisms made on this post. I would be pleased if one person was motivated to think about their behavior with CC debt."
- R Quinn
Read more »

What’s your Domicile?

"I got this newsletter from Andy and it made my head hurt. Chris"
- baldscreen
Read more »

Make the Attic Great Again

"David, I'm surely not an engineer, my math skills are seriously lacking, I just like to throw in an occasional reference to spreadsheets to poke the Quinn bear every once in a while. I'm happy that my daughters have a few things from my folks."
- DAN SMITH
Read more »

Finding A Balance

"Thanks, Mike. I really appreciate this perspective. And to answer your test question: Yes, I’m very happy with my life today. You’re right that changing one decision from the past might have changed everything that followed, including many of the things and people I cherish today. I’ve made my share of mistakes, but I’ve also learned from them. Perhaps that’s the best we can ask of ourselves, to accept the past, carry forward what it taught us, and appreciate where the journey ultimately brought us."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

The Value of Scratch Cooking in Retirement

"Dan, Suzie would nod along in agreement. We're extremely compatible in most areas, but the kitchen isn't one of them. The woman can turn a bowl of cereal and a cup of coffee into a full dishwasher load. Wisely, we've agreed that I will do the cooking. It's also best not to bicker within reach of sharp, pointy implements. And Suzie is very happy to let me wait on her hand and foot in the dining arena! I'm also guilty of reracking the dishwasher after Suzie's loaded it 😂"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"My wife and I are both 60 and fully retired, and are blessed to be fully capable of self funding. Back when we were in our mid-40s we didn't know how things would turn out and we purchased long term care insurance. Our annual premium is fixed at ~$2,500 per year each and it pays out ~$10,000 per month. We continue to pay the premiums and pray we will never need this, and fortunately the premiums are a small expense in the big picture. Generally I lean to the side of self-insurance, but I have seen first-hand how long term memory care can burn through cash reserves. My mother in law spent 5 years in memory care and the fact my father in law had purchased LTC insurance for her years before enabled her to not have to sell a farm or two to pay for her extended care. I had a close friend who had a father get Alzheimers at around 60 and he spent greater than 10 years in memory and skilled nursing care. They burned through well over a million dollars in that time. Self funded. Unforturnately virtually all of us will be faced with situations like this -- for a parent, sibling, spouse or self. There is no one-sized answer that fits all of our situations or needs, and it is something every person needs to build a plan to address."
- glenntp
Read more »

Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Blood Money

"If a future NUA has limited value to you then if you are concerned about the concentration from owning a high percentage of XOM I would hope you have the option to diversify within your 401(k). Before retirement I previously had some 1040 tax clients whose 401(k) plans/funds had lower expense ratios than what is available at Vanguard so leaving their funds in their 401(k) made more sense than rolling to a 401(k)."
- William Perry
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Americans and their credit cards

"53% of Americans is greater than 46% of cardholders since all Americans don’t have credit cards so both those numbers can’t be correct."
- R Quinn
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Percentage that “age in place”

"Lots of important insights here. We’re still committed to aging in place, but being 83 have seen what our friends are encountering. I totally agree about the importance of having family nearby. That seems to be critical. Also, I think you’re right about memory care facilities. I really wonder about those with many residents in independent living and a handful in memory care. I know of one non profit CCRC where the independent living folks had the manager fired because he was spending on Memory Care and shortchanging their amenities. The prices you mention are very typical of those where I live."
- Marilyn Lavin
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A bleak picture for retirement in the future?

"Not specifically related to the survey, but my understanding is that 401K or similar retirement funds are often not available to people working for small businesses? This seems to be a huge gap in retirement funding for Americans As someone that has always worked for small to medium employers, this would have left me to work it out on my own. Not sure that as a young man I would have had the foresight to start my own retirement savings. Fortunately for me, here in Australia we have a compulsory scheme for all employees, regardless of employer size or type."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

State Farm Dividend

"Thanks, Bogdan. I thought this was a scam, too, but I did the research and discovered I’ll get $132 back."
- Carl C Trovall
Read more »

This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Learning takes many forms and people learn in different ways, sometimes from reading others experiences, sometimes from debate on different points of view. That's why I wrote a section for My Money Journey I would suggest that there is a learning experience available from the comments and criticisms made on this post. I would be pleased if one person was motivated to think about their behavior with CC debt."
- R Quinn
Read more »

What’s your Domicile?

"I got this newsletter from Andy and it made my head hurt. Chris"
- baldscreen
Read more »

Make the Attic Great Again

"David, I'm surely not an engineer, my math skills are seriously lacking, I just like to throw in an occasional reference to spreadsheets to poke the Quinn bear every once in a while. I'm happy that my daughters have a few things from my folks."
- DAN SMITH
Read more »

Finding A Balance

"Thanks, Mike. I really appreciate this perspective. And to answer your test question: Yes, I’m very happy with my life today. You’re right that changing one decision from the past might have changed everything that followed, including many of the things and people I cherish today. I’ve made my share of mistakes, but I’ve also learned from them. Perhaps that’s the best we can ask of ourselves, to accept the past, carry forward what it taught us, and appreciate where the journey ultimately brought us."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

The Value of Scratch Cooking in Retirement

"Dan, Suzie would nod along in agreement. We're extremely compatible in most areas, but the kitchen isn't one of them. The woman can turn a bowl of cereal and a cup of coffee into a full dishwasher load. Wisely, we've agreed that I will do the cooking. It's also best not to bicker within reach of sharp, pointy implements. And Suzie is very happy to let me wait on her hand and foot in the dining arena! I'm also guilty of reracking the dishwasher after Suzie's loaded it 😂"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"My wife and I are both 60 and fully retired, and are blessed to be fully capable of self funding. Back when we were in our mid-40s we didn't know how things would turn out and we purchased long term care insurance. Our annual premium is fixed at ~$2,500 per year each and it pays out ~$10,000 per month. We continue to pay the premiums and pray we will never need this, and fortunately the premiums are a small expense in the big picture. Generally I lean to the side of self-insurance, but I have seen first-hand how long term memory care can burn through cash reserves. My mother in law spent 5 years in memory care and the fact my father in law had purchased LTC insurance for her years before enabled her to not have to sell a farm or two to pay for her extended care. I had a close friend who had a father get Alzheimers at around 60 and he spent greater than 10 years in memory and skilled nursing care. They burned through well over a million dollars in that time. Self funded. Unforturnately virtually all of us will be faced with situations like this -- for a parent, sibling, spouse or self. There is no one-sized answer that fits all of our situations or needs, and it is something every person needs to build a plan to address."
- glenntp
Read more »

Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 35: OUR ODDS of beating the market averages over a lifetime of investing are so small they’re hardly worth considering. Overconfident investors insist on trying. Rational investors index.

think

MIRRORINGWe often unintentionally mimic others. If, say, our friends are thrifty, we might also spend less. But mirroring isn’t always beneficial: If our neighbors are day traders, there’s a risk we’ll also speculate on hot stocks. Similarly, salespeople often use mirroring to build customer rapport—and we could find ourselves buying products we shouldn’t.

Truths

NO. 75: IF YOU BUY and hold individual stocks or stock index funds in a regular taxable account, you can defer taxes, just like you can in a retirement account. Any capital-gains tax bill is postponed until you sell. But for this tax deferral to be truly valuable, you need super-low portfolio turnover, holding investments for 10 or preferably 20 years.

humans

NO. 26: WE TEND to be overconfident—which isn’t a bad thing. Self-confident individuals tend to be happier, have a wider circle of friends and enjoy greater career success. Problem is, if we’re too confident in our financial abilities, there’s a risk we’ll rack up hefty investment costs and make big undiversified bets, both of which could come back to haunt us.

Estate planning

Manifesto

NO. 35: OUR ODDS of beating the market averages over a lifetime of investing are so small they’re hardly worth considering. Overconfident investors insist on trying. Rational investors index.

Spotlight: Life Events

I’ve stolen the words Willful Ignorance and Disengagement from a prior forum post.

“Hi, I’m Chris”. That’s how it all began in early 2002. My friend Dave and I were hanging out of a hole in the wall of my duplex, installing a new window. Chris was the good looking neighbor girl. She thought Dave and I were a couple, he was actually my best bud, living with me and providing his carpenter skills in lieu of rent during some hard times.
By the end of the year I and Chris were a couple,

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$400,000 Mistake

BOB MADE A very expensive tax mistake. Doctors told Bob that he only has a year to live… What did Bob do?
He decided to gift a house to his only son before passing away. The house is worth $2,000,000 that he bought back in 1970 for $50,000 in an expensive suburb of California.
The son decided to sell the house and paid about $430,000 in federal taxes.
$430,000 that could have been $0 instead…
How?

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Sweet Bird of Youth

Connecting with younger people is like a rejuvenating fountain of life for me.  Since many of us are fortunate to have children and grandchildren  nearby, we can enjoy being a part of their everyday life,  allowing us to share a special bond with them.
But some of us are restricted by the confines of chronology, and cut off from interaction with younger people. Small wonder that so many seniors retire to college towns. Being around younger people reminds me how thrilling it was when I was young—when the future was bright,

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DST Transitioning

This has nothing to do with HD finances, but much to do with HD living.
Every six months or so we see newspaper or online articles questioning the value of Daylight Saving Time (DST). Some argue that it should never be implemented, while others say it should be permanent, with no changes. Others like it the way it is.
Before I retired, DST really had a minimal impact on me. Except for a short stint on a construction site,

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I Cry More Easily Now. I Didn’t Use To

I’m not the same person I was when I retired at 59. Back then, I was frugal to a fault, afraid to spend money, even on myself. Now I treat myself more often, take better care of my health, and I like to think I’ve grown more patient. But the biggest change is this: I cry more easily.
I didn’t use to understand that kind of emotion. When I was about 11, I was watching television with Uncle Lou.

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What will you do with $5,000?

DOGE is considering sending all Americans $5,000 as a dividend on all the savings that have been achieved by firing, slashing and burning various government agencies.  My question is what will you do with your $5,000?
If it sounds too good to be true, see:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-mulls-giving-americans-165329483.html

Read more »

Spotlight: Saha

Honeymoon At Last

I'VE BEEN MARRIED TWICE, yet neither time could I take my newlywed wife on a proper honeymoon, let alone a lavish one. Hearing the honeymoon stories of others always left me feeling wistful, tinged with a hint of envy. My first marriage was a bit rushed. My first wife—now my ex—and I wanted a no-frills civil marriage followed by a simple reception. But my parents insisted on a traditional Bengali wedding with its array of rituals, many of which seemed meaningless to me. The clash between my youthful arrogance and my parents’ orthodox stance blew this seemingly minor disagreement out of proportion, and it didn’t end well. Long story short, I left amid a heated argument and decided to do things my way. My fiancée and I exchanged vows in the office of a marriage registrar in Kolkata. A few close friends attended the modest celebration that followed, but none of my family. Disappointed and disheartened by how things unfolded, we weren’t in the mood for a honeymoon. Thankfully, sanity prevailed after a few months. Faced with the consequences of our stubbornness and momentary lapse of reason, both my parents and I hurried to reconcile and mend the emotional wounds. It took some time to move past the bitter experience. By the time the dust settled, it was too late for a honeymoon. My second wedding wasn’t entirely devoid of tension, albeit for a different reason. Divorce and remarriage are still uncommon and frowned upon in our culture and family. For undertaking such a step, both Bonny—my soon-to-be second wife and a single mother—and I were pioneers in our respective families. As the wedding day neared, we felt the apprehension of “what would people say” hovering over our parents and elders. The wedding turned out to be less dramatic than…
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Less Funds More Gain

READERS MAY RECALL Laura, my acquaintance who didn’t need life insurance but was sold a policy anyway. Alarmed by her ignorance, she vowed to manage her own money. As a first step, she parted ways with her financial advisor. The advisor had her invested in 35 funds. She never fully understood what these funds owned or why she needed them. She had previously thought that investing had to be complicated and was best left to the professionals. She wasn’t so sure anymore. After spending days researching her funds and still getting nowhere, Laura figured that there must be simpler ways to invest. She broached the idea with me. What struck me about her investments wasn’t just the complexity, but also her overall asset allocation. More than half of her long-term savings was in cash and bonds. Why would someone in her 40s invest so conservatively? Apparently, Laura’s former advisor had recommended a moderately aggressive asset allocation. Indeed, 70% of her managed investments were in various stock funds. But she also had a pile of cash in her bank account. Did her advisor overlook this uninvested savings? Nope. It turns out that she was repeatedly asked to add the remaining cash to her investment accounts, but she declined. She didn’t want to pay yet more management fees. More important, she didn’t want to see her stable cash disappear into the mysterious jungle of managed accounts. There was an alternative. Laura could’ve left her cash in the bank, while shifting the allocation in her investment accounts away from bonds and more toward stocks. Her overall stock exposure would then have been closer to her desired asset allocation. Laura couldn’t tell why this wasn’t done by her old advisor, but she saw no problem in doing it now. Undeterred by the tax consequences, Laura sold…
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Budgeting Time

I WAS FORTUNATE to find enough time during my working years to pursue various hobbies and other personal interests. My part-time work arrangement allowed me to have four-day weekends. I’d hoped that, after retirement, I would have even more time to take on personal projects. But surprisingly, I found myself with less free time. Not only was I failing to start new projects, such as writing software for the website of the nonprofit I cofounded, but also I was struggling to keep up with my current commitments. It stressed me out. An obvious explanation was travel. Since retiring, I’d taken several trips with friends and family, including a few multi-week vacations. I’d also devoted significant time to catching up with old friends. Yet this didn’t fully account for where my time was going, especially during the weeks I was home. I had a similar experience in my career when I first took on a managerial role. Once I became a manager, I found myself struggling to cope with a growing backlog of work. I began each day by preparing a to-do list, only to find that, by the end of the day, most of the items remained untouched. Frustrated and exhausted, I set out to address my time management issue. I resorted to a rather crude method to get to the bottom of it. I meticulously kept a detailed journal to record my activities hour by hour. After maintaining the time log for several weeks, I reviewed it and my problems became self-evident. The primary source of time leakage was my habit of frequently checking emails and rushing to respond to incoming messages as soon as they appeared in my inbox. The second major time drain was attending numerous meetings, many of which weren’t essential. My days were so fragmented…
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Freedom Formula

EARLY RETIREMENT isn’t a common goal among my friends. When I talk about my semi-retirement, many assume I either made a quick buck in the stock market or benefitted from some sort of financial windfall. I counter this misconception by narrating the magic formula: Financial freedom is frugality, multiplied by simplicity, compounded by patience. My response often seems mysterious until I explain the two basic math concepts behind it. We learn them in school, but rarely internalize them. One is simple subtraction and the other is compounding. Subtraction tells us that savings equals income minus spending. The more we save, the faster our nest egg piles up. But looking at it from a savings perspective tells only half the story. If we let our lifestyle grow ever more lavish, even regular salary increases won’t get us to financial freedom any sooner. Indeed, keeping our spending in check has a double benefit. First, a reduction in spending increases our regular savings by the same amount. We can sock away more money and reach our target sooner. Second, lower spending means that we need less to cover our living expenses and that shrinks our target nest egg proportionately. In other words, if we hold down spending, we not only go faster, but also we have less distance to cover. Consider a 25-year-old man and woman, both earning $75,000 a year. To them, financial freedom is about having enough money so that a conservative 3% annual withdrawal rate can cover half of their spending. The man saves 10% of pretax income, while the woman socks away 25%. Let’s assume their savings earn 6% a year. The two charts below track their progress toward financial freedom, with the green bars showing their nest egg's current value and the peach-colored area indicating the sum that…
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Four or Less

A RECENT ARTICLE from Morningstar suggested that the 4% rule for sustainable retirement withdrawals should be revised downward to 3.3%. This lower rate, the researchers argued, is safer given today’s rich stock market valuations and low bond yields. The article also recommended being flexible with withdrawals, by taking larger amounts in good markets and smaller withdrawals during down periods. This strategy could provide more lifetime income than fixing a withdrawal amount in the first year and then automatically increasing that sum each year with inflation. I like simple rules of thumb, but I only use them as ballpark estimates. The old 4% rule provides a quick, back-of-the-envelope sense of our retirement readiness. For instance, if we divide 100 by that 4%, we get 25. The upshot: If we have savings equal to 25 times our average annual spending, or something in that range, we may have enough to quit the workforce. For younger folks, I’d bump up the multiplier in recognition of longer life expectancies. What if our retirement readiness passes this simple sniff-test? Now, it’s time for detailed calculations using individually tailored parameters. A ballpark estimate is not helpful at this stage. My unease with the 4% rule—and I’m not alone—isn't with the number’s accuracy. Rather, I’m uncomfortable with its widespread use as a one-size-fits-all withdrawal strategy. And, no, tweaking the recommended withdrawal rate up or down from a nice whole number to a decimal figure doesn’t necessarily make it more correct. Rather, it can simply create a stronger illusion of accuracy. “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler,” as Albert Einstein may have said. Withdrawal strategies in retirement needn't be too complicated. But a prescribed withdrawal rate—even with some adjustments here or there—strikes me as an over-simplified endeavor.
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Thanks for Nothing

AFTER TAKING THE Series 65 exam in February, I set a goal for 2019: Help 10 friends and family members with their finances. Instead of giving specific investment advice, I wanted to educate them on money matters. I knew that they would benefit from one-on-one discussions, well-regarded books, educational videos and credible websites. But I also suspected that some might hesitate to talk to me about their finances. Nonetheless, I gave it a try. Everyone showed interest and made time—except Aisha, a close friend. She hesitated for two reasons. First, she had a financial advisor and saw little value in educating herself. She figured if she was paying top dollar for advice, she was guaranteed top-notch results. Second, she worried about straining her relationship with her advisor by asking questions she’d never asked before. I insisted that, given the stakes, it was better to be informed than nice. Aisha reluctantly requested that her advisor send along cumulative portfolio performance reports. A little history about Aisha’s investments: Many years ago, she’d received a windfall that she needed to invest. She interviewed a few financial advisors and went with someone who had an impressive job title, a long list of designations and a friendly demeanor. She regularly reviewed her portfolio with the advisor, but never considered there might be performance problems. After all, a paid professional ought to do better than the market, not worse—or so she thought. As it turned out, her portfolio had more than doubled over 16½ years. Aisha was impressed, until she backtested an identical asset allocation—one with half U.S. stocks and half corporate bonds. A 50-50 allocation consisting of just two broadly diversified index funds would have quadrupled her money over the same holding period. She stared at the results in disbelief. The opportunity cost was huge. Why…
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