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Early signs of financial progress are a great motivator. Of course, fear of poverty also works pretty well.

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What’s in your portfolio ?

"60/40 allocation, using SPY, MDY, NHFIX, VNQ, VNQI, VEA, VYMI and VBIAX as my primary investment tools. At the moment, cash is 5%+ as a buffer in retirement a/c's against a sudden correction. International is now approaching 10% as a hedge against the Dollar. Our average annual return over 12 years of retirement has been 8.0%+. Total expenses run about 13 basis points. We also both receive SS and I have a small defined pension benefit from a long ago employer. We have benefitted from a long upward bias in markets, which has allowed us to spend freely and help our son when needed. However, this market is looking a bit long in the tooth and I spend more time thinking about how to better position our investments against a sharp downturn."
- UofODuck
Read more »

He Said I Wasn’t Very Nice

"I seem to remember reading, and I could certainly be wrong, that going door to door was part of their "training"."
- mytimetotravel
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

What Addiction Couldn’t Take: My Sister’s Story

"Thank you Christine for your thoughtful words. One of the lessons that has become clearer to me over the past year is just how precious and uncertain our time together really is. We often assume there will be more conversations, more visits, and more opportunities to say the things we want to say. Tory's passing reminded me to treasure the people I love for exactly who they are, imperfections and all. I appreciate your kindness and condolences."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Leverage

"When torn between two choices, I think one option to explore is to do both. It's like compromise in legislation: neither side feels good, but both sides get something they want. Taking both a smaller loan and drawing down a smaller amount of taxable assets would have given you what you needed but not impacted either bucket as much. Oh, the financial psychology we must endure!"
- Kurt Yokum
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"
The SSA averages your highest 35-years of earnings and then adjusts them to reflect the growth in wages using the AWI – average wage index. 
Actually, you got the order of operations backwards. First, they adjust your earnings history using the AWI and then they computed the average. See the example here Social Security Retirement Benefit Calculation"
- Jim Burrows
Read more »

How financially illiterate are Americans?

"I earned an undergraduate business degree and an MBA. I made many good decisions and some poor ones over the years. I think I learned 20% of what I know from school and the rest on the job. Personal finance is so complicated now that I don't know how a regular person gets it right without expert assistance. As one of my professors once said, "the world is filled with promoters whose only goal is to separate you from your money"."
- Howard Schwartz
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

How well off are Americans compared to the rest of the world? Fun facts.

"Yes, that’s a factor, but so is the lifestyle and conveniences that go with it. I could move to the lowest cost state in the US and live like a king, but would I want to?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

Risk Adjusted: The Family Ledger 

"Mark, another fine piece, thank you. Here is a perspective from the "other side of the coin". Starting in college my dream was for a successful career in corporate America - diligently climbing the ranks until eventually landing in the C-Suite. Upon graduation I set about on my journey, putting in the long hours, taking on the extra projects, and generally doing what was necessary to get noticed and position myself for the next rung in the ladder. Things were going well. Along the way I married (and am still married to the same wonderful woman 44 years later!) and eventually had 2 children. Work and career were going well with increasing levels of responsibility. Then the big day came. I was asked to become the leader for an entire market for the financial services company I was with. The catch: it would mean a move to another state. My boss told me that this was a great opportunity (he was correct) and explained that the executive track I was on required frequent moves once you reached a certain level (I am sure that others in the HD community can relate to this). Driving home I was already thinking about the new position, how I would implement my plans, etc. My wife had other ideas, however. As chief domestic engineer she was thinking about coordinating a move, finding a new home and community, getting the kids settled into a new school, etc., etc. She then asked me, "is it worth it?" This was a question I was not expecting. We talked a lot over the next 24 hours. I declined the promotion. A couple years later I was offered another promotion, which also required a move - I again declined the promotion. I was now off the executive track - no one ever tells you this officially, you just figure it out. Did we make the right decision? Both kids are well-adjusted, married with kids of their own and live about 15 minutes away giving us a lot of "grandkid time" (and some of our nieces and nephews have moved close by with their own families creating a greater sense of a larger family). We remain in the community that we know and love. Our nest egg is large enough to meet all of our expected needs plus some. So by all accounts life has been a success and we are happy. I am thankful and feel incredibly blessed. As a certain sportscaster often says, "take the win!" Yet sometimes in the quiet of late night I will often wonder: what if...what if I had chased the dream? How would things have ended up? I'll never know, and honestly, it occasionally gnaws at me."
- W S Allen
Read more »

A Sunday Thought About Money

"Mike, I just watched that YouTube video, painfully accurate. My granddaughter eats like a food critic who's already decided she hates the restaurant. My wife Suzie's over there stressed out, negotiating with a four-year-old like it's a hostage situation, while I casually point out we've got a full pantry of candy and potato chips, so nobody's wasting away before pickup time. Cue the look from Suzie, you know the one, somewhere between "thanks for the help, Einstein" and "we'll discuss this later." Lol."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"So true that the states need to get their money from somewhere. That said, I'll take my higher Texas property taxes any day over the nearly 10% income tax I was paying in the extremely poorly run state we left over 10 years ago. That state also has a similar sales tax to Texas on top of that. Tipping (which is generally getting out of hand everywhere) is no different based on visits back to the poorly run state. The lower annual car registration tab fee in Texas vs the poorly run state is also a bonus."
- Dunn Werking
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"60/40 allocation, using SPY, MDY, NHFIX, VNQ, VNQI, VEA, VYMI and VBIAX as my primary investment tools. At the moment, cash is 5%+ as a buffer in retirement a/c's against a sudden correction. International is now approaching 10% as a hedge against the Dollar. Our average annual return over 12 years of retirement has been 8.0%+. Total expenses run about 13 basis points. We also both receive SS and I have a small defined pension benefit from a long ago employer. We have benefitted from a long upward bias in markets, which has allowed us to spend freely and help our son when needed. However, this market is looking a bit long in the tooth and I spend more time thinking about how to better position our investments against a sharp downturn."
- UofODuck
Read more »

He Said I Wasn’t Very Nice

"I seem to remember reading, and I could certainly be wrong, that going door to door was part of their "training"."
- mytimetotravel
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

What Addiction Couldn’t Take: My Sister’s Story

"Thank you Christine for your thoughtful words. One of the lessons that has become clearer to me over the past year is just how precious and uncertain our time together really is. We often assume there will be more conversations, more visits, and more opportunities to say the things we want to say. Tory's passing reminded me to treasure the people I love for exactly who they are, imperfections and all. I appreciate your kindness and condolences."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Leverage

"When torn between two choices, I think one option to explore is to do both. It's like compromise in legislation: neither side feels good, but both sides get something they want. Taking both a smaller loan and drawing down a smaller amount of taxable assets would have given you what you needed but not impacted either bucket as much. Oh, the financial psychology we must endure!"
- Kurt Yokum
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"
The SSA averages your highest 35-years of earnings and then adjusts them to reflect the growth in wages using the AWI – average wage index. 
Actually, you got the order of operations backwards. First, they adjust your earnings history using the AWI and then they computed the average. See the example here Social Security Retirement Benefit Calculation"
- Jim Burrows
Read more »

How financially illiterate are Americans?

"I earned an undergraduate business degree and an MBA. I made many good decisions and some poor ones over the years. I think I learned 20% of what I know from school and the rest on the job. Personal finance is so complicated now that I don't know how a regular person gets it right without expert assistance. As one of my professors once said, "the world is filled with promoters whose only goal is to separate you from your money"."
- Howard Schwartz
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

How well off are Americans compared to the rest of the world? Fun facts.

"Yes, that’s a factor, but so is the lifestyle and conveniences that go with it. I could move to the lowest cost state in the US and live like a king, but would I want to?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 33: WE HAVE two great financial advantages: time and our income-earning ability. To grow wealthy, we should take a slice of each month’s earnings—and invest it for as much time as possible.

act

GET ORGANIZED. Keep the backup material for your past seven tax returns. The rest can be tossed. If your brokerage firm and mutual funds provide the cost basis for your investments, there may be no need to keep old statements. Tell your family where they can find your will, a list of your financial accounts, and all your usernames and passwords.

Truths

NO. 76: TAX DEFERRAL lets you use dollars that’ll eventually go to Uncle Sam to earn extra gains for yourself. An example: If you invested $1,000 at 6% a year and paid 22% in taxes every year, you would have $3,944 after 30 years. But if you put off the 22% tax bill for 30 years by funding a tax-deferred retirement account, you’d end up with $4,700, or 19% more.

humans

NO. 75: WE'RE HAPPIER when we count our blessings. All of us have reasons to be happy—we just need to keep those things in mind. If we spend a few minutes pondering our friends and family, the lovely things we own and the great experiences we’ve had, we can squeeze more happiness out of our past spending and get more joy out of each day.

Basics

Manifesto

NO. 33: WE HAVE two great financial advantages: time and our income-earning ability. To grow wealthy, we should take a slice of each month’s earnings—and invest it for as much time as possible.

Spotlight: Abuse

There Be Monsters

I’VE BEEN AWAY FROM the HumbleDollar community for a while. Jiab and I are working on a new book about media literacy, examining the effects of social media influencers on youth consumerism. It will teach kids about responsible web use and how to avoid the traps of the online world.
I’ve learned a lot myself, including lessons that apply both online and IRL, short for “in real life.” As part of our research,

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Buckeye Burglar

“DEAR OHIOAN: According to our records, you have applied for and/or received pandemic unemployment benefits.” As I haven’t been to Ohio in more than 20 years, I knew something was amiss. It was highly likely I was the victim of identify fraud. After some investigation, I found out someone had been receiving unemployment benefits in my name since March 2021.
I’m hardly the only person victimized by this fraud. In a recent report, Ohio Auditor Keith Faber estimated that $3.8 billion in fraudulent unemployment payments and overpayments had been made since March 2020.

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A Dirty Business

ON MONDAY, MAY 2, I logged onto my Chase bank account—and discovered my balance was $992.43, many thousands of dollars less than I expected. My first thought: I’m going to get hit with a low-balance fee.
That, alas, should have been the least of my worries.
I clicked through to see the account details, and discovered that check No. 1126 had been made out to Milton Cherry for $7,000. But none of the writing on the check was mine,

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Lost Property

OUR COMMUNITY HAS a Facebook-like online forum called Nextdoor. I tend to ignore the posts, which usually involve things like items for sale and new restaurant openings. But a recent post caught my eye—because it was from the Montgomery County Recorder of Deeds.
The article said Pennsylvania’s Attorney General had initiated a lawsuit against a realty company for deceptive practices targeting elderly, low-income and minority homeowners. The realty company was offering a “Homeowner Benefit Program” that gives homeowners anywhere from $400 to $1,000 upfront to lock into a contract.

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Facebook Users, Beware! There’s a Scam Afoot!

Being my father’s son and of Scottish heritage, I consider myself to be extremely wary when it comes to falling prey to the grifters and scammers of the world. But this morning, I almost got taken.
I was scrolling through my Facebook feed to see what was going on when I came across a post from an acquaintance who I went to high school with announcing that her family was clearing out items from her father’s house.

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Avoiding Bad Guys

MONEY MANAGERS Raj Rajaratnam and Joel Greenblatt share a number of similarities. They’re almost exactly the same age. Both received business degrees from the University of Pennsylvania, and both started well-known hedge funds. But the similarities end there.
During the 10 years that Greenblatt operated his fund, Gotham Capital, it delivered returns averaging 50% a year, versus 10% for the S&P 500. Thanks to his success, Greenblatt retired from full-time work in 1994 at age 37.

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Spotlight: Quinn

An Annuity Instead?

IN A RECENT ONLINE discussion, I compared the benefits of an immediate-fixed annuity with the 4% retirement-income rule. The 4% rule suggests that investors can withdraw 4% from a well-balanced investment portfolio in the first year of retirement, and then add annual inflation adjustments without fear of running out of money over a 30-year retirement. Using the NewRetirement annuity calculator, I found that a 65-year-old man could purchase an immediate annuity for $1 million, with a 3% annual inflation adjustment, and receive initial income of $54,000 a year. This annuity would continue monthly payments to our 65-year-old’s heirs if he died before getting back the entire $1 million through annuity payments. Compare that with the $40,000 initial payment he’d receive on the same $1 million using the 4% rule. While the 4% rule allows withdrawals to increase each year to offset inflation, it still offers less income and less certainty than the annuity. For many, I believe, the annuity’s guaranteed and growing income should be more attractive than accepting the risk that the 4% strategy won’t pan out. But most people in the discussion group disagreed with me, and strongly so. The response—often repeated—was, “The insurance company may go bankrupt.” Yes, that could happen. But the fact is, only three to five annuity-issuing insurance companies have failed over the past 10 years. These were small companies you’ve likely never heard of. The exact number of failures is unclear because some of the insurers in question are still winding down their operations. But while everday investors may worry that annuity insurers will fail, large corporations seem unconcerned. Several years ago, IBM bought $16 billion in annuities from Prudential Financial for its employees’ pensions. My former employer did the same this year for $2 billion. It’s fair to say that the chances…
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Leaves Me Cold

ALTHOUGH IT'S ONLY been a few months since I first heard the term, I’m already tired of all the chatter about the financial independence/retire early (FIRE) movement. This so-called movement is so irrelevant that I don’t know why anybody, including me, writes about it—and yet my curmudgeonly instincts compel me to do so. Don’t characterize me as a movement hater. To each his own. But consider a recent story in MarketWatch about a couple—he’s age 44, she’s 33, plus they have a small child—who plan to retire next year. My reaction: Simply being frugal for the next 45 years isn’t enough. There’s a lot more you need to think about. For instance, if you’re truly retired, what are you going to do, sit on a beach for eight hours a day? I’m all for frugality. But then I read about FIRE devotees giving up luxury items and it all seems a bit pompous to me. Let me get this straight: You give up stuff to live on a tiny percentage of what you make—but that tiny percentage turns out to be pretty close to what the average American earns in total. Then there’s the family thing. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Those FIRE folks aren’t couples with three kids to schlep from soccer to dance class. Often, they aren’t funding 529 plans, because there are no children or they’re planning to make the kids take out loans. I love the simplicity of FIRE thinking: Save 40% to 70% of your income for several years. The goal: Accumulate enough funds so that 4% of your nest egg equals what you spend each year. Bingo, you’re set for life. That 4% rule is supposed to keep 65-year-olds from running out of money during a 25- or 30-year retirement. But is it enough…
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Tortoises Needed

I HAVE A FRIVOLOUS routine. I buy $40 in lottery tickets on the first day of each month. Many years ago, this was part of my retirement plan—the years when I was young and foolish, or maybe just foolish. For as long as I can recall, I’ve had a premonition of receiving $14 million, either from a long-lost relative or from the lottery. Time is running out, however. That relative appears to have forgotten about me. Meanwhile, I’ve given up on the big lottery prize and would happily settle for a modest $5 million. Maybe it’s a good thing I maxed out my 401(k). My controlled addiction to a fast lottery buck is hardly unique. Still, I find it fascinating that many people will play the lottery in search of easy money, but fail to invest prudently for fear of losing money in the stock market. When I “invest” that $40 each month, I know I’m virtually guaranteed to lose it. “According to Bloomberg research, the average lottery player in America loses roughly $0.40 for every $1 in tickets purchased,” opines a writer for the Motley Fool. “Talk about a bad return on investment.” If you divide total spending on lottery tickets by the U.S. population, you get an average spend of $207 per capita. But it varies by state. Massachusetts is the highest at $735 per capita. About half of adults play the lottery, including 40% of those earning less than $36,000 per year. Nationwide, people who make less than $10,000 spend an average $597 on lottery tickets, equal to 6% of income. That’s hard to believe. These gamblers are among the people we assume to have no money to save and invest. It seems the allure of quick wealth overpowers our ability to weigh risk against reward. It also…
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Quinn ponders a taxing situation. Loopholes and such. Is there a better way?

I started listing the various taxes Americans pay, but gave up rather quickly. It’s a long list and some of them are a bit obscure like hotel room taxes, taxes on phone bills, a tax on scrapped tires and such. Of course there are Social Security and Medicare taxes as well. I paid $98,080 in Medicare taxes during my working life - one of those big scary numbers. 😎 What the US doesn’t have is Value Added Tax (VAT) - national sales tax - common in many other countries at 18% to 25%. Many Americans are surprised to learn the US is one of the lowest taxed countries in the world - and near the top in accumulated debt.  Few people like taxes, but most of us - far from all - understand the need for taxes and what they provide - it too is a long list. No doubt there could be a lengthy discussion on the fairness of taxes though. Social media posts demonstrate interesting views at times.  “Why should I pay taxes on my home value? I’m 65, why do I pay school taxes? Why is any of my Social Security taxed? I heard billionaires pay less in taxes than teachers - yeah, I don’t think so. Taxes are a ripoff. Why is my 401k taxed as ordinary income - good question? I paid for Medicare in payroll taxes, why do I have to pay a premium?” Here is a recent favorite of mine. “Making retired folks pay taxes while lazy college grads get free money is the most un-American thing imaginable!” To muddy the waters, current rhetoric talks about not taxing certain income like tips and taxing what is earned but only on paper, not realized. When I hear that concept I wonder what happens when…
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Tithing is a mistake … for some people. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for giving to charity, but I would never give 10% of gross income plus we are very selective about the charities we give to. We look to those that can best directly serve people. St Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital is our priority. In my opinion, tithing 10% can create undue pressure and financial hardship and a skewing of priorities.  To me the first priority is family and their security and eventually helping children and grandchildren when appropriate. The second is your retirement. Achieving financial independence to the extent a person does not become a burden on others or society is the goal.  As I see it …paying your debts, avoiding unnecessary debt, educating your children, saving for retirement all come first before tithing.  If a person can tithe 10% of gross income while meeting all other obligations and financial priorities, good for them. They did better than we did. It’s the pressure on those who can’t handle that commitment that I worry about. 
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Very disturbing proposal about the future of Social – radical thinking for sure.

On my blog today I have a piece on a radical and very disturbing proposal from the CBO to change Social Security. The story originally appeared on MarketWatch. There is a tinge of politics, so I am not posting it directly, but if Social Security is a concern, you might want to take a look on Quinnscommentary.net The link goes directly to the article  
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