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Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

"DrLefty I have been reading financial information for decades and consider myself pretty capable of breaking down fairly complex information. However It would probably take me at least half a day to sit and untangle this web, but I have no interest. This is why I wrote about my wife contacting our estate attorney. This is a case where the attorney earns every penny of their high fees."
- David Lancaster
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Financial Tension

"“There have always been men and women who earned great sums and gave great sums. They didn’t resolve the tension between earning and giving. They accepted it, even leaned into it.” Another person who was vilified for being a robber baron (Standard Oil) was John D Rockefeller Sr.. I just finished his biography by Chernow. In it I learned that he also was “shaped by Christian convictions about stewardship and generosity.” One of his major creations was the Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research founded in 1901 which was the first institution focused on biomedical research renowned for pioneering studies in biology, medicine, and disease, producing 24 Nobel laureates. He actually hired a full time person with the sole position being to give away Rockefeller’s vast wealth. Prior to this medicine wasn’t really based on scientific research according to Chernow."
- David Lancaster
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Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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A Bit More Humble

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
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One Good Call?

"As a long-time client of a flat fee retirement financial planner, investment management is far down the list of reasons why we use his services. Many flat fee advisors use a simple passive investment approach that many DIYers use that is aligned with the client's goals and the financial plan developed from them. Well above investment in prioritization for us is developing a clear written financial plan based on goals and, in no particular order, tax planning and optimization, estate planning, cash flow analysis, health and long-term care and risk management, amongst many others. A thought leader in the flat fee planning world, Andy Panko, who has a financialplanningeducation website and FB group, wrote an article about the "value" of a planner a few years ago which basically concludes much of the value cannot be measured quantitatively. How Much Are Your Services Worth?, Financial Planning Articles for Financial Advisors & Wealth Managers"
- Rob Jennings
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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"This behavior also speaks to waste. Why waste the last bit of toothpaste in the tube? It is not always about the cost of something it is often using it up. When the dish soap bottle is empty, I fill it half way with water, shake and use the last of the soap. It takes very little time and I believe I've used it up. I'm not wasting. Going to a concert, lunch with friends-that's not a waste of money that's an investment in friendship."
- moonwalkerdaughter
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Carrying Humble Dollar Forward

"I used to read Jonathan's column in the WSJ -- and felt, isn't it great that the august Wall Street Journal, which I thought of as catering to the wealthy, also gave space to the idea that "getting going" was something a lot of readers needed! Now that I'm a couple of years into retirement (which happened somewhat accidentally, but I like it so far), I'm thankful for his practical, steady advice about how to... get going and make a nest egg gradually appear out of nothing. Now that I don't have a paycheck anymore, having a calm, rational approach to investing is even more important -- so let's keep this conversation going!"
- urbie53ca4a2392
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Scent of a Cheapskate: Frugality Gone Wrong

"Honestly, you risked being badly burned and could have harmed those nearby. Not a job for an amateur."
- D.J.
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What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

"I spent a year in Vietnam in 1967. I dont believe Ive had a more insightful year in my life. There's hardly a day go by when I'm not reminded of those days, those poor war torn people. The year changed me no doubt, mostly for the better after some aging. I recommend everyone spend at least weeks in third world country."
- Bob Smith
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Social Security Survivor Benefits for Spouses

"Thank you, James, and everyone I spoke to, whether from Social Security, insurance companies or banks, was always polite and helpful."
- Linda Grady
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Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

"DrLefty I have been reading financial information for decades and consider myself pretty capable of breaking down fairly complex information. However It would probably take me at least half a day to sit and untangle this web, but I have no interest. This is why I wrote about my wife contacting our estate attorney. This is a case where the attorney earns every penny of their high fees."
- David Lancaster
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Financial Tension

"“There have always been men and women who earned great sums and gave great sums. They didn’t resolve the tension between earning and giving. They accepted it, even leaned into it.” Another person who was vilified for being a robber baron (Standard Oil) was John D Rockefeller Sr.. I just finished his biography by Chernow. In it I learned that he also was “shaped by Christian convictions about stewardship and generosity.” One of his major creations was the Rockefeller Institute for Medical Research founded in 1901 which was the first institution focused on biomedical research renowned for pioneering studies in biology, medicine, and disease, producing 24 Nobel laureates. He actually hired a full time person with the sole position being to give away Rockefeller’s vast wealth. Prior to this medicine wasn’t really based on scientific research according to Chernow."
- David Lancaster
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Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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A Bit More Humble

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
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One Good Call?

"As a long-time client of a flat fee retirement financial planner, investment management is far down the list of reasons why we use his services. Many flat fee advisors use a simple passive investment approach that many DIYers use that is aligned with the client's goals and the financial plan developed from them. Well above investment in prioritization for us is developing a clear written financial plan based on goals and, in no particular order, tax planning and optimization, estate planning, cash flow analysis, health and long-term care and risk management, amongst many others. A thought leader in the flat fee planning world, Andy Panko, who has a financialplanningeducation website and FB group, wrote an article about the "value" of a planner a few years ago which basically concludes much of the value cannot be measured quantitatively. How Much Are Your Services Worth?, Financial Planning Articles for Financial Advisors & Wealth Managers"
- Rob Jennings
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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"This behavior also speaks to waste. Why waste the last bit of toothpaste in the tube? It is not always about the cost of something it is often using it up. When the dish soap bottle is empty, I fill it half way with water, shake and use the last of the soap. It takes very little time and I believe I've used it up. I'm not wasting. Going to a concert, lunch with friends-that's not a waste of money that's an investment in friendship."
- moonwalkerdaughter
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Carrying Humble Dollar Forward

"I used to read Jonathan's column in the WSJ -- and felt, isn't it great that the august Wall Street Journal, which I thought of as catering to the wealthy, also gave space to the idea that "getting going" was something a lot of readers needed! Now that I'm a couple of years into retirement (which happened somewhat accidentally, but I like it so far), I'm thankful for his practical, steady advice about how to... get going and make a nest egg gradually appear out of nothing. Now that I don't have a paycheck anymore, having a calm, rational approach to investing is even more important -- so let's keep this conversation going!"
- urbie53ca4a2392
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Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

act

CHECK YOUR FUND expenses. If you own index funds, aim for weighted average annual expenses below 0.15%. If you own active funds, you’ll pay more—but allocate enough to index funds to push your portfolio average below 0.4%. By holding down costs, you’ll keep more of what you make, plus low-cost funds typically beat high-cost competitors.

Truths

NO. 22: MONEY BUYS happiness, but this could be partly explained by a focusing illusion: When asked about their happiness, the wealthy ponder their good fortune, prompting them to say they’re happy. Moreover, research suggests happiness doesn't rise in lockstep with income. Instead, as our income increases, it takes more and more dollars to boost our happiness.

think

SIGNALING. How we spend and invest our money often has less to do with what we want—and instead it's driven more by the signals we want to send to others. Owning a hedge fund signals we’re wealthy. Driving a Prius signals we’re concerned about the environment. Going to a classical music concert tells our friends that we’re cultured.

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Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

Spotlight: Markets

Asset Protection Ideas

MANY PEOPLE FOCUS on building wealth through asset allocation and investment choices. Far fewer think about asset protection. In my opinion, protecting wealth is just as important as building it, especially since decades of disciplined saving and investing can be undone in one unfortunate event.
In this article, I wanted to discuss some of the strategies and tips that I’ve learned, and implemented in my personal finance journey.
Quick disclaimer: I’m not a lawyer,

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HSA Tips

HEALTH SAVINGS ACCOUNT (HSA) is the most efficient tax-advantaged investment account because it offers a triple tax advantage:

Contributions are tax-deductible
Earnings grow tax-free
Withdrawals are tax-free if used for medical expenses

One of the best uses of an HSA is to actually invest the balance.
For example, I keep $500 (the minimum required balance) in cash. The rest, I invest in low-cost index funds. This allows me to maximize compounding inside the HSA account.

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Resist the Urge to Act

BEFORE WE GET into it, a brief word. We lost Jonathan last year, and those of us who followed his work felt it more than we perhaps expected.  He had a saying that I always liked – that there are really only twenty stories in personal finance, and the financial industry spends most of its time telling them on repeat in slightly different hats. He was right, of course. He usually was.
It struck me that a fitting tribute might be to take his core principles and do something with them,

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Decision Frameworks

IN THE SUMMER of 1966, author John McPhee spent two weeks lying on a picnic table in his backyard. Why?
McPhee was suffering from writer’s block. As he described it, “I had assembled enough material to fill a silo, and now I had no idea what to do with it.”
Investors find themselves in a similar situation today. There’s no shortage of financial information around us. But that doesn’t make it easier to know what to do with it. 

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The Boy Who Couldn’t Risk

I prepared this article  as “homework” for a personal finance elective at a college-preparatory high school I might be contributing to in the Fall. Perhaps it would be helpful to parents whose kids are smitten with the Magnificent 7 or crypto.
After a stock market decline, people may perceive more risk than before, when the decline may have taken some of the risk out of the market.
—Robert Shiller
The investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is himself.

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Interest Rates Battle

EARLIER THIS WEEK, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee met and decided to lower interest rates by a quarter-point. This immediately sparked a war of words.
At a press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell took a swipe at the White House, blaming the president’s new tariff policies for an uptick in inflation.
President Trump wasted no time in responding. All year, he has been lobbying Fed officials to move rates lower. And while they have been taking steps in that direction,

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Spotlight: Housley

Trading 24/7?

I was reminded recently of how far stock trading has come when I inherited a small stack of old stock certificates from my great-uncle Billy. They were dated between 1927 and 1931, right through the turbulent years of the Great Depression. One was for a railroad, issued by Citibank itself. And yes—I checked—they’re now completely worthless. But holding those fragile pieces of paper in my hands brought history to life. Back then, making a trade was slow, costly, and out of reach for most people. Orders were handled with paper tickets and phone calls, commissions often ran around one percent of the trade’s value, and it could take days before ownership was officially confirmed. Over the decades, technology and regulation transformed both the cost and speed of trading. The first big shift came in the 1970s, when fixed commissions were abolished. For the first time, brokers could compete on price, and discount firms began offering lower-cost services. In the 1990s, the rise of online platforms allowed everyday investors to place their own orders with just a click, driving prices down further. By the 2000s, trades could be made for less than ten dollars and executed within seconds. The final plunge in cost came in the 2010s, when new platforms introduced zero-commission trading. Established firms followed suit, and today buying or selling a stock can be done instantly and without any direct fee. What once cost the equivalent of thousands of dollars now costs nothing at all. And yet, one part of the old system remains: settlement. While an order today executes in milliseconds, the official transfer of ownership and cash still takes time. The United States recently shortened the process from two business days to just one. The next step being discussed is “T+0,” or same-day settlement, and eventually real-time…
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What Kind of Loss Is This?

On Tuesday, I underwent a partial knee replacement on my right knee. It was a necessary step after more than a year—perhaps longer—of persistent pain that disrupted my sleep and made daily walks nearly impossible. But here’s the twist: while the surgery was meant to relieve my suffering, the post-operative pain is even more intense. Even with strong medication, it’s a new level of discomfort. And physical therapy? That promises its own form of agony for the next three months. After that, I’ll go through it all again with my left knee. So, in essence, I traded a long-term, chronic pain for a sharper, more intense—but temporary—one. A lifetime of suffering exchanged for a concentrated period of hardship with the promise of relief. What kind of loss is this? How do we define it? And more importantly—doesn’t this feel familiar? Markets experience pain too. Long-term economic drags, unsustainable trends, and financial misalignments eventually reach a breaking point. Sometimes, the market chooses to rip the Band-Aid off—an intense, painful correction in exchange for future stability. Is that what’s happening now? Are we enduring a necessary, short-term pain that ultimately leads to a stronger foundation? I certainly hope so. Because in both surgery and investing, the goal isn’t just to avoid pain—it’s to ensure a healthier future. WDH
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It’s Never Too Late

On January 1, 2004, a friend of mine was 46 years old. His IRA balance stood at $3,055. He admitted he’d been late to the retirement game. “Beyond scared” might be more accurate. Reality had caught up with him. He felt behind and wasn’t sure it was even worth trying. It would have been easy to ignore the problem. To assume it was hopeless. Instead, he began contributing to his company’s IRA. He stayed invested. He let time and compounding do their quiet work. There was nothing flashy about it—just discipline and patience. Through the financial crisis of 2008–09, the COVID plunge and other market corrections along the way, he didn’t look and he didn’t stop. Every two weeks, money went into his account from his paycheck. Today, his account stands at $961,680. Why tell this story? Because you may know someone in their 30s or 40s who quietly believes they’ve already missed their chance. They feel behind. They feel embarrassed. So they do nothing. Over the years, I’ve come to think of change as a simple formula: Δ = 𝑓(Ds + V + Fs) Where Δ is change. Ds is dissatisfaction with the current situation. V is vision of what could be. Fs is the first steps. Most people already have the dissatisfaction. What they lack is a hopeful vision—and clarity about how to begin. Sometimes the most helpful words aren’t, “You should be saving more.” Instead, try: “Help me understand how you’re doing in preparing for retirement.” That question might open the door. You can then share a story like this—and perhaps help someone take that first step. It’s never too late to start.
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The Victim Might Be You

Who Is the Victim of a Ponzi Scheme? Age: Often 50 or older, particularly retirees looking for stable income or to preserve capital. Education: Many victims are college-educated—some with advanced degrees. Financial Status: Typically middle to upper-middle class, with meaningful retirement savings or liquid assets. Investment Experience: Usually have some experience, but not deep technical knowledge—confident, but not always skeptical. Sounds like a typical HumbleDollar reader, doesn’t it? Each year, 20 to 40 Ponzi schemes are uncovered in the U.S., though the true number may be higher due to underreporting and undetected cases. Based on historical patterns: Small schemes are usually exposed within 1 to 3 years. Mid-sized schemes tend to last 3 to 5 years. Large-scale frauds can run unchecked for 10 to 20 years. Notable examples: Bernie Madoff: Operated for 17–20 years, defrauding investors of an estimated $65 billion (including fictional profits). Allen Stanford: Ran a 15–20 year scheme involving about $7 billion in losses. Tom Petters: Lasted roughly a decade, with losses around $3.65 billion. If we assume 30 schemes are discovered each year and each one lasts around 5 years, that implies there may be about 150 active Ponzi schemes in the U.S. at any given time. With each scheme affecting 50 to 200 people, that puts an estimated 7,500 to 30,000 people currently invested in active Ponzi schemes—completely unaware their money is at risk. How Much Do Victims Lose? Typical individual losses range from $20,000 to $100,000, though some victims—especially retirees or those targeted by trusted advisors—lose far more. In 2020 alone, over $3.5 billion in losses were tied to reported Ponzi schemes, according to data compiled by regulatory agencies and sites like Ponzitracker.com. In larger schemes, victims have lost entire retirement accounts, life savings, or in some cases, millions. Who Are the Schemers? Ponzi…
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Thanksgiving: The Keeping Story

And now… the rest of the story. Good day. It is a very good day. It was November, 1621. Ninety Wampanoag warriors and their chief, Massasoit, sat down with fifty-one Pilgrims for a three-day feast of deer, wild turkey, and corn the Indians had taught them to grow. The history books call it “The First Thanksgiving.” And it was… glorious. Laughter, gun salutes, archery contests, and tables groaning with food. What the paintings don’t show is that half the Pilgrims who had arrived the year before were already dead. Starvation had taken them. And the ones still alive? They were one bad harvest away from joining them. Why were they starving in a land overflowing with game and fish and fertile soil? Because of an idea. A very modern idea. Communal property. When the Pilgrims stepped off the Mayflower, their contract with the investors back in London required everything they produced (every bushel of corn, every fish, every board they sawed) to go into a common store. Each family got an equal share, no matter how much, or how little, they worked. Governor William Bradford wrote later that the system was “found to breed much confusion and discontent, and retard much employment.” The young men asked, “Why should I bust my back all day when the lazy guy next door gets the same ration?” The women said, “I’m not hauling water and hoeing corn so someone else’s kids can eat it.” Even the teenage boys refused to work. Bradford said the result was plain: “much hunger and nakedness.” So in the spring of 1623, after two winters of famine, Bradford did something radical. He broke the contract. He gave every family their own plot of land. Plant what you want. Keep what you grow. Trade the surplus if you wish.…
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Everything About Retirement on a 3×5 card

Here's the 3x5 card challenge: Summarize everything essential for retirement on a 3x5 card, and then share your summary here. For the sake of this post, please limit your advice to eight to ten bullet points. This is the first in a series of posts on: Everything You Need to Know on a 3x5 Card. Have fun… Bill
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