Stocks on Sale
James Kerr | Jun 13, 2022
YOU MIGHT WANT TO check your mailbox. Mr. Market has been sending around a book of discount coupons on some great index funds and individual stocks. Twenty-two percent off the S&P 500's closing high set earlier this year. Seventeen percent off the Dow Jones Industrial Average. How about a whopping 33% off the Nasdaq Composite? Still kicking yourself for not scooping up Amazon’s stock (symbol: AMZN) in early 2020 when it was—adjusted for the recent stock split—below $100? Well, it’s almost there now. How about some Apple stock (AAPL) at $132, nearly 28% off its 52-week high? Or PayPal (PYPL) below $74, a whopping 76% price cut from a year ago? Yes, it’s sale time in stock-land. We’re officially in a bear market and good stocks and index funds everywhere are selling at a discount, some even at fire-sale prices. We all knew it was coming. After all, markets don’t go in a straight line to Nirvana. We were overdue for a correction. These are the times that try the souls of market timers but make investors’ eyes light up. Who doesn’t love a good sale? When the sellers are running to the exits, long-term investors rush in, looking to put to work that cash they’ve been holding on the sidelines. As they like to say on Wall Street, bear markets are when stocks return to their rightful owners. Maybe you’ve been putting off getting into the market because it felt overbought. Maybe you didn’t buy during past market swoons and didn’t benefit from the sharp recoveries that followed, and you’ve always regretted it. Now is your opportunity. What better time than when stocks are selling at a discount? Oh, but this crash is different, you say. Today, we have out-of-control inflation. We have a war in Ukraine. We have major…
Read more » Only an Eight
James Kerr | Mar 11, 2022
WHEN I STOPPED AT CVS the other day to pick up a new charging cable for my iPhone, I was reminded just how woefully out of fashion I am. The young lady behind the counter handed me a box from the rack and watched as I took the cable out to make sure it was the right one. I guessed her to be in her early 20s. She was wearing a pair of those huge loopy earrings that you could jump hoops through out in the parking lot. When she saw me bring out my phone, she gave a little laugh. “Is that an iPhone 8?” she asked with genuine amazement. I looked at the phone in my hand, then back at her. “Yup,” I replied. “Wow,” she said. “It’s been like years since I saw somebody with an iPhone 8. Why haven’t you upgraded?” By now, I was feeling a little self-conscious. Would she make fun of my reading glasses too? The boring dad haircut that I’d gotten at Hair Cuttery for $25? The clothes that I wear over and over because they’re comfortable and I’m too cheap to buy new ones? But I steeled myself and told her there was no need to upgrade because my phone worked just fine. I was able to do everything I needed to do on my iPhone 8, and it also takes pretty darn good pictures. Plus, it was paid off, and I wasn’t particularly eager to take on a new monthly payment now that I’m semi-retired and living off my savings. “I’ll replace it when it breaks,” I said. “I do that with everything.” It’s true. I like to get my money’s worth from things and tend to hang on to them until they die—phones, cars, old pairs of jeans. It’s…
Read more » Chasing Yield
James Kerr | Mar 31, 2023
THREE YEARS AGO this month, in the middle of the pandemic-driven market meltdown, I went on a dividend-stock buying spree. I had just turned 60 and was looking to step away from the corporate world in 18 months’ time to take up a second-act career as an author. As part of my retirement plan, I had a sizable money-market account that I planned to live on for a few years before I started taking Social Security and pulling from my retirement accounts. The money-market account wasn’t paying much—about a half-percentage point—but I knew the cash was secure, which was important as I stepped away from a steady paycheck. Then COVID-19 hit. Stocks nosedived and government bond yields plummeted as investors rushed for safety. Everywhere I looked, I saw quality, blue-chip stocks trading at huge discounts. Many of these stocks were dividend aristocrats with a long, unbroken record of steadily increasing their dividends. Exxon, for instance, was trading in the mid-$30 range. The stock of pharma giant AbbVie was trading in the upper $60 range. Coca-Cola was trading under $40. Some of these dividend stocks were yielding close to 6% at these distressed prices. Being a bit of a contrarian by nature, I began to question why I was holding cash in a money-market account where I was earning next to nothing when I could be getting a 5% or 6% yield, with upside potential when the stock market came back. It was risky, yes. Some of these companies could cut their dividends or stop paying them altogether. There were rumors that Exxon, for example, would be cutting its dividend for the first time in nearly 40 years, which was why its stock was trading at such a discount. Still, the risk-reward calculus of buying quality dividend stocks at beaten-down prices just seemed…
Read more » Where Value Ends
James Kerr | Feb 17, 2023
I RECENTLY HAD a revelation about my adult children: When it comes to money, they’re a lot like me—and that’s both a good thing and a bad thing. I had this revelation while dining with my 25-year-old son at a sports bar over the New Year’s holiday. The food was marginal—it was a sports bar, after all—but the plates came loaded with food. What’s more, the prices were quite reasonable, especially compared to those in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., where Liam spends the bulk of his time these days. All of this made him quite happy. He has, he told me, three criteria for what constitutes value while eating out. The quantity of food comes first. Second is whether the cost is reasonable. The quality of the cuisine comes last on his list. In other words, he could get outstanding food, but it would fail his value test if he didn’t get enough of it. His meal would really be a loser, value wise, if that superb-but-stingy dish also cost too much. Now, let it be said that Liam is currently a law student and has no money. It could be that his criteria will change when he’s a bigshot lawyer earning lots of money, and can afford the best chefs and restaurants in the land. But I doubt financial success will change his mindset. Why? Because he’s my son, and his frugal, value-based way of looking at money happens to come from me. I’ve always been conservative about finances. It’s something I learned early on from my thrifty parents, who never made much money but were somehow able to make ends meet for a hungry family of eight. Through my folks, I learned the importance of working hard, living simply and below your means, paying the bills on time,…
Read more » The Road Not Taken
James Kerr | Oct 9, 2023
LAST MONTH MARKED two years since I leapt into the unknown and left the security of the corporate world to begin a second act as an independent writer. How’s it gone? Have things panned out as I hoped, financially and otherwise? Let’s be clear upfront that this move was never about making money. It was about taking a shot at my long-held dream of being an author. I’d put that dream on the back burner for three decades as I did what was necessary to support my family. Now, with my kids out of college and some savings in my pocket, I wanted to take a chance on myself before I ran out of time. I didn’t want to get to the end of my life and find I’d never taken a shot at living life on my own terms. Two years later, I’ve achieved things that money can’t buy: Seeing my first book in print and my blog gain a dedicated following Going to book signings and readings, and interacting with readers and followers Spending my days pursuing my passions rather than managing emails and responding to the latest corporate fire drill Having the chance to travel and spend precious time with my kids, including camping for an entire month under the big skies of Colorado, where my middle son lives. It’s safe to say I wouldn’t have been able to do any of these things if I was still running 12 hours a day on the corporate hamster wheel. But I’d be fooling myself if I said that all these things didn’t come at a price. I haven’t made a penny on my book, which is still earning back its upfront costs for the publisher, or on my blog, which is ad- and subscription-free. My current writing project is a multigenerational novel…
Read more » Reclaiming My Life
James Kerr | Sep 7, 2021
A STRANGE THING is happening in corporate America right now. The job market is booming, and companies are offering bonuses and salary increases to find and keep good people. Yet experienced workers are leaving their jobs in droves. The Labor Department reported that a record number of Americans have recently quit their jobs, part of what pundits are calling “the Great Resignation.” I’m one of them. After 30 years leading global communications and public relations programs for multi-billion-dollar technology companies, I’m stepping down as PR chief for a large financial technology corporation. Next up: I’m driving to Colorado to spend a month with my son. I don’t have anything lined up other than hiking, flyfishing, fall foliage watching and working on the novel I’ve been trying to get to for months. What’s going on? Experts say the global pandemic is causing people across all walks of life to reassess what’s important in their lives and careers. Personally, I suspect there’s more at work here than a health crisis. I think a lot of people are just plain burned out. In the wake of the Great Recession of 2007-09, more Americans than ever before went to work for large companies. When the global financial system is melting down and other firms are laying off, there’s security in riding the back of a corporate leviathan. Big companies also have the leverage to negotiate richer medical plans and benefit packages on behalf of their employees. For anyone with a family, those benefits are gold at times of uncertainty. Fast forward to 2021 and things look a lot different, both for employers and their workers. Whatever fat was on the bones of the corporate leviathans is long gone. Over the past decade, big public companies have methodically pruned their operations to lean perfection. They’re…
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