Summer Lull
Mike Zaccardi | Aug 15, 2021
REMEMBER 2020’S BIG market swings? Financial markets have been more boring of late. But are things too quiet? The VIX is the most commonly cited indicator of market volatility. Turn on CNBC or flip through The Wall Street Journal and you’ll likely learn the latest reading for the “fear gauge.” Last Friday's close was among the lowest of the year, with the VIX at a little more than 15, versus an historical average closer to 20. Things have indeed been calm. A VIX in the low to mid-teens suggests market participants believe stocks won’t be too volatile in the near term. For perspective, it spiked above 80 during 2008’s financial crisis and 2020’s COVID-19 crash. This time of year can be feast or famine for stock market volatility. Trading volume is typically lower than usual, with many investors away on vacation—or, at least, that’s the default explanation. August is also a time that can precede significant volatility. September and October are infamous for featuring bouts of wild market movements. Don’t feel the need to check the VIX each day. Here’s why. Do check that your portfolio aligns with your ability, willingness and need to take risk. If you haven’t done so lately, consider rebalancing back to your target asset allocation. Whenever volatility returns, you don’t want to discover that your holdings were riskier than you thought. Nobody knows if a prolonged market correction is imminent, but there might be some reversion to the mean before long. Use these calmer days to ensure your stock-bond mix is where it ought to be.
Read more » Rattled by Rates
Mike Zaccardi | Mar 28, 2022
IT’S BEEN A STUNNING quarter for the bond market. According to Bloomberg, short-term interest rates have seen their biggest jump since 1984, as measured by the yield on two-year Treasury notes, which now stands at around 2.3%. The rise this time around seems especially sharp, considering how low yields were at the start of 2022. Back in the early 1980s, the two-year Treasury yielded north of 10%, versus barely above 0% at times last year. We could see yet more bond market volatility, with key data points such as final fourth-quarter gross domestic product and March’s employment report hitting later in the week. One consequence of rising yields has been higher mortgage rates. Consumers can get updates on conventional loans each afternoon. Friday’s update was particularly jarring: The 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage nearly touched 5% and is now at its highest level since late 2018. Freddie Mac also publishes a weekly report on Thursdays. Should mortgage rates climb much above 5%, that would mark the highest borrowing costs in more than a decade. For potential home buyers, soaring property prices are adding to their misery. We’ll get the latest reading on the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index on Tuesday morning. The consensus estimate says home values rose 18.3% over the 12 months through January. Consumers aren’t exactly taking the rising interest-rate environment, triggered by high inflation, in stride. February’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading of 59.4 was the bleakest since August 2011’s 55.8. That’s when the U.S. debt downgrade occurred and the European sovereign debt crisis was ongoing. Despite low unemployment and somewhat resilient stock prices, rising consumer prices and unstable geopolitical conditions continue to weigh on consumers. The first quarter has been no cakewalk for stock investors, either. The good news is that the volatility index…
Read more » Coming Together
Mike Zaccardi | Jun 19, 2023
I GOT CAUGHT UP IN some weird investment fads during the recent era of 0% interest rates. With cash investments and bonds yielding almost nothing, I instead sought to pad my investment returns by opening new brokerage accounts to snag promotion cash, and by dabbling in digital currencies and newfangled alternative investments. Result? I ended up with far too many financial accounts—and it became a burden to keep track of everything. Just a year ago, I had investments in obscure real estate deals, individual pieces of art, bottles of wine, stablecoins and other relics of the speculative pandemic-era mania. What's more, after leaving both my fulltime job and my teaching position at the University of North Florida, there were old retirement accounts and a health savings account (HSA) that I was lazy about rolling over. I craved a less complicated financial life. Simplicity is bliss, as many HumbleDollar writers have noted, and I’m now firmly in that camp. Here are six key benefits I’m enjoying now that almost all of my investments are in one safe place: 1. Getting my weekends back. As my number of accounts grew, keeping tabs on everything became cumbersome. A proud bean counter, I’ve routinely updated my personal finance spreadsheet since I was a freshman at Florida State University in 2007. But what used to take 10 minutes on a Saturday morning turned into something that felt like a chore. By the middle of 2022, logging into all those unique accounts to tally my net worth took north of 45 minutes. I sought to slim down that process starting at the end of last year. 2. Less wasted mental energy. Helping my future self by streamlining my finances now became mission critical. With all those taxable investment accounts, completing my 1040 tax return became brutal,…
Read more » Raw Deal
Mike Zaccardi | Aug 6, 2020
THE MID-2000s WERE my introduction to the investment world—and even today my thinking is heavily influenced by what was happening then. Take a moment to recall the 2004-07 period. Stock prices were marching higher, foreign shares were crushing U.S. stocks, small caps were doing all right and you could get a decent interest rate on your savings account. Good times. Another feature of the mid-2000s market: a big bull run in commodities. Back then, I never dabbled in commodities directly, but I admit to having a big emerging markets weight in my (little) portfolio. Emerging markets funds can be a commodity play by proxy, because developing countries are not only big producers of the world’s raw materials, but also big users of those materials when times are good. While my first investment was a target-date fund within a Roth IRA when I turned age 18, as I got older and savvier—at least in my 20-year-old mind—I tried my hand at some regional emerging markets exchange-traded funds. Those did well for a time, thanks to the boom in commodity prices. Oil surged from below $30 per barrel in 2001 to above $140 at the mid-2008 peak. Gold shone for a decade starting in 2001. Copper was on fire, as China demanded more and more. Heck, even the cost to transport dry goods was soaring—check out the Baltic Dry Index. In fact, at that time, if you looked back at market history, commodities showed every sign of being a great long-term investment and a superb diversifier for stocks. Then the party ended. First, the 2008 financial crisis hit. Then we had the 2014-2015 commodity collapse, resulting in a global economic slowdown. Perhaps the carnage culminated earlier this year, when oil prices briefly hit negative $40 per barrel. What happened to this once…
Read more » It’s Always Different
Mike Zaccardi | Aug 10, 2021
FINANCE NERD THAT I am, I gleefully dug into the 2021 Capital Markets Fact Book that was just published by SIFMA. I was particularly humbled by a chart showing the breakdown of the global stock and bond markets. Why humbled? The data show just how great we U.S. investors have had it in the past decade. The Fact Book first displays the $58 trillion global stock market’s composition in 2010. The U.S. was 30%, emerging markets 25% and the remainder was a mix of developed foreign markets. Jump to 2020, and we see significant shifts. The global stock market’s total value has ballooned to $105.8 trillion. Sounds huge, but that’s just a 6.2% annual rate of increase. The U.S. share surged to 38% of the global stock market, while emerging markets shrank to 21%. It’s a different story for the bond market. In 2010, this $82.3 trillion arena was 37% U.S., 28% European Union countries, 18% Japan and 5% emerging markets. In 2020, the U.S. was pretty much unchanged at 38%, while Europe slumped to 20% and Japan’s share dropped to just 12% of the $123.5 trillion market. What’s striking is that emerging markets, despite relatively poor stock market returns, increased their bond portion to 17% of the global market. Strong economic growth in emerging markets meant those nations had to take on more debt to finance capital spending. What about the decade to come? One thing is nearly certain: It’ll look a lot different from the one we just witnessed. It always does.
Read more » Dabbling in Digital
Mike Zaccardi | Nov 17, 2021
IF YOU’RE LIKE ME, you want to stick with your long-term investment plan, while remaining open to new ideas. It’s a balancing act—to avoid missing a new, long-lasting trend, while not getting caught up in a bubble. That’s how I feel about cryptocurrencies. Their market cap has swelled to $2.6 trillion. But what does that mean? Contrast that to the value of the global stock and bond markets: Each is about $125 trillion. To me, it makes sense to have some exposure to bitcoin, ethereum and the like. A portfolio weighting in proportion to the global investable market of cryptocurrencies amounts to about 1% of assets. That’s probably not a huge dollar amount for most investors. But I’d argue that anything much above 1% risks becoming an outsized, speculative bet. At the same time, having zero exposure could be seen as being underweight. Buying crypto directly is expensive. Coinbase has transaction fees of roughly 1.5%. The new ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (symbol: BITO) sports a lofty 0.95% expense ratio, along with other risks. But you don’t have to open a Coinbase account to get digital exposure, nor must you purchase a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. There’s another option. I was intrigued by a list of companies with digital asset exposure put together by Bank of America Global Research. The list of 43 stocks includes many companies we know well. All of them either own cryptocurrencies outright, or have invested in digital assets and the blockchain. As I see it, owning a basket of crypto-exposed stocks could be a cheaper option than buying cryptocurrencies directly. The downside: It adds more complexity to my portfolio—and it’s yet another investment group I’d have to track.
Read more »
On Being a “Healthy” Person
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Free Breakfast
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The $5,000 Thought Experiment
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A Wedding Too Far
Mark Crothers | Sep 7, 2026
Inflation Hedge
ArticleAdam M. Grossman | Aug 29, 2026
Growing Up In A Big House
DAN SMITH | Sep 9, 2026
Taking It With You
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Remembering Jonathan
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Locking it in
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Continuing Care
ArticleKathy Wilhelm | Feb 23, 2023
I EXPECTED TO SPEND early 2017 blogging about my fourth round-the-world trip, which I’d just completed, and planning my next journey. Instead, I spent much of the year on the couch with a heating pad, in between assorted medical appointments, everything from acupuncture to meeting with an infectious disease specialist.
Eventually, I got a definitive diagnosis—I had a form of rheumatoid arthritis—and, in early 2018, an effective medication. But I had been forcibly reminded of something I’d first learned 10 years earlier, when I broke my ankle. My house, as things currently stood, was not suitable for aging in place.
But was aging in place a good idea? During 2017, I learned just how debilitating persistent pain could be. I was 70, single (by choice), childless (by choice) and with no close relatives nearer than England. I already had a chronic, potentially disabling disease. What if I suffered a stroke or heart attack, or fell and broke a hip, or developed dementia? At a moment when I was least able to handle the decision, I’d have to find and fund in-home care, or move to an assisted living or skilled nursing facility.
In addition, I was thoroughly tired of the responsibility and cost of maintaining my house, not to mention preparing all my meals. Those of you thinking that your spouse could handle such things should bear in mind that, at some point, one of you will be a surviving spouse. Even if you have children close by, do you really want to burden them with your care?
I had friends living happily in continuing care retirement communities, and there were a number of CCRCs nearby. A CCRC typically offers a continuum of care from independent living to assisted living to skilled nursing. It was time to do my research. Ruth Alvarez's guide to CCRCs proved invaluable. HumbleDollar readers can also get a good introduction to the four types of CCRC by reading Howard Rohleder’s 2022 article.
For me, the choice of type was straightforward. I wanted a place that promised not to throw me out if I ran out of money and preferably backed that promise with a benevolent fund. I wanted a nonprofit, because a good for-profit might too easily be taken over by a bad one. I wanted on-site assisted living and skilled nursing, which is pretty standard among CCRCs. I wanted a place that accepted Medicare and Medicaid, and had a good rating. I wanted a place that had been open for a while and had sound financials. And I wanted an on-site clinic, exercise facilities and plenty of activities. I started collecting brochures.
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If a CCRC is regulated, it’s regulated by the state government. North Carolina requires CCRCs to give prospective residents a detailed financial and policy disclosure statement, and also post these documents online. That's how I learned that one potential CCRC didn't own its land and buildings, and another appeared to be operating at a loss. The brochures were fairly basic, although they usually included floor plans. Clearly, a visit was the acid test.
My first choice turned out to be an unexpected disappointment. It didn't feel friendly and seemed rather isolated. Another promising prospect, offering plenty of continuing education opportunities in conjunction with one of the local universities, had ceilings so low that the apartments felt claustrophobic. It also seemed to be spending a lot of money on décor, and charged comparatively more for independent living so that it could charge less for assisted living. I preferred to gamble that I’d spend longer in independent living.
I ended up putting down a refundable deposit at a nonprofit CCRC with good-looking financials that had been operating for 30 years—long enough that some residents were second generation. It was walking distance to a library, cafes and restaurants, and was also on a bus line. Everyone I met there was friendly, plus it had the welcoming vibe I’d missed at my first choice. In early 2019, the wait for a one-bedroom apartment was four-plus years, but the next year I was able to switch to a two bedroom in a new building that should be completed this summer.
All the apartments in the new building are at least two bedrooms. Many, if not most, of the prospective residents are couples. The CCRC solution is attractive enough that some couples are moving to a one bedroom, while they wait for a two bedroom to become available. The wait list at my choice is now seven-plus years for a one bedroom, 10-plus for a two bedroom in the original building and 12-plus for a cottage. The CCRC’s wait list population is 65% couples and 35% single individuals. If you need a place with no wait list, probably your only hope—at least in my area—is a CCRC that’s just starting or possibly one that’s undertaking a major expansion. You also need to pass both a physical and financial check when moving in, another reason to plan ahead.
Before my expected move to the CCRC, I moved to an apartment and sold my house. I’ve been pleasantly surprised to find that I don’t miss the house, despite living there for more than 30 years. The move to a two-bedroom apartment meant I could keep my study, which certainly made the change easier. Another bonus: After paying the CCRC entry fee, I’ll qualify for a substantial medical deduction on this year's taxes—which I’ll use to reduce the tax on a Roth conversion.
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Wedding Cost is just the beginning
luvtoride44afe9eb1e | Sep 8, 2026
Financial Fraud
ArticleAdam M. Grossman | Sep 5, 2026
- Secure the login to your bank account by setting up two-factor authentication. And if your bank supports it, use an authenticator app, rather than text messages, for the authentication codes. Ideally, if your bank supports it, switch to a passkey. This is a newer technology that represents a significant advance over traditional passwords. Most importantly, they aren’t vulnerable to phishing attacks. They’re also easier to use, providing one-click logins, and you can store passkeys in a password manager. For those reasons, more websites are beginning to support passkeys. I’d make the switch as soon as your bank makes them available.
- Set up alerts through your bank to monitor activity in your checking account. Every bank is different, but most allow you to set up email- or text-based alerts to let you know when transactions above a specified threshold are processed, or when other types of activity occur.
- Monitor your transactions. These days, it can be hard to keep an eye on every account. Households often have one or more bank accounts plus credit cards and electronic payment services like Venmo or Zelle. Most people realistically don’t have the time to review every account in real time. That’s why I recommend a service like Monarch or YNAB, which are web-based versions of traditional budgeting tools like Quicken. These services can pull in transactions from all your accounts and present them in a consolidated list, making review much easier. If you kept Monarch or YNAB open in a browser window on your home computer, you could scroll through recent transactions whenever you have a spare minute.
- To narrow the circle of people who have access to your account information, try limiting the number of paper checks you write. Especially with Zelle and Venmo as alternatives for making payments, this is getting easier. If you do write paper checks, be sure to use a gel pen and to avoid freestanding mailboxes. Those steps can help prevent a related type of fraud, as Jonathan Clements explained a few years back.
- Pay attention to notifications of data breaches. Unfortunately, breach announcements seem to occur so frequently that we’ve become immune to them. It’s worth paying attention, though, to understand which particular pieces of information have been stolen. If it looks like your banking information is included in a breach, it might be worth opening a new account, inconvenient as that would be.
- Have your guard up against unsolicited phone calls, emails or text messages. If someone is contacting you about an “account security issue,” or claims to be calling from your bank or from the IRS, be especially wary. Those are common tactics for creating a sense of urgency that can cause people to let their guard down.
What if, like Tom and Jane, you spot a fraudulent transaction in your account? Then it’s important to report it as quickly as possible. Regulation E can limit your liability, but the faster you report a suspicious transaction, the more protection it provides. Liability is limited to just $50 if a theft is reported within two business days, but that exposure increases to $500 if it’s reported later. And after 60 days, there are no guarantees. Thieves, unfortunately, don’t seem to sleep, which means that we need to be more vigilant than in the past, and need to be continuously vigilant. As personal finance author Mike Piper wrote recently, “Cybersecurity should be considered another core area of personal finance—no different from insurance planning, for instance.”