Family fortunes are almost destined to self-destruct—because the heirs almost always want to spend more than the portfolio can sustain.
NO. 35: OUR ODDS of beating the market averages over a lifetime of investing are so small they’re hardly worth considering. Overconfident investors insist on trying. Rational investors index.
NO. 30: TO MAKE money, investors must overcome the triple threat of costs, taxes and inflation. Suppose your investments climb 6% over the next year. If your advisor charges 1% and you buy funds that charge 1%, you’ll be left with 4%. If you lose a quarter of your gain to taxes, that 4% becomes 3%. What if inflation is 3%? Your effective gain is zero.
SOCIAL PROOF. We take our cues from others, assuming what’s popular is also good. That’s a smart strategy with movies, cars, restaurants and electronic gadgets. It’s often a terrible strategy with investments, because we find ourselves buying into stocks and market sectors that have already been bid up—and will likely have modest future returns.
CONSIDER A TARGET-date fund. Financial advisors push the notion that every investor needs a customized portfolio—and, indeed, we all like the idea that we have an investment mix specially designed for us. Yet most of us, whether we’re investing on our own or through an advisor, would likely fare just as well by buying a single target-date retirement fund.
NO. 35: OUR ODDS of beating the market averages over a lifetime of investing are so small they’re hardly worth considering. Overconfident investors insist on trying. Rational investors index.
JAMES CLEAR, in his bestselling book Atomic Habits, offers this thought-provoking notion: Suppose a plane takes off from Los Angeles on its way to New York. But after taking off, the pilot turns the nose of the plane by an almost imperceptible 89 inches. Where will the plane end up? The answer: nowhere near New York. As it flies across the country, that 89-inch difference will take it hundreds of miles off course.
MY AFFINITY FOR spreadsheets began in the late 1960s when I was a paperboy in Virginia Beach. I had a morning route for The Virginian-Pilot and an afternoon route for the now-defunct Ledger-Star. I used my Huffy bicycle with huge baskets front and back.
The business model was straightforward. I paid wholesale for the papers, and customers paid the retail price of 35 cents per week, or 55 cents if they also got the Sunday paper.
MY UPBRINGING WAS difficult. The alcoholism and rage among adult family members were often at their worst during the year-end holidays, and Thanksgiving could be particularly bad. What made this even worse was that I thought the popular images and ideas about Thanksgiving were accurate descriptions of other people’s good times.
One familiar depiction of Thanksgiving is Norman Rockwell’s iconic painting, “Freedom from Want.” The picture has come to represent the central moment of our Thanksgiving celebration: the roasted turkey arriving at the table as the prelude to eating ourselves into a tryptophan coma.
MY DOCTOR TOLD ME that my white blood cell count has been trending lower for the past five years. He was concerned there was something going on with my immune system and wanted me to see an oncologist.
The oncologist performed a number of tests and couldn’t find anything that would have caused my condition. He wasn’t concerned about my ability to fight off infections because my absolute neutrophil count was in an acceptable range.
WHEN I WAS A TEENAGER, I didn’t have a girlfriend. Now that I’m older, I realize not everyone had a girlfriend during their junior high or high school years. But at the time, I felt like I was the only one.
By this time, my father had passed away, so I only had my mother and older brother to confide in. My brother thought I might have a problem that prevented me from seeking female companionship,
MY FAVORITE CLASS freshman year in college was introductory psychology. I found the lectures interesting, the textbook fascinating, and the course much less time-consuming than my engineering classes. Based on my positive experience, I decided I’d take a class called psychology of personality as an elective. What I didn’t realize was that many students considered the professor to be something of an oddball.
My first—and only—day in the class was surreal. The professor kept repeating that his class was “designed to be a real system.” Multiple times,
Today’s the Day!–Well, Sort Of (by Dana/DrLefty)
Kristine Wonders: Does Not Having Children Change How You Plan For Retirement?
Where Next? What Next?
Help Wanted
How’s Your Crystal Ball? By Jonathan Clements
- 3.6
- 4.3
- no
- 5376
- 16325
- no
- yes
- 4.27
- And most important unasked bonus pick, winner of the Stanley Cup. My Colorado Avalanche.
"Consumer Advocate by Ken Cutler
Any Bonds Today? By Marjorie Kondrack
I’m concerned about the stock market. How concerned are you? Jonathan, any comforting words?
I’ll take the “best” thing on the menu says Quinn
I don’t feel comfortable being “wealthy”
What should be our % cash allocation in investment portfolio?
Seeking Certainty
Jonathan Clements | Mar 28, 2025
- Bailing early. Where’s the certainty if life intervenes, as it often does, and we’re compelled to sell our individual bonds before maturity? How easy will it be to sell the bonds in the secondary market, and could we receive far less than the bond’s par value?
- Worrying about pennies. If we’re willing to own stocks and run the risk of steep short-term losses, should we really get hot and bothered because we don’t know precisely what a bond fund will be worth when we’ll need our money back in, say, 10 years?
- No safety in numbers. Are we really reducing our financial peril if we trade the diversification of bond funds for the single-issuer risk of an individual bond? Is the added risk involved worth it, given that the return of an intermediate bond fund will likely be similar to that of an intermediate individual bond of comparable credit quality?
- Losing to inflation. Where’s the certainty in knowing that each of our individual bonds will be worth $1,000 upon maturity, but we have no idea what the purchasing power of that $1,000 will be?
To be sure, the risk of individual securities is reduced if we stick with Treasury bonds, which most experts believe carry scant risk of default. Worried about inflation? That can be addressed with inflation-indexed Treasurys and Series I savings bonds. Still, I’ve never owned an individual bond, except a $75 EE savings bond I won for finishing second in a 5k road race. Why not? I’m not that concerned that my bond funds might be worth a few percent more or less than I’d hoped when it’s time to cash out. Why would I? Heck, I’ve lived through two 50%-plus stock market declines during my investing career, so modest fluctuations in bond prices hardly seem worth the worry. Meanwhile, I simply don’t want the hassle and complexity of dealing with individual bonds, including Treasurys and savings bonds, and I sure don’t want to bequeath that sort of portfolio to my family. Given all the complaints I’ve read about dealing with TreasuryDirect, and especially cashing in Series I and EE savings bonds, I’m glad I made that choice. But many readers, I know, strongly disagree.