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Blood Money

"XOM had been on my sell list for a couple years as part of my ongoing effort to whittle our individual equity holdings down to just a handful of stocks. This is all part of the long term and nearly completed goal of being (almost) purely invested in low cost index funds. The rise in XOM's price this year offered a reasonably nice exit to an otherwise mundane holding."
- Dunn Werking
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A Place At The Table

"Andrew, I've long believed that if you can afford it, spending money on international travel earlier in life is one of the best investments you can make. Seeing the world while you're young reshapes how you think—it shows you, firsthand, both how different and how alike people are, no matter where they're from."
- Mark Crothers
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The Intentional Spendthrift

"Andrew, shifting into 'spending mode' is genuinely one of the hardest adjustments for people who've saved diligently their whole lives. Any strategy that makes it easier is worth trying."
- Mark Crothers
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Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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Americans and their credit cards

"Poor planning and living beyond their means. The only time I ever paid interest was when I forgot to pay on time. Now that I have auto payments for my 3 CCs, I never pay interest."
- Jerry Pinkard
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You Heel!

"William Perry, All the Canadians I met along the way were quite polite about it but I could tell they were more than a little upset. A young couple I met in Banff mentioned the desire to travel to the US, though they were going to hold off for the near future."
- Michael Flack
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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How Did You Find Paid Work After Retiring from Your Primary Career?

"Good question. I truly believe everyone and there journeys are different. After 33 years of commission route sales and the hectic pace and hours that went along with it I knew I didn't want to sit around or start a similar rat race in retirement. Living in a smaller town it's all about connections, everybody knows someone so it's fairly easy to find a job. A lot of it is not what you know but who you know. I retired for three days 😂 before starting to work at our Middle School as a teachers aide. After almost fifteen years of that I retired again. I have now worked seasonally for the last eight years in our city's Parks department, enjoying the outdoors at a much slower pace along with no pressure of any kind"
- L H
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Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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TreasuryDirect changing login procedure to mandate ID.me later in 2026

"In the county I live in there recently has been just two smaller local financial institutions who still redeemed US government paper savings bonds. Both financial institutions (one a bank with a state charter, one a credit union) has limited that service strictly for their own account holders whose banking accounts are with long term customers with active accounts. With all of the changes currently occurring at Treasury Direct my expectation is the number of financial institutions redeeming old paper savings bonds for customers will soon be zero. Over the counter sales of paper savings bonds ended in 2012 and the purchase of paper savings Bonds using overpayment of taxes (which next to no one did) ended in 2025. If you own paper US Bonds you are likely doing your heirs a favor by redeeming them sooner rather than later."
- William Perry
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Tax Complications – How SS Benefits interact with Other Income

"Hung, You are welcome. I have become a big fan of Dinkytown's 1040 calculator for quick estimates. I believe that AARP's calculator is based on Dinkytown's also. The calculations in the original post can be completed in a few minutes."
- Rick Connor
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Blood Money

"XOM had been on my sell list for a couple years as part of my ongoing effort to whittle our individual equity holdings down to just a handful of stocks. This is all part of the long term and nearly completed goal of being (almost) purely invested in low cost index funds. The rise in XOM's price this year offered a reasonably nice exit to an otherwise mundane holding."
- Dunn Werking
Read more »

A Place At The Table

"Andrew, I've long believed that if you can afford it, spending money on international travel earlier in life is one of the best investments you can make. Seeing the world while you're young reshapes how you think—it shows you, firsthand, both how different and how alike people are, no matter where they're from."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

The Intentional Spendthrift

"Andrew, shifting into 'spending mode' is genuinely one of the hardest adjustments for people who've saved diligently their whole lives. Any strategy that makes it easier is worth trying."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Americans and their credit cards

"Poor planning and living beyond their means. The only time I ever paid interest was when I forgot to pay on time. Now that I have auto payments for my 3 CCs, I never pay interest."
- Jerry Pinkard
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You Heel!

"William Perry, All the Canadians I met along the way were quite polite about it but I could tell they were more than a little upset. A young couple I met in Banff mentioned the desire to travel to the US, though they were going to hold off for the near future."
- Michael Flack
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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How Did You Find Paid Work After Retiring from Your Primary Career?

"Good question. I truly believe everyone and there journeys are different. After 33 years of commission route sales and the hectic pace and hours that went along with it I knew I didn't want to sit around or start a similar rat race in retirement. Living in a smaller town it's all about connections, everybody knows someone so it's fairly easy to find a job. A lot of it is not what you know but who you know. I retired for three days 😂 before starting to work at our Middle School as a teachers aide. After almost fifteen years of that I retired again. I have now worked seasonally for the last eight years in our city's Parks department, enjoying the outdoors at a much slower pace along with no pressure of any kind"
- L H
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Manifesto

NO. 23: IF WE DON’T have much money, we should compensate with time—by starting to save when we’re young, holding stocks for decades and encouraging our children to do the same.

think

HABIT FORMATION. To improve our behavior—financial and otherwise—we need to turn our desired good behavior into habits. That might require doing the right thing daily for perhaps two months. To get through this transition period, helpful strategies include sharing our resolutions with others, visualizing our goals and automating our savings program.

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RENT OUT YOUR HOME for 14 days or less each year. If you stay under this limit, you don’t have to pay taxes on the income you receive, though you also can’t deduct any expenses you incur. Such short-term rentals can be lucrative if, say, you live near a major annual sporting event or near a college where hotel rooms are in short supply during graduation.

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NO. 15: JUST BECAUSE folks appear rich doesn't mean they are. The big house may be heavily mortgaged, the luxury sedans could be leased, the landscaper might be awaiting payment—and the couple who appear to have it all may be agonizing over how to pay the bills. Make no mistake: Those who put on a display of wealth are less wealthy as a result.

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Manifesto

NO. 23: IF WE DON’T have much money, we should compensate with time—by starting to save when we’re young, holding stocks for decades and encouraging our children to do the same.

Spotlight: Life Events

A Bit More Humble

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life.

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What Would You Take?

In 2020, the Silverado fire broke out near our city. At the time, I couldn’t imagine that fire would threaten our home because it would have to burn a large part of our town to get to us. Surely, the firefighters would have it under control before there was mass destruction. Then, the Palisades and Eaton fires this year destroyed thousands of structures fueled by low humidity and strong winds. I now realize we might not have been as safe as I thought we were.

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Boglehead Conference

There is a Boglehead Conference in October.  Has anybody attended previous conferences? I’m considering attending and I’d appreciate your hearing about your experience. Did you find it valuable?
Thanks,
Jackie

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Turned Upside Down

FOUR MONTHS AGO, I was told I might have just a year to live. It’s been a whirlwind ever since.
I’ve been inundated with messages from acquaintances and readers, gone to countless medical appointments, my diagnosis has received a surprising amount of media attention, I’ve been hustling to organize my financial affairs, and Elaine and I have taken two trips.
Where do things stand today? Here’s what’s been going on.
Medical update. After three radiation treatments to zap the 10 cancerous lesions on my brain and an intense opening round of infusion sessions,

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Times Like These

I really feel for people  who are unexpectedly losing their jobs late career because of the DOGE cuts.
I experienced something similar when I was pushed out of my 36 year banking job at age 59. I was a good performer, but when they want to get you they get you.
I struggled for a couple of years but the good news is that I finally figured things out and at age 70 I’m the happiest I’ve ever been.

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Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us.
My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her.
It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care.

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Spotlight: Abramowitz

Knowing Thyself and Investing: Talkin’ Stocks

Readers’ responses to an earlier post on volunteering to teach a module on investing in index funds and ETFs to high school students electing to take a new personal finance course were very helpful (and brutally honest!), Consistent with those suggestions, the “text” will be Bogle’s deceptively simple, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. Evans and Malkiel’s The Index Fund Solution: A Step-By-Step Investor’s Guide is the workbook. What follows will probably be the first overnight reading assignment aimed at defusing some of the reservations teenagers night have about investing in the market. If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out. Adam Smith, The Money Game   If you can’t control your emotions, being in the market is like walking into a heated area wearing a backpack full of explosives. Charles D. Ellis, Winning the Loser’s Game Valencia Can’t Chill Out This whole stock market thing is worse than a scam. My mom lost half her money in Apple stock a long time ago (note: Apple lost over 50% in 2008). If it happened to Apple it could happen to anything. She says the stock market is just a casino for rich people. I’m getting the heebie-jeebies just talking about it. Steve’s response: Believe me, I know what you mean. Even after sixty years of stock investing, I still get anxious when I hit the “buy” button. Not to get a little antsy when putting your money at risk is a fool’s paradise. Just imagine the fate of people who got slammed by the tech stock collapse of 2001, the mortgage default debacle of 2008 or the 2022 beating brought on by the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. But if they hunkered down and persevered through those bear markets, they enjoyed the…
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Stored Memories: Friendship and Software

“I’m giving up on your cousin Bernie, Fay.” “Bill, grow up already and stop acting like a wounded bird. Be a good husband and give him another year.“ “Another year?  It’s already been three years and he told me two. Good-bye to our $20,000. I told you it wouldn’t be so easy to go from men’s clothing to shoes. Your family’s in la la land.” The business lesson. My father looked up from his lamb chop and poked his fork at me. “Stevie, this is a good lesson for you. No loans and no partners. Loans are a crap shoot and a partner means you lose control. I know you think you’re a big deal college student and you’re about to graduate. There are a lot of shysters out there just looking for guys like you. So don’t be a jerk and fall for some cockamamie story.” Escapades. “Hey, Dennis, stop shooting, please stop shooting. It’s important.” I was in extreme panic mode running from the fraternity house to the basketball court. “What’s up Steve?” “Somebody stole my car. I can’t find it. I went up and down all the side streets. It’s not there. A new car. Dennis, you know my father. Wild Bill is going to kill me.” “Calm down man, calm down. Your car isn’t stolen. He laughed at my absentmindedness. Don’t you remember what happened this morning? Larry talked you into letting him borrow the Corvette.” “Well, he’s sure taking it for a long test drive.” “Abe, I went to high school with Larry. I know him better than you do. He never had any intention of bringing it right back. You’ll have it by the end of the day.” That night I got the car back. A few months later Larry was with me on…
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Running Away from Home (Again)

Writing has always been my friend. Now uncertain about the direction to take it, I’ve been feeling a little lost. I became aware of this when Alberta discovered my high school yearbook while searching for papers she needed for a book chapter she was preparing. It had been sixty years since I last opened the white book with “Hewlett High School Class of 1963” imprinted in dark blue across the cover. Slowly turning the pages, I became nostalgic reading the comments friends made alongside their postage stamp pictures. I found myself staring for a long while at the future Frankie Berlin envisioned for me: “Hey Abe, I look forward to seeing you spouting your bombast in the sports section of the New York Times.” Well, I never quite made it to the Times, but not long after I arrived at college I found a part-time job as a sportswriter for the Skokie News, a suburban newspaper covering a small upscale city northwest of Chicago. Serendipity had shined on me, but I was too young and immature to appreciate it. The editor liked my first few articles on the high school football team, but I balked when he suggested I attend all the road games and interview at least one player after each game. I didn’t quit outright, but I became an unreliable reporter. I invented final exams as an excuse for my dalliance, but was fired by a no-nonsense boss. Apparently, the real world was not going to be as forgiving as my parents. Humiliated and enraged, I retaliated by changing my major from journalism to psychology. As my father said during Christmas break, “Stevie, you just may have bitten off your nose to spite your face.” For each of us, a turning point comes when we must choose one…
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AI or Black Eye: Choose Your Weapons Steve Abramowitz

"There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different.” Jensen Huang, CEO Nvidia   “No company is going to be immune (if the AI bubble bursts), including us.” Sundar Pichai, CEO Google (now known as Alphabet)   Is the AI revolution a blessing or a curse, an enduring breakthrough or impending economic and cultural apocalypse? Many investors have taken a position and chosen their weapons, with some wielding funds dedicated to AI and others brandishing funds that minimize  exposure to it. At this juncture, we don’t know if the prices of stocks heavily dependent on artificial intelligence are too high, about right or perhaps even underestimating its power. My aim here is neither to glorify nor vilify readers with large stakes in AI. And it’s certainly not to advocate an oversized role for AI in long-range financial planning for retirement or college  education. Efficient broad market index funds—most now already tilted towards AI—are consensually regarded as the vehicle of choice for those objectives. We are talking here about investing for shorter-term purposes, such as helping to offset a brief encounter with sequence of returns risk. A caveat at the outset. I have elected to use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than index funds for this analysis and discussion. Oh, I know that most AI readers prefer (even demand) passive investing within the tried-and-true mutual fund structure and that Humble Dollar espouses the Boglehead philosophy. But I am also aware the asset flows are fast turning towards the upstart ETF. Since 2011, almost 150 mutual funds have converted to corresponding ETFs and the pace of the desertions is accelerating. In 2024 mutual funds bled over 150 billion in investor money, when ETF assets soared to over 1.1 trillion. While the oft-demonstrated efficiency…
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Is Small Beautiful? Four Index Choices from Vanguard by Steve Abramowitz

You’ve gone long-term the S&P 500 and you think you’re diversified. Lots of luck. Others of you are smug because you opted instead for a total market fund. At least you guys had the right idea. Truth is, neither of you is adequately spread out. Why not? Because you are horribly underinvested in small cap stocks   The S&P has absolutely zero small stocks represented, according to Morningstar’s definition. And small companies make up only 8% of the broad market alternative’s holdings. Sure, small cap stocks have been rank underperformers for almost a decade and are now on sale for nearly the cheapest price ever relative to large caps. You think you’re a market celebrity. But let’s face it folks—you were lucky, very lucky, because small companies have historically outgained larger fare by a percent or two annually.   I wrote this article for two groups of Vanguard investors. The first one comprises readers who simply didn’t know about the small stock gap in their portfolios and may want close it. A more informed bunch may already have some representation in small companies, but are considering an investment “style rebalance” that corrects for the comparatively poor showing of value stocks over the last few years. Fortunately, Vanguard offers four small cap index funds that can satisfy the needs of both types of investors. All of them have the usual Vanguard-light cost.   Small Cap Index Fund (VSMAX)   This is a plain-vanilla fund that effectively spans the universe of small companies. It fills that gap we were just talking about. Here are some numbers to give you an idea of just how poorly small cap stocks have recently done. At midyear, the fund had advanced merely 3% as against 15% for the S&P. Over the last three absolutely dismal years…
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Vanguard Small-Cap: What’s in a Name?

In two previous posts (“The Morningstar Experience” and “Your Morningstar Freebee”), we looked at how readers considering investment in a Vanguard fund can consult the helpful information in Morningstar’s esteemed advisory service. We demonstrated how they might consult this resource to monitor their investments and evaluate their performance. Today, we’ll illustrate how to decide whether the holdings of the fund meet the reader’s objective. Once again, the fund examined is Vanguard’s Small-Cap ETF (symbol VB, or VSMAX for the mutual fund alternative).   We begin by searching our target fund—even without the $249 subscription price—and slide over to Portfolio. You can see that the stocks in VB are overwhelmingly domestic, as they should be. I find the map designating Stock Style confusing, so I recommend you drop down to Weight. Here we get a surprise and a big reason to depend on Morningstar. Fully one-third of VB’s holdings are classified as midcap stocks!   What might be going on? Well, Morningstar may set a higher bar for inclusion in the small cap space than VB’s underlying index. And this difference in criterion could exert a significant effect on performance. Readers may recall that VB’s average annual 10-year return was about 1% higher than that of similar funds. Could VB's  portfolio have benefited from the higher long-term performance of midcap stocks?   Quite possibly. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which is curiously more popular than VB despite its higher expenses (.19 vs. .05), is virtually 100% small cap and did not enjoy a midcap edge. Likewise, iShares S&P Mid-Cap ETF advanced yet another percentage point more than VB. You will probably get the superior performance of VB only as long as midcap stocks continue to outperform.   We also see that VB is suitably balanced across the value vs. growth…
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