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This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Well indeed. Many would say making a decision to have 4 kids with a single wage earner was an irresponsible decision so it would be informative to actually hear what the backup plan was. Because surely such a responsible man as Mr Quinn had a fully planned and costed contingency."
- bbbobbins
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Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Americans and their credit cards

"If 46% of cardholders carry credit card debt, how can 53% of Americans carry credit card debt to cover essential living expenses?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"David, I'm with you on the peat fire. I still burn peat now and then in winter — messy fuel, but that smell is hard to beat. These days it's surprisingly hard to come by in Ireland, thanks to legislation protecting the peat bogs."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

The Intentional Spendthrift

"The train from Milan to Zurich is a beautiful, scenic journey — though my first time was a big disappointment. I hadn't realised there were two different routes, and I mistakenly booked the one that goes through the tunnel under the Alps. A few years later, I made sure to book the right one!"
- Mark Crothers
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Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
Read more »

The Wrong-Sided Man

"I too walk early in the morning and now I carry a small can of pepper spray. It might be a vicious dog, wrong-way man as you describe, or a wayward hobo looking for an easy roll."
- art winslow
Read more »

You Heel!

"Counterpoint- I purchased a brand new pair of Bostonian oxfords, maroon in color for about $20, about 25 years ago. I liked them so much I bought a black pair, but they were only reduced to $35. The black ones were go to shoes for my work environment for a couple decades. I spent ~$150 combined to replace the leather soles and rubber heels multiple times. I wondered if it was a prudent decision to keep spending so much more than the original cost. Then I shopped for equal quality and comfort in new shoes, and I found they were around $250 and could not be re-soled due to the rubber soles. I therefore succeeded in exercising my frugal muscle and got the maximum value out of a relatively paltry investment. And I supported small local businesses, making a modest living for their family. I call that a win-win. I've trashed the black shoes as I felt they were no longer worth repairing, or needed for work. I'll be wearing the maroon ones (original heel/sole) later this year in my son's wedding."
- John Verlautz
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A Place At The Table

"Thank you, William. I’m glad you enjoyed it. The Philippines has taught me quite a bit, and often it’s the small, everyday experiences that have left the biggest impression on me."
- Andrew Clements
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Blood Money

"I agree with you about KO but XOM is involved in climate deception since it knew about global warming risks 60 years ago and ranks as one of the top global greenhouse gas polluters."
- Nick Politakis
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Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Well indeed. Many would say making a decision to have 4 kids with a single wage earner was an irresponsible decision so it would be informative to actually hear what the backup plan was. Because surely such a responsible man as Mr Quinn had a fully planned and costed contingency."
- bbbobbins
Read more »

Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Americans and their credit cards

"If 46% of cardholders carry credit card debt, how can 53% of Americans carry credit card debt to cover essential living expenses?"
- R Quinn
Read more »

Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"David, I'm with you on the peat fire. I still burn peat now and then in winter — messy fuel, but that smell is hard to beat. These days it's surprisingly hard to come by in Ireland, thanks to legislation protecting the peat bogs."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

The Intentional Spendthrift

"The train from Milan to Zurich is a beautiful, scenic journey — though my first time was a big disappointment. I hadn't realised there were two different routes, and I mistakenly booked the one that goes through the tunnel under the Alps. A few years later, I made sure to book the right one!"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
Read more »

The Wrong-Sided Man

"I too walk early in the morning and now I carry a small can of pepper spray. It might be a vicious dog, wrong-way man as you describe, or a wayward hobo looking for an easy roll."
- art winslow
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You Heel!

"Counterpoint- I purchased a brand new pair of Bostonian oxfords, maroon in color for about $20, about 25 years ago. I liked them so much I bought a black pair, but they were only reduced to $35. The black ones were go to shoes for my work environment for a couple decades. I spent ~$150 combined to replace the leather soles and rubber heels multiple times. I wondered if it was a prudent decision to keep spending so much more than the original cost. Then I shopped for equal quality and comfort in new shoes, and I found they were around $250 and could not be re-soled due to the rubber soles. I therefore succeeded in exercising my frugal muscle and got the maximum value out of a relatively paltry investment. And I supported small local businesses, making a modest living for their family. I call that a win-win. I've trashed the black shoes as I felt they were no longer worth repairing, or needed for work. I'll be wearing the maroon ones (original heel/sole) later this year in my son's wedding."
- John Verlautz
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Manifesto

NO. 24: OUR ONLY earthly immortality will be the memories of others. We should make sure those memories are good—by spending our wealth on special times with friends and family.

Truths

NO. 75: IF YOU BUY and hold individual stocks or stock index funds in a regular taxable account, you can defer taxes, just like you can in a retirement account. Any capital-gains tax bill is postponed until you sell. But for this tax deferral to be truly valuable, you need super-low portfolio turnover, holding investments for 10 or preferably 20 years.

humans

NO. 26: WE TEND to be overconfident—which isn’t a bad thing. Self-confident individuals tend to be happier, have a wider circle of friends and enjoy greater career success. Problem is, if we’re too confident in our financial abilities, there’s a risk we’ll rack up hefty investment costs and make big undiversified bets, both of which could come back to haunt us.

think

PASCAL’S WAGER. Belief in God is rational, argued Blaise Pascal. If you believe and God doesn’t exist, the price is modest: a less immoral life. But if you don’t believe and God does exist, the price is far higher: an eternity in hell. The lesson? When managing money, we should focus less on the odds of something happening and more on the consequences.

College-bound kids?

Manifesto

NO. 24: OUR ONLY earthly immortality will be the memories of others. We should make sure those memories are good—by spending our wealth on special times with friends and family.

Spotlight: Borrowing

Credit Card Debt.

American credit card debt just broke the trillion dollar level.  Taking on  debt, “ bad” debt, credit cards , auto loans and similar, is a like attending a raucous party ,  taking in too much alcohol , etc.
The aftermath , paying off high interest loans, is like the worst hangover, ever. It can take decades to recover from it.
Often,  too much alcohol can kill you, quickly or long term, * alas , debt can kill you,

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Refinancing—Again

I HAD A NEW HOME built in 2017. I financed it with a 30-year mortgage at a 3.875% interest rate.
Early last year, when interest rates dropped due to the pandemic, I suggested that readers refinance. I took my own advice, replacing my 30-year loan with a 15-year mortgage at 2.99%. The cost of refinancing seemed well worth the reduction in my loan interest rate.
Two months ago, I saw that mortgage rates had continued to decline,

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Double Trouble

PEOPLE OFTEN ACT foolishly and then desperately try to justify their financial sins. A case in point: Those who take on too much debt, can’t get it paid off by retirement—and end up servicing huge mortgages and other loans long after their paychecks have come to an end.
Cue the tap dancing. The indebted start waxing eloquent about the virtues of the mortgage-interest tax deduction and how it’s smart to pay the bank 4% while they invest the borrowed money at 10%.

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Best Investment 2018

THE ABOVE HEADLINE overpromises, I readily admit. Still, three considerations—taxes, risk and the economic cycle—point to one conclusion: Paying down debt in 2018 looks like an awfully smart move.
Debtors’ prison. Ridding yourself of debt, even mortgage debt, has long been a savvy alternative to buying bonds and certificates of deposit. But thanks to the new tax law, it looks especially savvy right now—and especially if you’re married.
How come? The new tax law took away personal exemptions but compensated by roughly doubling the size of the standard deduction.

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No Interest

THE HOUSE I GREW UP in was built in 1950 by my father, with some assistance from his best friend Joe, who was a master homebuilder by profession. After his work day as an accountant for a local hardware and lumber chain, my dad would head over to the job site and labor into the night.
My mom also provided some sweat equity, painting and even swinging a hammer at times. I was born in 1962,

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Home Rich Cash Poor

ACCORDING TO MY local newspaper, the average home price in my town rose 450% over the past 25 years. That made me ponder how I could use my home equity to fund my desired retirement lifestyle. I’m certainly not alone in thinking this way.
There are three ways you can access home equity. You can sell your home and downsize, you can take out a home equity line of credit or you can take out a reverse mortgage.

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Spotlight: Rao

More Than Money

I WAS FASCINATED with retirement planning during the final decade of my career. I read many financial books and focused on saving diligently. Yet, after retiring several months ago following a 39-year career as a research and development engineer, I had a rude awakening. You can plan all you want, but then comes an unexpected situation that derails everything. As boxer Mike Tyson famously said, “Everybody has plans until they get hit for the first time.” In the brief time I’ve been retired, I’ve quickly learned that money—despite being the centerpiece of most retirement literature—isn’t the sole answer to my retirement needs. Instead, there are many ingredients required for happiness. Several years ago, before retirement, my wife and I chose to sell our home, downsize and move to a 55-plus retirement community in Atlanta. Now, we’re in another such community in Tampa. From my perch, I’ve observed how seniors older than me, from their late 70s to early 90s, manage their lives. Some are just barely living, while others are thriving. What makes some resilient and happy, while others struggle? This is not an easy question to answer. Everyone’s situation is different, so there’s no standard prescription that’ll work for everyone. Still, based on what I’ve observed over the past few years and on my own experience over the past few months, I believe these four pillars, presented in order of importance, are crucial ingredients for a happy retirement: Health. Without health, retirement is a struggle. If one spouse has a health problem and the other functions as a caregiver, the entire retirement plan has to change. I know of several families in our 55-plus community where the children have assumed the burden of caregiving, with knock-on effects on their own families and careers. I’ve also seen people living alone…
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Dream Retirement – Is it fading away?

Jamie Dimon says, "The American dream is disappearing—and half the public no longer believes in it". Soaring costs of housing, child care, education, and health care are making it harder than ever for the middle class to achieve their dream. Pew research study found that while 64% of upper-income Americans say the American dream still exists, 39% of lower-income Americans say the same – a gap of 25 percentage points. About two-thirds of adults ages 65 and older (68%) say the American dream is still achievable, as do 61% of those 50 to 64.  By comparison, only about four-in-ten adults under 50 (42%) say it’s still possible for people to achieve the American dream. Many in their fifties are part of the "sandwich" generation, supporting their children as well as their parents or other elderly relatives. This takes a toll on their career, income levels and savings for retirement. Health care and long term care costs are constantly rising.  How could they hope for a  dream retirement? Even if one had diligently saved and invested over the years, unknown events can derail a retirement. A serious market downturn could affect you financially. It is not all about money, though. Serious health issues, loss of a spouse, divorce, children needing financial help, and many other unforeseen events can set back a happy retirement. While I have done a fair bit of thinking and preparation to have a happy retirement, nothing is certain. Evaluating potential unforeseen risks has been a challenge. How do you define your dream retirement? How will you prepare for it? Or just do the best you can, be flexible and go with the flow?
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Lessons you have learned from articles by Jonathan

While there are thousands who have been following Jonathan's columns and articles for decades, I started reading his articles only about a year and a half ago. His articles influenced me to change my investing behavior. Now I am focused only on broad market ETFs and not reacting to frequent market gyrations. I am sure many of you have learned much from him and made changes to how you think about investing. This goes beyond financial lessons. I have also learned a lot about how to cope with adversity from his recent articles after terminal diagnosis. He certainly has made a huge difference. I have read quite a few of his articles in HumbleDollar. It will be great to hear from those following him for many years to benefit from their perspectives. What lessons (financial and about life in general) have you learned and implemented from Jonathan's writings? - Sundar Mohan Rao
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What’s the best career advice you ever got? 

After nearly a four decade career, I sometimes wonder how I survived many early retirement offers and frequent company downsizing initiatives.  One reason may be that I picked up a lot of career advice from colleagues and bosses along the way. I listened to some, but not all. Here are some: - My first boss on the first day told me, "Be nice to people on the way up. You need their help on the way down."  -Always ask "why"? Look for ways to improve processes and products to increase profitability and productivity. -Never stop learning. Be excited about taking on new roles. - When you are given a job, do the best you can even though you don't like it, You are going to be judged by how well you do in your current job before they promote you to another job you like. - If opportunity doesn't knock on your door, put in more doors. - Develop a strong network inside and outside the company. - Never say "No" to your boss and his immediate boss. - Be nice to everyone. You never know who is going to be your boss next year. - Find out who your boss likes and hates. Never praise the one he hates in front of him. What is the best career advice you ever got? Or the advice you will give to any one working today? While many HumbleDollar readers are retired or nearing retirement, there are many more who are still working. They will all benefit from your advice.
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Risks Retirees Face

WE’VE ALL HEARD THE maxim that “without risk, there’s no reward.” Over the years, we’ve all taken countless risks—big and small, financial and otherwise—to get to where we are today. Every activity has a risk associated with it, and that includes retirement. It’s best to be aware of these risks and, when prudent, take steps to limit them. Here are nine risks that retirees face. 1. Health. Even if we’re fortunate to enjoy a long, active retirement, our health may not be great in our later years. Alternatively, even if our own health holds up, our spouse may have medical issues. On top of that, we’ll likely face escalating health costs as we age. I’ve watched a friend move from independent living to assisted living to a nursing home to memory care. Each move was progressively more expensive. Good planning is needed to manage such life-changing events. 2. Longevity. I met a retiree at a party who said, “My mother passed away at 70 and my father at 72. The chance of me reaching my 90s is virtually nil. My plan is to spend more and enjoy life while it lasts.” A wise move? No matter what our family health history, it’s risky to assume we won’t enjoy a long life. And even if we don’t live to a ripe old age, our spouse may. 3. Market downturns. While the stock market has returned an average 10% a year over long stretches, a major drawdown of 20% or more could happen at any time. When we were young, we had many years to recoup such losses. But once we’re retired and drawing on our portfolio for spending money, our time horizon is often considerably shorter. A balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds can help reduce this risk. 4. Spending. We…
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How would you prepare for the staggering cost of in-home care?

It is reported that over  25% of those over 65 will need significant support and services for over 3 yrs during their life time. As population ages, this is going to get worse. In-home care is very expensive. As per Genworth, the median cost of round-the clock in-home care is $290000/yr, which is 2X the median cost of nursing home or 4X the median cost of assisted living. Such costs can destroy retirement savings of  many, or cause significant financial strain to children caring for their parents. Any planned inheritance for children could be wiped out. Forum had many discussions on long term care insurance and CCRC (Continuing Care Retirement Communities) options. Each has its own pros and cons. Long term care insurance, unless taken very early, becomes very expensive. After serious heath issues, entering CCRC may not be an option. In addition, people want to age-in-place or live in their home as long as possible. What has been your experience caring for family or friends? How would you prepare financially for in-home care , if you ever need it?
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