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Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
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Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Dick, the opinions and assertions you stated in your original post would have been just as valid (or invalid) years ago. Adjusting for inflation and the increase in the number of card holders, over time the average credit card balance has been flat for decades. In fact the percent of consumer credit card debt as a share of disposable income is lower than it was ten and even twenty years ago. In short, the type of consumer credit behavior that you would approve of, has improved ever so slightly the last thirty years. Despite the undeniable debt wastage you decry, I am saddened by - and "haughty" while not a bullseye hits close to the mark I'm afraid - the statement: “I think it can be summarized, in most cases, as poor financial planning and irresponsible behavior.” You nor I can, in all fairness, summarize "most" of the millions of cases and judge them as "irresponsible". Consider putting down the broad brush. Rest your ever-sensitive hackles. Walk with your beloved wife along the sandy Cape beach and let thoughts of credit cards, shopping carts, and social security recede with tide into the great ocean. With much care and respect, Mark"
- Retired
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Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"One part of living well, in my opinion!"
- Dave Melick
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You Heel!

"We visited Nova Scotia in May. We pretty much apologized for the adversarial political behavior whenever we were forced to disclose we were from the US. The uniform reply was something to the effect that "we know it's not you, because we used to visit there a lot, and everyone is so nice"."
- Jeff Bond
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A Place At The Table

"Yes, Andrew (and everyone), traveling while young shouldn’t be limited to those from well-off families but it takes an open mind on the part of the parents to let their children travel with non-family members, plus dedicated teachers or coaches to organize the fundraising. But it’s true that such trips, whether they are for sightseeing, attending classes or engaging in some kind of helping project, are life changing for the kids, usually teenagers."
- Linda Grady
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Blood Money

"I agree with you about KO but XOM is involved in climate deception since it knew about global warming risks 60 years ago and ranks as one of the top global greenhouse gas polluters."
- Nick Politakis
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Americans and their credit cards

"More than 60% of Americans self-report in surveys that they live needing their next paycheck to cover their monthly bills. This may be more a reflection of the economic pressure that working Americans feel at the gas pump, grocery store and doctor's office. A study by Bankrate instead placed that P-to-P figure at 34%, and pointed out the varying definitions of the term "paycheck to paycheck." The Federal Reserve found that 54% of American households have emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, which means of course that almost half do not. However, the fanciful idea that the lowest income quartile can lift themselves out with "prudence" would only be publicly expressed by someone who has never seriously conversed with a member of that quartile. One morning -- just one -- of volunteer work at one's local food bank would promptly dismiss that idea forever, but one must be willing to expose oneself to real life for that to happen."
- Mike Gaynes
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The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
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Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
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Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Dick, the opinions and assertions you stated in your original post would have been just as valid (or invalid) years ago. Adjusting for inflation and the increase in the number of card holders, over time the average credit card balance has been flat for decades. In fact the percent of consumer credit card debt as a share of disposable income is lower than it was ten and even twenty years ago. In short, the type of consumer credit behavior that you would approve of, has improved ever so slightly the last thirty years. Despite the undeniable debt wastage you decry, I am saddened by - and "haughty" while not a bullseye hits close to the mark I'm afraid - the statement: “I think it can be summarized, in most cases, as poor financial planning and irresponsible behavior.” You nor I can, in all fairness, summarize "most" of the millions of cases and judge them as "irresponsible". Consider putting down the broad brush. Rest your ever-sensitive hackles. Walk with your beloved wife along the sandy Cape beach and let thoughts of credit cards, shopping carts, and social security recede with tide into the great ocean. With much care and respect, Mark"
- Retired
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Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"One part of living well, in my opinion!"
- Dave Melick
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You Heel!

"We visited Nova Scotia in May. We pretty much apologized for the adversarial political behavior whenever we were forced to disclose we were from the US. The uniform reply was something to the effect that "we know it's not you, because we used to visit there a lot, and everyone is so nice"."
- Jeff Bond
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A Place At The Table

"Yes, Andrew (and everyone), traveling while young shouldn’t be limited to those from well-off families but it takes an open mind on the part of the parents to let their children travel with non-family members, plus dedicated teachers or coaches to organize the fundraising. But it’s true that such trips, whether they are for sightseeing, attending classes or engaging in some kind of helping project, are life changing for the kids, usually teenagers."
- Linda Grady
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Blood Money

"I agree with you about KO but XOM is involved in climate deception since it knew about global warming risks 60 years ago and ranks as one of the top global greenhouse gas polluters."
- Nick Politakis
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Americans and their credit cards

"More than 60% of Americans self-report in surveys that they live needing their next paycheck to cover their monthly bills. This may be more a reflection of the economic pressure that working Americans feel at the gas pump, grocery store and doctor's office. A study by Bankrate instead placed that P-to-P figure at 34%, and pointed out the varying definitions of the term "paycheck to paycheck." The Federal Reserve found that 54% of American households have emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, which means of course that almost half do not. However, the fanciful idea that the lowest income quartile can lift themselves out with "prudence" would only be publicly expressed by someone who has never seriously conversed with a member of that quartile. One morning -- just one -- of volunteer work at one's local food bank would promptly dismiss that idea forever, but one must be willing to expose oneself to real life for that to happen."
- Mike Gaynes
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The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Truths

NO. 97: IT’S HARD to say “no” to our adult children if they get into financial trouble—which is why we should try to raise money-savvy kids. But how? Set a good example. Talk regularly about your own finances. Tell your kids about your lean early adult years. Involve them in family financial decisions. Encourage them to save up for larger purchases.

think

HABIT FORMATION. To improve our behavior—financial and otherwise—we need to turn our desired good behavior into habits. That might require doing the right thing daily for perhaps two months. To get through this transition period, helpful strategies include sharing our resolutions with others, visualizing our goals and automating our savings program.

act

RENT OUT YOUR HOME for 14 days or less each year. If you stay under this limit, you don’t have to pay taxes on the income you receive, though you also can’t deduct any expenses you incur. Such short-term rentals can be lucrative if, say, you live near a major annual sporting event or near a college where hotel rooms are in short supply during graduation.

Basics

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Spotlight: Taxes

ROTH Conversions and Fixed Rate Annuities

I am 65. I plan to execute ROTH conversions over the next 10 years before I hit  RMDs. Obviously, handling the taxes at the conversion is front and center, pay with cash on hand or take out from the conversion. I understand there is an option to ROTH convert into Fixed Annuities, where the bonus (15-18%) may cover the entire tax burden. The one I have looked at is a 5-year contract, then you can take the money and put it back into the market.

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Increased Deduction for Seniors

I have been following the passage of the new bill signed today. I thought the deduction was 6K for couples, but it is per person. Here is information on the specifics from an AI source:
The (bill) includes a significant tax break for older Americans, specifically a new $6,000 “bonus” deduction for those 65 and older. This deduction is targeted at those with modified adjusted gross incomes up to $75,000 for individual filers and $150,000 for joint filers.

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Managing Transitions: Best Practices for When a Practitioner Passes Away

On Friday, May 15,  I received the attached email Alert from the IRS Office of Professional Responsibility. The email topic, When a Practitioner Passes Away, is mostly focused directly at anyone subject to Circular 230 that practices before the IRS, typically attorneys, certified public accountants, enrolled agents and others who prepare tax returns for pay. I think it likely that every state also has their own additional laws and regulations regarding protection of your data.

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Tax estimation tools on Bogleheads Wiki

I recently came across the tax estimation tools page on the Bogleheads Wiki. I found the information and links useful and think it is likely that other HumbleDollar readers will also.
It was interesting to me to learn to that the AARP free tax calculator that I often use appears to be a licensed version of the current Dinkytown program referenced in the Wiki article with the Dinkytown version being updated more frequently and thus the Boglehead’s recommend over the licensed versions.

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Securing Lower Taxes

John Yeigh posted excellent information yesterday entitled Roth Conversion Opportunities Extended
Despite my feeling that I am fairly well conversed in this matter I still read everything I can, assuming correctly, that I don’t know everything. When reading the article below:
https://humbledollar.com/2023/01/securing-lower-taxes/
This line struck me:
Take earlier IRA distributions and invest that money in a taxable account. Subsequent gains would be taxed at lower capital gains tax rates. If held until death, the investments could receive a step-up in basis and pass income-tax-free to heirs.

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ID.me

I still help prepare tax returns for pay. As such I am required, among other things, to annually renew my preparer pin number.
I recently received the  following from the IRS in a email –
We have updated the Tax Professional PTIN System sign-in process for tax return preparers who have a Social Security number (SSN). You will now sign in using ID.me, a technology provider that conducts identity verification and credential management for access to IRS online services. 

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Spotlight: Quinn

No, it is not a scam

I was feeling sorry for myself recently. Connie’s health issues prevent us from traveling, even going to our Cape house for the time being. I said to myself, time really is running out.  We seem to be surrounded by illness. Two of our neighbors now in Florida have been taken seriously ill and can’t get home. My brother in law fell on ice and broke his wrist and arm. Connie, my cousin and a close friend are all undergoing cancer treatments. This retirement thing seems to be going down hill.  No, that’s not true at all. We are, in fact, experiencing life in older age. Nothing is really a surprise even though we may wish things to be a bit different. And then there is this overriding fact, no matter what, someone is dealing with far worse situations - like our friends in Florida.  We can afford and receive the health care we need, our out of pocket costs are minimal because of Medicare. That isn’t true for most Americans  I look back on our sixteen years of retirement with great joy. We visited 45 countries, saw and did amazing things, took several cruises, visited all the states and many national parks. Remodeled our vacation home. Bought my dream car (twice).  We’ve had the joy of watching our grandchildren grow up, spending lots of time with them and have the privilege of helping fund their college costs.  I chose when I retired. When we decided a three story house was no longer feasible, we found the ideal 55+ condo less than a mile away - no disruption to our lives.  Our financial situation is not what I ever expected it to be. It took decades to achieve - along with good fortune. I read the stories of retirees dependent on…
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Do retirees really struggle financially? Why and what to do?

I asked my friends AI, what percentage of pre-retirement income to retirees actually live on. Of course, most of the data is survey based. The answer was 66% on average.  A T. Rowe Price/NewRetirement survey found that, nearly three years into retirement, retirees report living on 66% of pre-retirement income on average—and 57% said they live as well or better than before.  A Goldman Sachs Asset Management survey showed retirees receive ~60% of pre-retirement wages on average, with high satisfaction (71%).  The Center for Retirement Research (CRR-Boston College) noted many retirees get by on less than 70%, with 4 in 10 on 60% or less. Bankrate analysis put the nationwide average at ~60%.  Interestingly, the needed percentage varies by income level. •  Low income (e.g., under ~$50k pre-retirement): •  Often need 80-104% replacement. •  JPMorgan (Chase data): ~104% for $30k households. •  Boston College CRR: ~80% target. •  Fidelity: Higher end (~80%+) for < $50k band.  •  Middle income (e.g., $50k-$150k): •  Typically 70-80%. •  T. Rowe Price: Around 73-77% across $50k-$150k, varying slightly by marital status. •  CRR: ~71% for middle group.  •  High income (e.g., $200k+): •  Often 55-70% (or lower). Social Security replaces a larger percentage for lower income. For someone earning $30,000 at FRA retirement, the replacement is about 55%. Forty percent replacement from Social Security is more typical.  So why do so many seniors claim to be struggle financially? Seniors feel they struggle due to a mix of real economic pressures: Fear of long-term care costs, inflation, but it is a myth retirees fully live on a fixed income (besides most Americans do not reliably receive a dedicated annual pay raise (merit, COLA, or performance-based) at their current job every year), inadequate savings and longevity are also key factors among those claiming to be struggling. …
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Why can’t more people plan for their retirement future?

I read daily about seniors who can’t pay their bills in retirement, who say it’s unfair for them to pay property taxes for schools, who say they deserve higher SS COLAs etc. Some people, through no fault of their own, because of uncontrollable misfortune, did not have the ability to save and build retirement income at whatever level they were throughout life. But those folks are far from the majority.  So what happened that after forty years of working so many seniors seem poorly positioned to live in retirement? We know retirement is coming (if we are lucky), we know inflation will always be with us, we know someday a spouse or partner will have to live on their own, we know taxes are a real thing living in a large society. We know or should that Social Security alone does not provide an adequate income.  I say we know all that, but might it be that many people don’t know or choose to ignore or apply wishful thinking?  I did a little research and found that people often avoid planning for retirement because it feels abstract, complicated, and easy to postpone. Immediate distractions may be short-term financial pressure, lack of clarity about how much they will need, and the assumption that they can “figure it out later” or keep working indefinitely. Some people are naturally more future-oriented because they find it easier to tolerate uncertainty, delay rewards, and think in systems rather than immediate events. Others are more present-focused because their environment rewards quick wins, and because the future feels too uncertain to plan around confidently. And some are so presently consumed with money issues, the future is not considered.  All this is a big mistake of course as the HD community knows well. For me, concern for the…
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FIFA Financials

Can any HD reader conceive of paying $5,000 and way more for a seat at a soccer match? Sorry, football. That seems to go against any financial logic. 😎 I wonder if such spending is on the budget spreadsheet?
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Is there any point when a child needs financial help that you feel comfortable saying “not my problem?” 

A question for discussion. Is an eighteen year old an adult? Do you expect an 18 year old to pay their bills, to be on their own for college? Several years ago on HD someone wrote in a comment that when their child reach age 18, they were done. They expected them out of the house and they were on their own.  Another wrote that when their youngest child graduated high school, the were relocating south and leaving the child behind.  One blogger I read who retired at 33 bragged that when his 11 year old asked if he was going to pay for her college, he told her no. Frankly, I don’t understand those points of view. In my view an 18-year old brain is not that of an adult. A child is the parents obligation until they are truly on their own, earning a living. Even then there are times when help is appropriate. And no, I am not talking about the 25 year old lounging in the basement playing video games all day.  I am especially convinced that to the extent feasible parents have a responsibility to pay for college.  In a recent post on HD from 2017 Jonathan wrote “Can you afford to help your kids with college costs? It’s important to talk to your teenagers early on about how much financial assistance you can offer—and that’s doubly true if they’ll need to shoulder much or all of the cost.” Wise advice indeed. Defining “afford” is critical. In my example of the 11 year old, the family takes three or four international trips a year.  Some families view college the same way they view housing, food, or healthcare while growing up—as part of supporting a child until they’re established. Others argue college is the student’s responsibility…
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What do we Americans want? We want “free” healthcare

As I review social media the angst over health care costs and insurance is apparent. Americans don’t like premiums, out of pocket costs, insurance companies or anyone interfering with their health care. Most people have no clue about the relationship between premiums, deductibles and out of pocket costs. One goes down the others must go up.  Americans want any and all services paid without question and they want it all “free.”   That’s quite a wish list. Oh yes, they also don’t want anything remotely looking like socialized medicine which some call Medicare. I always found it amazing how money spent on health care is always viewed as very different than the same amount of money spent on just about anything else. I learned this well from decades managing health plans and dealing with people.  Just think of the tens of thousands of fans spending small fortunes to attend the World Cup matches. It’s $250 just to take the train from NYC a few miles to the NJ stadium. Fugatabout what they spend on tickets, etc.   Then I imagine their reaction if a pharmacist told them the Rx copay was $250. The Rx may save their life, but it’s unaffordable. The soccer match gives then pleasure and is affordable even if it is on credit.  I don’t have an answer, I don’t know what Americans want or expect possible when paying for healthcare. However, I suspect what people may want is to hide all costs in taxes so when it comes to receiving healthcare, it will be “free” like in other countries. Good luck getting anyone to admit that though.  FYI The average net profit margin for health insurance companies 5-6% - among the lowest industry and if you took the compensation of the CEO of the largest insurer…
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