Adam is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. He advocates an evidence-based approach to personal finance. Adam has written more than 250 articles for HumbleDollar.
THE ENGLISH POET Alfred Tennyson wrote that it is “better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all.” When it comes to matters of the heart, maybe Tennyson was right. But when it comes to personal finance, I’m not sure that’s the case. If you’ve ever seen a gain slip through your fingers, you know the feeling of regret can be powerful.
Two conversations last week prompted me to take a closer look at this topic.
AT THE MUTUAL FUND company where I once worked, the stock and bond teams liked to poke fun at one another. Bond managers viewed the stock-pickers as overpaid storytellers. Meanwhile, the stock-pickers saw the world of bonds as stultifying. “Playing for nickels and dimes” is how one of them put it.
For better or worse, bonds do indeed represent the slow lane. But this year, with bond prices depressed by rising interest rates, investors are wanting to learn more.
THE MEGA MILLIONS drawing on Friday was worth more than $1 billion. Would you be happy if you’d been the lucky winner?
Last week, I talked about the Vanderbilts. Once the wealthiest family in America, they saw their fortune dwindle because of aggressive spending. Back in the 1890s, for example, the family spent $7 million building the Breakers, a summer home in Newport, Rhode Island. That’s the equivalent of $220 million today. When it was completed,
WHEN HE DIED IN 1877, Cornelius “Commodore” Vanderbilt was by far the wealthiest American, with a fortune of $100 million. In the 10 years after his death, his son William succeeded in further doubling those assets. It was an astonishing level of wealth. But that’s precisely when things began to turn.
One of Cornelius’s grandsons built the 125,000-square-foot Breakers mansion in Newport. Another commissioned Biltmore in North Carolina, which is still the largest home in America.
IN REFLECTING ON his life, Apple founder Steve Jobs noted that, “You can only connect the dots looking backward.” When we’re the authors of our own story, it’s all too easy to connect those dots in a way that’s most flattering to ourselves. But to be useful to the reader, a narrative must be honest—and it should start at the beginning.
My first money memory dates to the early 1980s. I was maybe 10 years old and sitting at the kitchen table with my father,
I RECEIVED A CALL last week from a college student who’d started a successful business. His school, he said, didn’t offer any practical courses in personal finance, so he asked my advice on investing.
We walked through nine key questions. I would offer the same advice to investors of any age.
1. Why should I expect stocks to go up? One way to answer this question would be to invoke the oft-quoted phrase that “history doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.” Stocks have delivered roughly 10% returns per year since reliable recordkeeping began in the 1920s.
U.S. STOCKS ARE DOWN almost 19% so far this year. The broad bond market, surprisingly, has also lost money, sliding almost 11%.
At times like this—when the headlines are almost all negative—the standard advice is to avoid panicking and stay focused on the long term. I agree with that, and indeed the data are clear: Investors who attempt to time the market with “tactical” trades often suffer whipsaw. But that doesn’t mean we should bury our heads in the sand.
A FEW WEEKS BACK, I mentioned Robert Shiller’s book Narrative Economics. His contention: Stories—to a surprising degree—often drive markets.
Similarly, the investment world is driven by a good number of sayings and aphorisms. Many of these are entertaining. Some are even useful. But they can also be tricky. Any time advice is delivered in a pithy phrase, it seems to carry extra credibility—as if it were a truth handed down from above.
I ARGUED LAST WEEK that bitcoin wasn’t a great investment. The reality: Only a minority of investors hold cryptocurrencies, which is a good thing, in my opinion. But there are, alas, many other ways to get off track when building a portfolio.
In fact, if I ever wrote an investment book, it might be in the style of Dr. Seuss and titled Oh, the Investments I’ve Seen. Want to build a sensible portfolio and avoid common pitfalls?
SINCE THE START of the year, the stock market has dropped almost 24%. That’s significant, but it pales next to the losses suffered by cryptocurrency investors, with the shellacking continuing into this weekend.
Dogecoin is down more than 90%, and smaller currencies like terra have lost essentially all their value. Even bitcoin and ethereum, which are much more established, have suffered big losses. Ethereum is down around 75% year-to-date, and bitcoin has fallen some 60%.
ROBERT SHILLER, in his book Narrative Economics, argues that stories can be a powerful force in moving markets—more so even than facts or data. Recently, I gained a better understanding of why that’s the case.
I was speaking with a fellow and, it seemed, we disagreed on nearly every topic. But the way he presented his arguments made them sound surprisingly persuasive. What I realized is that, in the world of finance,
THE INVESTMENT consulting firm Callan publishes its periodic table of investment returns each year. It shows the results of key asset classes on a year-by-year basis. Each asset class is color-coded and ranked from best to worst. This makes it easy to see not just annual performance, but also relative results.
The periodic table is valuable because it illustrates that there’s rarely a consistent pattern to relative returns from one year to the next.
A FEW WEEKS BACK, I discussed the notion of “the four horsemen of the investor apocalypse.” A concept proposed by Morningstar Managing Director Don Phillips, these are the factors that—in his experience—tend to lead investors off course. But what about success? What are the factors that contribute to success for investors?
“Investing,” says legendary investor Warren Buffett, “is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with a 130 IQ… You need to be smart,
IF YOU’VE TRIED TO buy a car or a home recently—or have even just been to the grocery store—I’m sure you’re aware how much prices have jumped over the past year. John Taylor certainly has an opinion on the topic.
Taylor is an economics professor at Stanford University. While not a household name, he’s a leader in economic circles. Before Jerome Powell was appointed Federal Reserve chair in 2018, Taylor was a candidate for that spot.
DON PHILLIPS is a former CEO of the research firm Morningstar. In a recent commentary, Phillips discussed what he called the “four horsemen of the investor apocalypse.” I hasten to add that Phillips isn’t predicting any kind of apocalypse. Rather, he wanted to highlight factors that can cause problems for investors. Phillips’s four horsemen are complexity, concentration, leverage and illiquidity. It’s worth taking a closer look at each, especially amid today’s rocky financial markets.
