Adam M. Grossman

A PLANE’S ALTIMETER measures the airplane’s altitude. It’s a critical instrument—so important, in fact, that planes are typically outfitted with two. That’s for redundancy, in case one fails. In addition, because different altimeters work better in different conditions, the two readings offer pilots multiple points of reference.
I was speaking recently with a retired pilot, who explained this to me and asked how he could apply the notion of redundancy to his finances. It was a good question,

OVER THE JULY FOURTH weekend, a friend asked me what I thought about the new financial instrument known as a “stock token.” Developed by the online broker Robinhood, a stock token is designed for investors to buy stakes in private companies such as OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT. It’s a novel concept because private company investments are typically inaccessible to individual investors.
Despite the appeal, I urged caution. Why? These tokens may not perform as expected because they aren’t the same as actual equity in a company.

ON DEC. 31, 1759, Arthur Guinness signed a lease to take over a defunct brewery in Dublin. What was unusual was the lease’s term: 9,000 years.
It didn’t take long before Guinness and his landlord both realized they’d made a mistake and agreed to end the lease. Guinness needed more space, and the landlord realized he’d neglected to account for inflation. The rent was fixed at £45 annually for the entire 9,000 years.
The Guinness case is notable because it’s so extreme,

IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, a leader in artificial intelligence, grabbed headlines. Amodei argued that the next generation of AI systems could replace half of entry-level jobs and drive up the unemployment rate to 20%. All of this could occur in the next five years, he said.
Recent data seem to support these glum predictions. Mark Zuckerberg said AI will be as capable as a mid-level programmer by the end of this year.

AT THE 2016 SUMMER Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, South Africa’s Chad Le Clos challenged Michael Phelps for the gold medal in the 200-meter butterfly. A famous image emerged from that event: Throughout the semifinal, Le Clos repeatedly looked over at Phelps as he struggled to keep up. Meanwhile, Phelps just kept looking forward. The result: Phelps ultimately won the gold, while Le Clos trailed in fourth place.
I believe there’s a parallel between what we saw in that race and what we see in the investment world.

STATISTICIAN GEORGE E.P. Box once made this observation: “All models are wrong,” he said, “but some are useful.” This certainly applies to finance, where many of the concepts are imperfect but can nonetheless still be useful. Below are four such examples.
Market valuation. Are stocks overpriced? It’s a question without an easy answer. Even academics who have studied the topic can never be entirely sure. Consider the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio.

LAST WEEK, I MENTIONED the 17th century Dutch tulip bubble. There’s a lot we can learn from history. Current events, however, can teach us just as much. Below are three valuable lessons I see in today’s market.
Myopia. Open any finance textbook, and you’ll find that most of its ideas are built on the notion of “present value.” This simply means an investment should be worth the sum of its future cash flows.

BITCOIN HIT A NEW high last week, topping $112,000. Over the past 12 months, it’s climbed an impressive 55%.
What’s driving this gain, and what should you make of it? I believe there are three key factors. Two are new. One is not.
The first factor was a policy change last year. The federal government approved the launch of new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that offer easier and more direct access to bitcoin. Following this rule change,

IF THE NAME LIZ TRUSS sounds vaguely familiar, there’s a reason: Truss was once the prime minister of the U.K.—but for just 45 days.
How did Truss lose public confidence so quickly? The bond market forced her out. Shortly after taking office in the fall of 2022, Truss proposed substantial tax cuts for both corporations and individuals. That would have been a popular move, except that her budget didn’t include any offsetting spending cuts.

WHEN HUMBLEDOLLAR’S editor was The Wall Street Journal’s longtime personal-finance columnist and his children were little, he often joked that he had a special incentive to see them succeed financially.
“It would be a tad embarrassing,” Jonathan wrote, if his children “grew up to be financial ne’er-do-wells.” For that reason, he used his own home as a laboratory of sorts, testing strategies to help set his children on the right financial path.

IT’S BEEN QUITE A YEAR for gold investors. While the stock market has struggled, gold hit a new all-time high, topping $3,500 per ounce just a few weeks ago.  Year-to-date, gold has gained nearly 30%, while the S&P 500 is in negative territory. This has certainly grabbed people’s attention—but does gold make sense for your portfolio?
To answer this question, let’s start by looking at the arguments favoring gold. Supporters typically point to two key attributes,

ABOUT 10 YEARS AGO, Steve Edmundson, manager of the Nevada state pension, became a folk hero in the investment world when The Wall Street Journal profiled him in an article titled, “What Does Nevada’s $35 Billion Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing.”
It was an exaggeration to say he did “nothing,” but Edmundson definitely did things differently. Since the 1980s, the trend among pension and endowment managers had been to follow in the footsteps of Yale University’s David Swensen.

FRENCH HISTORIAN Alexis de Tocqueville toured the U.S. in the 1830s and chronicled his observations in a book titled Democracy in America. What mainly impressed him was Americans’ focus on trade and commerce.
They have a “purely practical” mindset, he wrote, and concluded that “the position of the American is quite exceptional.” In the years since, others have picked up on this concept of “American exceptionalism.”
Despite recent political and economic crosscurrents,

IT’S BEEN AN UNUSUAL year—to say the least—for investment markets. After rising earlier in the year, U.S. stocks and bonds have dropped in recent weeks. Market leaders like Apple and Nvidia have been among the hardest hit. The U.S. dollar has also dropped, helping boost the value of international shares, and gold has continued to hit new all-time highs, despite inflation cooling.
What can we learn from all this? I see seven lessons.
1.

YOU MAY BE FAMILIAR with Peter Lynch. In the 1970s and ‘80s, he was one of the most visible figures in the investment world. As manager of Fidelity Magellan Fund, he achieved the best track record, by far, among his peers. He shared his wisdom in a series of popular books for individual investors.
Among the ideas for which Lynch is best known is the notion of “diworsification.” As its name suggests, Lynch argued that diversification simply for the sake of diversification isn’t always a good thing.